(03-25-2021, 08:39 PM)Waite Hoyt Wrote: Your giving up a 3rd essentially to ensure you get a second first round talent on the offensive line. I think it would be very well worth the price.

The hit percentage on late first round picks and early second round picks isn't a huge difference. You have roughly the same percent to hit. Not to mention we are highly successful at drafting in the third round compared to other teams. This trade isn't worth it. 

(03-26-2021, 08:49 PM)CincinnatiBengals55 Wrote: The hit percentage on late first round picks and early second round picks isn't a huge difference. You have roughly the same percent to hit. Not to mention we are highly successful at drafting in the third round compared to other teams. This trade isn't worth it. 

What are those percentages respectively, how is hit/miss defined, source?

(03-26-2021, 09:45 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I really hate when I hear that about the Bengals being interested in someone.
The way it sounds is the Bengals made some mediocre offer, the player got a better one, and the Bengals weren't willing to higher than that.

I heard somewhere that they felt like the available guards after Thuney and Scherff were just guys and that Spain was a better value.  IDK about that, but it's believable.  

Does anyone else get the feeling that the organization still relies heavily on the advice of Paul Alexander when evaluating OL?

(03-26-2021, 08:49 PM)CincinnatiBengals55 Wrote: Not to mention we are highly successful at drafting in the third round compared to other teams.

(03-25-2021, 10:14 PM)Synric Wrote: Jay Morrison said some interesting things about Free Agency. The Bengals did their homework on Trai Turner but felt Quinton Spain was the better option. They were also in on both Kevin Zeitler and Matt Feiler.

That gives me hope that they have functioning brains in the building. 

(03-26-2021, 08:56 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: What are those percentages respectively, how is hit/miss defined, source?

The source is just me. I am just amazed and in love with the NFL draft so I evaluate prospects, analyze (for some), project, comp them and it's basically a personal hobby for me. It's always fun to look back and see how they've turned out. Obviously over time you notice trends and little things regarding the draft that you didn't notice before. You find things that at first glance don't matter but a half inch here or this many lbs here truly does matter in some of these guys draft cases and it is especially interesting when the outliers to these come because you are always looking to find what made this guy different then the trend. So regarding hit and miss, I just divide them into categories of Hit, Miss, and meh. Meh just means below expectations but not necessarily a miss. For example, Darqueze Dennard would be considered a meh. He was below expectations for what we expect in a first round pick but he found a nice little role in the slot and performed decent/well there. I separate it into expectations based on where you were drafted. The first 3 rounds it is 1-10, 11-20, 21-32. Then day 4 is slotted by draft numbers but by rounds, so just 4th round, 5tth round etc. 


To go back to my original post I am going to select the 2017 draft. 
Late first (20-32)
Garrett Bolles: Hit
Jarrad Davis: Miss, his performance aligns with an expected early-mid third round LB 
Charles Harris: Miss 
Evan Engram: Meh, Little below expectations, shown flashes, been injured. Grade TBD/Meh
Gareon Conley: Miss, not bad by any means but isn't showing the consistency of an expected first round corner. 
Jabrill Peppers: Meh, 
Takk Mckinley: Meh, not consistent but shown flashes. 
Tredavious White: Hit
Taco Charleton: Miss
David Njoku: Miss
TJ Watt: Hit
Rueben Foster: Miss
Ryan Ramcyzck: Hit

Hit:  4    Meh:   3   Miss: 6

Early Second (33-43)
Kevin King: Meh, Perfect example is comparing Kevin King and Gareon Conley. One was a miss and one was a meh with similar performance but one was first round and one was second round. Kevin King would be a miss if drafted in the first. 
Cam Robinson: Meh, debatable could be hit but safe side we'll say meh
Malik Mcdowell: Miss
Budda Baker: Hit
Zay Jones: Miss
Forrest Lamp: Miss
Marcus Maye: Hit
Curtis Samuel: Hit
Dalvin Cook: Hit
Sidney Jones: Miss

Hit 4   Meh    1   Miss 5

When determining these it is pretty straight forward as we can see.  In this draft the second round picks had a higher hit% than the late first round picks but obviously every draft is different and in most drafts the trends show only a slight increase in % for late first as opposed to early second.  I would appreciate it if you looked at this list and told me the ones you disagreed with in these categories just to get your opinion and see your reasoning but most of them are pretty straight forward. Hopefully I answered your question and if you have any more questions or concerns I'd love to answer them. At the end of the day I am not a professional or verified or anything like that, I'm just a fan like you so if you want to rule my takes about hit % and all that as invalid based on that I completely understand but I'm glad I could share a little bit with you. 

(03-26-2021, 09:04 PM)samhain Wrote: I heard somewhere that they felt like the available guards after Thuney and Scherff were just guys and that Spain was a better value.  IDK about that, but it's believable.  

