Reds July Game Thread 2024

[Nicomo Cosca]

(07-14-2024, 09:32 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yep

Once again the Reds turn a not that good of a pitcher (near 5.00 ERA) with zero wins in 18 starts into Cy Young. 

Hard to believe they could watch this offense and still draft a pitcher at #2OA.

[The D.O.Z.]

(07-14-2024, 09:42 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Hard to believe they could watch this offense and still draft a pitcher at #2OA.

Right?! Same shit I was thinking too! The analytics Macintosh made the pick while the rest of the "war room" was outside sharing an inappropriate workplace joke and a smoke.

[*ochocincos*]

Good news - Reds only 3.0 games back from the WC going into the ASB.

Bad news - Reds lost a handful of games to some bad teams because of their hot-and-cold offense. Will we see more of the same the rest of the season, or will they turn the corner and get a WC spot after all?

I'll likely not pay attention once NFL starts back up unless they are still right there in contention, but I'll at least keep up through July.
#ATOBTTR #LGRL

[Goalpost]

8-18 record in one run games kind of cooked them the 1st half.

[*bengalfan74*]

(07-15-2024, 03:00 PM)Goalpost Wrote: 8-18 record in one run games kind of cooked them the 1st half.

Yep

And thus far they've scored two runs or less in 28 games. (two wins) They've been shut out seven times.

Team batting average .231 - 26th place       OBP .306 - 20th place   872 strike outs 6th worst in baseball. 

Team ERA 3.82 good for 12th best in MLB. It's the lack of offense that's killing us and it pops up all the time. 2, 3, and 4 hit games are common. 

[Timanky12]

(07-15-2024, 02:56 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Good news - Reds only 3.0 games back from the WC going into the ASB.

Bad news - Reds lost a handful of games to some bad teams because of their hot-and-cold offense. Will we see more of the same the rest of the season, or will they turn the corner and get a WC spot after all?

I'll likely not pay attention once NFL starts back up unless they are still right there in contention, but I'll at least keep up through July.
#ATOBTTR #LGRL

The Reds are 4 games back in the loss column. Because NY has played 2 fewer games.  If NY wins those games, we are 4 games back. Plus, NY has the tie breaker over us, since they have a 2-1 record against us.  Unless we win the series against NY, we will lose the head to head tie breaker, or have to be 1 gamebetter at the end of the season, which means we are 5 games back.

[Timanky12]

With the Reds being +39 runs run differential, means absolutely nothing if you can’t win the close games. With that run differential, the Reds should have 2nd or 3rd wild card position. But due bad offense in low scoring games, has cost them. With 7 games scoring 0 runs and 9 games scoring 1 run. 7 of those loses were by 2 runs or less. If they win 4 of those games, they would be 51-46 and have the 3rd wild card spot.

[kevin]

Where Are Reds At All-Star Break : 47-50, 3 games under .500....1 game out of last place Cubs, 2 games behind 3rd place Pirates, 4 games behind 2nd place Cardinals, 8 games behind 1st place Brewers.

How Was First Half Of Season : I've seen worse from Reds seasons. 3 games under .500 not that bad. Reds did have good home attendance Memorial Day time and 4th of July time. So Reds owners made some money. Reds won Memorial Day over the Dodgers. Reds lost 4th of July weekend to Detroit, but they had just swept Yankees in The Bronx.

How Are Reds Going Into All-Star Break : They won some games after that bad Detroit series. Reds have new player Hinds smashing home runs, and Fans love that. We can remember July and August of 2019 when Reds Fans loved Aquino as a new player smashing home runs. Of course De La Cruz and Steer are top young players for the Fans. Hunter Greene is pitching well this season.

Can Reds Move Up In Standings This Season : Sure, 2 games out of 3rd and 4 games out of 2nd, of course they can move up with over 2 months left to play.

Are the Reds Sellers or Buyers at Trade Deadline : Remains to be seen. I would hope neither at this point. I would not trade the Reds Futures. I don't see much old age on this team to trade, Reds are a pretty young team these days, which is a good thing. Hopefully Reds are stocked up in Minor Leagues, which is Reds Future. Cincinnati can not buy veteran players as NY or LA type cities, but Cincinnati can have good seasons due to a solid minor league system as Tampa Rays use and are tough often in same division with big city New York, Boston, Toronto and throw in Baltimore. Tampa is the blueprint Reds should follow.

