(03-21-2021, 05:10 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Let's talk draft strategy.


I put together a spreadsheet out of curiosity and went back to the 2015 NFL draft. I used the playoff teams from last season as my guide and tracked every 1st rounder they made by position.

Including years with multiple 1st round selections there was a total of 93 picks made.

Here is how it breaks down.

19 trades - 20.4%

10 QBs - 10.8%

10 Edge Rushers - 10.8%

9 OT - 9.7%

9 LB - 9.7%

8 CB - 8.6%

7 WR - 7.5%

6 DT - 6.5%

5 S - 5.4%

3 RBs - 3.2%

3 TE - 3.2%

3 C - 3.2%

1 OG - 1.1%



So as you look at the trends of teams that win and make the playoffs explain to me how you do anything with the pick that isn't a trade, a QB, and edge or an OT. Unless you just want another losing season... if you want more losing, go get the TE and we can do this top 5 dance again next season.

Lol your post translate to take the lowest percentage because the likelyhood of getting a good player at that position is less likely than one of the higher percentage.

You draft a player not a percentage rate.

(03-21-2021, 05:25 PM)Synric Wrote: Lol your post translate to take the lowest percentage because the likelyhood of getting a good player at that position is less likely than one of the higher percentage.

You draft a player not a percentage rate.

I just view it as, the smartest teams trade draft picks for knowns, like players the Steelers did, the bears did, etc, etc...

or the smart teams move all around the draft and add more picks to increase the odds of hitting on players of need.

If the Bengals stay at 5 and take a WR or TE, they'll be sitting in the top 10 of draft position again in 2022. 

Sewell makes sense, hard to miss on a talent like that. If they can't get him, they need to be smart and move out of 5 and get more picks.

(03-21-2021, 05:32 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I just view it as, the smartest teams trade draft picks for knowns, like players the Steelers did, the bears did, etc, etc...

or the smart teams move all around the draft and add more picks to increase the odds of hitting on players of need.

If the Bengals stay at 5 and take a WR or TE, they'll be sitting in the top 10 of draft position again in 2022. 

Sewell makes sense, hard to miss on a talent like that. If they can't get him, they need to be smart and move out of 5 and get more picks.

Technically Penei Sewell is a bigger risk as a prospect than Rashawn Slater or even Christian Darrisaw.

Our 1st rounders have not had good full seasons in a bit of time. How many games have they played in their rookie years? It was something crazy low, with Burrow at the top of the list in games played. He is was a slam dunk pick as the Bengals picked #1OA. When they think, they do bad, be it O-Line or not.

By this metric, the O-Line should be picked up in 6th or 7th round and fill a less needed position in the 1st. If they are such bad talent readers, wouldn't we also get a poor cornerback in the first...of yeah, we do that too. Klingler and Akili Smith doesn't mean Burrow shouldn't be picked. Sewell is no slam dunk but he is the pick that makes the most sense. As well as he is viewed and the position that many see as being the Bengals biggest deficiency, it works. If you draft a TE who ends up getting injured/sucks, you still have O-line for no reason. The other way, at least you tried, like Jonah

(03-21-2021, 05:37 PM)Synric Wrote: Technically Penei Sewell is a bigger risk as a prospect than Rashawn Slater or even Christian Darrisaw.

And you know I'd take both of them in a heartbeat as well.

I feel like you and I were both big on Darrisaw, who we could trade down, get an extra 2nd and still be in position for Darrisaw or Slater.

Again... my stance remains, the smart teams trade, often. So, moving down getting a 2nd and getting Slater or Darrisaw is a huge win over taking any WR or Pitts at 5. And if Sewell is gone at 5, then one of the top 3 QBs should be on the board that teams will want to come get.

(03-21-2021, 05:32 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I just view it as, the smartest teams trade draft picks for knowns, like players the Steelers did, the bears did, etc, etc...

or the smart teams move all around the draft and add more picks to increase the odds of hitting on players of need.

If the Bengals stay at 5 and take a WR or TE, they'll be sitting in the top 10 of draft position again in 2022. 

