(05-22-2020, 02:01 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: I think you're right in principle, but this will not be as hard to do as you make it out to be. The franchise tag 18.5 is guaranteed for one year. It's basically a guaranteed base salary with no signing bonus. You might as well guaranteed his base salary in 2020 because it's not like we're cutting him no matter what he does this year. 

Figure it like this: 

3 year deal, $12 million signing bonus, 10 million base salary per year (forget workout bonuses and such for the sake of simplicity). 

If you then guarantee his base salary in year 1 (but not thereafter), he's getting 22 million his first year, way above what he's getting now. 

In years 2-3 he'd get a non-guaranteed 10 million base, but you can add to that those incentives other folks are talking about to kick it up to the mid teens. Or he might be interested in roster bonuses to disincentivize the team from releasing him a week after the draft like they did Andy (cut him early or not at all). The question is what's he willing to do in years 2-3 in exchange for giving him more guaranteed money now, fully knowing he's had trouble staying healthy as of late. 

Those are just rough numbers, not meant to be predictions, but note that in that scenario his 2020 cap hit would drop to 14 million, and I bet we could even get it lower. 

I would not do a deal like that.  If he can't play he will get $22 million cash this year and eat up $8 million in dead cap space next year.

(05-22-2020, 02:27 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I would not do a deal like that.  If he can't play he will get $22 million cash this year and eat up $8 million in dead cap space next year.

I was just using round numbers to make a point. Maybe the signing bonus is less. But regardless, we have to accept some level of risk if we want to re-sign him. That's not just for the sake of having AJ, but for the sake of lowering his cap number this year and getting a Mixon extension or Warford or whatever it is you might want. I'd rather do that and cross my fingers that he stays healthy than risk paying him 18.5 for what would be, in your scenario, an injury riddled year. (Let's face it, as fans we don't care about the cash, only the cap implications).

What type of dead cap would you be willing to risk for him in years 2 or 3 of the deal, if it meant lowering his 2020 cap #? Remember, if he balls out this year he'll hold all the cards next year, because it's unlikely we'd franchise him again. The Bengals historically have been risk averse, but that cuts both ways - we also risk losing one of the best players in franchise history. 

We should "call our shot" with Mixon's contract. I won't mess with guaranteed money, as I have no idea what formula is the latest average for determining that figure, but the overall contract I see Mixon signing will be:

4 years, $35 million.

Works out to $8.75 million per year.

I think it is fair for Mixon, and wise for the Bengals. If Mixon has the year I think he can have with Burrow and better utilization of him in the passing game, he could increase his value substantially with a big season. $8.75 per year might sound like a lot now, but in a couple years, it might feel like a bargain.

(05-22-2020, 02:01 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: I think you're right in principle, but this will not be as hard to do as you make it out to be. The franchise tag 18.5 is guaranteed for one year. It's basically a guaranteed base salary with no signing bonus. You might as well guaranteed his base salary in 2020 because it's not like we're cutting him no matter what he does this year. 

Figure it like this: 

3 year deal, $12 million signing bonus, 10 million base salary per year (forget workout bonuses and such for the sake of simplicity). 

If you then guarantee his base salary in year 1 (but not thereafter), he's getting 22 million his first year, way above what he's getting now. 

In years 2-3 he'd get a non-guaranteed 10 million base, but you can add to that those incentives other folks are talking about to kick it up to the mid teens. Or he might be interested in roster bonuses to disincentivize the team from releasing him a week after the draft like they did Andy (cut him early or not at all). The question is what's he willing to do in years 2-3 in exchange for giving him more guaranteed money now, fully knowing he's had trouble staying healthy as of late. 

Those are just rough numbers, not meant to be predictions, but note that in that scenario his 2020 cap hit would drop to 14 million, and I bet we could even get it lower. 

I mean, there's a lot of ways to outline a potential contract, but the fact remains that a multi-year deal will require more guarantees than the franchise tag.

But tet's just reveiw your ballpark numbers real quick. This, as I understand, is ultimately what it looks like:

3 years 42 mil TOTAL, with 22 mil guaranteed.  PLUS INCENTIVES.

Annually..

