Lawson has had a really good stretch.  You have to offer WJIII something reasonable but not ludicrous.

(12-31-2020, 01:09 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Depends on if he wants to be here. Rumors are he doesn't. We need to dump all the players, like Dunlap, who don't want to be here and replace them with players who do. Jackson, who I like, is not irreplaceable.

While any player is replaceable...he likely is the best free agent CB out there. Really the knocks on him are injuries and he doesn't intercept a lot of passes. We could certainly do worse.

Man...if they let him walk and draft Surtain to replace him, I won't be happy. IF he leaves, they need a Ronald Darby or someone like that in free agency. With the contract they gave Waynes, I don't know that they pay a free agent CB.

Is it really going to be a cap savings? Wouldn't it come out of the remaining cap this year, which means less can be rolled over to next year?

Unless WJ3 is willing to take #2 CB money ($6-8m/yr), or Lawson is willing to take sub-starter money ($6-8m/yr), I wouldn't extend either. Unless the FA market this offseason REALLY tanks, I think some desperate team will overpay them. Other than them, I don't know who they would want to extend.

Maybe Bates? Though that would actually likely make him use up MORE cap space in 2021 than he's currently slated for ($1.57m), though. Same problem with Hubbard.

There's Kevin Huber, but his last contract he got like $1m signing bonus. That's hardly enough to bother worrying about when you can prorate stuff to.

(12-31-2020, 01:16 PM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: Lawson has had a really good stretch.  You have to offer WJIII something reasonable but not ludicrous.

1 sack over the last 5 games.
2 sacks over the last 11 games.
9 solo tackles over the last 12 games.

More games missed (13) than sacks (11.5) over the last 3 years combined.

Just don't see how you can offer him starter money. Really seems like a contract where you'd have to just ignore all the red flags and would regret it pretty quickly.

Alexander is a free agent, but since he only signed a one-year deal to begin with I don't see him signing an extension.

(12-31-2020, 01:32 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: 1 sack over the last 5 games.
2 sacks over the last 11 games.
9 solo tackles over the last 12 games.

More games missed (13) than sacks (11.5) over the last 3 years combined.

Just don't see how you can offer him starter money. Really seems like a contract where you'd have to just ignore all the red flags and would regret it pretty quickly.

But who do you replace him with that is better and cheaper?

Draft picks are a big gamble and even average edge rushers get paid well in free agency.

I am also concerned about his injury history (it was even worse in college) but every player we let walk just creates another hole. We don't have any good players developing to step up.

(12-31-2020, 01:32 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: 1 sack over the last 5 games.
2 sacks over the last 11 games.
9 solo tackles over the last 12 games.

More games missed (13) than sacks (11.5) over the last 3 years combined.

Just don't see how you can offer him starter money. Really seems like a contract where you'd have to just ignore all the red flags and would regret it pretty quickly.

While Carl Lawson doesn't have a lot of sacks, he has 31 QB Hits this year, which is 2nd in the NFL behind TJ Watt.
He also has 40 total pressures, which nearly double last year's.
For comparison, that's more than Carlos Dunlap or Geno Atkins have had in a season since prior to signing their extensions with the Bengals going into 2018. I can only get numbers for 2018, 2019, and 2020, as that's all that pro-football-reference shows.

Obviously sacks are preferred, but there is value to both hits and hurries.

(12-31-2020, 11:51 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I don't recall the Bengals ever extending someone in the middle of the season, but perhaps that's just me being forgetful?

https://www.bengals.com/news/bengals-sign-c-trey-hopkins-to-contract-extension

(12-31-2020, 01:58 PM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: https://www.bengals.com/news/bengals-sign-c-trey-hopkins-to-contract-extension

Thanks. I remember the extension, but thought it came right after the last game. Looks like it was the morning of the last game.

I'd prefer they resign both to reasonable contracts, but Lawson has not really shown he can stay healthy, and WJIII still shines in man coverage but not so much in zone. I wouldn't overpay either. I would really like for them to resign Alexander. I think if we rolled with Phillips, Waynes and Alexander next year we would be fine with Bates and Bell at safety. We just need better backups than Sims.

(12-31-2020, 01:34 PM)fredtoast Wrote: But who do you replace him with that is better and cheaper?

Draft picks are a big gamble and even average edge rushers get paid well in free agency.

I am also concerned about his injury history (it was even worse in college) but every player we let walk just creates another hole. We don't have any good players developing to step up.

Honestly? I don't particularly care about the defense this offseason. The vast majority of all draft capital and FA $ needs to be spent on the offense. They already tried spending on defense in FA, and it got them a hurt QB, a bad defense, and a losing record. Surround Burrow with all the OL and offensive weapons you can possibly draft and buy, then worry about defense. 

This league has gotten horribly stilted towards offense, so roll with it. Make sure your future franchise QB is protected and can thrive.

