Hey, I would love to draft Newton or Murphy. It is the trenches and a good OT should be available in the 2nd.

BJ Hill is on the last year of his deal as other's said. Newton could be a very good pass rushing 3-tech, better than BJ and Murphy
can play both 3-tech and NT even if he seems undersized, versatility is a great thing.

(03-22-2024, 02:40 PM)Jpoore Wrote: Not necessarily…. Do you think hill is gonna be a rotational player now? Or that rankings is gonna play every snap? Rankins is a pass rush specialist type of DT. Rankins played less than 600 snaps last year… a 3-tech this year would be a rotational yes, but next year would be a starter, or at least be getting starter level snaps… BJ hill played almost 800 snaps which is insane…. You would like at LEAST a 3 DT rotation played 650-700 snaps. In this scenario Newton would be the 3 down DT, and rankins would play a lot at the other DT spot. Also I believe we tag Higgins next year too. Why do y’all think rankins isn’t gonna decline? Much more faith in him than I have.

Rankins played nearly 60% of the defensive snaps last year, far from simply a pass rush specialist.  And I highly doubt Hill is going to see 71% of the snaps again due to having another quality 3 tech to rotate with.  You don't usually want to dress 3 3 techs on gamedays because an edge rusher can take up a lot of the obvious pass rush snaps, if needed.  Particularly true if you have an edge/3 tech tweener like Sample that can do both.  

But even arguing that Rankins will experience a big fall off in the 2nd year of his deal and Newton will overtake him and start as a sophomore, there's another problem.  An OT plays 100% of the snaps, when healthy.  A WR plays 70-90% depending on if they are a 1, 2, or 3.  A 3 tech, even having to slide to NT on passing downs, is still only playing like 70%, at best, as evidenced by Hill. And with Rankins still on the roster, they won't sniff that kind of snap share.

(03-22-2024, 04:55 PM)Whatever Wrote: Rankins played nearly 60% of the defensive snaps last year, far from simply a pass rush specialist.  And I highly doubt Hill is going to see 71% of the snaps again due to having another quality 3 tech to rotate with.  You don't usually want to dress 3 3 techs on gamedays because an edge rusher can take up a lot of the obvious pass rush snaps, if needed.  Particularly true if you have an edge/3 tech tweener like Sample that can do both.  

But even arguing that Rankins will experience a big fall off in the 2nd year of his deal and Newton will overtake him and start as a sophomore, there's another problem.  An OT plays 100% of the snaps, when healthy.  A WR plays 70-90% depending on if they are a 1, 2, or 3.  A 3 tech, even having to slide to NT on passing downs, is still only playing like 70%, at best, as evidenced by Hill.  And with Rankins still on the roster, they won't sniff that kind of snap share.

Exactly.

DL are only playing 80% or more snaps if they are either A) elite, or B) the depth is so bad that they can't afford to rotate enough.
Hill falls into the latter category.

In an ideal scenario where the Bengals don't have an elite interior guy, no DT is playing >60% of the defensive snaps.
You're rotating between 3-4 DTs, maybe even swinging a DE inside to help on clear passing downs.
Bengals really need to do more of this anyway with Hubbard/Sample/Murphy.

Myles Murphy is going into his sophomore year looking at a 40% snap share. The Bengals have set themselves up to take whoever they have highest on their board and history shows that's that is their draft strategy.

Jer'Zhan Newton is a top 20 draft prospect. I would not be surprised if he is the pick at 18.

(03-22-2024, 04:55 PM)Whatever Wrote: Rankins played nearly 60% of the defensive snaps last year, far from simply a pass rush specialist.  And I highly doubt Hill is going to see 71% of the snaps again due to having another quality 3 tech to rotate with.  You don't usually want to dress 3 3 techs on gamedays because an edge rusher can take up a lot of the obvious pass rush snaps, if needed.  Particularly true if you have an edge/3 tech tweener like Sample that can do both.  

