Reds August Game Thread 2024

[cinci4life]

(08-11-2024, 04:13 PM)cinci4life Wrote: Cuzzi having a rough game behind the plate. Feels like just a matter of time before someone gets tossed.

And there it is. Goodbye Contreras. Funny thing is he has been buying calls framing pitches and he's getting pissed for pitches that actually are strikes.

[cinci4life]

REDS WIN!!!

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-11-2024, 01:00 PM)samhain Wrote: You also have to weigh EDLC's skill set when considering his long-term viability.  He's catching up with plate discipline, but his speed is what makes him unicorn special, without a doubt.  He gets runs and bases that other players just can't.  He turns a lot of outs into singles and doubles into triples.  Opposing defenses get thrown off by the liability he creates after a usually innocuous walk.  

How's that going to work when he's 30?  I suppose the speed could linger a bit longer.  Rickey Henderson was about 90 years old when he started to slow down, but he also had a more compact and muscular build.  Elly is a lanky beanpole and that scares me when it comes to health.  

I'm not saying he's not worth paying into his 30's.  I am saying that he'll need to continue to improve a lot at the plate to justify the kind of money he's going to get no matter what we think.  He's a Ferrari straight off of the showroom floor right now, and he's driving his speed like he stole it.  I love watching it, but it seems like a young man's skill set more than a long term one.

He also needs to drop being a switch hitter. Being a switch hitter is only a benefit if you're actually good at it. If it's not a switch hitting problem and just a matchup problem, he'll always be held back by not being able to hit left handed pitching....

EDLC as a lefty hitter: .274/.348/.518 (866 OPS)
EDLC as a righty hitter: .199/.279/.314 (.594 OPS)

Not just the BA being a huge difference, but he also has no power as a righty/vs lefties with his .115 ISO being not far off Jose Peraza's .106 career number. Meanwhile his .215 ISO as a lefty vs righties is legit slugging power.

He's still young enough that he can still improve and get better and learn to hit lefty pitching, but he has to at least get to being a decent hitter against lefties if he wants to be a superstar. I can't think of a single hitter who everyone considered "elite" or a "star" that was sub-Mendoza against pitchers of either arm. You don't have to be equally dominant (Ohtani has a .985 OPS vs RHP and .829 vs LHP, Votto was .951 vs RHP and .852 vs LHP just as examples) but you have to at least be good. There's no such thing as a superstar that makes hundreds of millions of dollars, but needs to be in a platoon.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-11-2024, 04:59 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: I cannot wait until I can honestly say/type/hear the words "Former Reds manager David Bell".

X 1,000 for me

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-11-2024, 07:05 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: He also needs to drop being a switch hitter. Being a switch hitter is only a benefit if you're actually good at it. If it's not a switch hitting problem and just a matchup problem, he'll always be held back by not being able to hit left handed pitching....

EDLC as a lefty hitter: .274/.348/.518 (866 OPS)
EDLC as a righty hitter: .199/.279/.314 (.594 OPS)

Not just the BA being a huge difference, but he also has no power as a righty/vs lefties with his .115 ISO being not far off Jose Peraza's .106 career number. Meanwhile his .215 ISO as a lefty vs righties is legit slugging power.

He's still young enough that he can still improve and get better and learn to hit lefty pitching, but he has to at least get to being a decent hitter against lefties if he wants to be a superstar. I can't think of a single hitter who everyone considered "elite" or a "star" that was sub-Mendoza against pitchers of either arm. You don't have to be equally dominant (Ohtani has a .985 OPS vs RHP and .829 vs LHP, Votto was .951 vs RHP and .852 vs LHP just as examples) but you have to at least be good. There's no such thing as a superstar that makes hundreds of millions of dollars, but needs to be in a platoon.

For sure

[The D.O.Z.]

Not sure I want EDLC dropping switch hitting with the way our current …manager….is obsessed with L/R match ups. Right now, EDLC’s RH counterpart would be Espinal. Yikes. At least with Elly batting RH, he ensures he stays in the game. What I would prefer is more BUNTS from the RH side. If the BA and OPS are gonna be low, try bunting with that speed!

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-11-2024, 10:03 PM)The D.O.Z. Wrote: Not sure I want EDLC dropping switch hitting with the way our current …manager….is obsessed with L/R match ups. Right now, EDLC’s RH counterpart would be Espinal. Yikes. At least with Elly batting RH, he ensures he stays in the game. What I would prefer is more BUNTS from the RH side. If the BA and OPS are gonna be low, try bunting with that speed!

