**NOTICE** THIS THREAD IS FROM MARCH 2019.  SEE NEW POSTS AT END **NOTICE**



ESPN and Next Gen Stats came up with a new stats on pass rush called Pass Rush Win Rate (PRWR).  It measures what percentage of time a pass rusher beats his blocker in 2.5 seconds or less.  Five games into the season I saw a story on this stat and it happened to show the leaders.  Carl Lawson was 3rd with a PRWR of 41%.  After the season was over I went to see how he finished, but he was not in the final rankings at all because he did not play enough snaps to qualify.  The leader for OLB/DE was Robert Quinn with 40%.

I have no idea if Lawson could have maintained his 41% PRWR, and that is why they have minimum requirements to qualify as league leader, but it was good to know that he was still getting pressure even though he was not getting sacks.

I know it is better to get a sack than just get pressure, but stats show that the numbers drop considerably for QBs when they have to throw under pressure.  So even if Lawson was not getting the sacks he was getting the pressure that will slow down a passing game.

I could not find any list or any individual player stats for PRWR other than the top ten for DE/OLB and DT (Geno was top 5 with 32%).  So I don't even know what Lawsons PRWR was for the entire season.  The list I saw in the story was just through 5 games.


BTW I think the inverse of this stat that measures Pass Blocking Win Rate is even more important.  It is almost impossible to rate pass protection on sacks because some teams run quick passing games and some QBs hold on to the ball forever.

I'm looking forward to seeing him on the field again. I know some have stressed caution as it typically takes defensive lineman more than a year to get back to 100%, but I believe Lawson has the reputation as a workout warrior and gym rat so he could be ahead of schedule.

Since you mention him. Apparently Quinn is available via trade. And the Dolphins are doing stupid ass trades right now. Wouldnt take much to get him and they are paying some of his salary.

As others have noted at least on our team recently we have seen it take guys a year to get back to form. Which hurts because Lawson needs to be a big contributor.

(03-19-2019, 08:38 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Since you mention him. Apparently Quinn is available via trade. And the Dolphins are doing stupid ass trades right now. Wouldnt take much to get him and they are paying some of his salary.

Hasn't he fallen off a cliff lately?  

Losng Lawson seemed to really affect our pass rush last year. Definitely need that other edge rusher opposite Carlos.

(03-19-2019, 08:38 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Since you mention him. Apparently Quinn is available via trade. And the Dolphins are doing stupid ass trades right now. Wouldnt take much to get him and they are paying some of his salary.

Lol, looked up Quinn's wikipedia and right now it says...

"After a short stint with the Dolphins, he was traded to the Cowboys for a 2023 10th round pick."

So apparently some people agree that the Dolphins are doing stupid trades.

It's kinda crazy seeing Robert Quinn will only be 29...Hes been around forever.

In the 4 games where Lawson played more than 45% of the games the Bengals were 4-0, had 12 sacks, and 36 QB hits. Projected for a full 16 game season that's 48 sacks and 144 QB hits.

In the 10 losses the Bengals had in which Carl Lawson played no more than 35% of the snaps the Bengals had 11 sacks and 31 QB hits. Projected for a full 16 game season that is 18 sacks and 50 QB hits.

Now in fairness the Bengals had 2 wins without Lawson ( Bucs and Raiders) and the pass rush was effective in both. With 11 sacks and 16 QB Hits.
Even though he had one Sack on the season the Stats show that he is a valuable peace to the Defense.

Lawson got drafted where he was because of health, not talent. Hoping for a good year from him.

(03-19-2019, 06:32 PM)NKURyan Wrote: I'm looking forward to seeing him on the field again. I know some have stressed caution as it typically takes defensive lineman more than a year to get back to 100%, but I believe Lawson has the reputation as a workout warrior and gym rat so he could be ahead of schedule.

