I wanted to make this thread, as it relates to the mock drafts that some of us have started making in the Draft Central space.

For 2025, Bengals have a projected cap remaining of $60 mill.
The Bengals can free up the following cap by cutting these players:
Rankins - $10.5 mill
Cappa - $8 mill
Stone - $6.5 mill
Hubbard - $9.6 mill

Any/all of those guys helps add a decent chunk of $$ to the available cap, and with so many positions the Bengals will open from impending FAs and upgrades in general, people are starting to think up their wish lists of guys they want added who could hit FA (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/_/year/2025)

So my question is - Who are some guys you would like to see added in FA next year (or re-signed in Higgins' case), about what cost do you think their value is, and how much would you be willing to spend to sign them?
For example, you may say to retain Higgins, you think his value may be $25-30 mill but you'd only be willing to keep him if he'd sign for $21 mill or less.

*And yes, it's ok to be talking about this even though there is still 1+ game remaining in the season. It's possible to look at 2025 and root for this season in parallel

A list of top free agents: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2025-nfl-free-agent-rankings

(01-03-2025, 05:34 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: A list of top free agents: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2025-nfl-free-agent-rankings

Well look who is number 1 on that list...
"Higgins figures to be one of the most sought-after players on the market again in 2025."


Also, I like that PFF lists a comparative player and rather than list the amount they made, they list the percentage of the cap they occupied to give an indication of what the FA might end up commanding.
For example, 6% of the cap would be $15-16 mill.

(01-03-2025, 05:36 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Well look who is number 1 on that list...
"Higgins figures to be one of the most sought-after players on the market again in 2025."


Also, I like that PFF lists a comparative player and rather than list the amount they made, they list the percentage of the cap they occupied to give an indication of what the FA might end up commanding.
For example, 6% of the cap would be $15-16 mill.

I thought it was interesting as well. As fan-GMs we often geek out about the top FAs. The FA is our own. 

If Golladay is their comparison point at 9.8%, and the salary cap is projected to be $273.3m in 2025, that would be $26.8m/yr.

Three guys I'm interested in for free agency.

Osa Odighizuwa 3T Dallas- 4 years 84 million(42 guranteed)
Zach Baun LB Eagles 3 years 48 Million( 32 Guranteed)

Mechi Becton RG Eagles 3 years 36 million(21 Guranteed)

(01-03-2025, 06:29 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: If Golladay is their comparison point at 9.8%, and the salary cap is projected to be $273.3m in 2025, that would be $26.8m/yr.

Feels pricy for a WR2, but Jaylen Waddle makes $28.25 mill APY and is second fiddle to Tyreek Hill, so it may happen.
Obviously in the case of MIA and also in CIN, we're talking for 1A and 1B rather than a true WR2, but still.

With Chase likely going to end up getting $35+ mill APY, Bengals could end up investing $60+ mill into their top two pass catchers.
Potentially $100+ mill APY when including Burrow.

I know the cap is >$250 mill nowadays, but man 40% on 3 players, all of which are on the offense, feels like a ton.

(01-03-2025, 06:30 PM)J24 Wrote: Three guys I'm interested in for free agency.

Osa Odighizuwa 3T Dallas- 4 years 84 million(42 guranteed)
Zach Baun LB Eagles 3 years 48 Million( 32 Guranteed)

Mechi Becton RG Eagles 3 years 36 million(21 Guranteed)

I can't get on board with passing on BJ Hill for Odighizuwa, especially at that price point. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/O/OdigOs00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HillB.00.htm

When you compare their stat lines over the past 4 years, they're pretty much the same player. I'd rather stay with a guy whose been part of the team, is a good fit and respected by this team already than to overpay for similar production simply because the guy is younger. The Bengals drafted a pair for the DL last year, they likely still need to draft another and sign another lesser expensive vet to go along with BJ Hill and the younger guys. I think that if the Bengals are aggressive with negotiations, they could likely get BJ Hill for 3yrs/$40-42M.

