(12-04-2019, 06:56 PM)J24 Wrote: 1.) Gio & Hill did have a lot better lines there first three seasons it isn't even close
2.) Mixon lead the AFC in rushing last year
3.) Mixon career has been disappointing but the coaching staff hasn't used him the right way yet. Particularly in the passing game.

Not sure I totally agree with #3. A little hard use your RB effectively, when you fall way behind from the beginning of the game. That is all Mixon has known since being drafted here.

Mixon will be gone simply because he'll want too much money, not because he's not a good back.

However, Gio hasn't done anything in the last few years and the bloated contract he got this year was not earned. He's had 790 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs, 788 yards receiving and 2 receiving TDs the last 3 seasons. There's no way to make those into decent numbers.

Mixon, behind a decent line will have better numbers than Gio or Hill. But he'll not get that with the Bengals. He'll go to a winner and not look back.

(12-05-2019, 01:04 PM)BengalChris Wrote: Mixon will be gone simply because he'll want too much money, not because he's not a good back.

However, Gio hasn't done anything in the last few years and the bloated contract he got this year was not earned. He's had 790 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs, 788 yards receiving and 2 receiving TDs the last 3 seasons. There's no way to make those into decent numbers.

Mixon, behind a decent line will have better numbers than Gio or Hill. But he'll not get that with the Bengals. He'll go to a winner and not look back.

And that's what people don't get. Geno, AJ, Dunlap are 30/31 years old. AJ might be gone this year. The others will decline at some point.

A guy like Mixon may leave in free agency.

It's not like we'll keep our talent base at this level and keep adding. The bad drafts of the past have crushed us.

(12-05-2019, 01:04 PM)BengalChris Wrote: Mixon will be gone simply because he'll want too much money, 

He'll go to a winner and not look back.

Actually losing teams usually have a lot more money to sign free agents than winning teams.

So if it is abut the money (and it usually is with a player's second contract) then he will probably go to another losing team.

(12-05-2019, 01:46 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually losing teams usually have a lot more money to sign free agents than winning teams.

So if it is abut the money (and it usually is with a player's second contract) then he will probably go to another losing team.

You could be right. It depends on if he wants to win and be a star or rent a Brinks truck.

 

(12-05-2019, 02:34 PM)BengalChris Wrote: You could be right. It depends on if he wants to win and be a star or rent a Brinks truck.

 

For most NFL players the second contract is about money.  After that they may look at going to a winner for less pay.

Some Bengal fans claim free agents won't come here, but they go to bad teams every year.  In fact bad teams usually make more big signings than good teams.

Here's projected top cap space for 2020:

Proj. #NFL 2020 Cap Space (based on a $199M league cap)

1. #Dolphins, $117M
2. #Colts, $102M
3. #Cowboys, $97M
4. #Bills, $89.8M
5. #Texans, $89.7M
…
30. #Steelers, $3M
31. #Vikings, -$1.8M
32. #Falcons, -$8M https://t.co/DNZJN3feFb

— Spotrac (@spotrac) October 21, 2019

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

(12-05-2019, 02:42 PM)fredtoast Wrote: For most NFL players the second contract is about money.  After that they may look at going to a winner for less pay.

Some Bengal fans claim free agents won't come here, but they go to bad teams every year.  In fact bad teams usually make more big signings than good teams.

Ehhhhhhh

Not really true. They just make the big ones we all remember because they were lol levels of failure.

From my admittedly imprecise handcount, there were 18 contracts of $40m+ handed out to non-QB free agents last year. (Not counting trade-and-extensions.)

9 went to teams who either have a winning record and/or are winning their division.
3 went to teams who have a .500 record and are not winning their division.
6 went to teams who are sub-.500.

2 of the league's 5 10-win teams are represented among those 14 contracts.
0 of the league's 1-2 win teams are represented among those 14 contracts.

(12-05-2019, 04:46 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Ehhhhhhh

Not really true. They just make the big ones we all remember because they were lol levels of failure.

From my admittedly imprecise handcount, there were 18 contracts of $40m+ handed out to non-QB free agents last year. (Not counting trade-and-extensions.)

9 went to teams who either have a winning record and/or are winning their division.
3 went to teams who have a .500 record and are not winning their division.
6 went to teams who are sub-.500.

2 of the league's 5 10-win teams are represented among those 14 contracts.
0 of the league's 1-2 win teams are represented among those 14 contracts.

Ehhhhh, very true.

When teams sign free agents this off season none of us will know what their records will be in 2020, so the only way we can discuss players going to "losing teams" is to look at their last years record.

