Bringing back a HC after 3 straight losing seasons

[Bengalholic]

In Paul Dehner's latest article, he provides examples of why bringing back a coach after 3 straight losing seasons usually ends up badly -
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/nfl/bengals/2018/12/27/analysis-coaches-endure-three-straight-losing-seasons-shows-definitive-trend-marvin-lewis-bengals/2422821002/

Taking from Paul's article and using PFR, here's what you normally get when you bring back a coach after 3 straight losing seasons:

Since Marvin was hired, 12 other coaches have had 3 straight losing seasons and survived through the last game.

After the season ended, 7 were fired and 5 were retained.

Of the 5 that were retained, only Sean Payton had a winning record the next season. Of course, Payton was also a different case because he had previously won a SB and multiple playoff games, which factored into the reasoning for keeping him.

The other 4 coaches that were retained after 3 straight losing seasons had a combined record of 14-32 the following year and 3 of them got fired at some point during the season:

Jeff Fisher: 7-9 (He was also brought back the following year, but fired after 13 games)
Dick Jauron: 3-6
Gus Bradley: 2-12
Mike Nolan: 2-5

[GodFather]

(12-27-2018, 06:27 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: In Paul Dehner's latest article, he provides examples of why bringing back a coach after 3 straight losing seasons usually ends up badly -
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/nfl/bengals/2018/12/27/analysis-coaches-endure-three-straight-losing-seasons-shows-definitive-trend-marvin-lewis-bengals/2422821002/

Taking from Paul's article and using PFR, here's what you normally get when you bring back a coach after 3 straight losing seasons:

Since Marvin was hired, 12 other coaches have had 3 straight losing seasons and survived through the last game.

After the season ended, 7 were fired and 5 were retained.

Of the 5 that were retained, only Sean Payton had a winning record the next season. Of course, Payton was also a different case because he had previously won a SB and multiple playoff games, which factored into the reasoning for keeping him.

The other 4 coaches that were retained after 3 straight losing seasons had a combined record of 14-32 the following year and 3 of them got fired at some point during the season:

Jeff Fisher: 7-9 (He was also brought back the following year, but fired after 13 games)
Dick Jauron: 3-6
Gus Bradley: 2-12
Mike Nolan: 2-5

Logic and Mike Brown dont mix well..

[*bengalfan74*]

19-28-1 over three year span, 0-7 in playoffs, 2 wins at home against biggest rival, regularly folds under the lights, loses nearly 75% of the time to playoff bound teams and for 16 seasons !

And he can decide if he wants to come back ? You couldn't make this up.

[Devils Advocate]

(12-27-2018, 06:39 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: 19-28-1 over three year span, 0-7 in playoffs, 2 wins at home against biggest rival, regularly folds under the lights, loses nearly 75% of the time to playoff bound teams and for 16 seasons !

And he can decide if he wants to come back ? You couldn't make this up.

I wonder if Marvin has some ownership in the team or an agreement in place to gain some ownership in the future.

[SunsetBengal]

(12-27-2018, 06:27 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: In Paul Dehner's latest article, he provides examples of why bringing back a coach after 3 straight losing seasons usually ends up badly -
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/nfl/bengals/2018/12/27/analysis-coaches-endure-three-straight-losing-seasons-shows-definitive-trend-marvin-lewis-bengals/2422821002/

Taking from Paul's article and using PFR, here's what you normally get when you bring back a coach after 3 straight losing seasons:

Since Marvin was hired, 12 other coaches have had 3 straight losing seasons and survived through the last game.

After the season ended, 7 were fired and 5 were retained.

Of the 5 that were retained, only Sean Payton had a winning record the next season. Of course, Payton was also a different case because he had previously won a SB and multiple playoff games, which factored into the reasoning for keeping him.

The other 4 coaches that were retained after 3 straight losing seasons had a combined record of 14-32 the following year and 3 of them got fired at some point during the season:

Jeff Fisher: 7-9 (He was also brought back the following year, but fired after 13 games)
Dick Jauron: 3-6
Gus Bradley: 2-12
Mike Nolan: 2-5

The numbers are pretty telling, that it's not likely to work out well.

[*bengalfan74*]

(12-27-2018, 07:56 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: The numbers are pretty telling, that it's not likely to work out well.