Does anyone else get the feeling that the organization still relies heavily on the advice of Paul Alexander when evaluating OL?

I'm happy to have Spain back. Outside of a handful of guys like Thuney and Zeitler I think he can be just as good as the rest of available guys. At least with Spain compared to the mid to low tier FA prospects you have a guy that has half of season experience with our guys. I tend to agree I think he'll be better with a full offseason (especially non-Covid shortened offseason) working with our guys.

Can't lie though we still need one more G and for the draft I'd prefer to leave it open enough to not feel forced into a specific position.

I feel like Spain probably takes one G spot then you have XSF, Jordan, and FA/Draft pick competing for the other G spot.

Any word about a center yet?

(03-26-2021, 11:58 PM)CarolinaBengalFanGuy Wrote: I'm happy to have Spain back. Outside of a handful of guys like Thuney and Zeitler I think he can be just as good as the rest of available guys. At least with Spain compared to the mid to low tier FA prospects you have a guy that has half of season experience with our guys. I tend to agree I think he'll be better with a full offseason (especially non-Covid shortened offseason) working with our guys.

Can't lie though we still need one more G and for the draft I'd prefer to leave it open enough to not feel forced into a specific position.

I feel like Spain probably takes one G spot then you have XSF, Jordan, and FA/Draft pick competing for the other G spot.

Spain is paid like a backup, not a starter.

I think it is likely we pick 2 OL in the first 3 rounds. Be it 1st & 3rd or 2nd & 3rd. 

Jonah, Reiff, and Hopkins are starters.

If we take Sewell (or Slater), then he starts, and XSF, Spain, Jordan, and the assumed 2nd OL pick fight for the last spot.

I have to think Leatherwood and/or Davis walk into the starting lineup as well. 

The Rd 3 pick could also end up being another WR, a LB, or DL, depending on how FA pans out. But OL & WR/TE have to be 1 & 2.

(03-27-2021, 01:39 AM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Spain is paid like a backup, not a starter.

I think it is likely we pick 2 OL in the first 3 rounds. Be it 1st & 3rd or 2nd & 3rd. 

Jonah, Reiff, and Hopkins are starters.

If we take Sewell (or Slater), then he starts, and XSF, Spain, Jordan, and the assumed 2nd OL pick fight for the last spot.

I have to think Leatherwood and/or Davis walk into the starting lineup as well. 

The Rd 3 pick could also end up being another WR, a LB, or DL, depending on how FA pans out. But OL & WR/TE have to be 1 & 2.

Spain wouldn't come here to be a backup... at the very least he is coming here to compete with a 50-50 chance to win the starting job. 

(03-26-2021, 10:19 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote:

Yeaaah...

Logan Wilson
Germaine Pratt
Sam Hubbard
Malik Jefferson
Jordan Willis
Nick Vigil
Tyler Kroft
Paul Dawson
Will Clarke
Shawn Williams
Mohamed Sanu
Brandon Thompson
Dontay Moch

That's the last 10 drafts of Bengals 3rd rounders. You have a couple decent role players (Hubbard, Williams, Sanu) but 0 game changers or even really good players. Also an absolute brutal graveyard of bad LBs.

(03-27-2021, 11:28 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Yeaaah...

Logan Wilson
Germaine Pratt
Sam Hubbard
Malik Jefferson
Jordan Willis
Nick Vigil
Tyler Kroft
Paul Dawson
Will Clarke
Shawn Williams
Mohamed Sanu
Brandon Thompson
Dontay Moch

That's the last 10 drafts of Bengals 3rd rounders. You have a couple decent role players (Hubbard, Williams, Sanu) but 0 game changers or even really good players. Also an absolute brutal graveyard of bad LBs.

Yuck.

You might have to go all the way back to Chris Henry to find a really good 3rd rounder for us.

(03-26-2021, 11:02 AM)Au165 Wrote: ...or it was a guaranteed money issue similar to what we have seen all FA. Feiler had 66% of his contract guaranteed, the organization usually tries to limit their exposure to guarantees on multi-year deals to give them flexibility. The Bengals are usually in the neighborhood of 25%-30% on guarantees in multi-year contracts. I am sure they were willing to meet the total money demands of all of the guys we have seen all FA, heck we essentially gave Hendrickson the same value as Lawson, but the difference is structure and specifically guaranteed money. 

Its been this way for many years, and as far as I know, the Bengals are the only team with such a philosophy.

(03-26-2021, 12:16 PM)ochocincos Wrote: If I recall correctly, the Bengals' argument for not offering as much guaranteed money is that they are more likely to keep players through most/all of their contracts compared to other teams, so the total money is essentially mostly guaranteed.
But players don't like that approach, and now they are seeing the Bengals cut players early, so guaranteed money becomes more important.

