This is not about what we WANT them to do but a bit of a test of prognostication - what do you (we) think they WILL do?

For me, I'll start with the big stuff. They will let Bates walk. We will either see a Burrow extension or a Higgins extension (possibly both but less likely).

Big reach prediction (as in lowest odds of being right) - Mixon gets cut but they do it when the cap hit is minimal.

Other possible cuts - Adeniji (please?), D'Ante Smith

Free Agency - depth pieces mostly with exception being a "Reiff" type signing at OT.

Draft - we go OT, RB, WR (need a more explosive piece behind Boyd) LB, CB (not in this order necessarily).

What do YOU think they WILL do?

Bates is gone, resign bell and Pratt, extend burrow, also think they restructure Mixon.

If the question is what we will do using my head and not my heart i think Pratt and Bates walk, Bell is back, Mixon is back(team friendly and incentive laden restructure), Burrow extended, Higgins won’t be extended until next year, we draft 2 running backs, let Perine walk, and draft TE in the 1st round. Last move we’ll do is sign a tackle after the draft. Logan’s extension will wait until next offseason as well.

To me this is the most logical thing. The only thing i could see happening equally is both Perine and Mixon walk and we still draft 2 backs and we roll with a new kid as the bell cow and we use Chris Evans more as a receiving back

(03-03-2023, 03:10 PM)Housh Wrote: If the question is what we will do using my head and not my heart i think Pratt and Bates walk, Bell is back, Mixon is back(team friendly and incentive laden restructure), Burrow extended, Higgins won’t be extended until next year, we draft 2 running backs, let Perine walk, and draft TE in the 1st round. Last move we’ll do is sign a tackle after the draft. Logan’s extension will wait until next offseason as well.

To me this is the most logical thing. The only thing i could see happening equally is both Perine and Mixon walk and we still draft 2 backs and we roll with a new kid as the bell cow and we use Chris Evans more as a receiving back

We're pretty close except for our prognosis on RB. I think they value Perine because he can pass block and they seem less bullish on Mixon than previously. 

(03-03-2023, 03:10 PM)Housh Wrote: If the question is what we will do using my head and not my heart i think Pratt and Bates walk, Bell is back, Mixon is back(team friendly and incentive laden restructure), Burrow extended, Higgins won’t be extended until next year, we draft 2 running backs, let Perine walk, and draft TE in the 1st round. Last move we’ll do is sign a tackle after the draft. Logan’s extension will wait until next offseason as well.

To me this is the most logical thing. The only thing i could see happening equally is both Perine and Mixon walk and we still draft 2 backs and we roll with a new kid as the bell cow and we use Chris Evans more as a receiving back

No way in hell they go into next season without
at least one of Mixon and Perine. The theme is emphatic. They are happy as hell with this roster. They aren’t messing with it. Sure some salary demands could mess with it. But they will react. If Hurst doesn’t resign they will draft a TE at 29. If Mixon doesn’t restructure they’ll make sure Perine is back. Actually if they are smart they secure Perine first which does put some pressure on Mixon. I expect a tackle at 1 or 2. Simmons with Perine on every special team will have a huge meltdown

Mixon cut because I feel they really value....
Perine (resigned) brings far more to the table than Mixon, and filled in exceedingly well when Mixon was out.
Extend Burrow
Higgins - not extended - I feel it's a pipe dream regardless of what Tobin says.
Bell - resigned
Pratt - walks
Bates - walks
Logan - extended
Big RT - signing - more than a Reiff deal
Collins - injury settlement - gone
Carman at LT....
Williams starts year on PUP/IR - and never wins his job back - 5th year not picked up
Punter - Bengals draft one in the 5th/6th/7th - wins camp competition
WR - draft one no sooner than 3rd but as late as 7th
LB - draft one - backup/develop

Draft is "trenches heavy" otherwise

(03-03-2023, 03:43 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: No way in hell they go into next season without
at least one of Mixon and Perine. The theme is emphatic. They are happy as hell with this roster. They aren’t messing with it. Sure some salary demands could mess with it. But they will react. If Hurst doesn’t resign they will draft a TE at 29. If Mixon doesn’t restructure they’ll make sure Perine is back. Actually if they are smart they secure Perine first which does put some pressure on Mixon. I expect a tackle at 1 or 2. Simmons with Perine on every special team will have a huge meltdown

I agree they'll want to keep Mixon and/or Perine.  But I think they'll prioritize Perine.  I felt the offense was much better when he was the 3 down back, when Mixon was out.