Year 1 - 14 mil (Fully guaranteed) + Incentives
Year 2 - 14 mil (4 mil guaranteed) + Incentives
Year 3 - 14 mil (4 mil guaranteed) + Incentives

In this scenario he's picking up an additional 3.5 mil in guarantees vs. the current fully guaranteed 18.5 mil on the tag.  Let's be honest, that's not really all that much to attatch yourself to another 2 years.

So we have to assume that a number of the incentives are well within reach. Otherwise, I can't see him commited himself for another 2 seasons, with only 3.5 mil in guarantees and a 10 mil per base salary. So you'd probably see a roster bonus, a workout bonus, and then tiers of achievements. (X amount for starts, x amount for yards, x amount for Pro Bowls, etc.)

He's going to have to hit some of those if he plays this season. Again, a number of them will almost be built in if he actually plays. He's not going to commit to a 10 mil base salary to only net an additional 3.5 mil in guarantees if there's not a number of incentives within reach.

So let's assume he goes out and has an ok season, which results in 70 balls, 1,000 yards and sees him start at least 12 games.  That's probably going to mean a good chuck of change in your scenario.  Let's just say it nets him 5 mil in incentives.

You've now commited to a TOTAL amount of 27 mil dollars after one season.

And let's say he's healthy to start year 2, and you see more incentives hit (roster bonus, workout bonus, etc.)  Let's say he flat out stinks or gets hurt, and only makes a couple mil in incentives.  Adding only a couple million to his base salary.

You've not commited to a TOTAL of 39 mil through two seasons.

What happens if you want to cut him after year 1?  What happens if you cut him during or after year two?  What does it look like if he plays all 3 years?

Again, while 10 mil + incentives sounds great. If you start accounting for guaranteed money and the fact they have to be somehwat reasonable incentives then this contract starts to become a HUGE risk.

You can't just say, "Hey, here's an extra 3.5 mil so we can control rights for another 2 years. And we'll only pay you more if you get 1,200 yards or more.

Any way you slice it you're commiting way more money.  In the above scenarios you'd be on the hook for 27 mil for one 1,000 year season if you wanted to cut bait.  You'd be on the hook for 39 mil for a 1,000 yard season and a terrible season if you wanted to cut bait.  You're paying out the nose for even average production.

I really don't see how this makes sense from our prespective at all.  Where's the benefit?

(05-22-2020, 02:27 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I would not do a deal like that.  If he can't play he will get $22 million cash this year and eat up $8 million in dead cap space next year.

There's no benefit for the Bengals in that scenario unless the incentives are completely astronomical.  Even then it's risky.  And there's no benefit to AJ Green unless the incentives are reasonablly tiered and a number of them are built-in and/or reachable.

Any way you slice it it's going to take a BIG commitment to work out a new deal.  If people want a AJ Green deal done prior to the season then it's going to take quite a bit to get it done.  Green has a tremendous amount of leverage right now with the tag being fully guaranteed.

I just don't see how it makes any sense at all for the Bengals to jump the gun here.  Work out a new deal during the season, or after. Offer him a more than competitive deal, compared to his market value.  If he chooses to leave, he leaves. 

He'll be 33 at the start of next year, and he hasn't produced a top 10 season since 2015.  Why would they rush to pay him long term like one now? It would be one thing if it could result in substantial savings, but that's really not the case. Even if he blows up this years and has a great year, I can't see his market growing that much higher than what it would take to lock him up now. There's tons and tons and tons of risk, with little to no reward.

(05-27-2020, 08:54 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: We should "call our shot" with Mixon's contract.  I won't mess with guaranteed money, as I have no idea what formula is the latest average for determining that figure, but the overall contract I see Mixon signing will be:

4 years, $35 million.  

Works out to $8.75 million per year.

I think it is fair for Mixon, and wise for the Bengals.  If Mixon has the year I think he can have with Burrow and better utilization of him in the passing game, he could increase his value substantially with a big season.  $8.75 per year might sound like a lot now, but in a couple years, it might feel like a bargain.

I think that's reasonable. I believe we've just scratched the surface of what Mixon can do in the passing game. Dalton was just not good in the short passing game. And add in the bad oline and the opportunity was just not there much.

