Tempered Expectations with Burrow

[impactplaya]

(07-26-2020, 06:46 PM)Synric Wrote: Losing by one score is quite common in the NFL. How many were them fighting back within one score in garbage time? A few.

As for talent yes the Bengals have talent but so does most NFL teams just look at the AFC North. Two of the 4 teams in the North had top 10 defenses almost top 5. The Browns upgraded both sides of the ball in Free Agency and the Draft.

I think the Bengals arrow is pointing up but they still have to compete against 3 good teams in the North. 

You think the Browns are good? They haven't been good Belichek was their coach. They have talent on both sides
Of the ball. But it's still a new HC new OC new DC. 

The Ravens are the best team in AFC not named KC. but I've seen teams be locks for a division title and fall short 
They are one Lamar Jackson hit away from being average. 

The Steelers are banking on Rothlisberger has magic left that arm. Their defense is legit. But they can easily 
Be a 8 and 8 team.

The Bengals have enough talent to be sleepers. It's going to be a physical division.3 games could seperate 
1st and 4th 

[Luvnit2]

(07-26-2020, 04:19 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: WTF are you taking about? Show me where in this thread that I “shit on Dalton?”

As far as Luvinit’s preemptive “Burrow is not as good as Dalton if he doesn’t make the playoffs his rookie season” nonsense? Yeah, let’s just give him the benefit of the doubt here. It’s not like he’s the guy that said Dalton could very likely beat out Burrow in a QB competition...

His whole act lately is all about being upset that people are not going to hold a rookie QB (even a #1OA) to the same standards as a veteran QB. And that’s somehow really unfair to him. Weird logic, I know.

You are soiling your panties again. Read the post you jumped to criticize about a wrong date. It make you like  2 year old with the above whining.

Grow a pair and grow up.

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-26-2020, 06:24 PM)impactplaya Wrote: The Bengals lost 8 games by less than a TD in 2019.

Here is a pretty detailed look into the history of the average margin of victory in the NFL if you care to read it: https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/935htd/oc_how_has_the_nfls_margin_of_victory_changed

Recent history shows that...

---23% of NFL games are decided by 3 points or less.

---48% of NFL games are decided by 7 points or less.

---57% of NFL games are decided by 10 points or less.

I know you have an 8 point loss incuded in your "8 games" stat, but I don't have a number handy to reference that amount.  So for arguments and simplicities sake, let's just say that 50% of games are decided by 8 points or less.  I think this is a more than fair estimation, looking at the above.

We had 14 losses.  If you were to take the 50% figure we're using here, and then apply it to our losses, the number you'll obviously come up with is 7.  On average, an NFL team will lose 7 of those 14 games by 8 points or less.

So just how impressive is that 8 losses by a touchdown or less, knowing the above?  A:) Not much.  It's pretty much right on par with league averages.

People keep holding up this stat to show that we were closer than our record suggests.  That's simply not true.  You can go through any number of bad teams schedules, and more often than not, you'll find similar results.

There's a reason Vegas rarely sets a line above 7.  Hell, it's somewhat uncommon to see the lines set beyond 4.5.  It's becomes it's the nature of the sport, games are usually pretty close. If they set a big line they open themselves up to heavy bets on one side and the potential to get absolutely hammered by payouts.

[Wes Mantooth]

Fwiw, I just looked up Arizona to see what their margin of defeat looked like in some of the losses, just to quickly test the idea that our number is not unique.

Arizona went 5-10-1. 5 of their 10 losses (50%) came by a touchdown or less. If you include their tie, that number becomes 6 games where they didn't get a win and the game was decided by a touchdown or less.

[Wes Mantooth]

Detroit went 3-11-1 last season.

They had 9 games that were losses (and a tie) that were decided by a touchdown or less.

[*Synric*]

(07-26-2020, 07:29 PM)impactplaya Wrote: You think the Browns are good? They haven't been good Belichek was their coach. They have talent on both sides
Of the ball. But it's still a new HC new OC new DC. 

