It's time to put an end to Model Model

[BengalChris]

https://www.bengals.com/news/model-model-7033688

Back in 2012 Mike Brown or Marvin Lewis or someone else came up with this Model Model thing and after a full 7 years of getting very little out of free agency and comp picks, and combine those two failures with a series of poor draft decisions and this team sank to 3 losing seasons in the last 3.

I pulled up this article again today and went through it and it reminded me of just how fearful Mike Brown has always been of free agency. At one point it talks about 3 expensive free agents the Bengals signed and uses this as the reason to not sign big free agents.

But, in reviewing it all again, none of those 3 expensive free agent had a career prior to coming to the Bengals that warranted those contracts, plus the Bengals didn't do their homework on these guys. One of the them mentioned was Antonio Bryant, who was signed despite being injured and never played a down for the Bengals. Another, Coles, was a #2 WR and a decent one in NY but hardly a player worth an expensive contract. And then there was Antwan Odom who had 12.5 sacks in 4 seasons with the Titan and a guy who only started an entire season once prior to being signed by the Bengals. Hardly production worthy of an expensive contract, even though Odom did have one good stretch for the Bengals before exiting with a season ending injury, the team considered it a failed signing.

NFL free agents are guys who have been playing in the league and there's tons of film on each of them (a lot more film than exists on colleges players) and if there isn't any film on them they didn't get playing time. So it is rather mystifying as to how much of a crap shoot these guys are. Really they shouldn't be much of a crap shoot at all as the team should be able to see exactly how that player performs and what their attitude is.

The articles likes to bring up Pittsburgh and New England as examples. However, those teams have a good track record of developing players who step up and fill the roles left by departing verterans. The Mike Brown front office has little history of success in that department. Look at how long it took the team to develop a WR to replace Marvin Jones and it still hasn't found a replacement for right tackle or right guard, and they had to make a trade to get someone fill the left tackle spot. That's an awful lot of failed development right there at those 4 positions.

Then we come to the comp picks. These picks are supposedly to replacement departing veterans who left in free agency, except the round and pick never seem to be fair compensation for the talent that walked out the door. We got a 5th round pick for Whit. Laughable.

It's time to put Model Model to rest once and for all.

[THE PISTONS]

Well...we have too many holes to fill in one draft alone. You have to use free agency to fill some of these.

We've lost quite a few impact free agents over the past 3-4 years...and failed to replace most through the draft with similar quality. Now, we're forced to use free agency atleast at some level.

Now I don't think anyone wants us to go out on Day 1 and throw massive contracts at guys. I'm talking Tier 2 and 3 free agents.

[THE PISTONS]

What I never liked about Model Model was it talked about how free agency was risky where the draft was not.

Look at any draft. Out of 7 picks you'll be lucky to get 2 starters and that's not even calling them good starters.

Out of 1st Round picks maybe 25% of them turn into good starters. Free agents atleast have game tape and a history competing against NFL level talent.

[McC]

(02-10-2019, 03:33 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Well...we have too many holes to fill in one draft alone. You have to use free agency to fill some of these.

We've lost quite a few impact free agents over the past 3-4 years...and failed to replace most through the draft with similar quality. Now, we're forced to use free agency atleast at some level.

Now I don't think anyone wants us to go out on Day 1 and throw massive contracts at guys. I'm talking Tier 2 and 3 free agents.

I think if Zac wants FA's, he'll get FA's.  Why do I think so?  One for instance, they let Chip Morton go and he's been here since the stone age.  Plus, they signed FA's for Marvin when he first got here.  And Duke keeps talking about giving him all the tools he needs to succeed.

Now WTS, I don't think they'll run out and try to buy a team in FA. That's never really worked for anybody. Just a couple starters.

[THE PISTONS]

(02-10-2019, 03:37 PM)McC Wrote: I think if Zac wants FA's, he'll get FA's.  Why do I think so?  One for instance, they let Chip Morton go and he's been here since the stone age.  Plus, they signed FA's for Marvin when he first got here.  And Duke keeps talking about giving him all the tools he needs to succeed.

Now WTS, I don't think they'll run out and try to buy a team in FA.  That's never really worked for anybody.  Just a couple starters.

I would think so too...atleast for the 1st year or 2.

At some point, we have to start getting our drafts back on track. Atleast hitting on 1st Round picks.

