(02-26-2024, 04:34 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Yes, regardless we need at least 2 new DT's added, 1 a NT and 1 a 3-tech. But I am down with what you say, 2 NT's and 1 pass rusher
would be ideal. I have no faith in Carter after his patheticism last year. I would cut bait with him and keep BJ Hill and Tufele and let Tufele
compete with the new guys we bring in.

Rankins or Leonard Williams would be great in FA since it looks like all the best pass rushing 3-tech's will stay where they are most likely.

In the Draft Stackhouse is another NT type and Leonard Taylor and Ruke Orhorhoro are a couple 3-tech's we should keep our eye on.

We are largely in agreement. But I believe Stackhouse is staying at GA. 

https://www.si.com/college/georgia/football/nazir-stackhouse-announces-return-to-georgia

I'd take Carter over Tufele. He graded out higher, improved more, and at least had one impactful/game saving play (Minny run stuff). 

For me, I keep Hill and Carter at DT but hope to land a FA to push them both down a rung on the ladder. Or draft a guy who upgrades Carter. 

I bring Reader back and, again, hope to land a FA/pick to upgrade Tupou & hopd the fort while DJ recovers. Though I have no issue bringing Tupou back until then. I am nervous if Tupou has to start 6 games. Bat at backup/#3 NT, he is fine. 

(02-26-2024, 03:22 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: I am a bit confused, Hudson is certainly not an ERFA like Browning & Adomitis. The tender there is league min. 

But for a RFA, then I think you have it right. 

I guess it depends on how we see the pre-negotiating period going & how much space we have. If we cannot land any real big fish and have ample space, maybe. 

But I think we probably just let him become an UFA and bring him back. Reserves making $2 mil plus are rare for us. Though Carman & Scott & Murphy all will in '24. I'd be shocked if he and Sample are not back at TE. The position is void ATM. 

Yep, meant RFA.

(02-27-2024, 09:31 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Yep, meant RFA.

I think Rankins will be a prime target due to age, cap hit and the fact they had interest and tried signing him prior apparently
If we could sign him and draft a BIG DT like Sweat, that would be ideal 

Alright, let's move on to our 3rd spot where we have a hole in the starting lineup, Offensive Tackle.

3. Offensive Tackle

A. Signed

Player; Cap; Dead Cap; FA Year; PFF L3, 2023 Snaps

1. O. Brown: $16,354,000; $23,325,000; '27; 66.1/75.8/75.4; 1,059 O + 71 ST.
------------Starter Line-----------
2. Carman: $2,370,438; $694,536; '25; 56.6/60.7/56.3, 12 O + 1 ST
3. D. Smith (OT/G): $1,179,136; $124,836; '25; x/48.2/53.0.
----------Reserve Line---------
4. Cochran: $795,000; $0; '25; x/x/x, Zero.
5. Kirkland (OT/G): $795,000; $0; '25; x/x/x, Zero
----------Future's/PS Line--------

B. Unsigned

Player, FA Status, PFF L3, 2023 Snaps
1. J. Williams, UFA, 58.5/61.2/77.5; 1,088 O + 72 ST
------------Starter Line-------
2. Ford (OT/G): UFA, 53.9/41.2/46.7; 79 O + 72 ST
-----------Reserve Line-------

C. Analysis

Brown is set to start at LT and the RT spot is open with Jonah hitting FA. Ford was our primary OT backup and is a FA as well. Carman & Smith under contract. Cochran & Kirkland were both injured early on last year and spent the year on IR. Kirkland signed a Future's contract this year.

I do not think there is any way in the world we pay $10-$15 mil for Jonah, long term. He is decent, and pretty durable, but gets overwhelmed too often vs top level DEs. We are picking high this year due to Burrow's injury, and it is a historically good OT class. I think 8 1st rounders is realistic. Further, 4 of those 8, and 4 of the top 7, are RTs: Fuaga, Latham, Guyton, and Mims.

Further, it is not a stellar year for OTs in FA, and two of the best are 30+ (Smith & Brown). And Onwenu likely expensive. I could see a FA OT sogning as a bridge type (Eluemunor) if it can be done for cheap-ish. Especially if the target at #18 is likely to be raw (Guyton, Mims). And it would allow us possibly go in a different direction at #18 (Bowers, Murphy, Newton, CB). I'd love Smith but he'll never sign here if he isn't the guaranteed starter...and he has not played RT in a long while.

As for the reserves, bringing back Ford for cheap is certainly possible. If we get a bridge RT in FA and draft one, then somone will have to go. I'd prefer to bring back Ford & keep Carman over Smith. The former two have at least played meaningful snaps for us. Though Carman sermingly beeing LT only hurts him as a reserve.

