Reds August Game Thread 2024

[cinci4life]

That was some nice defense from the Marlins.

[cinci4life]

So Marte struggles making a normal throw to first but executes a spin throw to perfection.

[cinci4life]

Have a game EDLC!!!!

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Reds have 40 hits, 7 doubles, 14 home runs, and 29 runs scored against the Marlins in 4 games this year.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-05-2024, 10:19 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote:

Reds have 40 hits, 7 doubles, 14 home runs, and 29 runs scored against the Marlins in 4 games this year.

Yes

The Reds explode for 15 hits and 10 runs on offense, woot. Against one of....you know.... the worst teams in the league with a struggling young starter.

We're gonna win all dem world serieses.

[Nicomo Cosca]

I can’t wait to see how good Elly will be in his mid twenties. What this kid is doing at only 22 is nuts.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-06-2024, 12:07 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I can’t wait to see how good Elly will be in his mid twenties. What this kid is doing at only 22 is nuts.

Oh I too believe Elly could end up as one of the greats of the game. But he desperately needs a real manager and a top notch hitting coach. 

[cinci4life]

Tucker Barnhart is back with the Reds.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/08/reds-sign-tucker-barnhart-to-minor-league-deal.html

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-06-2024, 06:36 PM)cinci4life Wrote: Tucker Barnhart is back with the Reds.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/08/reds-sign-tucker-barnhart-to-minor-league-deal.html

Good for him but he just doesn't move the needle much, if at all?

[*bengalfan74*]

Lodolo going this evening. I wonder if he can not get clobbered facing a not so great team?

[cinci4life]

Always the 4th inning with Lodolo.

[*bengalfan74*]

Elly on fire !! keep it going

[*ochocincos*]

(08-05-2024, 07:15 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: yup

I realize between Marte getting suspended, McClain going down, Friedl not being able to stay on the field, then CES stinking (when he was in) put a big damper on the season. But I didn't think we would stink this bad on offense. 

EDLC has done ok in one sense, but 143 K's ummm. Candelairo has been way to up and down and just not worth it. India has been up and down and just mediocre overall. Fraley has been decent on average but his power is gone. Benson needs sent down. 

At this point I'm jst not sure who's worth keeping and who they shold move on from??

It's been disheartening for me! I never would have guessed Steer would flop this bad.

If I'm gonna pick up a bat, it's gonna be at one of the positions that usually has a strong bat - 1B, LF, DH.

1B is probably the position easiest to find a bat for and the Reds also have no one with any true proof of hitting ability there.
CES did well last year in 63 games played, but he was not doing well this year before getting HBP and out since April 27.

LF I think Steer is solid, but I also liked him at corner IF.

Looking at the roster next year, here is who I see as the starting lineup:
OF - Steer, Friedl, Fraley
1B - CES
2B - McLain
SS - EDLC
3B - Candelario
C - Stephenson
DH - Hinds/Marte

Hinds may not get promoted back at the beginning of the season and Marte has looked terrible since back from PED suspension.
There's definitely room to add 1 bat to help cover at DH, and then another for 1B/LF insurance would also help if CES doesn't get back to his 2023 form.
A DH/1B flex guy might be the best option if only adding 1 person. And it could be an older dude.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-07-2024, 11:50 AM)ochocincos Wrote: If I'm gonna pick up a bat, it's gonna be at one of the positions that usually has a strong bat - 1B, LF, DH.

1B is probably the position easiest to find a bat for and the Reds also have no one with any true proof of hitting ability there.
CES did well last year in 63 games played, but he was not doing well this year before getting HBP and out since April 27.

LF I think Steer is solid, but I also liked him at corner IF.

Looking at the roster next year, here is who I see as the starting lineup:
OF - Steer, Friedl, Fraley
1B - CES
2B - McLain
SS - EDLC
3B - Candelario
C - Stephenson
DH - Hinds/Marte

Hinds may not get promoted back at the beginning of the season and Marte has looked terrible since back from PED suspension.
There's definitely room to add 1 bat to help cover at DH, and then another for 1B/LF insurance would also help if CES doesn't get back to his 2023 form.
A DH/1B flex guy might be the best option if only adding 1 person. And it could be an older dude.

I agree a good bit, here's my run down:

Solid guys- part of future

Steer - The guy despite the average slipping a good bit is still our most solid position player. He leads the team in RBI's again this season. He has a solid swing and it's easy to see him being a part of the future. 