Sewell makes sense, hard to miss on a talent like that. If they can't get him, they need to be smart and move out of 5 and get more picks.

You realize Sewell did not have  to.face the most elite talent when he played at Oregon 17 months ago.
Kyle Pitts on.the grand scale went up.against better competition in the SEC. And he.didnt sit out a year

(03-21-2021, 05:42 PM)impactplaya Wrote: You realize Sewell did not have  to.face the most elite talent when he played at Oregon 17 months ago.
Kyle Pitts on.the grand scale went up.against better competition in the SEC. And he.didnt sit out a year

Sweet... so let's just pass on him since he didn't play against elite talent..

And cut Boyd since at Pitt he didn't play against great teams.

And dump Mixon since the Big 12 doesn't play defense.

Do you realize that since 1980 not a single TE was taken top 5 in an NFL draft?

The closest to be picked in top 5 was Vernon Jordan at number 6. I think it is fair to say Ole Vernon never quite met the expectations.


But for some reason people see Pitts as a better TE than Winslow, Newsome, Sharpe, Gonzales, Gronk, Kittle, and Kelce - none of whom were taking in top 5 of NFL draft.

There is a reason why no Tight End has been taken in first 5 picks of NFL draft in FORTY years: the value is not there.

Stop the insanity...

Burrow is the franchise... you must protect him.

or draft Pitts and be amazed how average he looks catching passes from Brandon Allen.

(03-21-2021, 03:02 PM)Whatever Wrote: If we're speaking philosophically, that approach doesn't work.  

The Bengals have drafted 6 OL in the first this century(Levi Jones, Andre Smith, Kevin Zeitler, Cedric Ogbuehi, Billy Price, and Jonah Williams).  The average for a playoff team this past year in that same span is 3-4.    The only playoff team that drafted 6 OL in the first through that same period was Seattle.  The Patriots are a team often cited as an example and they've only taken 3, half of what we have.

What compounds the issue for the Bengals is they are frankly bad at OL talent evaluation.  If you're drafting a player in the 1st, your hope is that they will be a multi time Pro Bowl type player.  Of those 6 picks, none have been to a Pro Bowl.  Only 2(Jones, Zeitler) were quality starters as rookies, just as many as those that were total busts(Ogbuehi, Price).  1st round picks are a precious resource and we repeatedly spend them on a position group where our best results are solid-good starters, not elite franchise cornerstone type players and we get get nothing out of 2/3 of them as rookies.  

You can make cases for Sewell as a better talent or as a bigger need.  However, taking him due to a romanticized "build through the trenches" draft philosophy that requires you to constantly dump 1st round picks into the OL isn't logical because we've literally done that for the last two decades and it has been proven not to work.

You do know that 
A) There are 31 other teams in the NFL
B) Cincinnati does not have a GM, they have Mike Brown. Tobin is only the Director of Player Personnel
C) Every other year it would most likely be a 2nd round pick
D) Guys that are underwhelming wouldn't get a 2nd contract. Guys that pan out, would hopefully be re-signed
E) NFL teams aren't hiring guys off of internet message boards

(03-21-2021, 05:32 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: If the Bengals stay at 5 and take a WR or TE, they'll be sitting in the top 10 of draft position again in 2022.

Man, you must be REALLY high on Sewell.

If you're basing our overall performance off that one pick, to the point where we if we go elsewhere we're destined to fail, that must be you think he's coming in and playing at a Pro Bowl level immediately.

To each their own, but I think a lot of people might be disappointed in year 1.  Their expectations are entirely way too high for a 20 year old kid with only 20 starts in college.

(03-21-2021, 05:51 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Man, you must be REALLY high on Sewell.

If you're basing our overall performance off that one pick, to the point where we if we go elsewhere we're destined to fail, that must be you think he's coming in and playing at a Pro Bowl level immediately.

To each their own, but I think a lot of people might be disappointed in year 1.  Their expectations are entirely way too high for a 20 year old kid with only 20 starts in college.