Baun may be a slight improvement to pair with Wilson, but at $16M/per, that seems a bit high.

I do like your idea of adding Mechi Becton at RG, he seems to have found his place there after flaming out as a high profile tackle prospect. I feel like trading Cappa's savings and investing into Becton would pay off well for the team.

(01-03-2025, 07:06 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I can't get on board with passing on BJ Hill for Odighizuwa, especially at that price point. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/O/OdigOs00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HillB.00.htm

When you compare their stat lines over the past 4 years, they're pretty much the same player. I'd rather stay with a guy whose been part of the team, is a good fit and respected by this team already than to overpay for similar production simply because the guy is younger. The Bengals drafted a pair for the DL last year, they likely still need to draft another and sign another lesser expensive vet to go along with BJ Hill and the younger guys. I think that if the Bengals are aggressive with negotiations, they could likely get BJ Hill for 3yrs/$40-42M.

Baun may be a slight improvement to pair with Wilson, but at $16M/per, that seems a bit high.

I do like your idea of adding Mechi Becton at RG, he seems to have found his place there after flaming out as a high profile tackle prospect. I feel like trading Cappa's savings and investing into Becton would pay off well for the team.

Pollack has familiarity with Becton, being as he was the OL coach when the Jets drafted Becton back in 2020.
I have to wonder if Pollack was not fond of Becton, as he could have lobbied for him this past offseason when he hit FA but he ended up signing with PHI for a measly $2.75 mill instead.

Becton is playing well for PHI at RG and deserves a pay increase, but I have to wonder if Becton left a sour taste in Pollack's mouth that he may not want him in Cincy regardless.

(01-03-2025, 07:15 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Pollack has familiarity with Becton, being as he was the OL coach when the Jets drafted Becton back in 2020.
I have to wonder if Pollack was not fond of Becton, as he could have lobbied for him this past offseason when he hit FA but he ended up signing with PHI for a measly $2.75 mill instead.

Becton is playing well for PHI at RG and deserves a pay increase, but I have to wonder if Becton left a sour taste in Pollack's mouth that he may not want him in Cincy regardless.

Becton's troubles could have been the result of a number of things, all of which likely culminated in a massive headache for Pollack to deal with. I've seen a few high profile Tackle prospects that flamed out a T that went onto have very successful careers as Guards. I'm just saying that based on how he has performed this season, he would be worth taking a shot at. Keep in mind that the Eagles do love to run the ball...

(01-03-2025, 05:34 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: A list of top free agents: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2025-nfl-free-agent-rankings

Gimme that dude on the top of that list...

(01-03-2025, 05:34 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: A list of top free agents: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2025-nfl-free-agent-rankings

What they have listed for Chase Young and Milton Williams, two guys who I think would be upgrades on DL, feels about right although maybe a bit too expensive.
They say Chase Young, at the time of writing, was Top 30 among EDGE in QB pressures and pressure rate, so he's a high end DE2. He'll average 6-10 sacks a year.

Young - $16 mill (6.4% of cap)
Williams - $17 mill (6.6% of cap)

What I would be more comfortable going with for them - $12-14 mill each.

I think BJ Hill will be able to be kept closer to $10 mill though, but he's older than Williams and may be more of a short term stopgap rather than a 3-year long-term coverage.

Sam Hubbard is set to make $11.6 mill, which I feel is definitely not worth the production we're likely to see from him as he turns 30 this summer.
I'd rather spend the extra few mill on someone younger and stronger in the pass rush in Chase Young.

With that said, I can see why some would want to maybe dip into the draft for DL instead, as DL is expensive to address in FA always.
The cheaper FA positions are TE, SAF, and IOL comparatively.

James Daniels also feels about right with that estimate of around 4% of the cap, which would put him at $10-11 mill.
And I'd pay that.