This way of doing business hurts us in multiple ways. For one, it limits who we can sign in free agency. Secondly - if we keep players through the end of contract - it means we keep dead weight at a high price.

That's something that has really hurt us in the past (think of when we kept a washed up Leon Hall at 9 million). That said, we just cut Geno and traded Dunlap last season, so maybe they've changed that philosophy.

But then that means there's even less incentive for free agents to sign for less guaranteed money.

(03-27-2021, 11:28 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Yeaaah...

Logan Wilson
Germaine Pratt
Sam Hubbard
Malik Jefferson
Jordan Willis
Nick Vigil
Tyler Kroft
Paul Dawson
Will Clarke
Shawn Williams
Mohamed Sanu
Brandon Thompson
Dontay Moch

That's the last 10 drafts of Bengals 3rd rounders. You have a couple decent role players (Hubbard, Williams, Sanu) but 0 game changers or even really good players. Also an absolute brutal graveyard of bad LBs.

13 guys listed. Too early to tell on Wilson (who I think will be good) and Pratt (more dubious).

Sanu, Williams, and Hubbard are all good picks. So 3/11. Not much else. Vigil is still in the league, isn't he?

(03-27-2021, 03:08 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: 13 guys listed. Too early to tell on Wilson (who I think will be good) and Pratt (more dubious).

Sanu, Williams, and Hubbard are all good picks. So 3/11. Not much else. Vigil is still in the league, isn't he?

Yeah, Vigil is supposed to be signing with the Vikings

(03-27-2021, 11:28 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Yeaaah...

Logan Wilson
Germaine Pratt
Sam Hubbard
Malik Jefferson
Jordan Willis
Nick Vigil
Tyler Kroft
Paul Dawson
Will Clarke
Shawn Williams
Mohamed Sanu
Brandon Thompson
Dontay Moch

That's the last 10 drafts of Bengals 3rd rounders. You have a couple decent role players (Hubbard, Williams, Sanu) but 0 game changers or even really good players. Also an absolute brutal graveyard of bad LBs.

3rd round picks of the team that has dominated the NFL the last decade:

Jake Bequette

Logan Ryan
Duron Harmon
Geneo Grissom
Joe Thuney
jacoby Brisset
Vincent Valentine
Derek Rivers
Antonio Garcia
Chase Winovich
Damien Harris
Yondey Cajuste
Anfernee Jennings
Devin Asiasi
Dalton Keene

2-3 starting caliber players

I have been wondering if Bengals saved cap room expecting some good players to still be released. Jarran Reed anyone?

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/03/26/seahawks-make-jarran-reeds-release-official/

(03-27-2021, 05:31 PM)yang Wrote: I have been wondering if Bengals saved cap room expecting some good players to still be released.   Jarran Reed anyone?

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/03/26/seahawks-make-jarran-reeds-release-official/

I know nada about that player specifically, but the idea we may be holding our powder dry expecting more cuts to come (especially after the draft) is a sound one.

Not to dis what is left out there, but why throw cash at trash just because you have the cash? No hurry. Trash will still be available later if better players do not get released.

FWIW, last 10 years of firsts and seconds:

Firsts:
2020: Joe Burrow
2019: Jonah Williams
2018: Billy Price
2017: John Ross
2016: William Jackson II
2015: Cedric Ogbuehi
2014: Darqueze Dennard
2013: Tyler Eifert
2012: Dre Kirkpatrick; Kevin Zeitler
2011: AJ Green

Still with team = 3. Longest serving 1st rounder on roster is Price. Guys who signed a 2nd contract? AJ for sure. Eifert?

Seconds:
2020: Tee Higgins
2019: Drew Sample
2018: Jessie Bates
2017: Joe Mixon
2016: Tyler Boyd
2015: Jake Fisher
2014: Jeremy Hill
2013: Giovanni Bernard, Margus Hunt
2012: Devon Still
2011: Andy Dalton

Still with team = 6.

(03-27-2021, 08:17 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: FWIW, last 10 years of firsts and seconds:

Firsts:
2020: Joe Burrow
2019: Jonah Williams
2018: Billy Price
2017: John Ross
2016: William Jackson II
2015: Cedric Ogbuehi
2014: Darqueze Dennard
2013: Tyler Eifert
2012: Dre Kirkpatrick; Kevin Zeitler
2011: AJ Green

Still with team = 3. Longest serving 1st rounder on roster is Price. Guys who signed a 2nd contract? AJ for sure. Eifert?

Seconds:
2020: Tee Higgins
2019: Drew Sample
2018: Jessie Bates
2017: Joe Mixon
2016: Tyler Boyd
2015: Jake Fisher
2014: Jeremy Hill
2013: Giovanni Bernard, Margus Hunt
2012: Devon Still
2011: Andy Dalton

Still with team = 6.

First rounders that signed 2nd contracts would be AJ, Dre, Eifert, and Dennard.