(01-14-2024, 07:04 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: 2 years @ 7.5 million is better than 1 year 10 million. If he can get a long term contract for much better let him go. He can’t be what he was do you think? Big gamble for Cincy not knowing his health so I don’t think it’s disrespectful

He had the same injury, different leg in 2020, came back and had a hell of a season.  7.5M is embarrassingly low.  

10M for 2024 with incentives and an option at 15M for 2025 would likely get it done.

(01-14-2024, 07:08 PM)casear2727 Wrote: He had the same injury, different leg in 2020, came back and had a hell of a season.  7.5M is embarrassingly low.  

10M for 2024 with incentives and an option at 15M for 2025 would likely get it done.

I wouldn’t pay that much. I sure hope they do. But 15 million year 2?

Will Reader be able to pass a physical in March? I don't know what the recovery timeline is. But I imagine he won't be signing right away.

(01-14-2024, 04:03 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: After factoring in futures contracts as placeholders and accounting for tag/tenders (Higgins, Browning, Adomitis) the Bengals will have 51 players under contract...and adding an estimated 3.25m for draft picks, they will have an effective cap space number of about 34.4m. 

Let's say they re-sign the 9 players listed below 1 year deals (estimated by using similar previous signings). These contracts replace the placeholders for a net cap hit of 15.15m...meaning they will still be at 51 contracts and have around 19.25m in remaining cap space.
   
RB- Trayveon Williams               1 yr- 1.225m
WR- Trenton Irwin                     1 yr- 1.28m
TE- Tanner Hudson                    1 yr- 1.2m
TE- Drew Sample                       1 yr- 1.275m
G- Max Scharping                      1 yr- 1.3m
DT- DJ Reader                           1 yr- 12m
LB- Akeem Davis-Gaither            1 yr- 2.125m 
LB- Joe Bachie                           1 yr- 1.205m
LB- Markus Bailey                       1 yr- 1.175m

*I used a low-end estimate for Reader just because of the uncertainty with the injury and the risk of signing him to more than one year right now. I feel like the high end would be  something in the 13-14m range.

I am not a cap guy, but let me see if I have this all correct. And someone yell at me if I have it wrong. I think the OP has it mostly right but not completely so. Or not complete. 

I. General Principles: 


A. How the cap is calculated differs in the off-season (March to start of the season) to the regular season. 


It has to. You have 90 guys under contract in camp. 

A.  Regular season: everything counts. 53 man roster, Practice squad, IR, PUP. 


Subject to Cap + Rollover - Dead Money +/- Adjustments. 

B.  Off-Season: Only the top 51 count. 


As long as your top 51 are under your adjusted cap, you can sign anyone you want. Now, of course, once the season starts, your PS/IR/PUP guys are gonna count. So they are a factor. 

However, during the off-season, they don't actually constrain signings (if they are out of the top 51). RFA's & ERFA's who get a tender offer count vs the cap. As do players who are Franchise Tagged. And unsigned draft picks. UFA's do not count vs the cap. 

https://russellstreetreport.com/salarycap/nfl-salary-cap-faqs/

--------------------

II.  Showing Our Work: 


A.  Bengals Cap Numbers for 2024: 


1. Estimated 2024 NFL Cap: $242,500,000 
2. Plus 2023 Bengals Rollover: $10,766,741
3. Minus 2024 Dead Money:  ($1,775,689)
4. 2024 Adjustments: $0
--------------- 
Best Guess 2024 Bengals Cap: $251,491,052

B. Signed Starters: $154,255,691 (19).


For our purposes here, let's assume that no one who played starters snaps last year is usurped or cut. For me, that means: Burrow, Mixon, Chase, O. Brown, Volson, Karras, Cappa; Hendrickson, BJ Hill, Hubbard, Wilson, Pratt, CTB, Turner, Hilton, Battle, D. Hill; McPherson, & Robbins. 19 guys.

Those guys make: $154,255,69. Cap room is down to $97,235,361. 

C.  Safe Reserves: $13,398,174 (+10 = 29).

Not saying we couldn't release any of these guys, but they are all on rookie deals except for one, and he is a vet min: C. Brown, Iosivas, C. Jones, C. Sample; Murphy, Ossai, Carter, Ivey, J. Davis, Anderson). 10 guys. 

Those guys make $13,398,174 combined. Cap space down to $83,837,187. That is with 29 guys signed. 

D.  Reserve Iffy = $13,680,884 (+8 = 37). 


These are guys who were on the 53 at some point last year. Except for Tufeke & Scott, they barely played. And those two had the lowest PFF scores of any player who is signed for 2024. I think these guys are iffy to make the roster: Evans, Carman, D. Smith, T. Hill, Tufele, Bell, Harper, Scott. 8 guys. 

They make $13,005,884. Top 51 cap space down to $70,831,303. 37 guys total. 