According to Spotrtrac of the top 20 highest paid free agents that switched teams last year 16 of them went to losing teams.  The seven worst teams (5 wins or less) signed 8 of them.  Of those seven teams only one has a winning record this year (SF)

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2019/all/

(12-05-2019, 05:18 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Ehhhhh, very true.

When teams sign free agents this off season none of us will know what their records will be in 2020, so the only way we can discuss players going to "losing teams" is to look at their last years record.

According to Spotrtrac of the top 20 highest paid free agents that switched teams last year 16 of them went to losing teams.  The seven worst teams (5 wins or less) signed 8 of them.  Of those seven teams only one has a winning record this year (SF)

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2019/all/

So now it's no longer about free agency, but other team's free agents? You're changing your stance mid-argument.

You said people chase the paycheck on the 2nd contract, and now you want to ignore all the people who test FA and still stay with a good team?

Okay, Fred.

(12-05-2019, 05:56 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: So now it's no longer about free agency, but other team's free agents? You're changing your stance mid-argument.

You said people chase the paycheck on the 2nd contract, and now you want to ignore all the people who test FA and still stay with a good team?

Okay, Fred.

First of all the discussion was about free agents "coming here".  

(12-05-2019, 02:42 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Some Bengal fans claim free agents won't come here,

So I never changed anything.


Second, if you would look at the link I provided you would see that 20 of the top 21 switched teams.  So my position is still valid.  16 of 21 is still an overwhelming majority.

(12-04-2019, 07:06 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: All true. Mixon is the best RB out of the 3 no question and should be used in the passing game much more.

I am in the pay the man camp myself. Mixon behind a decent O-line and getting used in the passing game lots would 
be a nightmare for Defenses, once he catches the ball he is much harder to tackle then a Wideout. Makes defenders 
miss, can go over, around or through defenders etc.

agreed......he has same ability and talent level as Leveon Bell. Give this guy a decent O Line and a Decent play-caller that uses him on passing downs and he would have HUGE numbers. And you gotta love the attitude and energy he brings to each play. Im a big fan..what can I say.

(12-05-2019, 11:38 PM)kalibengal Wrote: agreed......he has same ability and talent level as Leveon Bell. Give this guy a decent O Line and a Decent play-caller that uses him on passing downs and he would have HUGE numbers. And you gotta love the attitude and energy he brings to each play. Im a big fan..what can I say.

Feel the same, Mixon hits the hole faster than Bell and likes to punish defenders more.

I would argue Mixon is better than Bell at this point and is younger. I would pay the man.

(12-10-2019, 04:37 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Feel the same, Mixon hits the hole faster than Bell and likes to punish defenders more.

I would argue Mixon is better than Bell at this point and is younger. I would pay the man.

He will get paid, as Troy says. someone has to run with the ball right??

(12-10-2019, 04:37 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Feel the same, Mixon hits the hole faster than Bell and likes to punish defenders more.

I would argue Mixon is better than Bell at this point and is younger. I would pay the man.

Out of 48 qualified RBs, Mixon is in a two way tie for 29th in time spent to get to the Line of Scrimmage.
https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#average-time-to-line-of-scrimmage

Out of 46 qualified runners, Mixon is in a 6-way tie for 38th in Yards After Contact Per Rush. (As in there's only 3 RBs worse than him.)
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/rushing_advanced.htm
Despite being in a 4 way tie for 24th in Yards BEFORE Contact Per Rush, meaning that's him, not the OL.


Meanwhile Bell is 45th out of 46 in Yards Before Contact Per Rush, meaning he's getting 0 help from his OL, despite being in a 6 way tie for 25th in Yards After Contact Per Rush (not great, but still better than Mixon). He's also 34th in time spent to get to the Line of Scrimmage, which is worse, but with the difference between him and Mixon being just 0.03 seconds... and that's the shell of his former self Bell, who would never have gotten paid if they knew this is what they were getting.

Unless you have Barry Sanders in the backfield, there's no point in paying RBs anymore, with a handful of exceptions out there. Mixon is not one of those exceptions. I didn't like the Gio deal in the offseason, either.

(12-10-2019, 05:50 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Out of 48 qualified RBs, Mixon is in a two way tie for 29th in time spent to get to the Line of Scrimmage.
https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#average-time-to-line-of-scrimmage

This does not tell you who hits the hole faster.  It tells you who runs more outside sweep plays.

(12-04-2019, 05:39 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: After Three Years In Each.....

