Estimated cap before any extensions/signings (including Trey Hopkins) = $61,068,262


Cuts/Trades


Andy Dalton - 17.7mil - Trade
Cordy Glenn - 9.25mil - Trade
Dre Kirkpatrick - 8.45mil - cut (more if you can secure any trade)


Extensions


Trey Hopkins - 3 yr/ 20.4m  - cap hit 6.8m
Joe Mixon - 3 yr/36m  - 12m yr - 8m signing - 18m guar - cap hit 3.7m 2020 ( rookie contract)  11.3m 2021
WJIII - 4 yr/46m   -  11.5m yr - 8m signing - 23m guar - cap hit 11.9m


(Joe Mixon and WJ3 will play out their rookie contracts with the extension added after next year)   


Sign


AJ Green - 2yr / 22m -  11m yr -  7m signing bonus - 14.5m guar - cap hit 11m
Darqueze Dennard - 3yr / 18.9m - 6.3m yr - 6m bonus - 9.35 guar - cap hit 6.3m
Tyler Eifert - 2 yr / 17m  -  8.5m yr  -  6m bonus -  8.5m guar -  cap hit 8.5m
Andrew Billings - 5 yr / 45m - 9m yr - 12m bonus - 22m guar - cap hit 9m



Cap Before Free Agency/Draft  -  $51,234,929


Estimated Draft Cap (based on 2019 cardinals)  -  17m


Cap After Draft = $34,234,912






..............................................




In Summary, these are the big moves internally I would make moving into the 2020 season.   I do not believe in the Rent to own philosophy of player contracts in terms of franchise tags or single-year deals.  If your going to lock a player in give yourself wiggle room to trade that player towards the end of their contract to find value. 

When it comes to rookie contract extensions my philosophy is that you lock a player in before their last contract year and ultimately save yourself money over time because of positional contract inflation from year to year.  The benefit to the player is that while they won't make top dollar they can receive a bonus in cash a year earlier and it shifts injury concerns from the player to the team.  For Example, WJ3 could possibly make more money with a better performance next year and his 5th-year option, but if his play continues to decline because of the injury or gets injured again he could make significantly less.

I am no NFL contract expert so if something is off or my math is off,  feel free to let me know.

Thanks

Sounds like a plan....

Don't forget Billings.

(01-01-2020, 09:36 PM)jj22 Wrote: Sounds like a plan....

Don't forget Billings.

Good point how could I forget billings!

(01-01-2020, 09:39 PM)Okeana Wrote: Good point how could I forget billings!

Or as Nate would say it...

BILLINGS!!!

I'd say maybe a little more for Dennard, maybe a little less for Eifert, but overall not bad estimates.

Now, if the Bengals front office is thinking along the same lines that you are? Then they should be able to upgrade the roster by 3-6 players, depending on how big of a splash they make on "name brand" type of players.

Added Billing's new totals.

(01-01-2020, 09:50 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I'd say maybe a little more for Dennard, maybe a little less for Eifert, but overall not bad estimates.

Now, if the Bengals front office is thinking along the same lines that you are?  Then they should be able to upgrade the roster by 3-6 players, depending on how big of a splash they make on "name brand" type of players.

forgot to take into account Billings so that's another 9m.  yeah each team also sets money aside for midseason pickups when players go on IR it doesn't drop their cap, so probably another 10m to over the season which leaves you with about 24 million.  This a big year for us to catch up on signing talent so I wouldn't expect a huge free agency.  Corners and Linebackers should be the biggest free agent moves.  Offensive lineman in the draft will help add depth to the line and hopefully a starter.  

We have some bright spots on the offensive line with Hopkins becoming a pretty damn good center and Fred Johnson looking really promising with 2 years left on his cheap contract.  We get Jonah Williams back next year and even if he doesn't pan out at tackle he graded high as a guard as well so fingers crossed we get some value out of him unlike price.   

I think we should sign Vigil to a 1 year deal as well. Once Brown was gone, he did improve. Makes me wonder if maybe Brown was causing issues with Vigil's play during his career.