The Ravens are the best team in AFC not named KC. but I've seen teams be locks for a division title and fall short 
They are one Lamar Jackson hit away from being average. 

The Steelers are banking on Rothlisberger has magic left that arm. Their defense is legit. But they can easily 
Be a 8 and 8 team.

The Bengals have enough talent to be sleepers. It's going to be a physical division.3 games could seperate 
1st and 4th 

If you right off the Browns due to their history you might as well do the same for the Bengals especially because of recent history aka 4 losing seasons in a row coming off being the worst team in the division and the league.

...but I'm let's not. The Browns have an extremely talented roster and one could argue as talented as any in the AFC North. The Ravens and Steelers have top NFL defenses. Ravens are one of the top teams in the NFL praying for an injury wont stop them (RG3 could also run that offense not at the level of Jackson but enough to win games.) The Steelers will be getting back a future HoF QB and they added receiving threats to help. 


I can easily argue the Bengals have the least talented roster in the division. Don't get me wrong they have the talent to surprise but expecting a playoff appearance competing in the AFC North is a pipe dream.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(07-26-2020, 07:46 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: You are soiling your panties again. Read the post you jumped to criticize about a wrong date. It make you like  2 year old with the above whining.

Grow a pair and grow up.

All I did was make a simple correction to your post. That makes me a “two year old?”

You’d think someone with thousands of posts on a Bengals MB would know what year our last QB came into the league...

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(07-24-2020, 10:54 PM)WestCoastBengalsFan Wrote: I've seen a ton of hype around Burrow coming in and being the savior for the Bengals. He has been extremely impressive, especially last year and I do strongly believe he'll be a great player for the Bengals for many years to come. He has been a leader (already), he has been a winner (already), and he has earned the respect of teammates (already). He's a first pick overall and coming off a championship and expectations  are very high as they should be. This is all very good news for a franchise starving for a winner and someone who can take control and be a great leader.

All that said, he is a rookie, he will make rookie mistakes, he will inevitable make some bad decisions. No matter what all the NFL talking heads, vocal fans, and others are saying during the offseason at the end of the day the guy is still a rookie and a human being. All the hype of him coming out and swinging his 10-inch hog around and just dominating the league right away is going to have some folks up in arms when it doesn't happen every game. Frankly I'm hoping all these same people who are thinking he's the second-coming of Christ are patient enough to realize it's going to take some time for him to adjust to NFL and for the team to gel in general. With Covid this year and all the lack of normal interaction, no preseason games, etc. it's going to take time. Patience is key and I hope the hype doesn't get to him, he seems like a guy who won't let that happen but I don't know if he has enough history with "losing" to have a good way to handle it when it inevitably happens. Time will tell.

I truly hope I'm wrong and hope he comes in and just crushes everything, but some folks just need to realize that might not be the case right off the bat. Patience my friends...patience.

Of course I agree, Burrow is a rookie, it will take time. As it does with every rookie. I just think if there is a rookie QB that 
could come in and get up to speed it is Burrow. Will take a bit but I expect this guy to be good even in his rookie season.

I don't expect him to suck all year, this is all I am saying. This guy is special.

[fredtoast]

(07-26-2020, 08:08 PM)Synric Wrote: If you right off the Browns due to their history you might as well do the same for the Bengals especially because of recent history aka 4 losing seasons in a row coming off being the worst team in the division and the league.

I see a big difference between the Bengals sucking last year with a horrible roster and the Browns winning 6 games with a roster that sportsbooks were placing n the top 10 odds to win the Super Bowl.

That being said, they still have a talented roster and anything can happen.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(07-29-2020, 01:23 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I see a big difference between the Bengals sucking last year with a horrible roster and the Browns winning 6 games with a roster that sportsbooks were placing n the top 10 odds to win the Super Bowl.

That being said, they still have a talented roster and anything can happen.

I agree and lets not forget who's horrible roster that was....