I'm anxious to see Burrow working with Mixon and all the receivers for that matter.

(05-27-2020, 11:52 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I mean, there's a lot of ways to outline a potential contract, but the fact remains that a multi-year deal will require more guarantees than the franchise tag.

But tet's just reveiw your ballpark numbers real quick. This, as I understand, is ultimately what it looks like:

3 years 42 mil TOTAL, with 22 mil guaranteed.  PLUS INCENTIVES.

Annually..

Year 1 - 14 mil (Fully guaranteed) + Incentives
Year 2 - 14 mil (4 mil guaranteed) + Incentives
Year 3 - 14 mil (4 mil guaranteed) + Incentives

In this scenario he's picking up an additional 3.5 mil in guarantees vs. the current fully guaranteed 18.5 mil on the tag.  Let's be honest, that's not really all that much to attatch yourself to another 2 years.

So we have to assume that a number of the incentives are well within reach. Otherwise, I can't see him commited himself for another 2 seasons, with only 3.5 mil in guarantees and a 10 mil per base salary. So you'd probably see a roster bonus, a workout bonus, and then tiers of achievements. (X amount for starts, x amount for yards, x amount for Pro Bowls, etc.)

He's going to have to hit some of those if he plays this season. Again, a number of them will almost be built in if he actually plays. He's not going to commit to a 10 mil base salary to only net an additional 3.5 mil in guarantees if there's not a number of incentives within reach.

So let's assume he goes out and has an ok season, which results in 70 balls, 1,000 yards and sees him start at least 12 games.  That's probably going to mean a good chuck of change in your scenario.  Let's just say it nets him 5 mil in incentives.

You've now commited to a TOTAL amount of 27 mil dollars after one season.

And let's say he's healthy to start year 2, and you see more incentives hit (roster bonus, workout bonus, etc.)  Let's say he flat out stinks or gets hurt, and only makes a couple mil in incentives.  Adding only a couple million to his base salary.

You've not commited to a TOTAL of 39 mil through two seasons.

What happens if you want to cut him after year 1?  What happens if you cut him during or after year two?  What does it look like if he plays all 3 years?

Again, while 10 mil + incentives sounds great. If you start accounting for guaranteed money and the fact they have to be somehwat reasonable incentives then this contract starts to become a HUGE risk.

You can't just say, "Hey, here's an extra 3.5 mil so we can control rights for another 2 years. And we'll only pay you more if you get 1,200 yards or more.

Any way you slice it you're commiting way more money.  In the above scenarios you'd be on the hook for 27 mil for one 1,000 year season if you wanted to cut bait.  You'd be on the hook for 39 mil for a 1,000 yard season and a terrible season if you wanted to cut bait.  You're paying out the nose for even average production.

I really don't see how this makes sense from our prespective at all.  Where's the benefit?

As I said previously, I was responding to the notion, at least as I interpreted it, that an extension was just impossible because his signing bonus itself would have to be more than 18.5 million. So I was throwing out some round numbers just to say no, it's not like we'd have to take on unacceptable risk in future years. 

And with all due respect, it appears your counter was to pose a scenario where he earns 5 million extra in incentives and in the process of doing so we can't cut him. Why would you want to cut a guy that made the incentives structured into his contract? I'm sure our front office is savvy enough to not put incentives in a contract that if met, the player still wasn't worth keeping around. That's the whole point of incentives. Incentives are the opposite of guarantees, and unless I misunderstand you here, you seem to be treating them the same. 

If we did something like the deal I outlined, and he's either hurt all year or obviously in decline, we've spent 14m of cap space on him (less than we're schedule for right now) in 2020, and yes we'd be scheduled for another 8m in 2021. Cutting him before the season means we save around 10m but eat 8m. Your point is either that a) that's an unacceptable level of risk - in which case we just fundamentally disagree. I think that's okay for arguably the second best player in the history of our franchise. Or b) you're imagining that we'd keep him and he'd be mediocre and earn another 5m and then we'd cut him, in which case I just don't understand your rationale at all. 