(01-01-2020, 10:14 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I think we should sign Vigil to a 1 year deal as well. Once Brown was gone, he did improve. Makes me wonder if maybe Brown was causing issues with Vigil's play during his career.

he still graded terribly this year all things considered.  if he does get resigned it won't be for much.

My #1 Free agent target is Corey Littleton, but you're looking at around 15m+ but we need a stud MLB who can set the standard for the team.    

(01-01-2020, 10:26 PM)Okeana Wrote: he still graded terribly this year all things considered.  if he does get resigned it won't be for much.

My #1 Free agent target is Corey Littleton, but you're looking at around 15m+ but we need a stud MLB who can set the standard for the team.    

Oh, we definitely need to sign a free agent LB.

The question is: ....Will we?


We definitely don't have a history of signing free agents that are actually any good (and have a competitive market around them).

Which is why I want to re-sign Vigil haha. I don't want to leave his roster spot to a rookie after we let him go and then not sign a significant free agent LB XD.

I would walk away from WJ3 before Dre Kirkpatrick. WJ3 has not been good since his rookie year and that year it was more great recovery than great play. Dre is the best corner on the team with Dennard a FA.

(01-01-2020, 10:38 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Oh, we definitely need to sign a free agent LB.

The question is: ....Will we?


We definitely don't have a history of signing free agents that are actually any good (and have a competitive market around them).

Which is why I want to re-sign Vigil haha. I don't want to leave his roster spot to a rookie after we let him go and then not sign a significant free agent LB XD.

lol for sure I'm just not writing him up because his contract will be either to small to worry about for now on these sheets or too large.  for example Over the cap for some reason has his value coming out of this year at 9 million a year.  Which is way to much to pay IMO so I just ignored it for another until the market develops and they make decisions?  

(01-01-2020, 10:39 PM)Synric Wrote: I would walk away from WJ3 before Dre Kirkpatrick. WJ3 has not been good since his rookie year and that year it was more great recovery than great play. Dre is the best corner on the team with Dennard a FA.

is that right?  WJ3 was injured his rookie year so that's pretty impressive.  

on a serious note, I'm sorry, but you don't know what you're talking about.  he had a slump this year playing with an injury and an overall terrible DC who didn't use him correctly.  but let's just take the pff grades over the 2 years before.  

wj3 grades
2019 - 53.7
2018 - 73.4 which is considered above average
2017 -  90.2 pro bowl top tier


kirk grades 
2019 - 61.7
2018 - 60
2017 - 63.5 
2016 - 68.9
2015  - 46.2
2014 - 68
2013 - 55.1

WJ3 has had one single bad season and it was reported he was playing with a shoulder injury in early October.  He is just now having surgery on it.  So I cannot see under any circumstance how you could consider Kirkpatrick a better player than WJ3 expect when he's injured.  Under this extension, he would effectively be making slightly above Dre with a ton more upside and youth.

Also, Dennard has scored higher than Kirkpatrick each of the last 3 years, but somehow Dre is still considered to be good when he's average at best.

(01-01-2020, 10:11 PM)Okeana Wrote: forgot to take into account Billings so that's another 9m.  yeah each team also sets money aside for midseason pickups when players go on IR it doesn't drop their cap, so probably another 10m to over the season which leaves you with about 24 million.  This a big year for us to catch up on signing talent so I wouldn't expect a huge free agency.  Corners and Linebackers should be the biggest free agent moves.  Offensive lineman in the draft will help add depth to the line and hopefully a starter.  

We have some bright spots on the offensive line with Hopkins becoming a pretty damn good center and Fred Johnson looking really promising with 2 years left on his cheap contract.  We get Jonah Williams back next year and even if he doesn't pan out at tackle he graded high as a guard as well so fingers crossed we get some value out of him unlike price.   

Ok, $24M isn't going to do "earth shattering" additions like the Browns did last year, but that is certainly enough to get what the Bengals need, if spent correctly.  They could get two really good FAs with that money.  If they spent at you are estimating, $15M on a LB such as Corey Littleton, they could get a solid mid-tier OG for 5-7M, and still have a little change to pick up a low cost addition at another position.