The $70 mil figure that was thrown around after the season? This right here is where it comes from. Now, of course, the OP is right, functionally, we don't have $70 mil. That is with only 37 guys signed. Once the season starts, the PS & IR will count vs the cap, you have to take that into account. 

Now, of course, some of the 37 guys above COULD get cut or restructured. But 9utside of the higher paid starters, the only guys who'd have a significant cap inpact would be Scott & Carman, and even then  significant is pushing it. Scott makes $4.3 mil, but has $2 mil Dead Cap. Once you pay his replacement, you are talking $1.3 mil ish in savings. Carman makes $2.4 almost, but with almost $700k dead cap. Once you pay a replacement, you are looking at $700k? Maybe $2 mil between them? 

E. Practice Squad/Future's: $9,225,000 (+11 = 48). 

These players never made the 53 last year, and were either practice squad players who signed Future's contracts recently (Jackson, Lassiter II, Pryor, Kirkland, Gilliam, Gunter, D. Davis, Heyward, George) or guys who were ueaded to the PS and spent the year on IR (Cochran, Maxwell). 

They are, most likely, just placeholders for the FA's/draft picks we sign/re-sign that will make the team. As such, their placeholder number will be lower than the guys we actually keep in most instances. 

Their combined salary of $9,225,000 reduces our top 51 cap (offseason cap) to $61,606,303 with 48 players signed. 

Before anyone panicks & thinks these guys will cost us $15 mil off our cap in the regular, as Practice Squad guys, they won't. PS salaries are MUCH lower. Guys with 2 years or fewer (all the 11 guys above) make $12,500 per week. 18 weeks is $225k. Older vets can make more (16,100 to 20,600 per week), but only 6 spots are available to them. If those 6 are all taken by max vets, the cap hit for the PS is $4.45 mil. That number is a factor once the seadon starts, but not when signing FAs (though a release/renegotiation would have to happen if you are over).
--------- 

F.  Functional Space after tenders (Higgins, Browning, Adomitis). 


And I think that is how the OP gets to $34 mil. Tee's tender is $21.1. The tenders for our ERFA's (Browning & Adomitis) are 915k each. Those are both gimmee's. That is $23 mil at 51 players. $38.5 mil in cap space left. 

Assuming our 3 tenders, that is the offseason amount we have to work with entering FA. Practically, less, since the PS number ($4.45 max), the placeholders future's guys value will be less than actual, and the fact we are at 51, not 53, one of which will be a 1st rounder at $2.6 mil. 

Of course, on the other side, Tee's number could be lower if a deal gets done, the PS number could be lower if we go younger, and we might renegotiate or release a higher paid player or two. 

I get $38.5 mil after tenders. $61 at the moment. But $35 at 53 (1st rounder + 1 to get to 53) is spot on. And then take off the PS $$$ for the actual amount. Say, $4 mil. 

(01-14-2024, 07:19 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Will Reader be able to pass a physical in March? I don't know what the recovery timeline is. But I imagine he won't be signing right away.

No way.

(01-14-2024, 07:12 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: I wouldn’t pay that much. I sure hope they do. But 15 million year 2?

If Reader bounces back strong in mid to late 2024, 15M will be a solid deal for the team in 2025.

If he doesnt, we can cut hm with no dead cap or adjust for a reduction.

(01-14-2024, 07:21 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: F.  Functional Space after tenders (Higgins, Browning, Adomitis). 


And I think that is how the OP gets to $34 mil. Tee's tender is $21.1. The tenders for our ERFA's (Browning & Adomitis) are 915k each. Those are both gimmee's. That is $23 mil at 51 players. $38.5 mil in cap space left. 

Assuming our 3 tenders, that is the offseason amount we have to work with entering FA. Practically, less, since the PS number ($4.45 max), the placeholders future's guys value will be less than actual, and the fact we are at 51, not 53, one of which will be a 1st rounder at $2.6 mil. 

Of course, on the other side, Tee's number could be lower if a deal gets done, the PS number could be lower if we go younger, and we might renegotiate or release a higher paid player or two. 

I get $38.5 mil after tenders. $61 at the moment. But $35 at 53 (1st rounder + 1 to get to 53) is spot on. And then take off the PS $$$ for the actual amount. Say, $4 mil. 

This was my breakdown:

I started with 68.9 in available cap space.
Then deduct 23.5m for Tee, Browning, Adomitis...leaving 45.4m.
Next is rounding up to 11m for draft picks and the 9 futures contracts...leaving about 34.4m.
I also used examples of 9 re-signings, which would replace the placeholders for a net cap hit of 15.15m...leaving a total of 19.25m in that scenario.

It's just meant to be an accurate example of what the cap would look like in this particular scenario...where Tee is tagged and DJ re-signed, along with a few re-signings. It doesn't leave a whole lot for outside free agents.