Hidden Plus : No Moose or Votto contracts this season. Means nothing to most Fans, but Reds are not losing mega millions on those 2 players anymore. The money Reds are saving on those 2, will be needed to help make The Reds a more profitable organization going forward. Reds are bouncing back financially from the disaster of No Fans Covid 2020 in either their majors or minors, and few fans in 2021 and 2022. Reds have made money in 2023 and even more money in 2024 with Votto and Moose contracts ending. The Future Is Bright if Reds don't spend money foolishly on high priced, second rate veterans from other teams.

The good thing about a young team is they aren't paid as much as long time veterans. I would say enjoy De La Cruz in the years Reds have him, because he sure talks how he would like to play in LA or NY someday. Reds won't be able to match the big city offers. For now, enjoy watching De La Cruz as a Red.

47-50 at All Star Break. Reds could move up into 2nd place. First place harder, not impossible at 8 games out. Reds would have to beat Brewers in head to head play rest of season. Second Place is very possible.

Will pitchers figure out Hinds as they did Aquino ? Hopefully not as much, or Hinds adjusts better. Aquino fizzled out fast, but it would be nice if Hinds gives Reds much needed offense. Don't expect home runs every day, he will cool off, but hopefully Hinds does more than Aquino did. Reds could use a good young bat.

I have seen The Reds worse at All-Star Break in other seasons. 3 games under .500 and 4 games out of 2nd place is not that bad. GO REDS.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-16-2024, 11:38 AM)kevin Wrote: Hidden Plus :  No Moose or Votto contracts this season.  Means nothing to most Fans, but Reds are not losing mega millions on those 2 players anymore.  The money Reds are saving on those 2, will be needed to help make The Reds a more profitable organization going forward.

And there's Kevin's love of mentioning Votto's money even when it doesn't account for reality....

2023 Reds Payroll: $96.7m
2024 Reds Payroll: $105m

The Reds were not "losing mega millions". They are also not saving any money compared to last year. They are profitable regardless of Votto or not, because they get a huge amount of money from revenue sharing.

[CJD]

(07-14-2024, 09:42 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Hard to believe they could watch this offense and still draft a pitcher at #2OA.

I'm definitely disappointed. I was on the Condon train. Maybe the Reds think it's harder to sign free agent pitchers for GABP than it is to sign free agent hitters, but we don't do much of the latter either. It also makes me wonder if the Reds doubted that Condon could stick in the outfield. He is already a below average runner, so they may be worried as he gets older he will bulk up past being a viable OF, which would constrain him to 1B/DH. May just be copium on my part though.

With that said, Burns is a fantastic prospect worthy of the #2 pick. He has a truly elite slider and he throws his fastball in the triple digits. His profile is a lot like Hunter Greene, but without the projection required due to Greene being drafted as a high schooler.

If he and Hunter (and Lodolo and Lowder) are all in this rotation in 2025 or 2026, we'd be pretty hard to beat, even with a mediocre offense.

But even this offense has been missing CES, McLain, Marte, and Friedl for the majority of the season, so they could see that as the pick up for this offense, rather than a college prospect.

[CJD]

I think this is a good video that described Burns' stuff, pitch shape, and usage.

https://youtu.be/OZSV1vWoPcQ?si=VxjxDxG-z5iH1xXE

[*bengalfan74*]

(07-16-2024, 01:47 PM)CJD Wrote: I'm definitely disappointed. I was on the Condon train. Maybe the Reds think it's harder to sign free agent pitchers for GABP than it is to sign free agent hitters, but we don't do much of the latter either. It also makes me wonder if the Reds doubted that Condon could stick in the outfield. He is already a below average runner, so they may be worried as he gets older he will bulk up past being a viable OF, which would constrain him to 1B/DH. May just be copium on my part though.

With that said, Burns is a fantastic prospect worthy of the #2 pick. He has a truly elite slider and he throws his fastball in the triple digits. His profile is a lot like Hunter Greene, but without the projection required due to Greene being drafted as a high schooler.