(01-01-2020, 11:13 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Ok, $24M isn't going to do "earth shattering" additions like the Browns did last year, but that is certainly enough to get what the Bengals need, if spent correctly.  They could get two really good FAs with that money.  If they spent at you are estimating, $15M on a LB such as Corey Littleton, they could get a solid mid-tier OG for 5-7M, and still have a little change to pick up a low cost addition at another position.

yeah its still 34m ultimately im just letting 10 float.  cory littleton would cost about 14.8 against the cap next year depending on how they sign him.  putting him on a 5 year with a large signing bonus can help spread out that cap over 5 so the first 2 years of course will be cash heavy but lighter on cap.

(01-01-2020, 11:12 PM)Synric Wrote: Dre is a strong side corner he will see more targets and receptions than a weak side corner which effects his PFF grades.

WJ3 is up and down as a corner he gives up huge plays.  His first year play (my bad) he was better in recovery than actual technique (Matt Minch or John Sherran gives a great breakdown on CincyJungle if you can find it after 2017).

Dre troubles are more shedding blocks and making tackles than coverage. Which is proven by PFF saying he gave up 45% balls in his direction in 2018.

All in all the difference between the two is nil with Dre coming out on top. You are locking WJ3 up for multiple seasons for more money when you could walk away from him keep Dre sign Dennard and run Dre Phillips Dennard and you can walk away from Dre quicker and for less cap hit.

Dre Kirkpatrick allowed just 44.4% of the targets thrown his way to be caught - the 2nd-best rate in the league pic.twitter.com/2B5eDZoelg

— PFF (@PFF) May 31, 2019

Edit: Less dead cap hit.

there are some truths to this, but ultimately wj3 has youth and a higher skill potential.  He just needs the right defensive schemes.  Btw he was targeted more than Dre in the last 2 years.

(01-01-2020, 11:48 PM)Okeana Wrote: there are some truths to this, but ultimately wj3 has youth and a higher skill potential.  He just needs the right defensive schemes.  Btw he was targeted more than Dre in the last 2 years.

Either way honestly I wouldnt walk away from either...I would bring in a guy like Karl Joseph and cut Shawn Williams.

Nice job with the breakdowns. Outside of Hopkins who was already signed I don't feel like we have any must sign internal free agents. If the price is right i'm fine with it. I'm personally not solid on resigning Eifert he's 30 years old, this is the first season he's played 16 games and he didn't put up crazy numbers 436 yards rec and 3 TD's. Plus we drafted Sample in the 2nd round if you draft a player in round 2 he should be a starter or else it was a bad pick. Hopefully we use some money to upgrade the O-line or linebacker.

(01-02-2020, 12:20 AM)lone bengal Wrote: Nice job with the breakdowns. Outside of Hopkins who was already signed I don't feel like we have any must sign internal free agents.  If the price is right i'm fine with it. I'm personally not solid on resigning Eifert he's 30 years old, this is the first season he's played 16 games and he didn't put up crazy numbers 436 yards rec and 3 TD's. Plus we drafted Sample in the 2nd round if you draft a player in round 2 he should be a starter or else it was a bad pick. Hopefully we use some money to upgrade the O-line or linebacker.

Eifert was underused the 1st half of 2019.he wants to remain 
A Bengal. Retaining players that want to stay really helps 
In building a foundation 
I saw nothing from Sample that defined future threat
At TE.

(01-02-2020, 12:20 AM)lone bengal Wrote: Nice job with the breakdowns. Outside of Hopkins who was already signed I don't feel like we have any must sign internal free agents.  If the price is right i'm fine with it. I'm personally not solid on resigning Eifert he's 30 years old, this is the first season he's played 16 games and he didn't put up crazy numbers 436 yards rec and 3 TD's. Plus we drafted Sample in the 2nd round if you draft a player in round 2 he should be a starter or else it was a bad pick. Hopefully we use some money to upgrade the O-line or linebacker.

They could move on for sure, but i wouldn't mind either way i just don't think we have a better option.