I'm not going to try to get into AJ's head and figure out what he'd accept. It depends on how serious he is about playing with one franchise (ala Fitzgerald), what he thinks his chances of staying healthy are, lots of things. But negotiations are all about finding a structure that works for both sides. Here's a structure that I think might be reasonable (if you don't agree with the numbers fiddle with them all you want):

3 years, 10.5m signing bonus. 

2020: 10 million base salary fully guaranteed. AJ takes home 20.5m, more than he's schedule to make under his current tag.

2021: 1 million roster bonus due the third day of the new league year (or make it more if you want). 10 million base, not guaranteed. This basically guarantees that we don't do him like we did Andy and hold onto him deep into the summer. We either cut him in the first wave of free agency or not at all. Plus 2-3 million in incentives. 

2022: Same as 2021. 

From our perspective: It's a risk/reward trade off. The reward is that we hold his rights for 3 years if he plays well and we want to keep him. The incentives would be structured so that we'd basically have him at market value. And his 2020 cap number is lower. The risk is that we'd be on the hook for 7 million in 2021 and we'd have to cut him prior to the third day of the 2021 league year, but honestly I think we'd be ready to make that decision by then anyway. (or cut him after that and eat 8m, but that would be dumb). 

From AJ's perspective: Worst case scenario is that the team decides to cut him after 2020, in which case he still made more money than he would under the tag. He goes to free agency in a timely fashion, just as he would if he plays this year out on the tag. Or the team pays the roster bonus more or less locking him in, in which case he has the market deal with the Bengals that he wants anyway. To some degree based on those incentives, sure, but that's part of the same negotiation process true of any player. My point is it's not somehow harder in AJ's case. 

Bengals have the same decision to make in 2022, except that we'd only eat 3.5m.  

(05-27-2020, 01:01 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: As I said previously, I was responding to the notion, at least as I interpreted it, that an extension was just impossible because his signing bonus itself would have to be more than 18.5 million. So I was throwing out some round numbers just to say no, it's not like we'd have to take on unacceptable risk in future years. 

And with all due respect, it appears your counter was to pose a scenario where he earns 5 million extra in incentives and in the process of doing so we can't cut him. Why would you want to cut a guy that made the incentives structured into his contract? I'm sure our front office is savvy enough to not put incentives in a contract that if met, the player still wasn't worth keeping around. That's the whole point of incentives. Incentives are the opposite of guarantees, and unless I misunderstand you here, you seem to be treating them the same. 

If we did something like the deal I outlined, and he's either hurt all year or obviously in decline, we've spent 14m of cap space on him (less than we're schedule for right now) in 2020, and yes we'd be scheduled for another 8m in 2021. Cutting him before the season means we save around 10m but eat 8m. Your point is either that a) that's an unacceptable level of risk - in which case we just fundamentally disagree. I think that's okay for arguably the second best player in the history of our franchise. Or b) you're imagining that we'd keep him and he'd be mediocre and earn another 5m and then we'd cut him, in which case I just don't understand your rationale at all. 

I'm not going to try to get into AJ's head and figure out what he'd accept. It depends on how serious he is about playing with one franchise (ala Fitzgerald), what he thinks his chances of staying healthy are, lots of things. But negotiations are all about finding a structure that works for both sides. Here's a structure that I think might be reasonable (if you don't agree with the numbers fiddle with them all you want):

3 years, 10.5m signing bonus. 

2020: 10 million base salary fully guaranteed. AJ takes home 20.5m, more than he's schedule to make under his current tag.

2021: 1 million roster bonus due the third day of the new league year (or make it more if you want). 10 million base, not guaranteed. This basically guarantees that we don't do him like we did Andy and hold onto him deep into the summer. We either cut him in the first wave of free agency or not at all. Plus 2-3 million in incentives. 

2022: Same as 2021. 

From our perspective: It's a risk/reward trade off. The reward is that we hold his rights for 3 years if he plays well and we want to keep him. The incentives would be structured so that we'd basically have him at market value. And his 2020 cap number is lower. The risk is that we'd be on the hook for 7 million in 2021 and we'd have to cut him prior to the third day of the 2021 league year, but honestly I think we'd be ready to make that decision by then anyway. (or cut him after that and eat 8m, but that would be dumb). 