(01-03-2025, 07:27 PM)ochocincos Wrote: What they have listed for Chase Young and Milton Williams, two guys who I think would be upgrades on DL, feels about right although maybe a bit too expensive.
They say Chase Young, at the time of writing, was Top 30 among EDGE in QB pressures and pressure rate, so he's a high end DE2. He'll average 6-10 sacks a year.

Young - $16 mill (6.4% of cap)
Williams - $17 mill (6.6% of cap)

What I would be more comfortable going with for them - $12-14 mill each.

I think BJ Hill will be able to be kept closer to $10 mill though, but he's older than Williams and may be more of a short term stopgap rather than a 3-year long-term coverage.

Sam Hubbard is set to make $11.6 mill, which I feel is definitely not worth the production we're likely to see from him as he turns 30 this summer.
I'd rather spend the extra few mill on someone younger and stronger in the pass rush in Chase Young.

With that said, I can see why some would want to maybe dip into the draft for DL instead, as DL is expensive to address in FA always.
The cheaper FA positions are TE, SAF, and IOL comparatively.

Seems like every year we lull ourselves into thinking that this player or that player might sign for "X" amount, and then we're all astonished at the opening of the contract signing values and wonder why the Bengals weren't in on the first wave of signings. BJ Hill has been a consistent, very durable player. I would have no issues with the team signing him to a 3 year deal for anything under $45M. The two DL we drafted look like they actually have a chance to live, let one of them displace BJ Hill naturally, the way it should go. I'd still like to see the Bengals draft another interior DL (I don't care if 3T or NT, and sign another IDL vet at a value deal)

Now DE is another story. Hubbard is looking like injuries are going to be the shorter end to his career and Myles Murphy still does not look convincing to me. THAT is where a heavy investment in an outside player could pay the biggest dividends in free agency on the defensive side of the ball. (to my thinking, anyway) I feel like they need to draft one and sign one at the DE position just to keep a strong rotation going.

(01-03-2025, 07:43 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Seems like every year we lull ourselves into thinking that this player or that player might sign for "X" amount, and then we're all astonished at the opening of the contract signing values and wonder why the Bengals weren't in on the first wave of signings. BJ Hill has been a consistent, very durable player. I would have no issues with the team signing him to a 3 year deal for anything under $45M. The two DL we drafted look like they actually have a chance to live, let one of them displace BJ Hill naturally, the way it should go. I'd still like to see the Bengals draft another interior DL (I don't care if 3T or NT, and sign another IDL vet at a value deal)

Now DE is another story. Hubbard is looking like injuries are going to be the shorter end to his career and Myles Murphy still does not look convincing to me. THAT is where a heavy investment in an outside player could pay the biggest dividends in free agency on the defensive side of the ball. (to my thinking, anyway) I feel like they need to draft one and sign one at the DE position just to keep a strong rotation going.

Sign a 30 year old DT to a 3-year deal who isn't currently near Pro Bowl level?
I feel like that's too risky.
I like him for 1 more year, maybe 2, but he's solid for now, could be well at replacement level by Year 3.


I wouldn't sign Hill for more than he has been getting paid, personally ($10 mill APY).
I was expecting a 5-8 sack a year guy when they signed him to his extension and he never got to 5.0 sacks once in 3 seasons on his new deal.

(01-03-2025, 07:50 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Sign a 30 year old DT to a 3-year deal who isn't currently near Pro Bowl level?
I feel like that's too risky.
I like him for 1 more year, maybe 2, but he's solid for now, could be well at replacement level by Year 3.


I wouldn't sign Hill for more than he has been getting paid, personally ($10 mill APY).
I was expecting a 5-8 sack a year guy when they signed him to his extension and he never got to 5.0 sacks once in 3 seasons on his new deal.

The alternative younger, more expensive options at 3T haven't demonstrated being consistent 5-8 sack guys, either. But the overall production is what counts, BJ has decent tackle, QB hits and QB pressures, Trey Hendrickson would sure miss BJ Hill being around. (I would think, anyway)

(01-03-2025, 07:43 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: BJ Hill has been a consistent, very durable player. I would have no issues with the team signing him to a 3 year deal for anything under $45M.