(03-03-2023, 02:28 PM)Joelist Wrote: This is not about what we WANT them to do but a bit of a test of prognostication - what do you (we) think they WILL do?

For me, I'll start with the big stuff. They will let Bates walk. We will either see a Burrow extension or a Higgins extension (possibly both but less likely).

Big reach prediction (as in lowest odds of being right) - Mixon gets cut but they do it when the cap hit is minimal.

Other possible cuts - Adeniji (please?), D'Ante Smith

Free Agency - depth pieces mostly with exception being a "Reiff" type signing at OT.

Draft - we go OT, RB, WR (need a more explosive piece behind Boyd) LB, CB (not in this order necessarily).

What do YOU think they WILL do?

Adeniji and Smith will be safe until final cuts.  The cap savings with each is negligible and with Jonah and Collins recovering from injury, they need guys to take reps in OTA's and TC.  

Bates and Mixon are likely gone.  I think it's likely that they resign Apple and Perine on the cheap.  Pratt is a coin flip, imo.  Hurst is 70-30 on returning, imo.  I can see Boyd and Collins as potential surprise cuts for the Bengals to bring in a surprise big ticket FA.  

The Burrow extension will get done.  If Higgins talks stall, I think they pivot and negotiate extensions with Wilson (if Pratt leaves), Hendrickson, and/or Reader.

What I think will happen:

1) They'll keep one of Bell or Bates. The other walks. Dax Hill takes the vacated starting safety spot.
2) Perine is re-signed
3) Pratt or Apple re-signs, but not both (I think team leans toward Apple due to Awuzie recovering from injury)
4) They'll either draft an OT early or sign a cheaper vet in FA to improve the depth - but the starters will be a combination of Williams, Carman, and Collins this year
5) I think we'll see either a LB or CB drafted early based on which of Pratt or Apple walks
6) A DT will be drafted no later than Rd 4. They have expressed interest in DTs at the Combine and they have a lot of $$ invested in vets who will hit FA in the next couple years. I think they want a DT to groom before taking on a bigger role in the next couple years. Carter is also in the wings for this.
7) Depending on cap situation after they identify who they want to sign in FA, Mixon gets released to free up more cap
8) Burrow extension happens in August
9) Getting ahead of the OP's question, but I think Higgins extension does NOT get done this season

EDIT - I think Hurst also gets re-signed, but it will have to be at a reasonable price. I don't see the Bengals paying $8+ mill a year for him.

(03-03-2023, 04:25 PM)ochocincos Wrote: What I think will happen:

1) They'll keep one of Bell or Bates. The other walks. Dax Hill takes the vacated starting safety spot.
2) Perine is re-signed
3) Pratt or Apple re-signs, but not both (I think team leans toward Apple due to Awuzie recovering from injury)
4) They'll either draft an OT early or sign a cheaper vet in FA to improve the depth - but the starters will be a combination of Williams, Carman, and Collins this year
5) I think we'll see either a LB or CB drafted early based on which of Pratt or Apple walks
6) A DT will be drafted no later than Rd 4. They have expressed interest in DTs at the Combine and they have a lot of $$ invested in vets who will hit FA in the next couple years. I think they want a DT to groom before taking on a bigger role in the next couple years. Carter is also in the wings for this.
7) Depending on cap situation after they identify who they want to sign in FA, Mixon gets released to free up more cap
8) Burrow extension happens in August
9) Getting ahead of the OP's question, but I think Higgins extension does NOT get done this season

Pretty spot on but no mention of Hurst? I think they like the combo of Mixon and Perine so I think that’s unchanged except for Mixon’s contract which I don’t think will be reduced as low as 6 million like some think.

