Best WR in franchise history - Analysis

[*jason*]

(06-19-2022, 10:18 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: I have been working on gathering a wide variety of data for some small analytical projects I have been working on this off-season. So far, I have posted the results of two of these analyses to this board, linked here and here. Today, we are going to be doing the same exact thing, but we are looking at wide receivers. We are going to talk about who has had the best individual season in franchise history, and who is the best career wide receiver in franchise history. There is mathematical backing behind this, but it is all for fun - this isn't meant to END ALL ARGUMENTS (not that I could do that anyway) but I will say that the results aren't far off of what I was expecting. Which, is nice. 

Let's just begin by saying this took FOREVER. Guys, I have been working on this for weeks. I have essentially built a workbook of all NFL receiving statistics going back to 1968. That aggregation and organization took long enough by itself. Then, when I finally finished that, I had to do all of my calculations. I did not want to do that by hand, so I chose not to. I wrote a program to go through the Excel workbook and calculate all of the data for me. The reason being is that I wanted to filter for only WR's only, so going page-by-page, filtering and inserting the formulas was just too tedious. Now, in the end, automating that process may have taken me just as long as it would have by hand due to little bugs and some unfamiliarity with the library I used, but...

Alright, you don't give a shit about any of that. Let's get to the list. Just like before, I will post some methodology at the bottom for those interested. Let's jump into looking at who had the best individual season in franchise history. There are three metrics we are looking at to define this; receptions, yards and touchdowns. Pretty simple. We have to keep it simple because older NFL data doesn't track some of the metrics we are used to (targets, for example). With that explained, the best individual season in franchise history goes to...

Ja'Marr Chase. 

That's for real, folks. Chase came in as a rookie and had the best season a wide receiver has ever had in franchise history. With a statline of 81 catches for 1455 yards and 13 TDs, he razzled and dazzled to the top. This time last year, arguments were raging about Sewell vs. Chase, whether it was the right pick or not and if it isn't apparent by now, Chase was the right pick (dammit Goose, here we go again). A lethal offensive weapon, he already has the makings of a top five WR after his rookie year, and it isn't out of the realm of possibility that he could be challenging for the top spot in just a couple of seasons time. Here is a look at the top 10 seasons in franchise history, as defined by my analysis.

1. Ja'Marr Chase
2. Carl Pickens - 1995
3. Carl Pickens - 1996
4. A.J. Green - 2013
5. Chad Johnson - 2003
6. Chad Johnson - 2005
7. A.J. Green - 2012
8. T.J. Houshmandzadeh - 2007
9. Isaac Curtis - 1973
10. Cris Collinsworth - 1986
    

It feels like Chad is a little underrepresented here, but don't worry, he comes in at 11th and 13th as well. He barely missed out on a third top 10 season. Carl Pickens is a fun one to look at, as he had a couple of seasons of domination in the mid-90s. In 1995, Carl logged 99 catches for 1,234 yards and 17 TDs. He followed that up in 1996 by notching another 1,000 yard season and an additional 12 TDs. Personally, I am happy to see Housh on here. He wasn't a very flashy player, but I remember him fondly from the mid-2000's and he was fantastic in 2007. Now, onto the best career receivers here, and this may have some controversial results...

Best Overall Wide Receiver - Career

1. Chad Johnson
2. Cris Collinsworth
3. A.J. Green
4. Tyler Boyd
5. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
6. Carl Pickens
7. Eddie Brown
8. Isaac Curtis
9. Marvin Jones
10. Brandon LaFell
    

....yeah? Collinsworth is the 2nd best receiver in franchise history? Over Green? And Pickens? Curtis? Apparently so, yes. At least with this methodology. Collinsworth didn't have any real eye popping seasons, but he was just consistently good. For most of his career, if he was healthy, he was going to get you right around 1,000 yards and between five and eight touchdowns. Even for the time period, this wasn't crazy, but the consistency was good enough to land him at the #2 spot. Pickens had a fantastic mid-career but disappointing beginning and end. Here is a crazy fact for you; Carl Pickens won offensive rookie of the year in 1992 on 26 catches for 326 yards and ONE touchdown. 


I envy no one that had to rank these guys that year. 

Methodology - So, this part will be fairly short, I think. This is using Z-Score, just like the other two were. We are wanting to era adjust and I think this is one of the best methods of doing so. For those who don't remember, Z-Score is a figure we calculate in order to figure out how much better or worse a particular value is from the average of a population. You might remember that earlier in the post, I said we are using receptions, yards, and TDs. So, for each season, I calculated the average for each of those three categories and then calculated the standard deviation. From there, we can use the players metrics from that season to figure out how they compared to the rest of the league during that time. Z-Score tells you how many standard deviations a value is from the average. 

A Z-Score of 1 is pretty good. Not elite, but pretty good. A Z-Score of 2 is elite category. This player is dominating if they are putting up numbers like this. A Z-Score of 3 is ridiculous, and not only the best in any given year but likely one of the best seasons, ever. Anything higher than that would be historic and unprecedented. For example, Randy Moss had a touchdown Z-Score of 4.55 in 2007 when he set the record. Jerry Rice had a touchdown Z-Score of 5.23 in 1987, when he scored 22 touchdowns. So, yeah, ridiculous seasons.

How I ended up ranking these players was by weighting each of the three categories. There is no real mathematical backing behind the weights, just trying to line up what I thought fit right. The weights, in order from heaviest to lightest go...

1. Touchdowns
2. Yards
3. Receptions
   

Using the weight figures, I was able to calculate a rating. I originally just added them all up, but it treated them all the same. Is a normal reception worth as much as a TD? No, I don't think so, not normally. I didn't want to represent it that way, either. I am sure my weights could be improved, but this will do for now. 

And that's it! Happy to answer questions or provide more info if requested. Thanks for reading. 

Ja'Marr is gonna challenging for the top spot in the league this year. Adams will fall off a bit with Carr... I think Chase's main competition this season will be his old college teammate in Minnesota.

Edit... Annnd I totally forgot about Kupp. He'll be right up there too.