I don't think cap should impact the decision on the reserves. Cutting Carman does not save us much $$, given the nearly $700k in Dead Cap & having to play a replacement. Just take the best guys. Cochran & Kirkland both coming off injury, and the latter may be more of a G. But competing for the #4 OT (or G in Kirkland's case) is likely best case scenario for either.

I think we take a RT at #18. Right now I'd say 50/50 on an Elumunor type bridge, though if it isn't a significant upgrade from Ford, what is the point?

(02-27-2024, 11:33 AM)kalibengal Wrote: I think Rankins will be a prime target due to age, cap hit and the fact they had interest and tried signing him prior apparently
If we could sign him and draft a BIG DT like Sweat, that would be ideal 

Rankins is a really good player, but we'd still need someone to play NT while Sweat was developing.

Actually, upon comparing Rankins to BJ Hill, Hill was way more productive. In total tackles 50 to 37, in QB hits 21 to 10, Rankins only had a slight edge in sacks with 6 to 4.5 they were even with a fumble recovery each and Hill had 2 INT and Rankins had 0. And I'm betting that Rankins would be asking for more than Hill is playing for this season.

Alright, time for the last spot where we have a hole in the starting lineup, TE. Not only do we lack a starter, we lack ANY signed TEs, at all.

4. Tight End

A. Signed

Player; Cap, Dead Cap; FA Year; PFF L3, 2023 Snaps
1. No one

B. Unsigned

Player, FA Status, PFF L3, 2023 Snaps
-------------Starter Line----------
1. I. Smith, UFA, 44.2/56.6/x, 330 O
2. D. Sample, UFA, 60.0/52.3/59.0, 497 O + 199 ST
3. Hudson, RFA, 73.0/60.1/x, 276 O + 31 ST
-----------Reserve Line----------
4. Wilcox, FA?, 46.7/55.7/46.2, 230 O + 316 ST
-----------Future's/PS Line---------

C. Analysis

The well is dry here. Smith was a huge disappointment and there is no way he is back. Sample actually played the most offensive snaps, but his utility is almost all as a blocker/pass protector. Hudson got called up from the PS midseason and was a godsend catching the ball. He graded out the best but isn't much of a blocker. It would be nice to have a TE who can do both, and not tip the play via personnel. Wilcox is a decent enough utility/ST guy who may be an upper level PS guy. Fine as a 4th TE (if we keep 4) but weak as a #3.

It is not a strong TE FA class. Schultz & not much else. I am not enamored with Fant or Henry.

Nor it is a strong draft class at TE. Bowers is the only Rd1 TE and likely long gone by #18. Sanders is the only Rd2 TE and pretty much a receiver only. I'd prefer a 2 way guy, though a real TE threat migh ease the need at WR3. And since we din't feature TE as much, I might want to spend that Rd2 on DT, WR or DB. There is some decent guys in Rd3-4 territory: Stover, Sinnott, and Johnson.

Adding one of those plus bringing back Sample & Hudson would be the route I'd take. I would not rule out Schultz, depending on how the rest of FA shakes out. But I'd certainly focus on DT (Reader + 1) first. Then a legit difference maker at CB/S/IOL. Then a mid-value OT/S/CB. THEN Schultz. Then Fant/Henry types.

Diffetent sites have differing opinions on if Hudson is a RFA. I think it unlikely we tender him in anuly case, but $3 mil is not back-brealing, especially if we draft a mid round TE. There are also spmits on Wilcox's status, but that does not matter, as he won't get a tender regardless.

IDK if we keep 3 or 4 TEs. But Wilcox should be 4th.

(02-26-2024, 05:54 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: We are largely in agreement. But I believe Stackhouse is staying at GA. 

https://www.si.com/college/georgia/football/nazir-stackhouse-announces-return-to-georgia

I'd take Carter over Tufele. He graded out higher, improved more, and at least had one impactful/game saving play (Minny run stuff). 

For me, I keep Hill and Carter at DT but hope to land a FA to push them both down a rung on the ladder. Or draft a guy who upgrades Carter. 

I bring Reader back and, again, hope to land a FA/pick to upgrade Tupou & hopd the fort while DJ recovers. Though I have no issue bringing Tupou back until then. I am nervous if Tupou has to start 6 games. Bat at backup/#3 NT, he is fine. 

