Are The Steelers Good or Just Lucky?

[BFritz21]

(02-11-2018, 10:34 PM)GMDino Wrote:

That was a 14 point swing and the Cardinals only lost by 4 with the Steelers scoring in the final minute to win.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to put those facts together and realize that the Steelers were outplayed the majority of the game.

(02-11-2018, 10:49 PM)StrictlyBiz Wrote: You're stoned. They spent the vast majority of that game with a greater than 75% chance of winning. 

Probability of winning would have been drastically different in the second half if the interception hadn't happened.

Let's say that they don't come out in the second half with even more confidence and playing even more fired up and it goes the same way, just with different scores, then, at worst, the probability of winning is split down the middle, with the Cardinals actually having most likely a better chance because they'd be winning the most of the second half.

[BmorePat87]

(02-12-2018, 12:54 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: That was a 14 point swing and the Cardinals only lost by 4 with the Steelers scoring in the final minute to win.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to put those facts together and realize that the Steelers were outplayed the majority of the game.

The Cardinals held a lead in that game for a whole 2 minutes and 2 seconds in the late 4th quarter. It doesn't take a ditch digger to put those facts together and realize that the Steelers outplayed the Cardinals the majority of the game. 

[JS-Steelerfan]

(02-11-2018, 10:09 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: You also have to think about the momentum and the way the play calling would have changed.

The Steelers got outplayed that game and that was a 14 point swing, which they still ended up only winning by 4.

Except for that one play, the Steelers were beaten in that game and had no business winning.

You're right in that it wouldn't have gone the same way, but the Cardinals were the better team that day except for that one play.

It goes back to being lucky, which was my point all-along.

You are hopelessly swayed by your bias.  If the exact same scenario happened AGAINST the Steelers, you’d be saying how gritty the winning team was to have made the plays that they needed to win.  Because it's the Steelers, you try extra hard to portray their wins in a poor light in a way that you don't do with any other team.  

Case in point: The Patriots desperately needed a game-deciding interception against the Seahawks, and you say they outplayed Seattle in that Super Bowl.  The Steelers get a momentum-turning interception against the Cardinals (in a situation VERY similar to Butler’s INT) and you say they’re ‘lucky’.

[6andcounting]

(02-11-2018, 10:49 PM)StrictlyBiz Wrote: You're stoned. They spent the vast majority of that game with a greater than 75% chance of winning. 

Are these charts a regular thing on PFR? If so, the Bengals are going to have so many moral victories this year.

"We made it into the 4th quarter with a 50% chance of winning; we were so tough. Respect us!!!!!"

[GMDino]

(02-12-2018, 12:54 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: That was a 14 point swing and the Cardinals only lost by 4 with the Steelers scoring in the final minute to win.

Yep. Steelers lead...Steelers win.

(02-12-2018, 12:54 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: It doesn't take a rocket scientist to put those facts together and realize that the Steelers were outplayed the majority of the game.

"outplayed"

Maybe we could consult a rocket scientist anyway....

(02-12-2018, 12:54 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: Probability of winning would have been drastically different in the second half if the interception hadn't happened.

Let's say that they don't come out in the second half with even more confidence and playing even more fired up and it goes the same way, just with different scores, then, at worst, the probability of winning is split down the middle, with the Cardinals actually having most likely a better chance because they'd be winning the most of the second half.

Let's say Warner's arm fell off. Let's say the entire Cardinals' defense laid down and took a nap. Let's say Fitzgerald is really a robot.

All things that COULD have happened...but did not.

Fevered fantasies of a Bengals fan.

[JS-Steelerfan]

Here’s the thing Brad: if you put ANY team’s championship journey under a microscope the way you’ve done here, you are bound to find a few moments that, if they had gone the other way, might have changed things. There’s so much parity today that a team with a career backup can beat the GOAT under the right circumstances. In other words, there’s a fine line between winning and losing theses days. So, to say that one team is lucky while another (which had it’s own game-turning moments) is somehow more deserving than the other is nothing more than sheer fanboy bias.

