Dalton vs. Bortles article

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(01-15-2018, 12:26 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The "rest of the country" does not agree with you.  "Experts" disagree on how good Dalton is.  Remember in 2015 when they were talking about him as an MVP candidate?  

Guess you were probably hiding in a hole with Mully back then.

*Mullsy* :andy:

[*Nately120*]

(01-15-2018, 01:05 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: As we so often debate, what does he have around him?  Great RB, WR, TE, and offensive line and perhaps the best defense in the NFL?  And, this is, what, his third or fourth year?  They weren't that enamored with him as there was a moment early this year I thought that they were going to go with Chad Henne.  Or at least they gave Henne the start in a preseason game.

I am just saying, if you surround an athletic guy like Driscoll with that kind of talent and give him four years?  Well, Driscoll sure seemed to have a ton of success in college and we saw what he did with a very average talented Bengal squad in the preseason due to his athleticism.

I am not a Bortles hater (Chris Simms) but I just think he has probably the best situation of any QB in the NFL right now as far as the team around him.  

Oy, the Jaguars have their first winning season in a decade and we're already talking about how any of our QBs would be knocking on the door of a SB if he had such a pristine situation.  Oof, can't say I saw this coming.

Anyways, yes, Bortles is the weak link there but the team is 10-0 this year when he doesn't turn it over and he went into Pittsburgh and did what he had to do to win.  Maybe every FA QB and half of the ones who could be traded with be sending their resumes to Jacksonville this off-season. The template to beat the Jaguars is simple...when Bortles has a lead he's really good and when he's behind he's really bad. I thought the Steelers would score and Bortles would blow it, but he didn't. Hats off to the guy for not falling into the trap 99% of people knew he'd fall into.

And as much as we like to point out Bortles and Trent Dilfer as proof that an NFL team can win with even the crappiest QB, both of those guys have better post-season stats than any QB we've had in the Mike Brown era.  If we can't even play like Dilfer, why do we keep assuming we would stroll right to the promised land if everything else were in place?

EDIT: Additional thought, looking at the final 4 NFL teams and seeing the greatest QB of all time and 3 guys who weren't even considered starters this year might make it even clearer why players aren't always thrilled to play for this franchise. Bort Bortles, Case Keenum, Nick Foles...this year they all notched more playoff wins than our franchise has since the Super Nintendo was invented. Astounding.

[The Caped Crusader]

(01-15-2018, 01:22 PM)Nately120 Wrote: EDIT: Additional thought, looking at the final 4 NFL teams and seeing the greatest QB of all time and 3 guys who weren't even considered starters this year might make it even clearer why players aren't always thrilled to play for this franchise.  Bort Bortles, Case Keenum, Nick Foles...this year they all notched more playoff wins than our franchise has since the Super Nintendo was invented.  Astounding.

This final paragraph speaks volumes about ownership, rather than the made up rivalry of two players. It's incredibly sad that we still can't wrap our heads around what it takes to WIN in this league. So much about what Jacksonville, LA and Philadelphia have done are identical. Here we are, jumping in puddles.

[J24]

(01-15-2018, 12:50 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I hear ya.  It seems like every year there is one or two average or pretty good but not elite QBs who have that one elite year.  2015 was an interesting year because Dalton and Palmer were both playing elite football and yet we had the guys for a combined 14 years and while we've had some frustrating injuries during promising stretches, we've won nothing.

That's what those one year pockets of greatness get you.  Every year there is one new face in the final 4 teams and/or losing the Super Bowl that is there because he had an elite year that he probably can't repeat.

This year it could be Case Keenum (we shall see what happens), before it was Matt Ryan, before that Dalton/Palmer/Newton, before that Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, and so on and so forth.  Those are mostly good QBs over the long-term career, but they had that one year window where they came up short against teams that tend to get it done on a regular basis.  Toss the magical 2006 Bears' season with Rex Grossman trying to not botch what the defense and Hester were doing coming up short against Manning and the Colts in there, as well.