ELDC - Obvious reasons.

Stephenson - The guy doesn't blow you way at the plate, but he hits plenty well enough for a catcher. And he's good enough on Defense.

India - Man I just can't get off the fence with this guy. The six weeks out of the season he's on (at the plate) he's electric. The problem comes in because he has another six or eight weeks a season of being so-so. And then another six or eight weeks of being below average to just bad. The add in the fact that his defense isn't great and..... I'm ok keeping him or moving on.

Friedl**- Man he's a good un when he's healthy. But he's leaning very hard towards the fragile side and I'm just nervous about relying on him as starter. Hope he proves me wrong. 

Fraley/Espinal- I think both are worth keeping as bench players/spot starters. Fraley's power drop concerns me though. Espinal is just a Swiss army knife on defense.

Now is where it starts getting murky IMHO:

McClain - what's the deal with him? can he come back and be the same player? He was hands down one of my favorite Reds last season. Along with Elly and Steer.

CES- giant question mark for me? Most often this season despite his campaign last year, he looked lost at the plate this year. Just not sure what to make of his future?

Marte - just copy and paste above post.

Hinds_ just to small a sample size to say much. And most of the rest, same Herd of bees and so on.

Candelairo I just can't see being part of the future. Benson should have been sent down a month or two ago.

To me there's a ton of unanswered questions for this team and most aren't going to be answered with what's left. My main hope is new manager and coaches.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-07-2024, 11:50 AM)ochocincos Wrote: If I'm gonna pick up a bat, it's gonna be at one of the positions that usually has a strong bat - 1B, LF, DH.

1B is probably the position easiest to find a bat for and the Reds also have no one with any true proof of hitting ability there.
CES did well last year in 63 games played, but he was not doing well this year before getting HBP and out since April 27.

LF I think Steer is solid, but I also liked him at corner IF.

Looking at the roster next year, here is who I see as the starting lineup:
OF - Steer, Friedl, Fraley
1B - CES
2B - McLain
SS - EDLC
3B - Candelario
C - Stephenson
DH - Hinds/Marte

Hinds may not get promoted back at the beginning of the season and Marte has looked terrible since back from PED suspension.
There's definitely room to add 1 bat to help cover at DH, and then another for 1B/LF insurance would also help if CES doesn't get back to his 2023 form.
A DH/1B flex guy might be the best option if only adding 1 person. And it could be an older dude.

EDLC can't be the SS in 2025, he's going to have 30 errors this season. He needs to kick over to 3B. They desperately need to find a way to offload Candelario this offseason to make that space. McLain to SS and unless you have a significant upgrade, keep India at 2B.

Fraley they have firmly stuck into a platoon role, so he's not a starter on his own, he only has 260 PA so far this year compared to Steer and EDLC's 460-480 right now so only ~55%, so need someone to match with him. Maybe that's Hinds?

Friedl is such a weird one. I think he ultimately might be a 4th OF type for us in 2025 because he just keeps getting hurt, he's not hitting now, and he'll be in his age 29 season next year so there's not really anymore upwards for him. It's probably the start of the decline. I guess he could also be the vs LHP OF paired with Fraley as that's been his career split leaning.

Using the DH to let Marte be an offensive black hole just can't be allowed to happen. Doesn't have the same "juice" as last year.

- - - - - -

So I think we have potential full-time upgrade spots at... 
CF and DH.
Or 3B and DH if EDLC moves to CF instead of 3B.
Or 1B and DH if EDLC moves to CF instead of 3B and CES moves to 3B instead of 1B.

If we're talking a proper good signing and just going ahead and assuming we're not going to get Juan Soto (or realistically probably not anyone good, but going that far probably defeats the purpose/fun of discussion) some good/interesting options include...
Pete Alonso: 1B or DH
JD Martinez: DH
Tyler O'Neill: LF, moving Steer to DH
Teoscar Hernandez: RF, which lets you put Fraley at DH and then platoon him with Tyler Stephenson when he's not catching
Joc Pederson: DH

Assuming we're just talking FAs and not any trades I think you could go....
OF - Steer, EDLC, Teoscar Hernandez (Friedl and Hinds as 4th and 5th OF)

1B - Pete Alonso
2B - India
SS - McLain
3B - CES
C - Stephenson/Backup Catcher
DH - Fraley vs RHP/Stephenson vs LHP when not catching

And that sounds like a lineup that could be pretty decent.