It's an overused cliche but the game really has passed Marvin by. His chance was way back in 05-09.

[Yojimbo]

(12-27-2018, 08:18 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: It's an overused cliche but the game really has passed Marvin by. His chance was way back in 05-09.

IDK, Marv has always, even then, seemed really bad at clock management, player improvement, losing to the Steelers and choking in prime time/playoffs. I just don’t think he should have ever been a HC, like a Norv Turner, his skill set is best suited as a coordinator.

[*bengalfan74*]

(12-27-2018, 09:25 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: IDK, Marv has always, even then, seemed really bad at clock management, player improvement, losing to the Steelers and choking in prime time/playoffs. I just don’t think he should have ever been a HC, like a Norv Turner, his skill set is best suited as a coordinator.

Oh I agree

How about his best chance was back then ?

[3wt]

(12-27-2018, 09:25 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: IDK, Marv has always, even then, seemed really bad at clock management, player improvement, losing to the Steelers and choking in prime time/playoffs. I just don’t think he should have ever been a HC, like a Norv Turner, his skill set is best suited as a coordinator.

I think you're right.  He's done a pretty good job of salvaging the defense' season.

And it's not just the stats.  Though it is.  When you put his stats in context it is much more appalling than I thought.

It's the eye test:

• Controlling all his coordinators but Zimmer (this is a gut thing not a fact)
• How badly coached the team seems to be: tackling, gap integrity, penalties, assignment failures, John Ross (is it possible he's not quitting on routes but going where he's told to go?   He ran fine routes in college...)
• Rigid thinking - e.g. the O line just needs to continue playing together rather than trying different combinations
• Making the same mistakes over and over
• Hiring Hue when he did.  The whole team must feel humiliated.  I know I am.
• Playing not to lose
• Being a slave to a system rather than conforming the system to your players' strengths
• Throwing players and coaches under the bus
• Failing to develop creative (versus gimmicky) solutions to problems
• The whole denial of half time adjustments being a reality in the NFL
  

Fine man.   But he should just not be a head coach.

[Millhouse]

Unfortunately it's not cost effective for the ole miser to pay Marv for a year that he wouldn't be here.

Unless of course Marv gets bumped up to management and then they promote Hue. Winner winner chicken for Mikey dinner.

[BengalsRocker]

(12-27-2018, 09:42 PM)3wt Wrote: I think you're right.  He's done a pretty good job of salvaging the defense' season.

And it's not just the stats.  Though it is.  When you put his stats in context it is much more appalling than I thought.

It's the eye test:

• Controlling all his coordinators but Zimmer (this is a gut thing not a fact)
• How badly coached the team seems to be: tackling, gap integrity, penalties, assignment failures, John Ross (is it possible he's not quitting on routes but going where he's told to go?   He ran fine routes in college...)
• Rigid thinking - e.g. the O line just needs to continue playing together rather than trying different combinations
• Making the same mistakes over and over
• Hiring Hue when he did.  The whole team must feel humiliated.  I know I am.
• Playing not to lose
• Being a slave to a system rather than conforming the system to your players' strengths
• Throwing players and coaches under the bus
• Failing to develop creative (versus gimmicky) solutions to problems
• The whole denial of half time adjustments being a reality in the NFL
  

Fine man.   But he should just not be a head coach.

Letting the owner of the team not only force you to keep Paul Alexander, but gave him a promotion to assistant HC.

Let's all let that nugget sink in.

Mike Brown is an ass and Marvin knows he has to do things out of the norm of a regular HC just to be a HC.

I'd rather see a HC here that puts his foot down day one and at least gets to hire his own staff and not someone that has to coddle a booger-eater.

[*bengalfan74*]

(12-27-2018, 09:42 PM)3wt Wrote: I think you're right.  He's done a pretty good job of salvaging the defense' season.

And it's not just the stats.  Though it is.  When you put his stats in context it is much more appalling than I thought.