Sewell, Slater or Darrisaw coming in means that Jordan isn't starting at Guard. That is what I am high on. I'm all in on making sure Burrow doesn't need a 2nd knee surgery.

I don't understand how people think you can draft Chase or Pitts and then trot Jordan out there at G and think it will be all good.

Right now you have XSF and Jordan as starters... that is beyond terrible by NFL standards. If you waste a pick in round 1 on TE/WR you now have to go O-line in round 2. And maybe you replace Jordan? Maybe... then you hit round 3, and if you go to replace XSF, you now ignored the edge rusher position we need.

There is too many holes to fix in one draft. So, if you have to pick what holes to fix, plug the holes that keep Burrow healthy. I can't understand why people want this kid under-siege again every snap.... it is just madness.


For Sewell at 6'6" and 331 pounds, you can stick him at G (like we did with Whitworth) and let him maul people for a season and just develop while keeping Burrow safe.

(03-21-2021, 05:47 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Sweet... so let's just pass on him since he didn't play against elite talent..

And cut Boyd since at Pitt he didn't play against great teams.

And dump Mixon since the Big 12 doesn't play defense.

Do you realize that since 1980 not a single TE was taken top 5 in an NFL draft?

The closest to be picked in top 5 was Vernon Jordan at number 6. I think it is fair to say Ole Vernon never quite met the expectations.


But for some reason people see Pitts as a better TE than Winslow, Newsome, Sharpe, Gonzales, Gronk, Kittle, and Kelce - none of whom were taking in top 5 of NFL draft.

There is a reason why no Tight End has been taken in first 5 picks of NFL draft in FORTY years: the value is not there.

Stop the insanity...

Burrow is the franchise... you must protect him.

or draft Pitts and be amazed how average he looks catching passes from Brandon Allen.

You realize Penai has a small sample size coming out of Oregon? 
I.dont have a list in.front of me but you tell me what great DEs
Sewell faced in college and that he shut down that day.

Don't give me that jive about a TE not taken in.the top 5 since 1980. 
Guess what....in 1980 there wasnt a QB that passed for 3,000
Yds and rushed for a 1,000 in a single season..
But its happened

There wasnt any 4 2 5 defensive alignments in 1980.
Now it's a base defense for some teams.

There wasnt a pistol formation in 1980. Now there is.

QBs were under center in 1980 too. Unless it was a obvious passing  down....
Now every QB is in a shotgun/ pistol formation.

Your so stuck in the past. Now go back and play your Atari 2600
And don't forget to clean.your VCR tonight.so.you can record
Silver Spoons or the Dukes of Hazard

(03-21-2021, 06:06 PM)impactplaya Wrote: You realize Penai has a small sample size coming out of Oregon? 
I.dont have a list in.front of me but you tell me what great DEs
Sewell faced in college and that he shut down that day.

Don't give me that jive about a TE not taken in.the top 5 since 1980. 
Guess what....in 1980 there wasnt a QB that passed for 3,000
Yds and rushed for a 1,000 in a single season..
But its happened

There wasnt any 4 2 5 defensive alignments in 1980.
Now it's a base defense for some teams.

There wasnt a pistol formation in 1980. Now there is.

QBs were under center in 1980 too. Unless it was a obvious passing  down....
Now every QB is in a shotgun/ pistol formation.

Your so stuck in the past. Now go back and play your Atari 2600
And don't forget to clean.your VCR tonight.so.you can record
Silver Spoons or the Dukes of Hazard

Here's a fun past for you.

Burrow had his season ended do to a shit O-line that has made only 1 change on it since last season and that change wasn't the player that led to him getting hurt.

So **** off with your let's draft Pitts and pray some 3rd round O-line guy can come in and suddenly improve everything. Meanwhile people who actually know football and get paid to break down games and film all look at Sewell and compare him to Munoz.... 

oh I forgot, he is old and irrelevant too....

Football has changed a lot over the years, but one thing has never changed. The teams with the best lines on offense and defense... win.

(03-21-2021, 05:59 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Sewell, Slater or Darrisaw coming in means that Jordan isn't starting at Guard. That is what I am high on. I'm all in on making sure Burrow doesn't need a 2nd knee surgery.

