JT Tuimoloau

[*ochocincos*]

(02-26-2025, 12:21 PM)CJD Wrote: Joe Goodberry pulled up a chart in one of his breakdown videos that I found very interesting. It was a chart that showed the last several years of edge prospects (since 2016) charted on "pass rush win rate" vs "true pass rush set percentage."

I found the original tweet, below.

Abdul Carter might have some company pic.twitter.com/tzPg6S7D94

— Football Insights ? (@fball_insights) February 14, 2025

I am not 100% sure if "true pass rush sets" means the percentage of plays in which they were true pass rush sets, or if that is the true pass rush win rate and they just abbreviated the axis title.

Regardless, this chart seems to be a pretty good representation of which prospects succeeded vs which prospects struggled in the NFL.
For example, the bottom left quadrant holds a lot of notable draft busts/underwhelming, highly drafted players like Solomon Thomas, Clelin Ferrell, Myles Murphy (for the time being), K'Lavon Chaisson, Marcus Davenport, Tyree Wilson, Joe Tryon, Lukas Van Ness, Takk McKinley, Payton Turner, and, at least relative to his draft position, Travon Walker.

There are a few players in that quadrant that had decent/good careers, like Greg Rousseau, Bradley Chubb, Brian Burns and Kwity Paye, but they are the outliers and, even still, most of the "star pass rushers" in the NFL today are in the upper right quadrant. You got Nick Bosa, Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett, Jared Verse, Aiden Hutchinson, and Chop Robinson all up there. There are obviously some whiffs up there too like Chase Young (who isn't a bust, but just didn't live up to a #2 OA pick), and LJ Collier who was just a straight bust, but the overall average quality of pass rusher in the top right quadrant is much higher than those in the bottom left quadrant.

And JT Tuimoloau is right smack dab in the middle of that bottom left quadrant.

Shemar Stewart, Mykel Williams, Kyle Kennard and Landon Jackson are all down there too. And watching these players in game kind of holds up with this general assessment.

My edge targets in the first round are James Pearce Jr, Mike Green and Nic Scourton. My edge targets in the 2nd/3rd round are Princely Umanmielen and Jack Sawyer. I'd be open to Donovan Ezeiruaku in the 2nd/3rd round because he's in the top right section of that bottom left quadrant.

But I largely want to avoid players like JT Tuimoloau, Shemar Stewart, Mykel Williams, Kyle Kennard and Landon Jackson entirely unless they just plummet into day 3.

Indeed.

If the rumored character concerns can be disspelled for Pearce, he's a guy I would like.
If it's only because of the arrest from a traffic stop back in Dec 2023 that was dropped a couple weeks later, that doesn't seem like a big enough character concern (to me).
Pearce I can see as a future replacement for Hendrickson if Hendrickson departs in a year or two.

I also like Scourton, but more as a replacement for Hubbard.

I've been more against the likes of Shemar Stewart and Mykel Williams primarily because I see them as less refined and will need to rely on a good system/coaches to get them to reach their ceiling, which I don't trust the Bengals to be able to do (yet).