But even arguing that Rankins will experience a big fall off in the 2nd year of his deal and Newton will overtake him and start as a sophomore, there's another problem.  An OT plays 100% of the snaps, when healthy.  A WR plays 70-90% depending on if they are a 1, 2, or 3.  A 3 tech, even having to slide to NT on passing downs, is still only playing like 70%, at best, as evidenced by Hill.  And with Rankins still on the roster, they won't sniff that kind of snap share.

Still, there is no guarantee an OT you get in the 1st is better than one you get in the 2nd.

You also never know if a pass rushing DT like Newton or Murphy would make more of an impact than a 1st round OT sitting behind Trent Brown.

(03-22-2024, 05:28 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Still, there is no guarantee an OT you get in the 1st is better than one you get in the 2nd.

You also never know if a pass rushing DT like Newton or Murphy would make more of an impact than a 1st round OT sitting behind Trent Brown.

I'd hit DT and WR in the first 2 rounds then take an OT like Fisher or Kiran Amegadjie in the 3rd.

(03-22-2024, 05:39 PM)pulses Wrote: I'd hit DT and WR in the first 2 rounds then take an OT like Fisher or Kiran Amegadjie in the 3rd.

I like that way of going about it too. Lot's of ways to get it done. I was for Latham but him not doing any workouts puts him among some
of the other OL busts we have taken before in Ogbuehi, Price and Carman. I have warmed up to Mims if Fuaga is gone at 18 though. But 
you never know how the FO and coaches have their big board.

(03-22-2024, 05:52 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I like that way of going about it too. Lot's of ways to get it done. I was for Latham but him not doing any workouts puts him among some
of the other OL busts we have taken before in Ogbuehi, Price and Carman. I have warmed up to Mims if Fuaga is gone at 18 though. But 
you never know how the FO and coaches have their big board.

If Quinyon Mitchell is there at 18 I wouldn't be shocked if they took him.

(03-22-2024, 12:38 PM)Whatever Wrote:
With Rankins under contract for 2 years, any 3 tech you draft is going to be a rotation player for 2 years.  Then you look at RT and we'll need a starter in a year.  WR, we need an immediate starter, plus Higgins will be gone in a year.  It doesn't make sense, especially since the rookie will have a tough time earning snaps this year between Rankins and Hill.  And Hill actually grades pretty well.  Kind of feels like you're underselling him to try and make 3 tech seem like a bigger need than it is.

Besides which, they are going to try to get Murphy on the field more in pass rush situations, which means we'll have edge rushers kicking inside on obvious passing downs as well.

Yes! And we should have two quality ones to play in rotation, and in passing situations have both on the field.

As with every year with the Bengals it's going to come down to who they have as the best player on their board when their pick comes up. They won't move up and they might move down.

That being said, if Alt, Fashanu, Latham, Fuaga and Mims are off the board, they aren't going to force an O-line pick. Quite honestly, even if some of those guys are on the board, I don't think we go OT in round 1.

(03-22-2024, 05:39 PM)pulses Wrote: I'd hit DT and WR in the first 2 rounds then take an OT like Fisher or Kiran Amegadjie in the 3rd.

I am leaning that way myself. A rookie doesn't have to start at RT now.

(03-22-2024, 05:28 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Still, there is no guarantee an OT you get in the 1st is better than one you get in the 2nd.

You also never know if a pass rushing DT like Newton or Murphy would make more of an impact than a 1st round OT sitting behind Trent Brown.

There's no guarantee that any player you get in the 1st is better than one you get in the 2nd.  No guarantee that Fiske, Jenkins, Smith, etc won't be better than Murphy and/or Newton.

A 3 tech might make impact, but it's a minimal one, on paper.  Murphy only played 28% of the snaps last year subbing at two spots.  Murphy/Newton are going to play more than that behind both Rankins and Hill?

Beyond that, our starting RT and top 2 backup OT's are UFA and our starting 3 tech will still be under contract.  Not to mention we don't have a starting caliber WR3 and our WR2 will be an UFA.  Trying to figure out why 3 tech should be a draft priority, especially without a starting quality NT on the roster.

(03-22-2024, 09:58 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I am leaning that way myself. A rookie doesn't have to start at RT now.

The kid from Yale has huge upside.

