(03-02-2020, 10:57 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Don't forget the Bears have draft picks and injuries settlements too.  So you can immediately slash 18 million off their cap space for the rookie pool and injuries.

There's no way they can afford him.

The bears don’t have a 1st, 3rd or 4th round pick. They do have several in the 5-7th rounds. If they end up trading a 2 for dalton they won’t have a ton they have to spend on their rookie class


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(02-29-2020, 12:20 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: If the Bears were to part with a 2nd in a deal for Dalton then I think we'd have to be including a pick as well. Something like Dalton + a 4th for their 2nd.

They'd be bringing him to compete with Trubinsky, not just handing him the job. And he wouldn't be considered a long term answer from day 1 either. So a 2nd straight up seems insanely high to me.

That's my thought too.  We can say he's worth a low 2nd/high 3rd but it's up to the buyer.  Their picks and the value chart are in the link below.  I'm thinking the Bears willl actually offer Cincy jump from pick 65 to pick 50, which on the chart is 135 points...an equivalent of trading them pick 91 outright if they had it.  

If a high 2nd/low 3rd is his value, Cincy is working with him to get to a reasonable spot but will want it taken care of early in FA (hopefully to spend the money in a perfect world).  Chicago has the Bill Lazor angle and may want to get ahead of NE, yet not let the market dictate a contract or fit they don't want.  I'm going to guess it ends up being:

Dalton and Pick 65(3rd)
for
Pick 50(2nd), Pick 169 (6th) and a conditional 4th or 5th in 2020. 
Conditions would be something like the Bears resigning (or tagging) him and playing time or win total

It may not be the best deal, but it enables Cincy to land a heck of a player at 50 or deal back down from either of their 2nds for more picks.  Depending on you rank them, you could end up with LB Patrick Queen or LB Kenneth Murray with the high 2nd and take BPA at 50.    

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=CHI

The Bears have two fifth round picks. When they said they would give up a "second" for Dalton they meant their second pick in the fifth round.

(03-02-2020, 10:33 AM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: That's a terrible take. If you can pay someone a few extra million to give you a second round pick instead of a 4th round pick for Dalton then the Bengals should jump at it.

Let's say the Bengals use that second round pick on a guard. With a second round guard you'd expect them to be a year one starter and to develop into an above average player. Under the NFL rookie wage scale you'd pay around $1.5m-$2m a year for four years with around $3.5m guaranteed.

To sign an equivalent player in free agency would cost, what, $7m-$8m a year with around $13.5m guaranteed?

That's conservatively a $5m a year saving over 4 years.

How much is $5m a year worth for 4 years?

With the slim chance that a pick works out, I too think that there' no value in paying to move up the pick.  Sweeten the deal with returning picks or forget it.  No need to spend- if they want him, ante up.

(03-02-2020, 05:48 PM)Shouldamapads Wrote: With the slim chance that a pick works out, I too think that there' no value in paying to move up the pick.  Sweeten the deal with returning picks or forget it.  No need to spend- if they want him, ante up.

Whilst there's a chance the pick is a bust, it's hardly as if free agent signings are sure things either.

Before last year, our last three second round picks were Jessie Bates, Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd. Whereas the proven NFL talent they've signed in that time frame has been Preston Brown, Cordy Glenn, Chris Baker and Kevin Minter. Brown, Baker and Minter may have been at the cheaper end (although still more expensive than a second rounder on the pay scale) but Glenn certainly wasn't and how has that worked out?

Tannihill's success really helped Dalton. If Bears are thinking he can do what Tanny did for the Titans it will raise the price.