If he and Hunter (and Lodolo and Lowder) are all in this rotation in 2025 or 2026, we'd be pretty hard to beat, even with a mediocre offense.

But even this offense has been missing CES, McLain, Marte, and Friedl for the majority of the season, so they could see that as the pick up for this offense, rather than a college prospect.

I'd say that was the thought process. Was it a good decision? Time will tell

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-16-2024, 01:47 PM)CJD Wrote: But even this offense has been missing CES, McLain, Marte, and Friedl for the majority of the season, so they could see that as the pick up for this offense, rather than a college prospect.

It's looking like Marte might not be so great without roids and Friedl is always just going to get hurt (and McLain has been on the 60-day IL twice in his 2 years so his 2025 could decide if he's even slightly reliable or not).

Other injuries are always going to happen. If you are always just waiting to have 100% health in order to not have an excuse of why you have a bad team, you're always going to have a bad team. It was why I was so confused when people were so quick last offseason to write off India from the 2024 roster due to "too much depth".

[The D.O.Z.]

Was sorta watching the local news earlier while making dinner, and they mentioned how the NL manager should put Elly in as a PR when it comes to start pulling starter's and someone gets on base. That the casual fan or fans of other teams came to see Elly on the base paths. I second that idea. PR him for someone, then sub out the starting SS the following half inning and let Elly showcase his fielding too while getting an AB or two finishing the game.

[guyofthetiger]

Greene gave up the AllStar game winning home run. Elly did well and played third base.

[*ochocincos*]

(07-15-2024, 07:28 PM)Timanky12 Wrote: The Reds are 4 games back in the loss column. Because NY has played 2 fewer games.  If NY wins those games, we are 4 games back. Plus, NY has the tie breaker over us, since they have a 2-1 record against us.  Unless we win the series against NY, we will lose the head to head tie breaker, or have to be 1 gamebetter at the end of the season, which means we are 5 games back.

Yep I know how the games back works bud.

[CJD]

(07-16-2024, 08:10 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: It's looking like Marte might not be so great without roids and Friedl is always just going to get hurt (and McLain has been on the 60-day IL twice in his 2 years so his 2025 could decide if he's even slightly reliable or not).

Other injuries are always going to happen. If you are always just waiting to have 100% health in order to not have an excuse of why you have a bad team, you're always going to have a bad team. It was why I was so confused when people were so quick last offseason to write off India from the 2024 roster due to "too much depth".

I agree that injuries happen and that hope is not a strategy, but 4 starters missing the majority of a season is not normal and very few teams would have a functional offense in that case. 

Imagine a Dodgers offense where Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Teoscar Hernandez were all injured for a majority of the season. 

They'd be playing Enrique Hernandez (557 OPS), Gavin Lux (562 OPS), Miguel Rojas (756 OPS, which is respectable), and Andy Pages (706 OPS, also fairly respectable) in their 1 through 4 slots, and they'd likely have to lean on players like James Outman (516 OPS) and Chris Taylor (525 OPS) for every day at bats.

They're already one of the worst teams in the majors from 7 to 9, and those 4 major injuries would make their entire lineup below average or terrible, with the exception of Will Smith.


Now, I'm not saying CES, Marte, Friedl and McLain are Ohtani/Betts/Freeman/Hernandez level talents, but the point is, even the best offenses will falter when they lose half their starters.

I hope the Reds have big plans this coming off season, because if they don't want to draft Condon, then I hope they have a long term solution in mind for a right handed bat in the outfield that isn't just "I hope Hinds never regresses to the mean."

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(07-17-2024, 12:03 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Yep I know how the games back works bud.

That's the Chicken Little syndrome. Everything that he typed up means something . . . in mid-September. It means jack shit in July.

So, they're 5 back from the 3rd WC Mets . . . wait until he finds out that they're only 3.5 behind the 2nd WC Cardinals.

[*ochocincos*]

(07-16-2024, 11:38 AM)kevin Wrote: Where Are Reds At All-Star Break :  47-50, 3 games under .500....1 game out of last place Cubs, 2 games behind 3rd place Pirates, 4 games behind 2nd place Cardinals, 8 games behind 1st place Brewers.