Don't see 3 years happening and I think even a 2 year deal would only really be a 2 year deal in name only with an easy out after 1. Current Bengals really don't like paying (or really playing) guys in their 30s. Any BJ Hill contract is him exclusively in his 30s. 

If Ted Karras is a starter next year, he'll be the first Week 1 starting-22 player who was in their age 32 season or later for the Bengals since Riley Reiff in 2021.

(01-03-2025, 07:59 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Don't see 3 years happening and I think even a 2 year deal would only really be a 2 year deal in name only with an easy out after 1. Current Bengals really don't like paying (or really playing) guys in their 30s. Any BJ Hill contract is him exclusively in his 30s. 

If Ted Karras is a starter next year, he'll be the first Week 1 starting-22 player who was in their age 32 season or later for the Bengals since Riley Reiff in 2021.

Then they will have learned nothing from watching guys like Andrew Whitworth and Calais Campbell play strong football, way past the age of 30.

If we are going to go down the percentage of cap per player, there are a few things we need to consider.

Each team has different cap dollars based on rolling over prior year cap dollars. Bengals have 279 million in 2025 to start as they have 5 million to roll over.

I have stated this in other threads, long term contracts can be structured to meet the demands of guaranteed money and include large signing bonuses. The signing bonuses can be exercised over the term of the contract. So, a 60 million dollar signing bonus for a 4-year contract can have a cap hit of 15 million each year for 4 years. The bonus goes toward guaranteed money as well.

I think there is confusion for simplicity's sake that if a player gets a 100-million-dollar contract for 4 years the cap hit is 25 million a year. Most long-term contracts have signing bonuses and of course guaranteed money. These two factors make the cap hit less in the early years than the 25 million figure.

For example, Chase has a cap hit for a 1 year 2025 option by the Bengals for 21.6 million. The Bengals could sign Chase to a long term and contract, pay him a higher average salary per year, but not pay much more than the 21.6 cap in years one and 2 of the contract.


The Bengals are looking at massive contracts for Chase and possibly Trey and Tee so the structure of these deals to make them cap friendlier can be used by the team if
they so choose.

For those who say the Bengals do not structure deals, you need to look at current deals. We get dead money of we terminate deals early. If we cut Hubbard, Rankins or any of the guys mentioned by others, we save cap dollars and save cash, but we also incur dead money for those contracts due to signing bonuses. 

(01-03-2025, 08:12 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Then they will have learned nothing from watching guys like Andrew Whitworth and Calais Campbell play strong football, way past the age of 30.

There's always exceptions, and yes, the Andrew Whitworth episode played out terribly for the Bengals... But I don't hate their aversion to long term commitments to non QBs over 30. Father Time is undefeated, and I'd rather be a year too early than a year too late. I wasn't mad about DJ Reader this past off-season. Having said that... Campbell would've been a nice one year rental.

(01-03-2025, 08:12 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Then they will have learned nothing from watching guys like Andrew Whitworth and Calais Campbell play strong football, way past the age of 30.

I think we can all agree the Bengals FO doesn't learn much, but I will also say it's not the same situation as Whit or Campbell. Andrew Whitworth was a Pro Bowler playing at a very high level (but passed over for higher awards because of Joe Thomas in the AFCN) in his age 31 season, Campbell was 1st Team All-Pro in his age 31 season.

There's a large difference between guys playing at a very high level being able to keep doing that in their 30s versus a guy who is average continuing to be so into his 30s. The latter guys tend to fall off then because they have no extra space to fall from that isn't below average.

Think Michael Johnson vs Calais Campbell. 
Or for baseball Brandon Phillips vs Joe Morgan.

BJ Hill is okay, but he's much more Michael Johnson than Calais Campbell. He's not much of a dropoff away from being untenable as a starter.