Didn't know Stackhouse is staying at Georgia, thanks Ike. True on the Carter stop, gave me some hope, but 5 pressures in all those snaps is
pretty pathetic. I hope he makes the jump if we do keep him around but I am not holding my breath, he was my biggest hope to make the 
jump last Offseason. I agree, bring back Reader and upgrade Tupou, a Free Agent NT and another NT that is drafted and a 3-tech drafted to
compete behind BJ Hill with Carter.

Leonard Taylor or Ruke Orhorhoro like I said would be some good ones to grab around the 3rd round. Remember that Geno was drafted in 
the 4th round so it is possible to get a special 3-tech in the mid rounds. Sweat early is now my hope in the 2nd round ideally.

(02-27-2024, 02:52 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Didn't know Stackhouse is staying at Georgia, thanks Ike. True on the Carter stop, gave me some hope, but 5 pressures in all those snaps is
pretty pathetic...

A defensive line having Hill and Carter as your starters with Tufele and Bell as your rotational guys is a disaster waiting to happen.  At minimum the Bengals need to add a NT and DT that can get pressure on the QB and probably a 3rd DT for depth.  

You could draft someone like Newton or Murphy in the 1st or Leonard Taylor later which would be your pass rushing DT.  At NT you could re-sign Reader but may also want to draft depth and someone to take his place like Sweat if he is there in the 2nd.  That would be your 2-3 guys for the interior of the defensive line that need to be added.

(02-27-2024, 05:06 PM)007BengalsFan Wrote: A defensive line having Hill and Carter as your starters with Tufele and Bell as your rotational guys is a disaster waiting to happen.  At minimum the Bengals need to add a NT and DT that can get pressure on the QB and probably a 3rd DT for depth.  

You could draft someone like Newton or Murphy in the 1st or Leonard Taylor later which would be your pass rushing DT.  At NT you could re-sign Reader but may also want to draft depth and someone to take his place like Sweat if he is there in the 2nd.  That would be your 2-3 guys for the interior of the defensive line that need to be added.

Yes sir. Definitely the biggest hole on the team, we have 1 starting caliber player at DT right now in BJ Hill and that is it.

DT went from being a very deep position a few years ago to our weakest position very quickly, it is wild.

FWIW, here are Onwenu's PFF ratings by position (# of snaps)

Year,---LG, ----------- RG, -------------RT, -------------TE
2020 83.5 (112), 79.7 (185), 79.2 (616), 79.9 (14)
2021 81.3 (290), 60.0 (2 ), 84.6 (276), 78.7 (89)
2022 N/A, 80.0 (1,044), N/A, N/A
2023 N/A, 54.0 (194), 78.6 (656 ), N/A

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-free-agency-mike-onwenu-new-england-patriots-priority-2024

I think I am officially starting to change my mind on being (nearly) locked in on RT at #18.

I think Onwenu is a big enough upgrade at RT to justify the $$$. If we draft a RT we could move him to LG. Versatility is good injury insurance.

Update time:

Unsurprisingly, Browning & Adomitis have been tendered.

They can sign the tenders or negotiate a longer deal. So I don't have exact numvers yet.

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2024/2/28/24085649/jake-browning-cal-adomitis-tendered-bengals-nfl-free-agency

FWIW, thise signings bring the number of signed guys (including Future's guys) to 51. Which is the magic number for the NFL offseason.

If one wants to be more (and at the same time less) strightforward in computing cap, we are now in displacement territory once those guys sign. The less straightforward part is that is does not count the PS costs that count vs the cap in the regular, nor build in the cost of the higher draft picks/vets.

Oh, and I need to do a bit of a mea culpa on Rankins. He is not a DJ/NT type. More a DT/3T type.

OK, time for an update the functional cap space with the ragging Tee & Tendering Adomitis & Browning news. 

Of course, the functional part of this is a hypothetical exercise, not the real numbers for the guys signed, sealed, & delivered. 

III.  Functional Cap Space Estimate: $44,106,908

A.  Starting Point: $83,731,303 with 37 signed.

This includes:

1. Signed Starters (19): Burrow, Mixon, Chase, O. Brown, Cappa, Volson, Karras; Hendrickson, Hubbard, BJ Hill, Wilson, Pratt, CTB, Turner, Hilton, D. Hill, Battle; McPherson, Robbins. 

2. Signed Reserves (+10=29): C. Brown, Iosivas, C. Jones; C. Sample, Murphy, Ossai, Carter, Ivey (Inj), J. Davis, Anderson (Inj).

3. Signed Bubble (+8=37): Evans, Carman, D. Smith, T. Hill; Tufele, Bell, Harper, Scott.

Every guy of those 37 was on the 53 last year and is signed for next. All the reserves (save Scott) and a few of the starters do not move the cap space needle if released & replaced (Robbins). And for the moment assume no big ticket releases happen, as that will likely happen after FA signings, or the draft, if at all, save maybe Mixon.