What I think will happen:

1. Mixon will be cut, Perine resigned. They'll draft a RB probably 4th round.
2. Bates probably won't be back.
3. They'll bring Apple, Hurst, Bell, and Flowers back.
4. I believe Collins might be cut/injury release. And they'll sign a vet RT in free agency. Also draft an Olineman fairly early.
5. Drew Sample is gone.
6. I'd say it's at best 50/50 on Pratt coming back. Much depends on what he wants?
7. They'll get Joe Burrow signed about summer time.

(03-03-2023, 04:31 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Pretty spot on but no mention of Hurst? I think they like the combo of Mixon and Perine so I think that’s unchanged except for Mixon’s contract which I don’t think will be reduced as low as 6 million like some think.

I knew I was forgetting someone.

I think the team will try to keep Hurst too, but they won't go crazy with his price. $7 mill or less APY.
If they can't keep Hurst in a price range they want to pay, I think they'll repurpose that money toward Eli Apple or Pratt to keep continuity.
Then instead of taking a CB/LB early, they take a TE early who can be a starter from Day 1.

I think Bates is gone (unfortunately). I think he'll regret not signing here in the long run because, even if he hits free agency and gets more money, I don't think he lasts as long and ends up making less in the long run because his career will be shortened.

Bell resigned.

Mixon restructures and takes a pay cut because he knows no other team will offer him big money and his best chance to keep his career going and to be successful is if he's here.

Resign Hurst, even if they draft a TE early. He'll be thirty be the time the season starts, so I don't think he breaks the bank because he realizes that his best opportunity to extend his career and win a ring is here.

Unlike some of you, I think we can and do resign Pratt and Apple because Apple is on his 4th team in eight seasons, only playing all 16 games once (14, 11, 5, 10, 15, 2, 15, 16), so he won't demand a lot of money because he knows that other teams see that also.

Hopefully a vet tackle or two gets released before the draft so we don't have to spend a pick on one early because I'd like proven vets blocking for Burrow.

We take care of Burrow by the end of summer (hopefully earlier so we know how much we have to spend on free agents.

(03-03-2023, 05:51 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I think Bates is gone (unfortunately). I think he'll regret not signing here in the long run because, even if he hits free agency and gets more money, I don't think he lasts as long and ends up making less in the long run because his career will be shortened.

Bell resigned.

Mixon restructures and takes a pay cut because he knows no other team will offer him big money and his best chance to keep his career going and to be successful is if he's here.

Resign Hurst, even if they draft a TE early.  He'll be thirty be the time the season starts, so I don't think he breaks the bank because he realizes that his best opportunity to extend his career and win a ring is here.

Unlike some of you, I think we can and do resign Pratt and Apple because Apple is on his 4th team in eight seasons, only playing all 16 games once (14, 11, 5, 10, 15, 2, 15, 16), so he won't demand a lot of money because he knows that other teams see that also.

Hopefully a vet tackle or two gets released before the draft so we don't have to spend a pick on one early because I'd like proven vets blocking for Burrow.

We take care of Burrow by the end of summer (hopefully earlier so we know how much we have to spend on free agents.

If they're getting cut, just how proven could they be?

(03-03-2023, 06:38 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: If they're getting cut, just how proven could they be?

It happens every year- players that no one expected to be cut get cut and could be for a number of reasons: salary's too big, switching schemes, want younger, surprise player improves or develops, etc.

Complete RB and TE room rebuilds.

(03-03-2023, 06:49 PM)Synric Wrote: Complete RB and TE room rebuilds.