[Luvnit2]

(02-12-2018, 10:47 AM)JS-Steelerfan Wrote: Here’s the thing Brad: if you put ANY team’s championship journey under a microscope the way you’ve done here, you are bound to find a few moments that, if they had gone the other way, might have changed things.  There’s so much parity today that a team with a career backup can beat the GOAT under the right circumstances.  In other words, there’s a fine line between winning and losing theses days.  So, to say that one team is lucky while another (which had it’s own game-turning moments) is somehow more deserving than the other is nothing more than sheer fanboy bias.

I have to agree and almost all teams need some good luck along the way to win it all. It may be in the playoffs or championship game or I remember a simple dump off pass to Ray Rice years ago on 4th and forever he somehow turned into a 1st down propelling the Ravens to the playoffs. Flacco then gets hot in the playoffs and they win it all. Remove that play and Ravens were sitting home instead of raising the Lombardi.

[GMDino]

(02-12-2018, 10:47 AM)JS-Steelerfan Wrote: Here’s the thing Brad: if you put ANY team’s championship journey under a microscope the way you’ve done here, you are bound to find a few moments that, if they had gone the other way, might have changed things.  There’s so much parity today that a team with a career backup can beat the GOAT under the right circumstances.  In other words, there’s a fine line between winning and losing theses days.  So, to say that one team is lucky while another (which had it’s own game-turning moments) is somehow more deserving than the other is nothing more than sheer fanboy bias.

(02-12-2018, 10:59 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I have to agree and almost all teams need some good luck along the way to win it all. It may be in the playoffs or championship game or I remember a simple dump off pass to Ray Rice years ago on 4th and forever he somehow turned into a 1st down propelling the Ravens to the playoffs. Flacco then gets hot in the playoffs and they win it all. Remove that play and Ravens were sitting home instead of raising the Lombardi.

And look at the Patriots.

This season they had more scoring drives aided by a penalty that any other team...and more first downs by penalty than other team.

So even when they made mistakes they got more chances to correct them.

That alone gives a team a better chance of winning.  Especially when they are a really good team that makes few mistakes anyway.

Just three extra chances a game to try again when you failed can be huge in a single NFL game.

[JS-Steelerfan]

(02-12-2018, 11:37 AM)GMDino Wrote: And look at the Patriots.

This season they had more scoring drives aided by a penalty that any other team...and more first downs by penalty than other team.

So even when they made mistakes they got more chances to correct them.

That alone gives a team a better chance of winning.  Especially when they are a really good team that makes few mistakes anyway.

Just three extra chances a game to try again when you failed can be huge in a single NFL game.

Yep.  The point is that no championship team depends solely on being lucky or on being good.  Championship teams usually need to be both.

[bengalguy71]

This thread reminds me of that ole saying, "If 'ifs and ands' were pots and pans, the world would be a kitchen"!

This much I do know about the Steelers; with the talent they have, barring injuries, and if they had no-nonsense coach that would lay the law down to the prima donnas, they should be in the AFC Championship game, most every year.

[ballsofsteel]

(02-12-2018, 10:59 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I have to agree and almost all teams need some good luck along the way to win it all. It may be in the playoffs or championship game or I remember a simple dump off pass to Ray Rice years ago on 4th and forever he somehow turned into a 1st down propelling the Ravens to the playoffs. Flacco then gets hot in the playoffs and they win it all. Remove that play and Ravens were sitting home instead of raising the Lombardi.

I remember that play. It was fourth and 29, Rice got 30.

[Tama]

(02-12-2018, 03:03 PM)bengalguy71 Wrote: This thread reminds me of that ole saying, "If 'ifs and ands' were pots and pans, the world would be a kitchen"!