B.  Franchise Tag (+1=38): $21,816,000. $61,915,303.

We have tagged Tee. Obviously, a trade or a long term deal could still happen & change the number, but for now, let us assume that this is it.

We now are down to 4 starting spots to fill (WR3, RT, TE, DT). So we will build the roster to 49 now.

C. ERFA's (+2=40): $1,830,000. $60,085,303

These are Adomitis and Browning. We have tendered both as expected. Both guys make the min ($915,000), so $1,830,000 here for both. If we end up negotiating a longet term deal at a higher number, I will revise. 

D. Rd1 Pick (+1=41): $2,740,995. $57,344,308

This pick will plug a hole, likely RT. Maybe DT, WR, CB, or TE. We could easily double dip at WR, DT, OL, TE, or DB in FA/draft.

E. Min FAs (+8=49): $8,930,000. $48,414,308

We have another 20 FAs from last year who were on the 53 at some point: Higgins, Reader, Jonah, Boyd, Chido, I. Smith, ADG, Hudson, Irwin, D. Sample, Ford, Scharping, Tupou, T. Williams, Bailey, Bachie, Wilcox, and McCarron. All are UFAs save for possibly 3, who some sites list as RFA's (Hudson, Irwin, Wilcox). ESPN has Hudson as RFA. The tender for an RFA is almost $3 mil. No way Irwin nor Wilcox get that, and Hudson is frankly doubtful. 

Regardless, I picked 8 guys I think we could get back for a min deal appropriate to their years of service and plugged that # in ($1,125,000 or $1,055,000) to get $8,930,000 for 8 guys: T. Williams, Irwin, D. Sample, Ford, Scharping, Tupou, Bailey, & Bachie. Which brings us to 49 guys with $48.4 mil in space.

I think Hudson & ADG may be worth slightly more, but perhaps not. If so, not by much. I would love to have both back. Particularly Hudson.

With $48.2 million, I think we can make a reasonable run at filling 4 starting spots. Really 3, as #18 should take care of 1 of them. Heck, if Reader is brought back reasonably, we could be looking at $40 mil, plus our 8 Rd2-7 picks for 2 starting spots + upgrades & depth.

Two more things.

F.  Practice Squad: $4,307,400. $44,106,908

In the offseason, the PS does not count vs the cap, as it does not really exist, you just can sign up to 90 guys. They count as min players up to that point (our Future's guys, for instance). But come September, it does. 

Guys with less than 2 seasons of accrued service make $12,500 per week on the PS. Times 18 weeks is $225,000. All 9 Future's guys are in this category (Jackson, Lassiter, Pryor, Gilliam, Kirkland, Gunter, D. Davis, Heyward, George), as are Cochran & Maxwell. As would any picks.

Vets on the PS make more (M. Thomas, S. Jimes, etc) and can negotiate between $16,800 and $21,300 per week. Or $302,400 to $383,400 per year.

Say we max out in vet PS guys at 6. Say they make the average of their possible salaries per week ,($19,050). $342,900 per year. Times 6. $2,057,400. Plus 10 guys at $225,000 is $2,250,000. For a total of $4,307,400.

That leaves us $44,106,908 with a full PS & 8 draft picks, & FA to fill out the roster & PS. In the above exercise, I have allotted for a 16 person PS and 48 digned guys plus our pick at $18.

This hypothetical roster would be:

Offense = 21
QB: Burrow, Browning (ERFA)
RB: Mixon, C. Brown, Evans, T. Williams (UFA)
WR: Chase, Highins (tag); Iosivas, C. Jones, Irwin (R/UFA?)
TE: D. Sample (UFA)
OT: O. Brown, Carman, D. Smith, Ford (UFA)
OG: Cappa, Volson, Scharping (UFA)
C: Karras, T. Hill
----------
Defense = 24.
DE: Hendrickson, Hubbard, Murphy, C. Sample, Ossai
DT: BJ Hill; Carter, Tufele, Bell, Tupou (UFA)
LB: Wilson, Pratt, Harper, Bailey (UFA), Bachie (UFA)
CB: CTB, Turner, Hudson, Ivey (Inj), J. Davis
S: Battle, D. Hill, Scott, Anderson (Inj)
----------
Special Teams = 3
PK: McPherson
P: Robbins
LS: Adomitis (ERFA)
--------
Rd1 pick #18 = 1.