Sucks we have to do this but it is what it is. Least it’s positions that don’t really hold vast importance. I’m fearful of when we have to rebuild the defensive line. When Reader and Trey and Hubbard are gone. That’s gonna be Freakin scary because you can’t win without a great d line these days

I think what they do is not in their own hands, especially with the FAs. And the draft is always a crapshoot. I think the desire is to retain as many FA starters as possible and then draft for depth instead of trying to find a starter at a specific spot. How many we lose and who is kept, at what price, then starts a domino effect on signing outside FAs and how we draft. I will break it down into tiers:

I. Stuff I am sure happens: near 100% certainty.

1. Burrow Extension. Hopefully prior to FA.
2. We keep one of Bates/Bell, but not both.
2. Bates walks. Stings some. But he is the most expensive guy & Hill is here.
3. Bell is back. We cannot lose both starting safeties. $8-10 mil. If, howver, Bates is more accomodating and Bell is not, it could go the other way, as Hill can play in the box. But I SERIOUSLY doubt it. We have significant cap space, and if push comes to shove, we pony up for Bell. Even if it is a tag.
4. Perine is back. Should not be too expensive. Need him with Mixon's future cloudy.

II. Stuff I think is very likely to happen.

1. Hurst stays. Hurst should be the priority of our remaining in house guys, as Asiasi is the only TE we have signed. He, Wilcox & Sample add nada as receivers. Yes, it is a deep TE class, but TE2 plays a lot of snaps. I don't want to have to draft/sign 2 TEs. Hurst signing would not prevent us from drafting a TE, but we could wait for day 2 or day 3. Hurst finds a home. $6-$7 mil.

2. We end with 4 TEs on the roster. Hurst, a day 1-2 pick, plus 2 from Asiasi, Sample, Wilcox, or a Day 3 pick. Two who are receiving threats and two who can block. Guys who can do both preferable.

3. Logan Wilson extension. Probably in the summer. Certainly after FA frenzy & the draft.

4. Returning reserves. Perine for $3 mil. Carman, Ossai, ADG, Bailey, & Tycen Anderson are already signed. These are no-brainer keeps. Anderson did not play last year, but we traded UP for him, he is staying.

5. Brandon Wilson is waived. He has a $2 mil salary and $0 dead cap and is coming off a major injury. He led the league in KO returns 3 years ago, but us paying $2 mil for a reserve is rare. In $2022, we had exactly 2 reserves make $2 mil or more: Scharping at $2.54 and Dax Hill at $2.1. Perine was at $1.85 mil, Flowrs at $1.84, Carman $1.7. Tupou at $1.4 next. In 2021 it was zero (though XSF ended up one). Point being, we don't typically pay reserves much. Though going for a SB that may change some. But it would have to be a guy that has starter potential/started before and performed well. Perine qualifies and I have him down for $3 mil. Apple qualifies but it will depend on what else happens. Scharping did as well last year. Brandon does not. And KO returns almost never happen any more. Plus, T. Williams (also a FA) and Evans did fine on KO returns. There is on S spot open, and I think we go with the cheaper Michael Thomas or pick a Day 3 safety (Ward from LSU or Dean from Florida or Brown from Illinois ir someone else).

III. Capology

1. Numbers. We've spent $16 mil in cap space on Bell & Hurst. Dax Hill takes Bates' spot at FS, and CTB takes Apple's starting spot. Assumimg Jonah is healthy but Chido & Collins may not be, but I am penciling them in as "starters" for roster analysis.

We'd have 21/22 starters signed on O/D. With Pratt's spot open, and Chido & LC dinged up. Adomitis & Money Mac are inked. Even though P is open, Chrisman is inked and a new P won't move the needle in terms of cap. 24/25 starters: $175,686,041 in cap hits. Duke said we are spending to the cap. Which + rollover & dead money is around $226.8 mil. A touch over $51 mil with 24 signed. Add in Perine's $3 mil and $7,664,332 for the other 6 no-brainers and we are at $186,351,372 with 31 guys inked. Around $40.4 mil in space.