He had a good year in 2013 and he had a good season last year. Not sure you can say 2015 is that much of an outliner. In fact I would say this  year was more of an outliner then 2015.

[*bfine32*]

(01-15-2018, 06:06 PM)Jakeypoo Wrote: He had a good year in 2013 and he had a good season last year. Not sure you can say 2015 is that much of an outliner. In fact I would say this  year was more of an outliner then 2015.

Let's try a practical exercise.

Pick the outlier (different from the rest) in the string of numbers:

80.4
87.4
83.5
88.8
106.2
86.6
91.8

Only one of those numbers would fall more than 2 standard deviations outside of the bell curve.  

[*Nately120*]

(01-15-2018, 06:17 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Let's try a practical exercise.

Pick the outlier (different from the rest) in the string of numbers:

80.4
87.4
83.5
88.8
106.2
86.6
91.8

Only one of those numbers would fall more than 2 standard deviations outside of the bell curve.  

Yup, and the average is 89.24 and the median is 87.4.  Dalton hain't no bum, but his 2015 is the very definition of OUTLIER.

[J24]

(01-15-2018, 06:17 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Let's try a practical exercise.

Pick the outlier (different from the rest) in the string of numbers:

80.4
87.4
83.5
88.8
106.2
86.6
91.8

Only one of those numbers would fall more than 2 standard deviations outside of the bell curve.  

Let's look at other measures like QB completion, yards per attempt, yards per season, and he'll even QBR.  As well not just one stat.

[*bfine32*]

(01-15-2018, 07:55 PM)Jakeypoo Wrote: Let's look at other measures like QB completion, yards per attempt, yards per season, and he'll even QBR.  As well not just one stat.

You do realize that passer rating takes all that into consideration, don't you. Well not the QBR but let's look at that:

40.9
52.3
72.5
49.0
54.8
47.3

Which number is the outlier in that string of numbers? 

[Bronxbengal]

(01-14-2018, 10:39 PM)t3r3e3 Wrote: 2015 Playoff? You do realize that was AJ McCarron that put the Bengals ahead with a late 4th quarter TD, don’t you? Andy’s last two Playoff games were the dumpster fire against the Chargers, and the bad game (with no weapons) against the Colts.

I forgot about that but my point was made. The team lost the game not the QB.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

Any day Merv will get another QB, and we will wen teh Soupewr Bowz!

[J24]

(01-15-2018, 08:05 PM)bfine32 Wrote: You do realize that passer rating takes all that into consideration, don't you. Well not the QBR but let's look at that:

40.9
52.3
72.5
49.0
54.8
47.3

Which number is the outlier in that string of numbers? 

I would say the 40.9 and the 72.5 are both outliers .

[fredtoast]

(01-15-2018, 12:37 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Don't you mean was one year out of a 7 year career? I think National pundits are pretty much in accord with how good Andy Dalton is and that's middle of the road. It is why we get the endless "National media disrespecting Andy" threads when they rank him as an average QB, 

I only complain when someone says he is below average.

Or when they say he has to be benched because he is "only average".

If you look at the polls here on this board you will see that almost no one claims Dalton is "elite"

[fredtoast]

(01-15-2018, 06:17 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Let's try a practical exercise.

Pick the outlier (different from the rest) in the string of numbers:

80.4
87.4
83.5
88.8
106.2
86.6
91.8

Only one of those numbers would fall more than 2 standard deviations outside of the bell curve.  

Agree that 2015 is an outlier.  But it destroys the argument that Dalton has a "low ceiling". 

Now look at Bortles career numbers

69.5
88.2
78.8
84.7

In half of his seasons Bortles posted a passer rating worse than Dalton's career low from his rookie year, and Bortles career high season is lower than almost half of Dalton's seasons (3 of 7).

So why is this even a discussion?

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(01-15-2018, 01:21 PM)WychesWarrior Wrote: *Mullsy* :andy:

Mulligan, Umukubas, any other weirdos?