Practice Squad/Futures = 11.
1. Jackson, WR (Fut)
2. Lassiter, WR (Fut)
3. Pryor, WR (Fut)
4. Kirkland, OT/OG (Fut)
5. Gilliam, OF/C (Fut)
6. Gunter, DE (Fut)
7. D. Davis, DT (Fut)
8. Heyward, LB (Fut)
9. George, CB (Fut)
10. Cochran, OT
11. Maxwell, DT

Again, the 2 ERFA's are gimmees. Chronologically, the MIN guys probably happen later, or even pkst draft. But all 8 I selected have all demonstrated some ability to be playable for us, and should be relatively easy to sign. And also be prime vet PS candidates if they get bumped by a FA or draft pick.

Our unsigned would be:

1. Reader, DT/NT
2. J. Williams, OT
3. Boyd, WR
4. Awuzie, CB
5. Hudson, TE, RFA
6. ADG, LB
7. Wilcox, TE, RFA?
8. I  Smith, TE
9. McCarron, QB, released/waived


I signed 10 of our own FAs in this exercise, who will be added back in the position specific posts that will follow: Browning (ERFA), Adomitis (ERFA), T. Williams (UFA), Irwin (RFA?), D. Sample (UFA), Ford (UFA), Scharping (UFA), Tupou (UFA), Bailey (UFA), and Bachie (UFA).

Last thing is the draft picks. By the time the draft rolls around, the reality is we will be beyond 51 signed players. Cumulatively, the average salarulies for those picks are VERY close to the salaries of the guys they will be replacing on the roster. Very possibly, we could be gaining cap space, depending on who is replaced (Mixon, Scott, Carman, etc). Accordingly, for cap purposes, I am calling Rd2-7 a wash. 

Alright, time to power through the rest of the position groups. Before I do, I want to show how I grouped them & why I am listing them in the order I do. YMMV, of course.

Top tier = Starter needed + depth: DT, OT, TE, WR
Mid tier = Starter upgrades + depth: CB, S, P, IOL
Low tier = Likely only depth: RB, LB
No real needs: QB, DE, PK, LS

When I started, we had 6 starting holes: WR2 (Higgins), WR3 (Boyd), DT (Reader), RT ( Williams), TE (I. Smith), and LS (Adomitis). With Tee tagged (and I am 99% sure he stays) and Adomitis tendered, I see only 4 holes out of 25 possible starters: DT (Reader), RT (Jonah), WR3 (Boyd), and TE (I. Smith). Though upgrades would be welcome at some spots.

I put WR first initially with 2 starters in FA + Irwin. But I'd put it 4th now. Why? Because I think it the least likely if the 4 to necessitate significant FA spending. And if utcdoes, it will be our own guys. We have possible solutions on the roster (Jones, Iosivas) and 3 guys on Future's deals. If Boyd & Irwin do not return, we may just promote from within. Plus, it is an extremely deep WR class.

Meanwhile, at DT I could see 2-3 significant FA moves: Reader + a big fish DT if we can land one, plus a lower tier NT type Tupou upgrade to fill in if Reader misses time. Plus 1-2 picks: a pass rushing DT disruptor and/or a NT type. Tupou, Carter, & Tufele could all be upgraded/PS guys if I had my way. I'd put DT at #1 in FA now.

FA pickings are slimmer at OT and the draft is extraordinary at the top. A legit long term FA (Onwenu) serms unlikely & expensive. The rest are older guys (Smith, Brown) or a tier or two below. Thought some vet depth/bridge might be useful if the pick is raw (Guyton, Mims).

TE is totally void. But I think we can retain D. Sample, Hudson, and/or Wilcox without too much difficulty or expense. Though Hudson could be iffy. Outside of Schultz, I do not like the FA class. Draft either, outside of Bowers. Sander in 2nd. Stover/Sinnott/Johnson in 3rd/4th.

So, in terms of FA priorities, I go DT, OT, TE, WR.

Alright, onto the mid-tier position group needs, starting eith what I think it the most urgent/likely to have FA spending, cornerback.

Though it is close with Safety. Really, I could see a significant FA in play for us at any or all of these spots, depending on how FA goes at the other spots. The more we whiff (or get good value) at DT, OT, TE, and WR, the more likely we spend big(ger) at CB, S, P, or IOL.