This much I do know about the Steelers; with the talent they have, barring injuries, and if they had no-nonsense coach that would lay the law down to the prima donnas, they should be in the AFC Championship game, most every year.

You're giving the defense way too much credit.

[Luvnit2]

(02-12-2018, 06:31 PM)ballsofsteel Wrote: I remember that play. It was fourth and 29, Rice got 30.

I knew it was a long way and he got pressure and nowhere else to go so threw it to Rice in the backfield. Yes, great play by Ray Rice, but also very lucky.

[Captain Obvious]

(02-10-2018, 10:44 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: In '05, the Steelers take out Palmer on the opening play of the playoff game, we only get 3, and then everyone knows what happened at halftime and everything just fell apart.

When they beat the Cardinals in the Super Bowl, the Cardinals were about to go up 14-10 at the end of the first half, which they'd also get the ball back at the start of the second half, but Warner is stupid and throws a slant-route to the center of the field inside the 3 (can you be stupider?), it gets intercepted and returned for a touchdown.

Steelers go up 17-7 instead of down 10-14.

Even so, they still need to score a touchdown in the final minute to win by 4.

So, my question is, are the Steelers really a great franchise or just lucky?

They're both good and lucky. Any team that wins the Super Bowl is also lucky and good. End of discussion.

[bengalguy71]

(02-12-2018, 06:36 PM)Tama Wrote: You're giving the defense way too much credit.

Subpar coaching.

[BFritz21]

(02-12-2018, 08:13 PM)Captain Obvious Wrote: They're both good and lucky. Any team that wins the Super Bowl is also lucky and good. End of discussion.

I disagree that not every team gets lucky, and, even if they do, not to the level that the Steelers got lucky.

[StrictlyBiz]

(02-12-2018, 12:54 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: Probability of winning would have been drastically different in the second half if the interception hadn't happened.

Let's say that they don't come out in the second half with even more confidence and playing even more fired up and it goes the same way, just with different scores, then, at worst, the probability of winning is split down the middle, with the Cardinals actually having most likely a better chance because they'd be winning the most of the second half.

How the hell can you out play someone but almost never have more than a 25% chance of winning? How can it be a game that they had no business winning, but had a greater than 95% chance of winning for more than one quarter in the second half?

Logic isn't your strong suit, is it? 

[StrictlyBiz]

(02-12-2018, 09:33 AM)6andcounting Wrote: Are these charts a regular thing on PFR? If so, the Bengals are going to have so many moral victories this year.

"We made it into the 4th quarter with a 50% chance of winning; we were so tough. Respect us!!!!!"

Lol, no. I checked the '16 playoff game and it wasn't there. I'd really like to know the odds of the Bengals winning after the Landry Jones int. Had to be 99.99%

[StrictlyBiz]

(02-12-2018, 03:03 PM)bengalguy71 Wrote: This thread reminds me of that ole saying, "If 'ifs and ands' were pots and pans, the world would be a kitchen"!

This much I do know about the Steelers; with the talent they have, barring injuries, and if they had no-nonsense coach that would lay the law down to the prima donnas, they should be in the AFC Championship game, most every year.

You'd find A LOT of Steeler fans would agree with this. BB is their coach and they're more dominant than the Patriots. 

[BFritz21]

(02-12-2018, 10:57 PM)StrictlyBiz Wrote: How the hell can you out play someone but almost never have more than a 25% chance of winning? How can it be a game that they had no business winning, but had a greater than 95% chance of winning for more than one quarter in the second half?

Logic isn't your strong suit, is it? 

Wow.

Steelers fans really are blind and clueless.

Stats can't show who outplayed who most of the game.

Let's pretend that they can, though.

If Warner doesn't make that stupid play and Arizona ends up scoring, the Cardinals lead for every second of the second half and those 20 seconds or so of the first half.

Watch the game again (actually, it might be your first time watching it since you're so clueless about what happened) and see that the Cardinals were the better team.