From AJ's perspective: Worst case scenario is that the team decides to cut him after 2020, in which case he still made more money than he would under the tag. He goes to free agency in a timely fashion, just as he would if he plays this year out on the tag. Or the team pays the roster bonus more or less locking him in, in which case he has the market deal with the Bengals that he wants anyway. To some degree based on those incentives, sure, but that's part of the same negotiation process true of any player. My point is it's not somehow harder in AJ's case. 

Bengals have the same decision to make in 2022, except that we'd only eat 3.5m.  

I tried to read through this, and while I can appreciate the effort, all these numbers are starting to make my head hurt.

I'm just going to try to boil down my stance as simply as possible...

I don't think an extra 3.5 mil in guaranteed money is enough to make AJ Green want to give up his rights for another 2 seasons.  Not unless the  a number of the incentives you mentioned are essentially built in guarantees.  Not all of them, but some.  He's not going to give up controlling rights for 2 additional seasons at 10 mil base without some easy to reach incentives.  It makes no sense.

We can go around and around on the numbers forever.  To be honest, I'm not really sure it matters all that much.  AJ Green is going to want serious concessions and guarantees to extend beyond a year.  If you're for commiting to that now then more power to you.  I just don't see where the savings and benefit are coming from in doing so.

(05-27-2020, 01:25 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I tried to read through this, and while I can appreciate the effort, all these numbers are starting to make my head hurt.

I'm just going to try to boil down my stance as simply as possible...

I don't think an extra 3.5 mil in guaranteed money is enough to make AJ Green want to give up his rights for another 2 seasons.  Not unless the  a number of the incentives you mentioned are essentially built in guarantees.  Not all of them, but some.  He's not going to give up controlling rights for 2 additional seasons at 10 mil base without some easy to reach incentives.  It makes no sense.

We can go around and around on the numbers forever.  To be honest, I'm not really sure it matters all that much.  AJ Green is going to want serious concessions and guarantees to extend beyond a year.  If you're for commiting to that now then more power to you.  I just don't see where the savings and benefit are coming from in doing so.

Ok, I understand. Let me try to boil what I meant to say down to this, a phrasing that only later occurred to me: The Bengals want low risk (ie, low signing bonus), AJ wants a fair market contract. So how do we resolve that impasse? Is it just a matter of settling on the right number of guaranteed dollars? My suggestion was that guaranteed money shifts from signing bonus to roster bonuses. As I understand things, roster bonuses are like smaller, year by year signing bonuses that don't prorate. It's like if you took that big signing bonus that every player wants, and chopped it up into a smaller bonuses that trigger at the beginning of every league year, if the player is on the roster. Reduces our risk if we want out of the deal, and gets the player guaranteed money on a yearly basis - meaning he still has a chunk of his salary even if he gets cut in training camp (so my estimate of $1m was probably too low). 

I do agree it makes no sense to quibble over numbers, because that's for the two sides to haggle over. We probably also see the level of acceptable risk differently. I just think "risk" has to include not just what happens if he's terrible, but what happens if he lights it up the year he's on the franchise tag. Then I really think it'll be nearly impossible to re-sign him. Can you imagine the consternation on this board if one of the best players in the history of the Bengals walks next year after making the pro bowl again? Everybody will scream that we should've locked him up when we had the chance! 

(05-27-2020, 05:57 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: 1.) but what happens if he lights it up the year he's on the franchise tag. Then I really think it'll be nearly impossible to re-sign him.

2.) Can you imagine the consternation on this board if one of the best players in the history of the Bengals walks next year after making the pro bowl again? Everybody will scream that we should've locked him up when we had the chance! 

1.) I really think that even if he lights it up next year that his contract won't go up much from what I figure him wanting now (3 or 4 years, around 15-16 mil per, with 25-30 mil guaranteed).  Now obviously we're back to numbers predictions, and I could be off but I think I'm close.

I just don't see his value increasing much, unless he posts a HUGE season (like 100 balls, 1500 yards).  He'll be 33 next year, and he'll still have some recent injury history.  If you look at a guy like Emmanual Sanders, who is the same exact age, you'll see he just inked a 2 year 16 mil dollar deal.  And he's been healthier as of late.  I just can't see AJ getting 17+ mil plus multi-year offers on the open market. I don't think we'll be saving money by getting it done early.