I would think that this younger coaching staff would connected to college and drafting well.

[BengalChris]

(02-10-2019, 03:33 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Well...we have too many holes to fill in one draft alone. You have to use free agency to fill some of these.

We've lost quite a few impact free agents over the past 3-4 years...and failed to replace most through the draft with similar quality. Now, we're forced to use free agency atleast at some level.

Now I don't think anyone wants us to go out on Day 1 and throw massive contracts at guys. I'm talking Tier 2 and 3 free agents.

I don't think we should go out and spend big money. The players signed in free agency need to be proven players. Looking at their film and injury history and scouting them is what the team needs to do a better job of. There will be someone we can sign who will upgrade the positions of need without spending a fortune.

Really Model Model was not a bad plan in concept, it was very poorly executed.

 

[HarleyDog]

As Pistons said, we are going to have to use FA at this point, but your right. We have to do the homework and not give away the farm. If they come here on a 2yr contract and play limits out? Then you pay them to stay.

[McC]

(02-10-2019, 03:42 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I would think so too...atleast for the 1st year or 2.

At some point, we have to start getting our drafts back on track. Atleast hitting on 1st Round picks.

I would think that this younger coaching staff would connected to college and drafting well.

To me, the draft is about getting good players for your team.  The fewer positions you HAVE TO fill, the more options you have in the draft.  If you can, say, get an elite pass rusher or a stud WR for ten years in the first round because you aren't forced to find a RT, for instance, the better your draft will be.

[THE PISTONS]

(02-10-2019, 03:43 PM)BengalChris Wrote: I don't think we should go out and spend big money. The players signed in free agency need to be proven players. Looking at their film and injury history and scouting them is what the team needs to do a better job of. There will be someone we can sign who will upgrade the positions of need without spending a fortune.

And that's what a bunch of us have been wanting for about 15 years.

The Bengals typically sign lower tier guys to 1 year deals.

We should target a couple tiers higher like Jordan Hicks for 2-3 year deals. (Although Hicks has been injured.)

[hollodero]

(02-10-2019, 03:33 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Now I don't think anyone wants us to go out on Day 1 and throw massive contracts at guys. I'm talking Tier 2 and 3 free agents.

I do... for a player that's worth it. Mosley or Wright maybe.

Going with tier 2 didn't always work out so well. Eg. I'd rather get a top ILB instead of another Dansby/Minter/Brown guy.

[THE PISTONS]

(02-10-2019, 03:43 PM)BengalChris Wrote: I don't think we should go out and spend big money. The players signed in free agency need to be proven players. Looking at their film and injury history and scouting them is what the team needs to do a better job of. There will be someone we can sign who will upgrade the positions of need without spending a fortune.

Really Model Model was not a bad plan in concept, it was very poorly executed.

 

Model Model was 100% based on being able to draft at a high level. IF you can get 3-4 quality players out of each draft, it can work. You need to replace guys leaving in free agency.

But, my argument is that even if it does work...you're only replacing guys that leave and not improving.

IF you are going to rely like 90% on the draft, you'd think a team would have a large scouting department...wouldn't you?

[THE PISTONS]

(02-10-2019, 03:52 PM)hollodero Wrote: I do... for a player that's worth it. Mosley or Wright maybe.

Going with tier 2 didn't always work out so well. Eg. I'd rather get a top ILB instead of another Dansby/Minter/Brown guy.

I'd consider a Tier 1 guy a Top 10 free agent.

Tier 2 would be maybe Top 11-30.

Dansby, Minter, and Brown were not tier 2 guys. They were about Tier 4/5 guys. They'd be lucky to make a list of a Top 100 free agent.

[J24]

A guy like Darryl Williams from Carolina would be nice along with KJ wright at LB

[THE PISTONS]

(02-10-2019, 03:46 PM)McC Wrote: To me, the draft is about getting good players for your team.  The fewer positions you HAVE TO fill, the more options you have in the draft.  If you can, say, get an elite pass rusher or a stud WR for ten years in the first round because you aren't forced to find a RT, for instance, the better your draft will be.

Absolutely! I conceptually would love to pick a WR or a QB this year.

But, with needing 2 LB's, an OT, a G, and a starting TE...we just can't.

It's a shame we have this many needs. You can directly track it back to free agent losses and not developing draft picks.