[CJD]

(08-07-2024, 01:20 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: EDLC can't be the SS in 2025, he's going to have 30 errors this season. He needs to kick over to 3B. They desperately need to find a way to offload Candelario this offseason to make that space. McLain to SS and unless you have a significant upgrade, keep India at 2B.

Fraley they have firmly stuck into a platoon role, so he's not a starter on his own, he only has 260 PA so far this year compared to Steer and EDLC's 460-480 right now so only ~55%, so need someone to match with him. Maybe that's Hinds?

Friedl is such a weird one. I think he ultimately might be a 4th OF type for us in 2025 because he just keeps getting hurt, he's not hitting now, and he'll be in his age 29 season next year so there's not really anymore upwards for him. It's probably the start of the decline. I guess he could also be the vs LHP OF paired with Fraley as that's been his career split leaning.

Using the DH to let Marte be an offensive black hole just can't be allowed to happen. Doesn't have the same "juice" as last year.

- - - - - -

So I think we have potential full-time upgrade spots at... 
CF and DH.
Or 3B and DH if EDLC moves to CF instead of 3B.
Or 1B and DH if EDLC moves to CF instead of 3B and CES moves to 3B instead of 1B.

If we're talking a proper good signing and just going ahead and assuming we're not going to get Juan Soto (or realistically probably not anyone good, but going that far probably defeats the purpose/fun of discussion) some good/interesting options include...
Pete Alonso: 1B or DH
JD Martinez: DH
Tyler O'Neill: LF, moving Steer to DH
Teoscar Hernandez: RF, which lets you put Fraley at DH and then platoon him with Tyler Stephenson when he's not catching
Joc Pederson: DH

Assuming we're just talking FAs and not any trades I think you could go....
OF - Steer, EDLC, Teoscar Hernandez (Friedl and Hinds as 4th and 5th OF)

1B - Pete Alonso
2B - India
SS - McLain
3B - CES
C - Stephenson/Backup Catcher
DH - Fraley vs RHP/Stephenson vs LHP when not catching

And that sounds like a lineup that could be pretty decent.

Elly is 91st percentile in fielding run value. He is 97th percentile in range/outs above average (10) and 91st percentile in arm strength. 

Relative to other players, he is 5th overall in the majors at shortstop in fielding run value and Outs above average.

The only shortstops who are better fielders than him this year are Bobby Witt Jr, Dansby Swanson, Anthony Volpe, and Francisco Lindor. 

He needs to cut down on errors, but the upside he provides FAR outweighs his occasional mistake.

I wouldn't mind seeing him at 3B because I think having an elite 3B/SS combo is generally better than an elite SS/2B combo, but it's close. Do you want to protect the middle of the infield or the far side of the infield? That's how I would decide where I would put McLain and Elly. But Elly is comfortably capable (and some may even call him elite) at either 3B or SS.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-07-2024, 02:20 PM)CJD Wrote: Elly is 91st percentile in fielding run value. He is 97th percentile in range/outs above average (10) and 91st percentile in arm strength. 

Relative to other players, he is 5th overall in the majors at shortstop in fielding run value and Outs above average.

The only shortstops who are better fielders than him this year are Bobby Witt Jr, Dansby Swanson, Anthony Volpe, and Francisco Lindor. 

He needs to cut down on errors, but the upside he provides FAR outweighs his occasional mistake.

I wouldn't mind seeing him at 3B because I think having an elite 3B/SS combo is generally better than an elite SS/2B combo, but it's close. Do you want to protect the middle of the infield or the far side of the infield? That's how I would decide where I would put McLain and Elly. But Elly is comfortably capable (and some may even call him elite) at either 3B or SS.

A lot of advanced metrics are interesting and/or useful. That said any advanced metric that tries to tell me that a person can be on pace for 30 errors and be an elite defender is one I am just simply going to be automatically extremely skeptical of. That's up there with the folks back in 2011 talking about how Homer Bailey's xFIP of 3.77 was better than Johnny Cueto's xFIP of 3.90... even though Bailey had an ERA of 4.43 and averaged 6.0 innings per start and Cueto had an ERA of 2.31 and averaged ~6.2 innings per start. (This year Cruz has a 2.89 xFIP, Lodolo has a 3.83 xFIP, and Greene has a 4.12 xFIP... oh and Ashcraft and Montas both have a better one than Abbott, so you can't just take any metrics as straight gospel on their own, lol.)