And yet...

Espinal 2024 vs LHP: .264/.327/.495 (.821 OPS)
EDLC 2024 vs LHP: .211/.314/.354 (.667 OPS)

Espinal in 2024 has 6 HR in 107 PA against LHP.
EDLC in 2024 has 5 HR in 171 PA against LHP.

Espinal's actually a career .293 hitter against LHP.

Need to see EDLC drop switch hitting to see if he can hit LHP better as a LHB, because he's struggling hard against them as a RHB.

[cinci4life]

Steer and Elly back to back on 2 straight pitches!

[cinci4life]

3 WINS IN A ROW!!!

[cinci4life]

Cubs lose again putting Reds into 3rd in the division. Another Reds win tomorrow jumps them to 2nd.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

Ho hum . . . another seven inning, one run performance by Greene. Yawn. ERA down to 2.83. He is on cruise control right now. He was normally hitting the 100 pitch mark by the 5th inning. Thank Frankie Montas for telling him to quit wasting so many  pitches when he has two strikes.


Ty France in his last nine games after a 1 for 12 start - 9 for 31 . . . .290 batting average with three RBI on three solo shots.

(08-13-2024, 10:19 PM)cinci4life Wrote: Cubs lose again putting Reds into 3rd in the division. Another Reds win tomorrow jumps them to 2nd.

It's pretty wild, isn't it? The Reds are 4.5 games back from the third wild card spot held by . . . the Braves? Currently 2-0 against them with three games scheduled in Cincinnati and one more "postponed" game in Atlanta still floating around. It was initially scheduled for September 9th, but it was moved back to postponed status a couple of days later. The Reds are 8.5 games behind San Diego and Arizona, who are on another planet right now. The Reds were one game behind Arizona on July 9th . . . . they have gone 15-13 since and they are now 8.5 behind the Diamondbacks.

The Padres are 18-4 since the All-Star break after going 1-6 leading up to it.

Arizona is 19-5 after the break, on a 23-6 run right now as they were 4-1 leading into the All-Star game.

Wild Card standings on July 9th
51-39 _ +4.5 Atlanta
48-42 _ +1.5 St Louis
49-46  _ 0 San Diego
------------------------
45-45 _ -1.5 New York
45-47 _ -2.5 Arizona
45-47 _ -2.5 San Francisco
44-47 _ -3 Pittsburgh
44-48 _ -3.5 Cincinnati
43-49 _ -4.5 Chicago

Current Wild Card standings
68-53 _ +4 Arizona . . .  Reds lost tie breaker, 1-5
68-53 _ +4 San Diego . . . . Reds lost tie breaker, 2-4
63-56 _ 0 Atlanta . . . 12-17 since July 9th. The Reds have picked up 3.5 games and they have 11 more games vs Philadelphia and LA.
------------------------
61-58 _ -2 New York . . . Reds are 1-2 vs them with three more games in NY.
61-61 _ -3.5 San Francisco - Reds lost tie breaker, 2-4
60-60 _ -3.5 St Louis . . .  Reds are 5-4 vs the Cardinals with 4 more games remaining
59-61 _ -4.5 Cincinnati . . . 15-13 since July 9th, 7-5 in August.
59-62 _ -5 Chicago . . .  Reds secured the tie breaker going 7-3 vs the Cubs with the season finale three game series in Chicago
56-63 _ -7 Pittsburgh . . . Reds are 2-4 vs Pittsburgh with seven games left. Currently on a nine game losing streak.

[CJD]

Hunter Greene's season rankings among pitchers in various traditional statistics:

ERA: 2.83 (5th in MLB, 3rdin NL)
IP: 144.2 (11th in MLB, 5th in NL )
Strikeouts: 162 (7th in MLB, 4th in NL)
WAR: 5.3 (2nd in MLB, 1st in NL)
WHIP: 1.02 (9th in MLB, 5th in NL)
BAA: .185 (3rd in MLB, 1st in NL)

Per Statcast:

xERA is 2.95, which is 89th percentile.
xBAA is .189, which is 97th percentile.
95th percentile in fastball speed (97.6 mph)
89th percentile in barrel%
87th percentile in hard hit%

I don't know if Skenes will continue to cruise through the season and win the NL Cy Young but, if the people who select these things think that his ~10 fewer starts relative to every other NL pitcher in contention is a deal breaker, Hunter Greene has got to be a top 2 nominee for NL Cy Young right now.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-14-2024, 09:42 AM)CJD Wrote: Hunter Greene's season rankings among pitchers in various traditional statistics:

ERA: 2.83 (5th in MLB, 3rdin NL)
IP: 144.2 (11th in MLB, 5th in NL )
Strikeouts: 162 (7th in MLB, 4th in NL)
WAR: 5.3 (2nd in MLB, 1st in NL)
WHIP: 1.02 (9th in MLB, 5th in NL)
BAA: .185 (3rd in MLB, 1st in NL)

Per Statcast:

xERA is 2.95, which is 89th percentile.
xBAA is .189, which is 97th percentile.
95th percentile in fastball speed (97.6 mph)
89th percentile in barrel%
87th percentile in hard hit%

I don't know if Skenes will continue to cruise through the season and win the NL Cy Young but, if the people who select these things think that his ~10 fewer starts relative to every other NL pitcher in contention is a deal breaker, Hunter Greene has got to be a top 2 nominee for NL Cy Young right now.

Skenes might be fading a bit. 
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/pittsburgh-pirates-paul-skenes-continues-worrisome-trend-in-latest-loss/ar-AA1oBQC3

Greene is still 3rd/4th behind Sale and Wheeler, but potentially behind or ahead of Skenes (Reynaldo Lopez being on the IL helps as he still has a 2.06 ERA, but is going to fall behind further in IP). One of the big problems with WAR is everyone calculates it differently. On Fangraphs he's 4th at 3.7 instead of 5.3, which just keeps showing why I pay less and less attention to WAR unless it's to note that a guy has a negative one.


The odds makers currently have it... Sale, Wheeler, Skenes, Greene.

[CJD]

(08-14-2024, 10:31 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Skenes might be fading a bit. 
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/pittsburgh-pirates-paul-skenes-continues-worrisome-trend-in-latest-loss/ar-AA1oBQC3

Greene is still 3rd/4th behind Sale and Wheeler, but potentially behind or ahead of Skenes (Reynaldo Lopez being on the IL helps as he still has a 2.06 ERA, but is going to fall behind further in IP). One of the big problems with WAR is everyone calculates it differently. On Fangraphs he's 4th at 3.7 instead of 5.3, which just keeps showing why I pay less and less attention to WAR unless it's to note that a guy has a negative one.


The odds makers currently have it... Sale, Wheeler, Skenes, Greene.

I'm curious how those WAR numbers can be so far apart haha. Oh well. Even if Greene doesn't win the Cy Young, this has been an outstanding breakout season and it seems like this is sustainable development. This article gives a good idea of what changed from 2023 to 2024. It has a lot to do with his splitter, which looks almost identical to his fastball out of his hand (same spin angle, per the article), and it seems to have the same arm angle and arm speed, based on this overlay, but is over 10 mph slower (97.6 mph vs 87 mph) and has almost 50 inches of vertical difference (16.6" induced rise on the fastball vs 31.7" drop for the splitter) between them. 

I imagine it is very difficult to distinguish between the two of them before it's too late.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-14-2024, 10:56 AM)CJD Wrote: I'm curious how those WAR numbers can be so far apart haha. Oh well. Even if Greene doesn't win the Cy Young, this has been an outstanding breakout season and it seems like this is sustainable development. This article gives a good idea of what changed from 2023 to 2024. It has a lot to do with his splitter, which looks almost identical to his fastball out of his hand (same spin angle, per the article), and it seems to have the same arm angle and arm speed, based on this overlay, but is over 10 mph slower (97.6 mph vs 87 mph) and has almost 50 inches of vertical difference (16.6" induced rise on the fastball vs 31.7" drop for the splitter) between them. 

I imagine it is very difficult to distinguish between the two of them before it's too late.

I think he has a decent chance but it's kinda a long shot chance as well. Should the Reds get Red Hot and make the playoffs that will of course put him deeper in the conversation. Provided of course he stays as he has been the last several games.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Gonna sweep the WLBs. Always nice to see the Cardinals go into the ground.

[Nicomo Cosca]

India needed this game in the worst way.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-14-2024, 09:58 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: India needed this game in the worst way.

For sure

3 outs away from a sweep of Cards and four in a row. Go Reds

[cinci4life]

Sweep complete!!! Just 1 game below .500 now.

[Goalpost]

Last year's number 1 pick, Rhett Lowder, is really pitching well at AA.  His last 5 starts... pitched 29 innings and given up 2 runs total.