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(01-16-2018, 12:37 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Mulligan, Umukubas, any other weirdos?

You know what's strange?  I actually saw him on the team's Facebook page.  Kubas is the dude's last name!  All this time......I thought he was a bot.....lol. The speech pattern was identical. I think he was French-Canadian, and using a translator.

Man, Mullsy was the weirdest......he'd be all over Andy Dalton, but if you said one thing bad about Mike Brown, he'd go berserk.  It was like he was family (hell, may have been).  When it came to Son of Paul, he was a bigger homer than DennyG.  His defense of MB put the Mediocre Merv Militia to shame.  I had a ball painting him into corners over Mike Brown.  He was easy.....lol.

Seems like that dude that almost shut this board down during its infancy was one of those cats too, can't remember his name now.

[*Nately120*]

(01-16-2018, 12:25 PM)fredtoast Wrote: So why is this even a discussion?

I'm of the mindset that the real discussion is why is a team that was 3-13 last year, has had a single winning season in the past 10 years, and is worse than ours at the most important position managed to do the following this year:

beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, twice
win 2+ playoff games
make it to the AFC Championship game (or more, depending on how it goes)

while we managed to go 7-9.  Geez, where did we go wrong?

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(01-16-2018, 12:55 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I'm of the mindset that the real discussion is why is a team that was 3-13 last year, has had a single winning season in the past 10 years, and is worse than ours at the most important position managed to do the following this year:

beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, twice
win 2+ playoff games
make it to the AFC Championship game (or more, depending on how it goes)

while we managed to go 7-9.  Geez, where did we go wrong?

Where do you start?

[sandwedge]

(01-16-2018, 12:55 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I'm of the mindset that the real discussion is why is a team that was 3-13 last year, has had a single winning season in the past 10 years, and is worse than ours at the most important position managed to do the following this year:

beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, twice
win 2+ playoff games
make it to the AFC Championship game (or more, depending on how it goes)

while we managed to go 7-9.  Geez, where did we go wrong?

I'm just going to guess here, but I say:
1) A better O-line
2) The fear of a running game
3) Offense that isn't predictable
4) A MUCH more aggressive defense
5) A team who's only goal every season, isn't to beat the Steelers

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(01-16-2018, 12:43 PM)WychesWarrior Wrote: You know what's strange?  I actually saw him on the team's Facebook page.  Kubas is the dude's last name!  All this time......I thought he was a bot.....lol. The speech pattern was identical. I think he was French-Canadian, and using a translator.

Man, Mullsy was the weirdest......he'd be all over Andy Dalton, but if you said one thing bad about Mike Brown, he'd go berserk.  It was like he was family (hell, may have been).  When it came to Son of Paul, he was a bigger homer than DennyG.  His defense of MB put the Mediocre Merv Militia to shame.  I had a ball painting him into corners over Mike Brown.  He was easy.....lol.

Seems like that dude that almost shut this board down during its infancy was one of those cats too, can't remember his name now.

Oh wow, that would make SO much sense and yes, Umukubas WAS French-Canadian.

The infancy guy I can't remember, as I didn't get super active on these boards until around the season started (not sure why), but yeah, Mulligan was a constant pest.

I always dreaded seeing his name in Gold, with his stupid non-sig, sig (though I can't remember what it was at this time lol).

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(01-16-2018, 01:05 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Oh wow, that would make SO much sense and yes, Umukubas WAS French-Canadian.

The infancy guy I can't remember, as I didn't get super active on these boards until around the season started (not sure why), but yeah, Mulligan was a constant pest.

I always dreaded seeing his name in Gold, with his stupid non-sig, sig (though I can't remember what it was at this time lol).

I *think* it was WhoDeyWho.....or something along those lines.  He was one of the original admins here with Bengalholic.  He owned the original domain name, IIRC, got mad, took his ball and went home.  Holic had to start over from scratch.

Yeah, when mullsy showed up, objectivity and rational thought went out the window....but he was fun to toy with when you were bored.