Burrow, Tua, or Herbert?

[*SHRacerX*]

I would think the vast majority of those on here would say Burrow, and not because he was a 3rd strong QB at OSU. He has good size at 6'4" and decent mobility.

With Tua's relative lack of size and mobility, I think he will slide, especially since he may not be able to prepare/participate in the combine. I didn't want him in the first place due to his lack of size and mobility and he surely wouldn't be surrounded by talent here as he is in Alabama.

Herbert is a bit of a wildcard. He has good size at 6'6" and really good strength to shake a defender and toughness at 240 lbs. He also has really good mobility. I would always be leary of an Oregon QB, but they don't run the same offense as they did under Chip Kelly and he has four years of starters experience and really good completion % to go with very low turnover (INT) rate.

I bring up Herbert because even though I believe he will largely be viewed as the 2nd best QB in the draft behind Burrow (level of competition has a lot to do with it), I can't help but think that the larger, more mobile QB might be a better choice for the Bengals. Especially when you consider that the Dolphins who will likely be sitting a few picks back and will want Burrow. Maybe you could package that #1 pick for a couple other first round picks next year, and maybe an additional early pick in the 2021 draft.

I think the Fins will pay heavily for that top overall pick, and Herbert and a haul of picks would make this team better than Burrow and no extra picks. Thoughts? Another possibility is wait on the QB until the 2nd round and get Hurts and go with Chase Young in Rd 1.

[Au165]

We have a draft forum for this but I'll bite.

His injury history was a red flag before this latest injury and this won't help it. I think even if he comes back from this people are starting to get a Sam Bradford vibe from Tua, a great talent who will never be healthy. I would drop him way down my board because of the injuries, I also have some questions about his issues when playing top talent. He has never really risen to the occasion in big games outside of coming in his freshman year and it's concerning.

Some teams will like Herbert over Burrow. I personally am not that guy because I think his stats and big arm distract people from some really questionable decision making at times and issues coming off his first receiver. He went back last year mainly because of that second issue and honestly he may have made a little improvement, but it still seems like he wants to force it to his primary target more times than not (He gets away with it in the PAC 12). I think he could be a good QB, but I am just not as a high on him.

I like Burrow because of the route combinations he is throwing. A lot of people see completions, but it's important to understand what that completion is. He does well scanning the field and going to secondary options and his touch on balls in tight places is reminiscent of Brady (No he isn't Brady, this one aspect is similar). He has plus athleticism to move and escape the pocket, but he keeps his eyes down field to throw over running.

I am in the camp that actually wants Chase Young, however if I was handicapping them I go Burrow/Herbert then a huge drop off to Tua.

[corpjet]

Im still shell shocked from the last Oregon QB we drafted not to mention the other Duck QBs who went very high and didn't do much (Joey Harrington and Marcus Marriota)

Im fine with drafting a QB high (not a fan of Tua with his injuries) but we need O-Lineman to protect him

[Tomkat]

They're saying Tua has a possible career-ending injury, similar to the one that ended Bo Jackson's career. I'd stay away from him.

[Whatever]

(11-19-2019, 10:05 AM)Tomkat Wrote: They're saying Tua has a possible career-ending injury, similar to the one that ended Bo Jackson's career.  I'd stay away from him.

They said Tua is expected to make a full recovery after they did his surgery on Monday.  Bo's name keeps getting thrown around with it,but that was over 25 years ago.  If you go back 25 years from when Bo played, a torn ACL was a career ender.

That said, he's still not in consideration for a Top 5 pick.  Question is, do you now take a guy like Chase Young #1 and get Tua in the 2nd?

[mallorian69]

(11-19-2019, 10:43 AM)Whatever Wrote: They said Tua is expected to make a full recovery after they did his surgery on Monday.  Bo's name keeps getting thrown around with it,but that was over 25 years ago.  If you go back 25 years from when Bo played, a torn ACL was a career ender.

That said, he's still not in consideration for a Top 5 pick.  Question is, do you now take a guy like Chase Young #1 and get Tua in the 2nd?

Tua has had 3 surgeries in 2 years. Both ankles and now a hip. Even if he is able to play again chances are he won't be as mobile as he used to be and hes most likely knocked several years off of his career. Dude is a major injury risk. No way I'd take him before the 4th. And even then I would seriously hesitate. 

[*ochocincos*]

Had the injury not happened this past weekend, I would have said Tua. I like his athleticism and ceiling more than Burrow and he's had more than just one year as being elite.

Now, I'll go with Burrow. The only thing that makes me worry is that he wasn't a game changer last year but I do know that the offensive playcalling contributed to that. I'd be fine with Herbert too.

If Tua falls into the 2nd and shows great recovery by the draft, I'd even be ok with taking a guy like Andrew Thomas in Rd 1 and Tua in Rd 2.