2.) I guess it would depend on why exactly that were to occur.  If we made a great offer and he chose to leave for less money then what can really you do?  I don't think anyone could blame the team for not getting it done earlier given his recent history either.  It was also depend on how Tee Higgins looks.  If Higgins has a really nice rookie season, and Boyd stays on course, then I'm not sure I'd want him back anyways.  Use that money elsewhere.

----------------------------------

To each their own, but I'd put the odds on AJ having a lights out top 10 WR type of season (1300+ yards) season as slim to none.  I think at best I'd give a 50% chance to even stay healthy all year, and that's probably being generous.  I think best case scenario he's able to stay on the field, and is still productive.  But more similar to his 2017's numbers (1080 yards).  And fwiw, that yardage total would fall outside the top 20 for 2019.  I still think he can be a good player if he can stay healthy, but at his age and rust I really doubt he can still be elite.

(05-19-2020, 12:25 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I wish these "sports writers" would keep up. There is no more holdout. Mixon has no leverage at this point thanks to the new CBA. He can't afford to hold out.

No running back has leverage in today’s NFL if they ain’t one of the top 5 like Zeke, CMC, and Healthy Gurley


If i were Mixon I’d sign any deal they offered that had 4 plus years

I really hope they’re close. Apparently Dalvin Cook is going to holdout if he doesn’t receive a “reasonable extension”

(05-27-2020, 08:54 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: We should "call our shot" with Mixon's contract.  I won't mess with guaranteed money, as I have no idea what formula is the latest average for determining that figure, but the overall contract I see Mixon signing will be:

4 years, $35 million.  

Works out to $8.75 million per year.

I think it is fair for Mixon, and wise for the Bengals.  If Mixon has the year I think he can have with Burrow and better utilization of him in the passing game, he could increase his value substantially with a big season.  $8.75 per year might sound like a lot now, but in a couple years, it might feel like a bargain.

I like your thinking. This sounds about right to me as I think Mixon is about to blow up the league with Burrow.

Give him 10-10.5 mil a year and call it a day.

Cook is apparently looking for 15 and he's a moron.

(06-09-2020, 10:43 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Give him 10-10.5 mil a year and call it a day.

Cook is apparently looking for 15 and he's a moron.

Cook is out of his mind if he thinks he’s worth that. Guy has missed a lot of games, and even if he hadn’t, he’s not McCaffrey.

I’d be good with giving Mixon 10x3-4. His entire deal will be on Burrow’s rookie contract. Then once it’s time to pay Joe superstar QB money (hopefully), we can just draft a cheaper RB in the 2nd round.

(06-09-2020, 10:43 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Give him 10-10.5 mil a year and call it a day.

Cook is apparently looking for 15 and he's a moron.

I could live with that but I think Mixon would take anywhere from 8.75 to 10 mil no problem.

Agree that Dalvin is a moron for looking for 15 with his injury history and off field issues which are much more extensive   
as it is multiple incidents. Plus RB's aren't worth what they once were if they cannot be dynamic in the passing game.

I think Mixon could be dynamic in the passing game if he is used there more BTW.

(06-09-2020, 10:54 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Cook is out of his mind if he thinks he’s worth that. Guy has missed a lot of games, and even if he hadn’t, he’s not McCaffrey.

I’d be good with giving Mixon 10x3-4. His entire deal will be on Burrow’s rookie contract. Then once it’s time to pay Joe superstar QB money (hopefully), we can just draft a cheaper RB in the 2nd round.

I like.   Completely agree as usual Nicomo.

(06-08-2020, 09:25 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I really hope they’re close. Apparently Dalvin Cook is going to holdout if he doesn’t receive a “reasonable extension”

I heard this, too.  I don't understand it, though.  If he holds out past a fairly early date, he doesn't even earn a year towards his FA?  Same as Mixon.  This posturing would seem very pointless if that is the case.  He, like Mixon, has no leverage at all in this situation.  

Get him signed.