With our draft, guys either get here playing well...or don't develop. Hard to mention guys outside of Boyd, who actually got a lot better in Years 2 and 3. To me, that's on coaching and not drafting to fit the system.

[hollodero]

(02-10-2019, 03:58 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: I'd consider a Tier 1 guy a Top 10 free agent.

Tier 2 would be maybe Top 11-30.

Dansby, Minter, and Brown were not tier 2 guys. They were about Tier 4/5 guys. They'd be lucky to make a list of a Top 100 free agent.

...well, nfl.com ranks mosley as No. 10 amongst free agents. So technically they call him a top 10 guy.

Most others on that list aren't a good fit... maybe Earl Thomas. I don't know about DeMarcus Lawrence. Mosley would be a logical target out of this group.
Wright No. 19, so also higher as the Bengals usually go. I disagree though that Brown - lead the league in tackling - was a tier 4/5 guy... rather the personification of tier 2 to me. Minter had some reputation, Dansby was called great once. These weren't no-names, just tier 2.

[McC]

(02-10-2019, 04:04 PM)hollodero Wrote: ...well, nfl.com ranks mosley as No. 10. So technically they call him a top 10 guy.

Most others on that list aren't a good fit... maybe Earl Thomas. I don't know about DeMarcus Lawrence. Mosley would be a logical target out of this group.
Wright No. 19, so also higher as the Bengals usually go. I disagree though that Brown - lead the league in tackling - was a tier 4/5 guy... rather the personification of tier 2 to me. Minter had some reputation, Dansby was called great once. These weren't no-names, just tier 2.

I would break it down something like this---

Tier 1--big name, PB level, big contract, a bunch of guaranteed money.

Tier 2--Should be an instant starter, at least solid and reliable, maybe a young up and comer, should be an upgrade.  Mid range sized contract.

Tier 3--Used to be good but now long in the tooth, maybe someone who was highly rated in the draft who didn't pan out, a possible reclamation project.  Will play for cheap.

[fredtoast]

1. Free agents are not as risky as draft picks but they cost several times more. To me it is kind of surprising how many free agents fail to live up to their contracts but apparently different coaches, schemes, and teammates make a huge difference.

2. Model Model is a good plan. We have just failed in execution. Changing plans won't make any difference if we still fail to sign the right guys.

3. Model Model is the best year-to-year plan, but when you do get a roster that is close to competing for a championship you have to step up and take a little bigger risk in free agency to fill in the final gaps.

4. Bengals basically re-built the defense in 2011 by signing three starters in free agency. None of them were huge stars, but Nate Clements was still considered a big name signing while Manny Lawson and Thomas Howard had been starters for years before coming to the Bengals.

5. Last year the Bengals brought in a OT who was top ten salaried at his position and a LB who was top half of the league in salary for his position.

[hollodero]

(02-10-2019, 04:09 PM)McC Wrote: Tier 1--big name, PB level, big contract, a bunch of guaranteed money.

So guys like CJ Mosley.

(02-10-2019, 04:09 PM)McC Wrote: Tier 2--Should be an instant starter, at least solid and reliable, maybe a young up and comer, should be an upgrade.  Mid range sized contract.

So guys like Preston Brown.

(02-10-2019, 04:09 PM)McC Wrote: Tier 3--Used to be good but now long in the tooth, maybe someone who was highly rated in the draft who didn't pan out, a possible reclamation project.  Will play for cheap.

So guys like Karlos Dansby.

...applying your tiers, I still am in favour of a somewhat bigger contract ILB instead of Tier 2/3 guys like those mentioned. Which were instant starters.

[fredtoast]

Biggest problem with free agents is that their price is not always based on ability. Price is based on supply and demand. A player who is just decent can get a huge salary if his position is in demand and there are not many options on the market.

That is where many teams mess up. They overpay for a player because they are desperate and there are no other good options.

[THE PISTONS]

(02-10-2019, 04:00 PM)Jakeypoo Wrote: A guy like Darryl Williams from Carolina would be nice along with KJ wright at LB

Wright is ranked as the #42 free agent at PFF. He played 5 games last year. Here is his analysis:


Wright has been trending downwards ever since he earned an 88.3 overall grade back in 2015. The Seahawks linebacker hasn’t graded above 70.0 in coverage since, and he will be 30 next season. He’s still one of the best tackling linebackers in the NFL and has only one season with double-digit misses in his career (2014).