Our 1st round pick is slated to make $2.4 mil, so down to $38 mil with 32 signed. Every other draft pick makes $1.1 mil or less and every other player we have signed makes $1.214 mil (ADG) or less except for Tupou at $1.57 mil ($150k dead cap). Point being, any cuts from guys below Tupou are not saving much money once you sign a replacement. Even Tupou is only gonna save a couple hundred k. Waivers from this line sown aren't about cap, it's about upgrades. And you can budget them at around $1 mil per salary slot. A touch more. Only Carter ($655k), Smith ($250k), and Tupou ($150k) have dead cap hits over $100k.

2. Argument's sake.

We have 3 more guys who are signed and had guys below them on the depth chart last year: Tupou, Irwin, and Adeniji. For now, lets say they all are back. 3 more guys, $3.57 more in salary. 35 signed. $34.4 mil in space. With Brandon Wilson & Tupou off the board, our 10 remaining signed guys (Carter, Tufele, Morgan, T. Hill, Smith, George, Evans, Gunter, Asiasi, Ben Brown) all make just under $10 mil combined ($9,964,853). And our 6 remaining draft picks (Rounds 2-7) make $5,211,236 combined. Those 16 guys would make $15,176,089, bringing our total to $201,527,461. Roughly $25 mil in space. With a cap significant 51 guys signed. From here on out, we are essentially displacing a guy (cap wise) for every guy we sign, so subtract a touch under a mil from whatever we sign a guy for from here on.

While we have some internals that will probably demand a smidge over a mil (Allen, Taylor, Thomas) it won't be by much. The only ones we have that will are Pratt, Apple, Flowers, and Scharping.

IV. More probable than not.

1. Mixon restructure or waiver.

$25 mil to cover Pratt ($8-$10 mil) and whomever we want to bring back of Apple/Flowers/Scharping is certainly doable. But snug. Figure some dead cap as not everyone under contract is back ($1 mil) and some buffer for regular season injuries & moves ($5 mil) and things are gettingcreal snug.

I am not a contract guy, but signing bonuses on extensions could count this year as well, right? So a little more room.

But if we can save $7 or $10 mil by waiving Mixon, we'd have enogh to comfortablly sign Pratt, one of Apple/Flowers, and Scharping (or a low cost vet OL/DE move). IDK what a restructure would look like, but if it doesn't save at least $5 mil, it ain't worth it.

2. Pratt stays.

With the Mixon move, we now have $21 ($5 mil restructure), $23 mil (pre FA waiver) or $26 mil (post June 1) left AFTER signing Pratt for $10 mil. This is a yes for me.

If Pratt goes, I think we make a more major FA move. Be it a play for a LB (Wagner), or OL or pass rush.

3. EDIT: I think the decision on everyone else (save maybe Apple) is after the draft. None of the rest of our guys will be high demand guys. We may sign a couple early (Allen, Taylor, T. Williams, Wilcox), but they don't change the cap math.

4. We make at least 1 FA move on the OL. Probably mid to small. Scharping back. A tackle. IOL. If we decide to let Apple walk (and re-sign Flowers instead), the move will be bigger.

(03-03-2023, 06:41 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: It happens every year- players that no one expected to be cut get cut and could be for a number of reasons: salary's too big, switching schemes, want younger, surprise player improves or develops, etc.

Decent, starting-level tackles are not released every year. Last year the only tackle released before FA was Kendall Lamm. Ever heard of him? In 2021, there was Eric Fisher, Mitchell Schwartz, Rick Wagner and Riley Reiff (signed by the Bengals). They were released because they're weren't very good or they were on the north side of 30. 

I don't agree that going after an aging tackle for a year or two, over a young, rookie contract one is the more solid move. 

Guys that are getting talked about this year are Donovan Smith, Duane Brown and Trent Brown.

(03-03-2023, 06:38 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: If they're getting cut, just how proven could they be?

Quality vets get released for CAP reasons all the time.