[coachmcneil71]

All three qbs mentioned are talented guys with upside. Ts, they all also have certain drawbacks. I really don't have the time or patience to break this all down for folks, so I will make it very short. Tua- injury. Herbert- below average competition.

Burrow- I like Joe, he's an Ohio guy, but I dont want him or any of the QBs mentioned at #1!!! Now here I will try to explain to you thick heads why he may not be the "savior" that most of you seem to think he is. First and foremost is the system that he's playing in. The same system that Urbs Florida ran and dominated the SEC with during his time. Boy, that Tebow sure looked good....in that system! Auburn has remained relevant n the SEC by running the same type of system and they have had some luck. Auburn's man problem is their knack for not being able to find a QB that can get them there. Joe's lack of arm stregnth is going to be a problem at the next level. He's no Pat Mahomes!! Next, is our putrid offensive line. They will get him killed here.

Just to clarify; I like all three of the guys mentioned, but not at #1.

There are several very good pro style QBs n this draft besides the three that everyone keeps mentioning.

The Bengals have a chance to get the next Charles Haley and a starting QB in the first and second Rd of this draft. This is a no brainer!! If they do screw this up, as usual, I WILL be moving on after 40 plus years of everything Bengal.

[scorp1974]

Tua is an absolute no.

Burrow #1 or trade down a few spots for Herbert. Or even trade way down to find 3-4 starters.

[sandwedge]

None of the 3. Chase Young will go a lot further helping this team next season than a QB. I like Fields in 2021 though!

[Whatever]

(11-19-2019, 10:53 AM)mallorian69 Wrote: Tua has had 3 surgeries in 2 years. Both ankles and now a hip. Even if he is able to play again chances are he won't be as mobile as he used to be and hes most likely knocked several years off of his career. Dude is a major injury risk. No way I'd take him before the 4th. And even then I would seriously hesitate. 

He's still got an NFL arm, moves well in the pocket, and experience in a pro style offense.  He's worth more than a 4th even if you're just using him as a quality backup.  The guy was in the conversation for the 1st overall pick before this injury. It's not like he was a fringe first rounder.

[*rfaulk34*]

(11-19-2019, 11:41 AM)coachmcneil71 Wrote: All three qbs mentioned are talented guys with upside. Ts, they all also have certain drawbacks. I really don't have the time or patience to break this all down for folks, so I will make it very short. Tua- injury. Herbert- below average competition.

Burrow- I like Joe, he's an Ohio guy, but I dont want him or any of the QBs mentioned at #1!!! Now here I will try to explain to you thick heads why he may not be the "savior" that most of you seem to think he is. First and foremost is the system that he's playing in. The same system that Urbs Florida ran and dominated the SEC with during his time. Boy, that Tebow sure looked good....in that system! Auburn has remained relevant n the SEC by running the same type of system and they have had some luck. Auburn's man problem is their knack for not being able to find a QB that can get them there. Joe's lack of arm stregnth is going to be a problem at the next level. He's no Pat Mahomes!! Next, is our putrid offensive line. They will get him killed here.

Just to clarify; I like all three of the guys mentioned, but not at #1.

There are several very good pro style QBs n this draft besides the three that everyone keeps mentioning.

The Bengals have a chance to get the next Charles Haley and a starting QB in the first and second Rd of this draft. This is a no brainer!! If they do screw this up, as usual, I WILL be moving on after 40 plus years of everything Bengal.

You're falling into the same "system" argument that's flawed. 

Don't get me wrong, i'm not saying it's not a thing. What i'm saying is...forget about the system. Forget about past QBs. People need to get away from this thinking and start watching what a QB does, not where he is. 

Watch his performance late in games. 
Watch his completion percentage late in games. 
Watch his decision making late in games. 
Watch his performance and comp% when under pressure (and even moreso, under pressure...late in games).
Watch how he plays against tougher opponents. 
Watch where he's throwing the ball; open receivers or tight coverage. 
Watch his comp% on the move.
Watch how he moves to avoid pressure and if he panics and runs right out of the pocket at the first sign of pressure. 

There are so many things to watch with a QB that it's lazy and old school to just look at where they play and under what system. 

[cinci4life]

(11-19-2019, 12:03 PM)sandwedge Wrote: None of the 3. Chase Young will go a lot further helping this team next season than a QB. I like Fields in 2021 though!

This.

[Au165]

(11-19-2019, 02:44 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: You're falling into the same "system" argument that's flawed. 

Don't get me wrong, i'm not saying it's not a thing. What i'm saying is...forget about the system. Forget about past QBs. People need to get away from this thinking and start watching what a QB does, not where he is. 