(03-22-2024, 04:55 PM)Whatever Wrote: Rankins played nearly 60% of the defensive snaps last year, far from simply a pass rush specialist.  And I highly doubt Hill is going to see 71% of the snaps again due to having another quality 3 tech to rotate with.  You don't usually want to dress 3 3 techs on gamedays because an edge rusher can take up a lot of the obvious pass rush snaps, if needed.  Particularly true if you have an edge/3 tech tweener like Sample that can do both.  

But even arguing that Rankins will experience a big fall off in the 2nd year of his deal and Newton will overtake him and start as a sophomore, there's another problem.  An OT plays 100% of the snaps, when healthy.  A WR plays 70-90% depending on if they are a 1, 2, or 3.  A 3 tech, even having to slide to NT on passing downs, is still only playing like 70%, at best, as evidenced by Hill. And with Rankins still on the roster, they won't sniff that kind of snap share.

60%,, which means there’s a 60-40 split with someone… I don’t expect a rt to start year 1. So we’re arguing whose more valuable in year 2? It’s DT. A good-great DT is a game wrecker. When you have burrow, he can make rt look better. But 70% of a great DT is better than 100% of a rt. Makes more of an impact.

(03-22-2024, 10:39 PM)Whatever Wrote: There's no guarantee that any player you get in the 1st is better than one you get in the 2nd.  No guarantee that Fiske, Jenkins, Smith, etc won't be better than Murphy and/or Newton.

A 3 tech might make impact, but it's a minimal one, on paper.  Murphy only played 28% of the snaps last year subbing at two spots.  Murphy/Newton are going to play more than that behind both Rankins and Hill?

Beyond that, our starting RT and top 2 backup OT's are UFA and our starting 3 tech will still be under contract.  Not to mention we don't have a starting caliber WR3 and our WR2 will be an UFA.  Trying to figure out why 3 tech should be a draft priority, especially without a starting quality NT on the roster.

A great 3 tech makes a masssive impact. Bj hill will be Gone after this year, and tee Higgins will likely be tagged next year too… I believe we’re gonna switch to more of no nt defense(of course we’ll have a NT but it’s not gonna be the same as it was with reader in terms of defensive philosophy.) a great 3-tech makes more of an impact than a great rt. Newton should see a 35-40% snap share as a rookie, and 60%+ in year 2.

(03-22-2024, 09:40 AM)Whatever Wrote: We had 2 3-techs in Hill and Carter, then signed Rankins, and now people think we're spending a 1st on another 3 tech?

Seriously.

(03-22-2024, 09:58 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I am leaning that way myself. A rookie doesn't have to start at RT now.

No. And if Trent goes down week 1. We have no one. Just get tha tackle and move on. McKinnley sitting there in the 3rd. Go Latham then go WR in 2 and then go mickinnley

No offense to those who like Newton, but he could be a slight reach at pick 18. The site I follow lists him at 33 overall on their big board.

That could be related to his foot injury though which caused him to miss both combine and pro day. He's kind of wobbled some, in and out, of being the first DT off the board throughout the year.

(03-23-2024, 09:43 AM)JoeyB2023 Wrote: No.  And if Trent goes down week 1.  We have no one.  Just get tha tackle and move on.  McKinnley sitting there in the 3rd.  Go Latham then go WR in 2 and then go mickinnley

Latham will be gone at 18. So you are willing to reach for any OT at 18 then? 

(03-23-2024, 12:12 PM)sandwedge Wrote: Latham will be gone at 18. So you are willing to reach for any OT at 18 then? 

Newton is the #25 prospect, on average, and you're good reaching for him, but it's an issue reaching for Fautanu, Mims, or Guyton who are #22,#23, and #28 respectively?

(03-23-2024, 03:02 PM)Whatever Wrote: Newton is the #25 prospect, on average, and you're good reaching for him, but it's an issue reaching for Fautanu, Mims, or Guyton who are #22,#23, and #28 respectively?

I wouldn't spend the 18 on Guyton or Mims. Fautanu YES because Munoz gave that kid huge praise and said he would be good.