You could argue the same thing about Geno, and look at his first season back after the ACL (it wasn't pretty). Big guys it takes a bit longer for the knee to come around. If Lawson's back in form this year...Great! If not, then 2020 it is. But he SHOULD be back to his QB terrorizing self eventually, and that's a good thing.

I don't expect to see much from Lawson or Glasgow either one this year. They'll be on the field and trying, but it just takes a while physically and mentally. I am looking forward to seeing what Ringo brings to the table this year.

(03-20-2019, 08:09 AM)Sled21 Wrote: I don't expect to see much from Lawson or Glasgow either one this year. They'll be on the field and trying, but it just takes a while physically and mentally. I am looking forward to seeing what Ringo brings to the table this year.

ACL recovery is an easy rehab for most Athletes now a days. So I would not worry that much about it. I know that Geno and Billings had bad years comming off the rehab but there were other factors that hurt them to.

(03-20-2019, 02:06 PM)Jakeypoo Wrote: ACL recovery is an easy rehab for most Athletes now a days. So I would not worry that much about it. I know that Geno and Billings had bad years comming off the rehab but there were other factors that hurt them to.

Physically, but I think it is more mental. It's hard for them to get back to being comfortable playing the game with people falling all around their knees... it just takes awhile.

It doesn't take a sports analyst to recognize that Carl Lawson is a highly effective pass rusher. But those stats sure do confirm that my eyeballs are still working. As for Lawson coming off of the injury? I wouldn't expect him to be a real force again, until after mid-season. I'm just hoping that his rehab is flawless, and he can participate in camp, at this point in time.

(03-20-2019, 04:57 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Physically, but I think it is more mental. It's hard for them to get back to being comfortable playing the game with people falling all around their knees... it just takes awhile.

(03-20-2019, 06:20 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: It doesn't take a sports analyst to recognize that Carl Lawson is a highly effective pass rusher.  But those stats sure do confirm that my eyeballs are still working.  As for Lawson coming off of the injury?  I wouldn't expect him to be a real force again, until after mid-season.  I'm just hoping that his rehab is flawless, and he can participate in camp, at this point in time.

Most guys come back like nothing happened heck Von Miller Tore his ACL in 2013 and in 2014 he had 14 sacks. There were other factors that people forget about both Billings and Atkins.
Atkins lost MJ who was a big loss and also had to change Coordinators. Billings lost his whole Rookie season and had to adjust to a whole new league.

(03-20-2019, 06:20 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: It doesn't take a sports analyst to recognize that Carl Lawson is a highly effective pass rusher.  But those stats sure do confirm that my eyeballs are still working.  As for Lawson coming off of the injury?  I wouldn't expect him to be a real force again, until after mid-season.  I'm just hoping that his rehab is flawless, and he can participate in camp, at this point in time.

If we knew how long it took him to be back to his old self in college, it might gives us an idea of how long it will take to get back from this one.

(03-20-2019, 07:09 PM)McC Wrote: If we knew how long it took him to be back to his old self in college, it might gives us an idea of how long it will take to get back from this one.

Hmm, maybe.  This IS the much maligned, Bengals medical staff that we're talking about, here..  

If Lawson stays healthy this year I think he could have a breakout year.

does anyone have any idea where I can find more than just the top ten individual finishers in NextGenStats pass rush win percentage? I can't even find where you can pay to get them. All I could find was that the Bengals as a team ranked 27th in PRWR

I found an obscure reference that said Lawson, Hubbard, and Dunlap all finished in the top 50 edge rushers in "pressure rate" according to SIS, but I have no idea what "SIS" is.

Carl Lawson is the John Ross of the defense. Ya, I said it.

If you take the GB game outlier out of his career numbers his sack numbers look like this:

2017: 6
2018: 1
2019: 5 (even padded his stats here with 2 sacks in the week 17 CLE game)

0 FF's with minimal tackles, and we know his run defense is sub-par

He has all the physical tools but gets injured and seems to disappear at times.

I guess year 4 is still his 'rookie' season... when we gonna move on from this guy?