Looking at other defensive advanced metrics EDLC ranks among 42 SS with at least 200 innings this year...
-6 Defensive Runs Saved (38th)
-1.8 Double Play Runs Above Average (41st)
-0.9 Range Runs Above Average (34th)
-2.3 Error Runs Above Average (37th)
-4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating (41st)
-8.1 UZR/150 (34th)

If a guy is leading MLB in errors, is on pace for 30 of them, and 6 other metrics back it up, common sense seems to be to ignore the other 2 that are saying he's elite.

[*ochocincos*]

(08-07-2024, 01:20 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: If we're talking a proper good signing and just going ahead and assuming we're not going to get Juan Soto (or realistically probably not anyone good, but going that far probably defeats the purpose/fun of discussion) some good/interesting options include...
Pete Alonso: 1B or DH
JD Martinez: DH
Tyler O'Neill: LF, moving Steer to DH
Teoscar Hernandez: RF, which lets you put Fraley at DH and then platoon him with Tyler Stephenson when he's not catching
Joc Pederson: DH

I think even someone like Pete Alonso is a pipe dream and is not someone realistic for the Reds to sign.
They got guys like EDLC who will be coming up on big contract in the near future, so I can see them saving for extensions for some of those guys.

Joc Pederson might be someone near the top of what they would be willing to spend.
I don't see them spending >$15 mill APY for a hitter, especially after arguably overpaying for Candelario at $15 mill APY.

I think we all agree that they have room to add a bat or two. I just don't think they'll spend for a big name.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-07-2024, 03:50 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think even someone like Pete Alonso is a pipe dream and is not someone realistic for the Reds to sign.
They got guys like EDLC who will be coming up on big contract in the near future, so I can see them saving for extensions for some of those guys.

Joc Pederson might be someone near the top of what they would be willing to spend.
I don't see them spending >$15 mill APY for a hitter, especially after arguably overpaying for Candelario at $15 mill APY.

I think we all agree that they have room to add a bat or two. I just don't think they'll spend for a big name.

If EDLC becomes anywhere near as good as we hope he is, and even IF he doesn't want to play in LA or NY (he does), the Reds aren't ever going to give him the 10yr/$400m or larger contract it takes to sign a young superstar player then. He's also a Scott Boras client, so it's not like he's not going to sign early for way less than he could get if he believes he will become a superstar. He's not a FA until 2030, which means he'll likely be on the Reds until at least 2029 before they trade him, so enjoy the 4-4.5 more years of him in a Reds uniform before he's gone.

EDLC is in the same Juan Soto category if he becomes as good as we think he will be, and Greene is already signed. There's nobody else they need to pay. 

They already have under team control...
Green until he's 30
Stephenson until he's 30
India until he's 30
Friedl until he's 33
Strand until he's 30
Steer until he's 31
Fraley until he's 32
Abbott until he's 31
Lodolo until he's 30

For whom are you saving up in order to pay?

- - - - - - -

"We wasted money on a bad player, why would we spend money on a good player?" isn't a great method to run a team. Lol

I never said they WOULD spend for a good player, I just said what I would hope they'd do in an ideal no-Soto FA-only scenario.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-07-2024, 02:56 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: A lot of advanced metrics are interesting and/or useful. That said any advanced metric that tries to tell me that a person can be on pace for 30 errors and be an elite defender is one I am just simply going to be automatically extremely skeptical of. That's up there with the folks back in 2011 talking about how Homer Bailey's xFIP of 3.77 was better than Johnny Cueto's xFIP of 3.90... even though Bailey had an ERA of 4.43 and averaged 6.0 innings per start and Cueto had an ERA of 2.31 and averaged ~6.2 innings per start. (This year Cruz has a 2.89 xFIP, Lodolo has a 3.83 xFIP, and Greene has a 4.12 xFIP... oh and Ashcraft and Montas both have a better one than Abbott, so you can't just take any metrics as straight gospel on their own, lol.)

Looking at other defensive advanced metrics EDLC ranks among 42 SS with at least 200 innings this year...
-6 Defensive Runs Saved (38th)
-1.8 Double Play Runs Above Average (41st)
-0.9 Range Runs Above Average (34th)
-2.3 Error Runs Above Average (37th)
-4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating (41st)
-8.1 UZR/150 (34th)

If a guy is leading MLB in errors, is on pace for 30 of them, and 6 other metrics back it up, common sense seems to be to ignore the other 2 that are saying he's elite.

Elly needs to be moved to RF, CF, or 3B and in my mind in that order.