How Was First Half Of Season :  I've seen worse from Reds seasons.  3 games under .500 not that bad.  Reds did have good home attendance Memorial Day time and 4th of July time.  So Reds owners made some money.  Reds won Memorial Day over the Dodgers.  Reds lost 4th of July weekend to Detroit, but they had just swept Yankees in The Bronx.

How Are Reds Going Into All-Star Break :  They won some games after that bad Detroit series.  Reds have new player Hinds smashing home runs, and Fans love that.  We can remember July and August of 2019 when Reds Fans loved Aquino as a new player smashing home runs.   Of course De La Cruz and Steer are top young players for the Fans.  Hunter Greene is pitching well this season.  

Can Reds Move Up In Standings This Season :  Sure, 2 games out of 3rd and 4 games out of 2nd, of course they can move up with over 2 months left to play.  

Are the Reds Sellers or Buyers at Trade Deadline :  Remains to be seen.  I would hope neither at this point.  I would not trade the Reds Futures.  I don't see much old age on this team to trade, Reds are a pretty young team these days, which is a good thing.  Hopefully Reds are stocked up in Minor Leagues, which is Reds Future.  Cincinnati can not buy veteran players as NY or LA type cities, but Cincinnati can have good seasons due to a solid minor league system as Tampa Rays use and are tough often in same division with big city New York, Boston, Toronto and throw in Baltimore.  Tampa is the blueprint Reds should follow.

Hidden Plus :  No Moose or Votto contracts this season.  Means nothing to most Fans, but Reds are not losing mega millions on those 2 players anymore.  The money Reds are saving on those 2, will be needed to help make The Reds a more profitable organization going forward.  Reds are bouncing back financially from the disaster of No Fans Covid 2020 in either their majors or minors, and few fans in 2021 and 2022.   Reds have made money in 2023 and even more money in 2024 with Votto and Moose contracts ending.  The Future Is Bright if Reds don't spend money foolishly on high priced, second rate veterans from other teams.

The good thing about a young team is they aren't paid as much as long time veterans.  I would say enjoy De La Cruz in the years Reds have him, because he sure talks how he would like to play in LA or NY someday.  Reds won't be able to match the big city offers.  For now, enjoy watching De La Cruz as a Red.

47-50 at All Star Break.  Reds could move up into 2nd place.  First place harder, not impossible at 8 games out.  Reds would have to beat Brewers in head to head play rest of season.  Second Place is very possible.  

Will pitchers figure out Hinds as they did Aquino ?  Hopefully not as much, or Hinds adjusts better.  Aquino fizzled out fast, but it would be nice if Hinds gives Reds much needed offense.  Don't expect home runs every day, he will cool off, but hopefully Hinds does more than Aquino did.  Reds could use a good young bat.

I have seen The Reds worse at All-Star Break in other seasons.  3 games under .500 and 4 games out of 2nd place is not that bad.  GO REDS.

Reds ended last season just 2 games over .500, so they're right about on par as last year.
Where they improved in starting pitching, they've declined in hitting overall.

Reds have 65 games left.
If they go 33-32 the rest of the way, they'll end up 80-82.
I think slightly optimistic-but-realistic prediction is 38-27, resulting in 85-77.
That could be enough to get them into the postseason, as last year two NL WC teams had 84 wins.

[The D.O.Z.]

Just read a story on the ESPN app that our new #2OA draft pick just signed and got $9.25 million, beating out Paul Skenes' signing from last year. An organization that has been notoriously tight in the wallet for the past few years is giving out THAT much?! Is the plan to fast track him to MLB like Skenes? I don't know enough about the kid other than he has a nice FB and a scary good slider. Is his stuff refined enough to fast track him? If it is, and they believe it is..does that make any of our current MiLB pitchers expendable for trades THIS TDL? I know the saying "you can never have too much pitching" but the Reds also have "you can never have too many MIFs" right now as well and not enough "you can never have too many OFs". Does a big $$$ rookie signing push any of Chase Petty, Brandon Williamson, or Connor Philips into the "we can make a deal" talks I hope they are making this TDL?