I don't understand how people think you can draft Chase or Pitts and then trot Jordan out there at G and think it will be all good.

Right now you have XSF and Jordan as starters... that is beyond terrible by NFL standards. If you waste a pick in round 1 on TE/WR you now have to go O-line in round 2. And maybe you replace Jordan? Maybe... then you hit round 3, and if you go to replace XSF, you now ignored the edge rusher position we need.

There is too many holes to fix in one draft. So, if you have to pick what holes to fix, plug the holes that keep Burrow healthy. I can't understand why people want this kid under-siege again every snap.... it is just madness.


For Sewell at 6'6" and 331 pounds, you can stick him at G (like we did with Whitworth) and let him maul people for a season and just develop while keeping Burrow safe.

Michael Jordan is not a starter. I.dont.know where you got.that.from

Anyone else find it rather curious that after not one, but two fan polls on the very same topic, the results are overwhelmingly in favor of the Bengals drafting Penei Sewell, yet we are still having this discussion?

Why is that??

http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-Chase-vs-Sewell?pid=1004644#pid1004644

(03-21-2021, 05:25 PM)Synric Wrote: Lol your post translate to take the lowest percentage because the likelyhood of getting a good player at that position is less likely than one of the higher percentage.

You draft a player not a percentage rate.

The whole post is a terrible illogical mess.  

He's doing pick percentages on a 6 year sample size.  So 1 pick=16% of a team's allocated draft picks for that period.

The % of T's the playoff teams took in the 1st is 10%.  So, the average # of OT's the playoff teams from this year took in the 1st in that span is less than 2/3. They don't even average out to each team taking 1 T in the 1st over a 6 year span. He then tries to use this to support drafting a 3rd OT in 7 years.

I mean, it's totally fine to want Sewell.  He's a great prospect at a position where we need help.  However, people shouldn't be trying to argue that good teams "build through the trenches" and just draft OL in the first over and over again, because that's not what they do.  Truthfully, if you draft any position group in the 1st over and over, your team is going to struggle.

(03-21-2021, 06:15 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Here's a fun past for you.

Burrow had his season ended do to a shit O-line that has made only 1 change on it since last season and that change wasn't the player that led to him getting hurt.

So **** off with your let's draft Pitts and pray some 3rd round O-line guy can come in and suddenly improve everything. Meanwhile people who actually know football and get paid to break down games and film all look at Sewell and compare him to Munoz.... 

oh I forgot, he is old and irrelevant too....

Football has changed a lot over the years, but one thing has never changed. The teams with the best lines on offense and defense... win.

Munoz played 4 years at USC and didnt.sit out a year either. 

(03-21-2021, 06:17 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Michael Jordan is not a starter. I.dont.know where you got.that.from

Who are the 2 starting guards at this very moment?

(03-21-2021, 06:17 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Michael Jordan is not a starter. I.dont.know where you got.that.from

Ummm... yes he actually is at the moment.

See the Bengals website and see the 4 and only 4 players on the roster who are Guards:

Hakeem Adeniji

Michael Jordan

Xavier Su'a-Filo

Keaton Sutherland



So, not sure what imaginary player you have at Guard on this team....

Price is at Center which is also terrifying since Hopkins is recovering from a week 17 injury.

The two place on the O-line you can be comfortable with, Jonah (if he stays healthy for the first season ever) and Reiff (who is only here for one year).

And all of that above, is why you take Sewell, Slater, or Darrisaw and still go O-line in round 2.

Where's Mike Brown and what have you done with him? The odds of him leaving it up to me are about the same as a chest of gold getting picked up by a tornado and dropping right at my feet and myself not getting injured in the least.. 

(03-21-2021, 05:37 PM)Synric Wrote: Technically Penei Sewell is a bigger risk as a prospect than Rashawn Slater or even Christian Darrisaw.

All 3 of them are at risk for missing the season due to injury if drafted by the Bengals in the first round. It's kinda a trend at this point.