5. Cornerback

A. Signed

Player, Cap, Dead Cap, FA Yr, PFF L3, 2023 Snaps
1. CTB: $1,623,471; $754,628; '26; 64.5/56.1/x, 655 D + 5 ST
2. Turner: $1,400,010; $2,140,026; '27; 51.5/x/x, 829 D + 84 ST
3. Hilton: $7,450,000; $1,000,000; '25; 77.4/73.4/72.3, 878 D + 7 ST
-------------Starter Line-----------
4. Ivey (Inj): $935,168; $60,489; '27; 86.8/x/x, 21 D + 113 ST
5. J. Davis: $1,225,000; $75,000; '25; 51.4/60.4/69.3, 53 D + 198 ST
--------------Reserve Line------------
6. George: $915,000; $0; '25; x/60.4/x, Zero.
------------Future's/PS Line--------

B. Unsigned

Player, FA Status, PFF L3, 2023 Snaps
1. Awuzie: UFA, 62.6/69.9/83.4, 722 D + 56 ST
------------Starter Line--------

C. Analysis

Looking at it one way, our CB situation seems pretty simple. We have spent a 2nd round pick the ladt 2 years on boundary corners, and both have shown well enough and played enough snaps to be penciled in as starters. Hilton continues to be outstanding in the slot. Davis has been an adequate backup for years. Ivey looked good in limited snaps. Go get some depth with a value FA or a mid-round pick in a good CB draft, and move on. Plus, Hill can play some slot. Why is CB even up this high?

Two reasons. First being that there does not appear to be a legit CB1/lockdown guy. Second, with Chido a FA and the promising Ivey recovering from serious injury, we have nada boundary corner depth. Davis/Hill are slot guys.

CTB and Turner have flashed, but nothing like peak Chido (2021) who is now a FA. Of couse, Chido did not look like peak Chido either coming off the injury. Does he bounce back or is 2023 Chido the new reality? Further, it IS a deep CB class and we could be staring at a guy with lockdown potential at #18 (Arnold, Mitchell, DeJean, Wiggins) or starter potential in Rd2. Awful tempting with Hilton in his last year. I think you need at least 4 CBs who can play at a good level. We have 2 + Turner. Realistically, the only way I'd go corner at #18 is if Reader, DT-3T (Wilkins, L. Williams), & OT (Onwenu) are already solved & DT/RT are off my draft board at #18.

I'd without a doubt prioritize trenches in FA: DT & OT. I am confident a deal with Reader gets done, but when he can play & the terms are murky. But if I cannot land another legit top DT-3T/OT guy as serms likely (Jones, Madubuike, Wilkins, Onwenu) or a good 2nd tier guy (L. Williams, Smith, Brown), I'd allocate top draft resources to those spots & turn my sights to upgrading CB, S, IOL, or P in FA. Or filling TE. Really, even if we sign Reader + a legit DT/OT guy we should still have around $15-$20 to play with. If it is just DJ, the $35 mil or slightly more

But just like at DT & OT, the true HR FA's (Johnson, Sneed) seem likely to be tagged, extended, or only traded for a haul. A lockdown corner would be nice, but it is not a huge need. Especially if one is bullish
on CTB & Turner & see the 3 starting spots as locked down.

Baring an unlikely series of FA HR's that allow us to draft CB1 at #18 or sign a CB1 in FA, I think the realistic choices are bring back Chido, a cheaper vet FA signing, or use a Rd2-Rd4 pick to add some depth. Or both.

Lastly, there are the issues of Ivey's injury and what to do with Hill. With Ivey recovering, we may need 2 CBs, not one. I would not feel comfortable penciling Ivey in as CB4 even if he was not injured. He only played 20-some snaps. As for Hill, even if he moves back to CB, he is likely slot only, and Hilton's backup/successor, and likely bumps Davis. We'd still need 2 boundary corners. Or only 1 if Ivey is good to go at CB5.

Onto my 2nd second tier FA position of need, safety.

6. Safety

A. Signed

Player, Cap, Dead Cap, FA Yr, PFF L3, 2023 Snaps
1. D. Hill: $3,181,913; $6,894,144; '26/'27, 51.6/58.1/x, 1,091 D + 82 ST.
2. Battle: $1,210,231; $654,555; '27; 82.5/x/x, 525 D + 190 ST
-----------------Starter Line----------
3. Scott: $4,300,000; $2,000,000; '26; 41.6/54.2/47.5, 571 D + 190 ST.
4. Anderson (inj): $1,061,521; $153,042; '26; x/x/x; Zero D + 123 ST.
------------Reserve Line---------

B. Unsigned

Player, FA Status, PFF L3, 2023 Snaps
------------Reserve Line--------
1. M. Thomas: UFA, x/58.6/52.9, Zero
-----------PS/Future's Line-------

C. Analysis

Like CB, at one level this seems relatively straighforward. We carry 4. We have 4 signed. One is a rookie who excelled after winning a starting job midseason (Battle). The other an uber-athletic 1st round pick transitioning from corner. Let them develop and any changes can be for depth for the underprrforming Scott or the largely untested, oft injured Anderson.