Watch his performance late in games. 
Watch his completion percentage late in games. 
Watch his decision making late in games. 
Watch his performance and comp% when under pressure (and even moreso, under pressure...late in games).
Watch how he plays against tougher opponents. 
Watch where he's throwing the ball; open receivers or tight coverage. 
Watch his comp% on the move.
Watch how he moves to avoid pressure and if he panics and runs right out of the pocket at the first sign of pressure. 

There are so many things to watch with a QB that it's lazy and old school to just look at where they play and under what system. 

Yes and no. The reason system matters is because almost everything you say above is because the system contributes to it. The system dictates the decision making, systems like Oklahoma create easily defined reads because it so it eliminates a lot of "NFL level" decision making. It doesn't mean they can't do it, but it makes it tougher to tell. Completion percentage is 100% system related, late game or early game it doesn't really matter. Ability to throw under pressure is a QB assert so I agree there, same with ball placement which is far more important than if the ball was caught or not (Completion percentage).

Evaluating QB's is super complex, which is why teams miss so much. It's not just seeing what the outcome was, you have to understand the defense responsibilities and the play design to know what was talent and what was "scheme". You can see arm strength pretty easily and you can see mobility, but decision making is tougher and that is the most important piece.

With all that said....Burrow isn't a system QB lol.

[CJD]

Herbert has a little bit of Big Ben to him, if I'm honest.

I still think I'd prefer Burrow simply because he has all the tools, but Herbert would be an interesting second choice if we chose to trade down.

[Fan_in_Kettering]

Tua Tagovailoa has "Bengals" written all over him. He's injured, he plays in the SEC, and Mike Brown loves a big arm quarterback. The trouble is Mike's record of picking quarterbacks is horrendous because outside of Carson Palmer his picks* have been epic busts. We're watching the movie "Draft Day" and Mike Brown wants Bo Callahan.

*Andy Dalton was a Jay Gruden/Marvin Lewis pick.

[*rfaulk34*]

(11-19-2019, 03:26 PM)Au165 Wrote: Yes and no. The reason system matters is because almost everything you say above is because the system contributes to it. The system dictates the decision making, systems like Oklahoma create easily defined reads because it so it eliminates a lot of "NFL level" decision making. It doesn't mean they can't do it, but it makes it tougher to tell. Completion percentage is 100% system related, late game or early game it doesn't really matter. Ability to throw under pressure is a QB assert so I agree there, same with ball placement which is far more important than if the ball was caught or not (Completion percentage).

Evaluating QB's is super complex, which is why teams miss so much. It's not just seeing what the outcome was, you have to understand the defense responsibilities and the play design to know what was talent and what was "scheme". You can see arm strength pretty easily and you can see mobility, but decision making is tougher and that is the most important piece.

With all that said....Burrow isn't a system QB lol.

Yes, if the system creates open primary receivers consistently. The best system can't stop rushers from getting to the QB unless everything is snap, 3 steps, throw to the primary receiver. In the heat of games, QBs have to make decisions. Against better defenses, this is what makes a QBs decisions stand out. 

With that said, it's still easier to see system type plays. At some point, QBs are going to be under pressure or primary and secondary receivers are going to be covered and it's up to the QB to make plays or not. It's just having the time and patience to see enough to make a decision on a certain guy or not. 

I understand it's not all black or white in either scenario and it is possible for a guy to look good in college and like crap in the NFL or vice versa. 

To your point about completion percentage, that's true with shorter throws and sure, open deeper throws (most of the time). That's where coverage comes in. If a guy puts it on the money when his receiver is covered or he can throw guys open...i don't care about "system", he's a guy i'd want. 

Agree about Burrow.

[*rfaulk34*]

(11-19-2019, 03:26 PM)Au165 Wrote: Evaluating QB's is super complex, which is why teams miss so much. It's not just seeing what the outcome was, you have to understand the defense responsibilities and the play design to know what was talent and what was "scheme". You can see arm strength pretty easily and you can see mobility, but decision making is tougher and that is the most important piece.

[SunsetBengal]

(11-19-2019, 04:49 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Herbert has a little bit of Big Ben to him, if I'm honest.

I still think I'd prefer Burrow simply because he has all the tools, but Herbert would be an interesting second choice if we chose to trade down.

This, I also feel like both of these guys will develop into upper tier NFL QBs.  So, you might say that I would be satisfied with either, but Burrow is also my first choice.

As for Tua, he's a great player and athlete.  However, he makes the second "athletic" QB in a row to get "broken" in the Alabama offense.  And, quite frankly after McCarron, I kind of feel like Alabama QBs might be just a bit overrated.  That's not to say that Jalen Hurts won't become a fine, NFL QB, as he's had this season to be injury free and continue to develop his game.

[Interceptor]

Draft an entire O-Line this year, make them fight for the starting spot, take out lumps and then see if we can get at Trevor Lawrence in the next draft. Even if not, it would bring Mixon's game up.