There are 12 teams with 10+ wins right now. 
-10 of those 12 teams are Top-12 in Scoring Offense.
-7 of those 12 teams are Top-12 in Scoring Defense.

Score points first. Then worry about stopping scoring.  


- - - - - - - - - -
(Interesting side fact, the Browns are the only 10+ win team this year to not be Top-12 in either.)

(12-31-2020, 01:56 PM)ochocincos Wrote: While Carl Lawson doesn't have a lot of sacks, he has 31 QB Hits this year, which is 2nd in the NFL behind TJ Watt.
He also has 40 total pressures, which nearly double last year's.
For comparison, that's more than Carlos Dunlap or Geno Atkins have had in a season since prior to signing their extensions with the Bengals going into 2018. I can only get numbers for 2018, 2019, and 2020, as that's all that pro-football-reference shows.

Obviously sacks are preferred, but there is value to both hits and hurries.

I'm all for pressures and all that, but at some point you need to tangibly produce. It's been 3 years and he's never finished like his rookie year. If you pressure the passer and slide off him, that isn't getting it done. There's too many QBs who can throw on the move out of the pocket now for that to be enough. 

Paying a 5 sack guy like he's a 12 sack guy because of pressures is going to backfire big time. Even without taking Lawson's injury history into account.

(12-31-2020, 01:06 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: What about extending Bates early?

I'd toss him a nice contract now. And it'll help protect that 85.00 jersey investment I made. I have him and JB.

(12-31-2020, 12:59 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I mean, depending on cap situation...they're both worth extending.

I see Jackson as the best CB on some lists.

I'm all for extending WJIII. I like him. The board as a whole thinks of him as something consistent with melon rinds that smell like japanese urine.

Looks like the Ravens are taking advantage of this. They just signed Jimmy Smith to a 1 year extension.

(12-31-2020, 02:18 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Paying a 5 sack guy like he's a 12 sack guy because of pressures is going to backfire big time.

I am not sure I understand your argument.  There are only six "12 sack guys" in the NFL this year, but there are 21 "edge rushers" being paid over $15 million.  The top 5 edge rushers make over $20 million a year.  No one is claiming we should pay Lawson anything like that.

We signed Hopkins to an extension last season. So I wouldn't be surprised if they make another deal like that.

(12-31-2020, 03:08 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I am not sure I understand your argument.  There are only six "12 sack guys" in the NFL this year, but there are 21 "edge rushers" being paid over $15 million.  The top 5 edge rushers make over $20 million a year.  No one is claiming we should pay Lawson anything like that.

Not talking specifically this year, but have they ever, as that's likely what got them paid on those current contracts. I think you knew that before you decided to Fred your numbers.

JJ Watt got paid in 2014 with a 20.5 sack season under his belt. Just because he got 5 sacks in 2020, so you're not counting him towards your 12 sack guys list, but you are counting him on the highly paid list. When he got paid, it was because he had big results as he showed in 2018 when he showed he could still do things with a 16 sack season. He has done it, he can do it. It's something we know as tangible results to point to as reasoning to keep paying him. Results that Lawson has never had. Right now paying Lawson would basically just be on ephemeral non-stats and hope.

I saw someone earlier on this board suggesting franchise tagging Lawson which in 2020 was over $15m. The guy has 5.5 sacks and is averaging about 1 solo tackle per game this year.

I could see the Bengals making offers to WJIII, Lawson, and Alexander under this provision.

I believe Lawson will expect WAY more money on the open market than the Bengals offer, and will decline. He is my primary candidate for the franchise tag. This is a historically weak pass rushing class. I would tag him and make that debate next year if he stays healthy and produces all of next year.

I would offer WJIII a contract, but it would not be as much as Waynes. And that would likely be tough to swallow for WJIII. It has to do with a lack of consistency and turnovers. If he won't accept (and I am assuming he won't), then I see him leaving the Bengals.

Mckenzie Alexander was an absolute steal this year...I can't believe he made less money than Shawn Williams this year. Disgusting. Dude deserves the contract but if he won't sign for around $7-8 million per (I am far from a contract expert and don't have any competitive contracts at his tier of play and position) the Bengals could move Phillips back to the slot and try and sign another CB or draft one early.

That approach worries me. I would hope the Bengals step up for WJIII and watch Waynes very closely next year. As I understand it, they can get out of Waynes contract without much penalty after the 2nd year. That guy may never be good again for all we know. I hate the idea of entering 2021 with him as the #1 CB on the team.

I would rather lose out on Geno, Hart, and a few others than risk losing WJIII.

(12-31-2020, 03:56 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote:  Right now paying Lawson would basically just be on ephemeral non-stats and hope.

What the hell are "ephemeral non-stats"?

Lawson is good at getting pressure/knocking down the QB.  Stats prove it.  Pressuring and/or knocking down the QB effects a QBs passing efficiency.  Again stats prove this.