The questions start with Hill. He seemed to get worse, not better, as the year wore on at FS. The coaches seemed to point a finger at the S play when explaining the poor run D and LB play. And have talked of giving Battle the dot & moving him to FS. Does that mean moving Hill closer to the LOS (where most of his better play happened) or to CB (where he has little boundary exp and would be Hilton's backup?

And if Hill is moved to CB, we assuredly need another S. Scott did not play well and is the highest paid backup on the team. Starting him sends shudders. But cutting him serms reckless given Hill's uncertain play & future and the fact that Anderson has played zero snaps at safety in two years AND is coming off a major injury.

M. Thomas was on the PS last year but was a special teamer when he was last on the roster. As a PS guy, sure. Be cannot be on the 53 playing defensive snaps.

It is a weak S draft class (though thete are some good ones) and a strong/deep FA class.

I think the FO most likely sticks it out with Battle & Hill, but makes the adjustment of Battle at FS & Hill at SS. I think a value vet FA signing is possible and if so, then Hill likely moves to a reserve as a CB/S hybrid/TE stopper and Scott gets cut (but maybe not till Anderson is back). And we maybe play more 3 S looks on 3rd instead of 2 LBs, which would be welcome.

I'd make a run at Winfield if I have $$ left after my targeted DT/OT players are off the board (Reader, L. Williams, Wilkins, Jones, Onwenu, Johnson, Sneed). But outside of DJ & Williams, those guys are longshots. As is Winfield.

If a value FA signing does not happen, I think a pick to replace Scott & save us some cap is likely. But probably Day 3. I think too many other holes for Day 2. Nubin is tempting, though.

(02-29-2024, 03:50 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Onto my 2nd second tier FA position of need, safety.

6.  Safety

A.  Signed

Player, Cap, Dead Cap, FA Yr, PFF L3, 2023 Snaps
1. D. Hill: $3,181,913; $6,894,144; '26/'27, 51.6/58.1/x, 1,091 D + 82 ST.
2. Battle: $1,210,231; $654,555; '27; 82.5/x/x, 525 D + 190 ST
-----------------Starter Line----------
3. Scott: $4,300,000; $2,000,000; '26; 41.6/54.2/47.5, 571 D + 190 ST.
4. Anderson (inj): $1,061,521; $153,042; '26; x/x/x; Zero D + 123 ST.
------------Reserve Line---------

B.  Unsigned

Player, FA Status, PFF L3, 2023 Snaps
------------Reserve Line--------
1. M. Thomas: UFA, x/58.6/52.9, Zero
-----------PS/Future's Line-------

C.  Analysis

Like CB, at one level this seems relatively straighforward. We carry 4. We have 4 signed. One is a rookie who excelled after winning a starting job midseason (Battle). The other an uber-athletic 1st round pick transitioning from corner. Let them develop and any changes can be for depth for the underprrforming Scott or the largely untested, oft injured Anderson.

The questions start with Hill. He seemed to get worse, not better, as the year wore on at FS. The coaches seemed to point a finger at the S play when explaining the poor run D and LB play. And have talked of giving Battle the dot & moving him to FS. Does that mean moving Hill closer to the LOS (where most of his better play happened) or to CB (where he has little boundary exp and would be Hilton's backup?

And if Hill is moved to CB, we assuredly need another S. Scott did not play well and is the highest paid backup on the team. Starting him sends shudders. But cutting him serms reckless given Hill's uncertain play & future and the fact that Anderson has played zero snaps at safety in two years AND is coming off a major injury.

M. Thomas was on the PS last year but was a special teamer when he was last on the roster. As a PS guy, sure. Be cannot be on the 53 playing defensive snaps.

It is a weak S draft class (though thete are some good ones) and a strong/deep FA class.

I think the FO most likely sticks it out with Battle & Hill, but makes the adjustment of Battle at FS & Hill at SS. I think a value vet FA signing is possible and if so, then Hill likely moves to a reserve as a CB/S hybrid/TE stopper and Scott gets cut (but maybe not till Anderson is back). And we maybe play more 3 S looks on 3rd instead of 2 LBs, which would be welcome.

I'd make a run at Winfield if I have $$ left after my targeted DT/OT players are off the board (Reader, L. Williams, Wilkins, Jones, Onwenu, Johnson, Sneed). But outside of DJ & Williams, those guys are longshots. As is Winfield.