Running Back A:
598 carries, 2437 rushing yards (4.1 AVG), 14 TD
99 catches, 773 receiving yards (7.8 AVG), 4 TD
Seasons of 3.5, 4.9, and 3.5 YPC.
0 rushing TDs of 20+ yards.

Running Back B:
667 carries, 2757 rushing yards (4.1 AVG), 29 TD
63 catches, 467 receiving yards (7.4 AVG), 1 TD
Seasons of 5.1, 3.6, and 3.8 YPC.
4 rushing TDs of 20+ yards.

Running Back C:
492 carries, 2105 rushing yards (4.3 AVG), 12 TD
148 catches, 1335 receiving yards (9.0 AVG), 5 TD
Seasons of 4.1, 4.0, and 4.7 YPC.
2 rushing TD of 20+ yards.

















- - - - - - - - - - -
A is Joe Mixon
B is Jeremy Hill
C is Giovani Bernard


Mixon has been objectively the worst of the three. You can argue that he's had the worst OL to work behind of the three, but there have often been good/great RBs behind bad OL. It's not like Saquon Barkley or Todd Gurley inherited good OLs to run behind when they joined the league.

Anyway, I just was thinking about this because I saw some Bengals fans on the internet drooling over that Mixon run that got called back on the bad penalty (where he got caught from behind despite having a lead) and wondered about the actual numbers of the last three RBs to have significant carries for the Bengals.

If you just look at the numbers, Joe's isn't the level of production you want to give an extension to. One good year and two bad years, and RB is a position where it's really common for a guy to have one great season and never recreate it his entire career.

Overall I would summarise it that we have had the RB talent but not the consistency or commitment to the Running game.  

Across Hue Jackson , Zampese, Lazor and Callahan we have had a lot of OC churn but none of them really hung their hat on the running game (apart from perhaps 2nd half of the 2014 season).

- Jeremy Hill's career still feels a massive letdown...the 2nd half of the 2014 season he was a beast with 5 100+ yd games from week 9. In 2019 he's without a team.

- As your stats show Jeremy Hill had a real nose for the end zone and could punch it in. At the time he caught a lot of flak as he 'only' scored short TD's ...bearing in mind our red zone efficiency is atrocious I would be happy to see 2015 Jeremy Hill in the backfield.

- Mixon is a quality RB and is the least of our problems on offense. We have enough holes elsewhere in the team that need filling and he's a young guy so not averse to investing in him. 

Mixon is either not as good as we think or he's being held back by our owner and coaching and we aren't likely to change that. Not a good way to spin this, really.

(12-04-2019, 08:43 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: What are the fumble numbers?

  Jeremy Hill fumbled away a playoff win--against Shittsburgh.


            That's all I need to know. Jeremy Hill is the worst running back in Bengals history... 

(12-10-2019, 05:50 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Out of 48 qualified RBs, Mixon is in a two way tie for 29th in time spent to get to the Line of Scrimmage.
https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#average-time-to-line-of-scrimmage

Out of 46 qualified runners, Mixon is in a 6-way tie for 38th in Yards After Contact Per Rush. (As in there's only 3 RBs worse than him.)
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/rushing_advanced.htm
Despite being in a 4 way tie for 24th in Yards BEFORE Contact Per Rush, meaning that's him, not the OL.


Meanwhile Bell is 45th out of 46 in Yards Before Contact Per Rush, meaning he's getting 0 help from his OL, despite being in a 6 way tie for 25th in Yards After Contact Per Rush (not great, but still better than Mixon). He's also 34th in time spent to get to the Line of Scrimmage, which is worse, but with the difference between him and Mixon being just 0.03 seconds... and that's the shell of his former self Bell, who would never have gotten paid if they knew this is what they were getting.

Unless you have Barry Sanders in the backfield, there's no point in paying RBs anymore, with a handful of exceptions out there. Mixon is not one of those exceptions. I didn't like the Gio deal in the offseason, either.

Thanks for the stats man, you put the work in and I admire that.

Still I don't think those stats tell the whole story and it is a big reason I don't put much stock in PFF and never have.

Watching Mixon he is one of the most talented RB's in the league and I want to keep him and get him a good OL.

As I said earlier if we used him better like in the passing game more and in different alignments with a better OL I 
truly believe he could be one of if not the best in the league. I believe he is one of those exceptions myself and no 
one is Barry Sanders. The Gio deal made no sense to me either and it just makes all of this harder.

Love Gio but he did not deserve that deal for how much he is injured.

(12-10-2019, 06:54 PM)fredtoast Wrote: This does not tell you who hits the hole faster.  It tells you who runs more outside sweep plays.

Definitely a lot more into it than what is said there for sure.