(01-14-2024, 07:35 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: This was my breakdown:

I started with 68.9 in available cap space.
Then deduct 23.5m for Tee, Browning, Adomitis...leaving 45.4m.
Next is rounding up to 11m for draft picks and the 9 futures contracts...leaving about 34.4m.
I also used examples of 9 re-signings, which would replace the placeholders for a net cap hit of 15.15m...leaving a total of 19.25m in that scenario.

It's just meant to be an accurate example of what the cap would look like in this particular scenario...where Tee is tagged and DJ re-signed, along with a few re-signings. It doesn't leave a whole lot for outside free agents.

Looks good to me. Several different ways to go about it & estimating where we are/will be. But that looks faithful/accurate to me. 

(01-14-2024, 11:15 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Looks good to me. Several different ways to go about it & estimating where we are/will be. But that looks faithful/accurate to me. 

Man, they have alot of decisions to make this off-season. It's going to be interesting to see how it plays out.

(01-14-2024, 05:22 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: I think Awouzie is brought back

I think Awouzie is the guy we can't lose.  He's a great leader, a student of the game, and his leadership in the locker room is unmatched.  The rest can walk and we can draft with the 9 picks we have this season to replace them and can probably find adequate players for much less cash.  As far as I'm concerned, Tee can go with his price tag, but if he's willing to take half of what he wants and not be so injury-prone, drop passes, and play as he did in the Vikings game, then in 2025 we can talk about giving him what he wants.   

I wouldn't offer Reader more than 2-3 million. I don't think there's any way he gets on the field before December. I highly doubt he gets signed anywhere at the start of the season.

We need to get a couple DTs that can contribute right away.

(01-14-2024, 11:20 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Man, they have alot of decisions to make this off-season. It's going to be interesting to see how it plays out.

That’s what I was thinking. There are going to be domino effects throughout the roster based on who they want/are able to sign. Not even sure what they will be looking at in the first round until they make a few other decisions. I still think RT and let Jonah walk as that saves $ and hopefully improves the OL.
How the WR $ shakes out will really determine what they are able to do at all of other spots.

(01-15-2024, 12:36 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: I wouldn't offer Reader more than 2-3 million.  I don't think there's any way he gets on the field before December.  I highly doubt he gets signed anywhere at the start of the season.

We need to get a couple DTs that can contribute right away.

Wanna bet? 

(01-15-2024, 12:36 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: I wouldn't offer Reader more than 2-3 million.  I don't think there's any way he gets on the field before December.  I highly doubt he gets signed anywhere at the start of the season.

We need to get a couple DTs that can contribute right away.

You're not signing Reader for 2-3 million.  At minimum you are probably looking at 10 million.  Even then I dont know if that would be enough.

(01-15-2024, 02:52 PM)007BengalsFan Wrote: You're not signing Reader for 2-3 million.  At minimum you are probably looking at 10 million.  Even then I dont know if that would be enough.

Yeah, $2-3M seems like a lot to most of us, but we don't have an accomplished NFL resume like DJ Reader does.  I think that a minimum 'prove it' deal for a player of Reader's esteem is likely $12-13M,or about half of what he would command had he not been injured, as you're likely only going to have him available for about half the season and the playoff run.

(01-15-2024, 02:52 PM)007BengalsFan Wrote: You're not signing Reader for 2-3 million.  At minimum you are probably looking at 10 million.  Even then I dont know if that would be enough.

Then he's an easy choice to let walk.  He's in his 30s and has a 9-12 month recovery in front of him.  

(01-15-2024, 01:53 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Wanna bet? 

On what?  That he gets signed in March/April?  

I'll take that bet.

(01-14-2024, 07:08 PM)casear2727 Wrote: He had the same injury, different leg in 2020, came back and had a hell of a season.  7.5M is embarrassingly low.  

10M for 2024 with incentives and an option at 15M for 2025 would likely get it done.

That is what I'm hoping for. I think the injury concern on Reader, while understandable, is likely overblown. 

I am more concerned with what we look like in December rather than September. 

(01-18-2024, 12:00 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: On what?  That he gets signed in March/April?  

I'll take that bet.

Backtracking already? 

You said he wouldn't be signed atcthe start of the season. I will take that bet. 

You said he wouldn't see the field before December. I will take that bet. 

$2-$3 million is also flatly absurd. 

The only thing you said that makes any sense is we need 2-3 guys at DT/NT. 

1) Reader 
2) Pass rushing DT (FA or draft) 
3) Reader placeholder/Tufele/Tupou upgrade (draft or lesser FA). 

I could live with another year of Tupou & Carter, but only as the 3rd options. As #2's, they are weak. Tufele is a PS guy. 

Reader turns 30 years old this Summer.
Bengals haven't traditionally signed players 30+ years old to multi-year contracts.

If Reader is retained, it would only be for 2024, I think.

If that were the case, I'd offer him no more than $10 mill given his injuries and age.
That's still relatively close to his $13.25 mill AAV he got on his last contract, which was when he was in his prime.

Do that and draft a guy in Rd 2-4 range to groom for a year.