If a value FA signing does not happen, I think a pick to replace Scott & save us some cap is likely. But probably Day 3. I think too many other holes for Day 2. Nubin is tempting, though.


What would you think about signining Mike Edwards as a FA he’s local(Winton Woods) and has been solid for both TB and KC

(02-29-2024, 03:50 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: It is a weak S draft class (though thete are some good ones) and a strong/deep FA class.

According to this the Bengals might be looking to replace Scott with a better veteran.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bengals-are-reportedly-keeping-their-eyes-on-the-veteran-safety-market-in-free-agency/ar-BB1jbkHD

Quote:The Cincinnati Bengals gambled at the safety position last year. They not only lost, they lost bad. 


Upon losing both Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell a year ago this month, Cincinnati felt ready to replace both by elevating Dax Hill and signing Nick Scott in free agency. They also drafted Jordan Battle to round out a trio with upside. 

A season of allowing explosive plays and missed tackles ensued. Hill struggled to find consistency, Scott was essentially benched for Battle, and the Bengals sound like they're not trying to relive that nightmare again.

This is not to say that neither Hill nor Battle are poor players now, or will be poor this season. They simply cannot enter the 2024 season without establishing a sense of security at the position. That means replacing Scott with a new veteran player. 
Bengals are right to desire a new veteran free agent safety
To best maximize both Hill and Battle in 2024, a more capable veteran to replace Scott to play the traditional free/post safety would go a long way.

Cincinnati.com's Kelsey Conway reports that is what the Bengals are looking for.

"League sources tell The Enquirer the Bengals are checking in and have shown interest in the safety market ahead of free agency. This makes sense given the uncertainty of where Hill fits in Cincinnati’s defense. It seems highly likely the Bengals will address the safety position with a veteran." - Cincinnati.com's Kelsey Conway

This doesn't have to break the bank, especially with free agency dollars expected to be spent on defensive tackle and offensive tackle, but the Bengals need trust at the position after last year's debacle. Communication errors led to too many instances of bad positioning, and the athleticism of both Hill and Scott wasn't enough to compensate for it. 

Scott, unfortunately, has never been a reliable starter at the position. The Bengals believed they could make him one instantly only to be proven vastly wrong. Remedying this by cutting and replacing him would not only better the defense as a whole, it could salvage their decision to spend a first-round pick on Hill.

Related: Bengals need to admit defeat with blatant mistake they made last year

Dax Hill can find his true role with a new safety in the mix
Should the Bengals sign a true safety in free agency, the path for playing Hill close to the line of scrimmage becomes clear. He was the team's best defender against tight ends in 2023 and made several impact plays when aligned in or around the box. He's got tremendous quickness and takes great angles thanks to instincts he developed playing a similar position as a college player at Michigan. He's always been a projection at a free safety in comparison. 

But wait, wouldn't that mean Hill is no longer one of the Bengals' two "true" safeties? Yes, but this isn't so cut-and-dry. Battle would continue to be a half-field safety, befitting for his skillset, and a capable free safety would play alongside him deep in the secondary.

Hill would still see the field, and for most of the game as well.

Against 11 and 12 personnel, the two most common offensive personnel groupings, the Bengals ranked eighth in the league in two separate "Dime" personnel packages, one with three defensive linemen on the field, and the other with four (per Sports Info Solutions).

"Dime" personnel entails six defensive backs on the field, which is typically either four cornerbacks and two safeties, or three of each. Three of each is considered "Big Dime."

The Bengals were already among the league leaders in using "Big Dime" last year, and that includes the final weeks of the season when Scott hardly played. They could play even more of this grouping featuring two safeties deep and Hill acting as the third near the line of scrimmage.

Signing a veteran safety to replace Scott, who should not be on the team this season, would be a clear signal that defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo does not want to watch last season's mistakes repeat themselves. Hill can be utilized properly, and Battle would get plenty of playing time as well. 

(03-01-2024, 04:18 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: According to this the Bengals might be looking to replace Scott with a better veteran.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bengals-are-reportedly-keeping-their-eyes-on-the-veteran-safety-market-in-free-agency/ar-BB1jbkHD

Not a big fish in FA, but I wonder if they could talk Micah Hyde into signing here before he retires.  

(03-01-2024, 06:03 PM)samhain Wrote: Not a big fish in FA, but I wonder if they could talk Micah Hyde into signing here before he retires.  

I think that the Bengals are in the position to get a seriously good, older veteran that might be looking to make a Superbowl run.  And just think of how the young secondary would benefit from a voice of experience helping them develop that chemistry?