In light of this thread - http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-Who-have-you-been-most-wrong-on

It got me thinking how often we are SO SURE, but oops were wrong.

In various threads, either people here or quoted "experts" have used the phrase Generational Talent to describe one of the three:

Pitts - good but not spectacular production
Chase - one year
Sewell - one year

Not everyone or every time, but it's a phrase that's been used for all three.  We get over hyped by a player and their measurables.  History tells us that at least one and maybe all three won't live up to the hype or might down right bust.  If you say differently you're lying to yourself because it happens.  Because to be that guy you need the ENTIRE package.  Head, heart, talent, work ethic, intelligence, attitude, spirit.  And we cannot know if any of the above have all those things because we can't know their heads and hearts.

So based upon what you know and assuming one or all three may bust.  Pick your poison.  There is no none of the above option.  You must pick at least one.

(04-02-2021, 11:47 AM)Stewy Wrote: In light of this thread - http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-Who-have-you-been-most-wrong-on

It got me thinking how often we are SO SURE, but oops were wrong.

In various threads, either people here or quoted "experts" have used the phrase Generational Talent to describe one of the three:

Pitts - good but not spectacular production
Chase - one year
Sewell - one year

Not everyone or every time, but it's a phrase that's been used for all three.  We get over hyped by a player and their measurables.  History tells us that at least one and maybe all three won't live up to the hype or might down right bust.  If you say differently you're lying to yourself because it happens.  Because to be that guy you need the ENTIRE package.  Head, heart, talent, work ethic, intelligence, attitude, spirit.  And we cannot know if any of the above have all those things because we can't know their heads and hearts.

So based upon what you know and assuming one or all three may bust.  Pick your poison.  There is no none of the above option.  You must pick at least one.

Good poll Stewey.  I don't believe any of the 3 will be the mythical "Generational Talent" that the experts say just because it is that rare and not "Yearly" or "Really Uncommon Talents".  I think all 3 will be very, very good players but not "Generational".  Hell, the last "Generational Talent" at TE is still playing!

Reality is, it is all a crap shoot. How many 1st round picks had all the measurables, yet failed miserably or had mediocre careers in the NFL. Sewell is a question mark. Chase is a question mark. Pitts is a question mark. They may all be great, they may all be 1st round busts. Simple as that.

It's all about UPSIDE and that's why folks reach.

For instance Sewell is upside huge/young and one great season. Meanwhile Darrisaw has done it at the highest level for numerous years against much stiffer opponents. But folks find "holes" because there's more tape

Same with Rashad Bateman v. Jamarr Chase

Now Pitts.....I got nothing for you; except Brevin Jordan would be a lot closer if not forinjury history

(04-02-2021, 12:17 PM)bfine32 Wrote: It's all about UPSIDE and that's why folks reach.

For instance Sewell is upside huge/young and one great season. Meanwhile Darrisaw has done it at the highest level for numerous years against much stiffer opponents. But folks find "holes" because there's more tape

Same with Rashad Bateman v. Jamarr Chase

Now Pitts.....I got nothing for you; except Brevin Jordan would be a lot closer if not forinjury history

Yeah I think it is safe to rule Pitts out of the bust discussion. If one of the players is going to bust it'll be Chase or Sewell since neither has much experience. 

Doing drills is nice... and gets message boards and twitter all excited, but that is in shorts. What you need is two or three good years of tape to see growth and development. In that area, Pitts wins.

Also, since it is nearly certain Chase is going to the Bengals at 5, his odds to be injured or bust have to increase dramatically... cause... Bengals.

(04-02-2021, 11:47 AM)Stewy Wrote: In light of this thread - http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-Who-have-you-been-most-wrong-on

It got me thinking how often we are SO SURE, but oops were wrong.

In various threads, either people here or quoted "experts" have used the phrase Generational Talent to describe one of the three:

Pitts - good but not spectacular production
Chase - one year
Sewell - one year

Not everyone or every time, but it's a phrase that's been used for all three.  We get over hyped by a player and their measurables.  History tells us that at least one and maybe all three won't live up to the hype or might down right bust.  If you say differently you're lying to yourself because it happens.  Because to be that guy you need the ENTIRE package.  Head, heart, talent, work ethic, intelligence, attitude, spirit.  And we cannot know if any of the above have all those things because we can't know their heads and hearts.

So based upon what you know and assuming one or all three may bust.  Pick your poison.  There is no none of the above option.  You must pick at least one.

I want to point out the bold...
You need to remember that he only played 8 games.
He had 770 yards, 12 TDs in that amount of games.
If he played the full 13 games (regular season + bowl game), that projects to 1250 yards and 19 TDs.
If Pitts put up 1200+ yards and 15+ TDs in a full college season, he guaranteed would be seen as having a spectacular season.

I think Pitts is the most generational. When is the last time a te showed up at number two on some big boards. If Atlanta takes him, he will be the first non qb taken, more than likely. He's NBA size playing tight end with quick cutting feet, long wing span, and great hands. He is a mismatch. That said there is plenty that could go wrong. Like any football player he will have to avoid the injury bug...he got cheap shotted last year and missed time with a concussion.

I think it's most likely Sewell busts, which probably sounds weird to some. The maturity concerns I have read but I also heard that in passing the other day when I talked to someone who is a scout for an NFC team. I will be curious to see how his testing goes, specifically some of the lower body testing because I worry he won't have the lower body strength to anchor in the NFL.