It's the eye test:

• Controlling all his coordinators but Zimmer (this is a gut thing not a fact)
• How badly coached the team seems to be: tackling, gap integrity, penalties, assignment failures, John Ross (is it possible he's not quitting on routes but going where he's told to go?   He ran fine routes in college...)
• Rigid thinking - e.g. the O line just needs to continue playing together rather than trying different combinations
• Making the same mistakes over and over
• Hiring Hue when he did.  The whole team must feel humiliated.  I know I am.
• Playing not to lose
• Being a slave to a system rather than conforming the system to your players' strengths
• Throwing players and coaches under the bus
• Failing to develop creative (versus gimmicky) solutions to problems
• The whole denial of half time adjustments being a reality in the NFL
  

Fine man.   But he should just not be a head coach.

Good post and I believe this is Marvin's biggest downfall ! He's says this is what we're going to do and by gawd we're gonna do it. Come hell or high water we're running it this way and to hell with any compromise or suiting what our players do well.

He's even said it before. "If these players can't do it my way, we'll get better players"

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-27-2018, 09:42 PM)3wt Wrote: I think you're right.  He's done a pretty good job of salvaging the defense' season.

And it's not just the stats.  Though it is.  When you put his stats in context it is much more appalling than I thought.

It's the eye test:

• Controlling all his coordinators but Zimmer (this is a gut thing not a fact)
• How badly coached the team seems to be: tackling, gap integrity, penalties, assignment failures, John Ross (is it possible he's not quitting on routes but going where he's told to go?   He ran fine routes in college...)
• Rigid thinking - e.g. the O line just needs to continue playing together rather than trying different combinations
• Making the same mistakes over and over
• Hiring Hue when he did.  The whole team must feel humiliated.  I know I am.
• Playing not to lose
• Being a slave to a system rather than conforming the system to your players' strengths
• Throwing players and coaches under the bus
• Failing to develop creative (versus gimmicky) solutions to problems
• The whole denial of half time adjustments being a reality in the NFL
  
  

Fine man.   But he should just not be a head coach.

Nice post brother, need to move on no question. All of this shows this and reps to you and Holic.

Not a good idea to keep this guy around another year no matter what the injuries were.

[*bengalfan74*]

(12-27-2018, 11:56 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Nice post brother, need to move on no question. All of this shows this and reps to you and Holic.

Not a good idea to keep this guy around another year no matter what the injuries were.

Injuries are a part of every teams season. Yes we've been crushed by injuries this season but the fact is this team wasn't very good fully healthy and moreover did not have anywhere near the coaching staff to compensate.

The Oline was awful, the LBers were awful, the defense was on track to be below average before all the injuries. Could we have won a couple more games if we stayed healthy ? Sure

Were we going anywhere though ? very doubtful

[Shake n Blake]

(12-27-2018, 06:39 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: 19-28-1 over three year span, 0-7 in playoffs, 2 wins at home against biggest rival, regularly folds under the lights, loses nearly 75% of the time to playoff bound teams and for 16 seasons !

And he can decide if he wants to come back ? You couldn't make this up.

Never has any fan base (in any sport) endured this much failure from one head coach for anything close to this long.

It's a special sort of suffering we have to endure as Bengals fans.

[*PhilHos*]

(12-28-2018, 12:48 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Never has any fan base (in any sport) endured this much failure from one head coach for anything close to this long.

It's a special sort of suffering we have to endure as Bengals fans.

It's bad enough to have to suffer through the 90s. Now, we have to suffer through the era of Merv.

[Shake n Blake]

(12-28-2018, 10:59 AM)PhilHos Wrote: It's bad enough to have to suffer through the 90s. Now, we have to suffer through the era of Merv.

Lol yep. First we go through one of the all-time worst era's, then for enduring that, we're rewarded with the teflon coach.

[THE PISTONS]

Well...there are other reasons it's bad unique to here. The coaches do a ton of the scouting here. Our drafts have been fairly bad lately. So you get poor scouting/drafting coupled with mediocre coaching.

We just need drastic changes all around.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(12-28-2018, 01:55 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Lol yep. First we go through one of the all-time worst era's, then for enduring that, we're rewarded with the teflon coach.

It took 15 years to get from the abyss to the continental shelf, maybe we'll hit the beach in 2035.

[sandwedge]

(12-28-2018, 03:11 PM)Wyche Wrote: It took 15 years to get from the abyss to the continental shelf, maybe we'll hit the beach in 2035.

  Best analogy yet!!  Wasn't it Jerry Glanville and the Oilers that started the whole "Hit The Beach" thing?