The other two I really think situation and QB play will have a lot to do with their success. I think Pitts is the most unique and the one who is the prototype for where the NFL wants to go in a positionless game.

(04-02-2021, 01:55 PM)Au165 Wrote: I think it's most likely Sewell busts, which probably sounds weird to some. The maturity concerns I have read but I also heard that in passing the other day when I talked to someone who is a scout for an NFC team. I will be curious to see how his testing goes, specifically some of the lower body testing because I worry he won't have the lower body strength to anchor in the NFL.

The other two I really think situation and QB play will have a lot to do with their success. I think Pitts is the most unique and the one who is the prototype for where the NFL wants to go in a positionless game.

I don't know about bust but of the 3 I think Sewell is the most likely to have the "average to solid" career. I have little doubt Chase and Pitts will be stars in the NFL.

(04-02-2021, 01:55 PM)Au165 Wrote: I think it's most likely Sewell busts, which probably sounds weird to some. The maturity concerns I have read but I also heard that in passing the other day when I talked to someone who is a scout for an NFC team. I will be curious to see how his testing goes, specifically some of the lower body testing because I worry he won't have the lower body strength to anchor in the NFL.

The other two I really think situation and QB play will have a lot to do with their success. I think Pitts is the most unique and the one who is the prototype for where the NFL wants to go in a positionless game.

I picked Sewell as well.
OL bust rate is really high, and there were arguments he may not even be the best OL in the class.

After watching Chase work out, I think he has the highest floor He impressed me more than I expected. I've already mentioned Pitts attributes so that leaves me voting Sewell. Sewell's workout is still pending though.

(04-02-2021, 02:09 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I picked Sewell as well.
OL bust rate is really high, and there were arguments he may not even be the best OL in the class.

This is a possibility, but the guy allowed 1 sack in 926 pass blocking snaps as a Freshman and Sophmore. That is and absurd!  I could see him having a long solid career, at the worst an upper mid level tackle like Jack Conklin or Taylor Lewan.  

Generational is obviously not a term that we should use for any of these kids. It just helps the NFL industry grease the wheels for another draft, which is why we hear it every year. Moreover, the vast majority of past generational players have been supplemented by other pieces- so you never know how much of that to ascribe to them in isolation.

There are very few exceptions of guys who did it on their own... maybe Barry Sanders, Megatron, a handful of linemen like Roaf and Boselli. Otherwise you got Gronk (Brady), Rice (Montana), Larry Allen (90s Dallas OL) and others who arguably excelled as much for the systems and talent around them as for their own play.

I think Pitts is most likely to bust. After all, nobody was really talking about him as "generational" during last season (i.e. when they were actually playing football). That only came when he started testing and people started looking at his measurements lol- which is a recipe for disaster, that, especially as a TE. Matchup nightmares do not constitute greatness. There's always a matchup nightmare. Nobody ever talked about Gronk or Shannon in those terms- they were just great.

I mean, even when they do produce mismatches (Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, hell you can put Eifert on this list), the generational label never follows. Those stars tend to be seen as specialists. If you're a TE, you will never be seen as  "generational" if you can't block, and Pitts has a long way to go in that area.

PITTS

(04-02-2021, 02:45 PM)Burma Wrote: This is a possibility, but the guy allowed 1 sack in 926 pass blocking snaps as a Freshman and Sophmore. That is and absurd!  I could see him having a long solid career, at the worst an upper mid level tackle like Jack Conklin or Taylor Lewan.  

He also comes out of a very offensive line friendly system in a conference devoid of pass rush. 

Oregon tackles always seem to "never give up sacks".

(04-02-2021, 02:50 PM)Synric Wrote: He also comes out of a very offensive line friendly system in a conference devoid of pass rush. 

Oregon tackles always seem to "never give up sacks".

Which may be true, but that means there's literally nothing he could have done to justify being lauded as a potential great. Perfection is perfection. If perfection is not good enough, then he stood no chance from the beginning. That would be unfair to the kid- or any kid.

(04-02-2021, 02:50 PM)Synric Wrote: He also comes out of a very offensive line friendly system in a conference devoid of pass rush. 

Oregon tackles always seem to "never give up sacks".

I admit I am not an expeprt on their scheme so this may be true.  I rewatched the game vs Auburn and saw a lot of quick throws, but also an equal number of throws that required long engagement for the O-line (several times Herbert was holding the ball for 3 + seconds).  They asked Sewell to do a ton. I never saw him get help, they ran at his side often, and they routinely required him to make blocks on bubble screens where he was tasked with getting 20 yards out and engaging DBs and LB, which he did effectively.  He did it all and it was really impressive.  Especially when you remember the kid was only 18/19 at the time.  The only time I saw him have the struggle with Derrick Brown was on a 4th and short, line stacked left, Auburn slanting right.  Brown got leverage on him and moved him back, but didn't make the play.  

It's a 10 min video but definitely worth a watch.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ep9_ecK_HKw

Pitts, simply because it's harder for TEs to stay healthy for a long career.

(04-02-2021, 04:00 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Pitts, simply because it's harder for TEs to stay healthy for a long career.

That’s where I’m at. Not only is he a huge target for the QB. He is a huge target for LBs and Safeties coming with bad intentions.

And for NFL defenses it’s probably best if you don’t have to worry about covering the guy.

I really like Pitts as a prospect, but TEs break sometimes if they take too many hits over the middle.  

I think that Sewell and Chase have higher floors.  At worst Sewell is a guard and Chase is a slot guy.

Good discussion guys. Thanks for participating.