Thoughts on Joe Burrow

[*bengalfan74*]

(12-09-2019, 12:29 AM)WhodeyRay Wrote: I think you draft Burrow and bring his OC with him.

That would be sweet since there's a lot of questions about our current playcaller.

[*ochocincos*]

Joe Burrow has (way) better pocket presence and mobility than I was giving him credit for 1-2 months ago.
His accuracy is top notch.
His demeanor is very calm, cool, and collected at all times.
He doesn't have a cannon of an arm to always hit the deep ball in stride but it's a better arm than Dalton's.

Barring an injury, I'm sold on Burrow as the #1 overall pick now and want him as a Bengal.

He's not as perfect of a prospect as Andrew Luck was but Luck is the best prospect to come out this decade.

[Au165]

(12-09-2019, 10:10 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Is this the "throwing receivers open" thing we hear about with top level QB's ?

I've watched Burrow quite a bit over the last 3 weeks or so and I'm very impressed. His overall "football awareness" for lack of a better way to put it just seems outstanding. Like they used to say about P. Manning, he sees the game in color while everyone else is in B&W.

Perhaps his arm strength is not Elway or Favre level ? But isn't anticipation, timing more important ?

I want him.

Yea, kind of. That can have a couple meaning one being against Man you are throwing the ball where the break is going to be basically anticipating the break. The other idea is in Zone coverage there are throwing windows and in those cases he is throwing through the window expecting the WR to be there on the other side. 

I think he has just had better coaching then a lot of QB's at college get. He is breaking down coverages with his eyes and I think it has made the game look really easy to this point. There will still be some adjusting to the NFL because the athletes on the other side can make more plays and NFL DC's are better at scheming you into bad positions. 

His arm strength is fine, I'm not sure it's not that he can't throw the fastball now I more so think he chooses touch over power. 

[Bilbo Saggins]

I think that it's worth taking a look at some of the better arguments against taking Burrow in order to gauge whether or not the risk/reward balances out.

1.  He's a one year wonder.  He doesn't have enough experience or production to justify his draft stock.
Programs like OSU just aren't set up to crown a franchise QB who can run a pro offense for a decade or more.  They're set up to keep athletes who are doing well enough in the drivers seat.  Shorter periods of time, watered down schemes, inertia for win/loss totals and experience are all factors.  Once given a chance to start, he was never bad.

2.  He'll be beaten down and ruined by the environment in Cincinnati.
There's nothing that says that you have to throw a QB into action before they're ready.  The quality of the line or the coaches really have nothing to do with JB9 as a prospect in a void.  This seems to be a very defeatist line of thinking that strives for the comfort of 8-8 type of seasons rather than championship potential.

3.  He's not a premium athlete with elite attributes.
Maybe he doesn't have the cannon or the elite speed of some prospects.  What he does appear to have are requisite tools to work with as far as arm strength and mobility.  His anticipation, accuracy, and mental processing speeds DO appear to be elite at the collegiate level.  Those attributes should be able to translate at the next level better than raw freak athleticism.

4.  The team has more pressing needs than a QB.
Isn't QB a need at this point?  Couldn't a great prospect at QB potentially instill some confidence and gusto into the organization?  Might Burrow not give everyone a greater sense of light at the end of the tunnel?  

5.  A trade down will net more potential starters.  
Sure.  What happens when you're good enough to beat the bad teams and you still need a QB?  Finding the needle in the haystack QB who falls isn't very likely.  Trading up to the top of the first costs a lot of draft capital.  Free agent QBs demand a lot of cap space.  

6.  LSU's staff and roster are why Burrow has been so good.
This one is hard to disprove, because they revamped their offense just as Burrow arrived.  Maybe Joe Brady and Justin Jefferson have done more of the heavy lifting than people realize.  It is hard to discount just how absurdly accurate he has been this season.  The numbers bear out that he's in the very least putting the ball in the right spots at the right times at a freakishly efficient level.

None of them seem like particularly good arguments compared to the arguments that are in favor of taking Burrow imo.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(12-09-2019, 09:50 AM)Au165 Wrote: I have been leading the Chase Young charge for over a month now and I have to tell you guys, I am now a Burrow backer. I sat down Sunday and watched a few more games and in total now I have watched 5 of his starts this year. People are going to laugh, but you guys are going to hear a comp a lot heading into this draft and people won't believe it...Tom Brady. It's not saying he will be the GOAT so calm down, but when you watch the tape the similarities between them are uncanny.

First thing you have to understand is this guy is setting protections at the line of scrimmage. While he plays at a big time school his line this year hasn't been good and when that break down occurs his escapability has been impressive. Obviously, that doesn't remind anyone of Brady, which is a good thing but that's about where their similarities stop. His anticipation on timing throws is elite, he knows where the WR is going to be and puts the ball in the window to let the WR run after catches. His touch on intermediate passes is what makes you really start thinking Brady.

Ball trajectory is a big deal and most people don't really understand the nuances of changing the trajectory based on the coverage and placement, instead they choose to simply add more arm strength to make the throw. The thing Burrow does best, and something I haven't seen many other QB's on tape do as consistently, is put the perfect trajectory on passes to drop the ball in a place where it is literally indefensible CONSISTENTLY. Every QB can make a "wow" throw in this area on occasion but he does it multiple times every game.

As I mentioned before, some teams will be turned off by his demeanor. There is a cocky arrogance to him that I think some will like and others not so much, but his teammates appear to respect it. Every week he gets an entire book on the opposing team and him and Joe Brady sit down and he gets quizzed on it, this isn't normal college behavior this is what they do in the Pro's. This brings me to the biggest thing, he basically has already done a rookie season in terms of learning to prepare like a pro. Most rookie QB's will come in and not understand what it takes to get to Sunday but Joe Brady has basically installed that this year which makes me think that he is going to come in ahead of most rookies in terms of ability to prepare week to week.

I still believe he is going to have some growing pains, but in terms of recent QB's coming out based strictly on tape I'd put him behind only Luck/Ryan/Winston in the last 10 years. My track record with QB's has been pretty good and I actually think this kid has "IT" and so I am willing to pass on a sure fire pass rusher in this case....which I don't take lightly.

I'm supposed to be gone, but I stumbled upon this and will leave after this post.

Burrow is absolutely NOT cocky in the slightest; I get I'm an LSU fan (due to Whitworth) and this has been a completely magical season, but Baker Mayfield is cocky and arrogant; Burrow is absolutely not.

He's a fantastic leader too, something most cocky QBs lack AND he has command over the team and offense.

These traits all came out last year (needless to say, I watch a fair amount of LSU games) and he even had a decent year last year. But the system is what made him elevate his game and I definitely think he'll be a success in the pros.

We even run a lot of the same plays (mainly running plays from Shotgun) as LSU, from what I can tell, thus I think he would pick things up in no time.

Agreed, he should be the pick at 1 or 2, unless we trade back (no way in hell do the Giants take another QB, not going to happen).

EDIT* and you pick the best remaining OT with your first 2nd round pick. Or, you trade back into the first. I think we can all agree this is sound reasoning.

[3wt]

(12-09-2019, 09:50 AM)Au165 Wrote: I have been leading the Chase Young charge for over a month now and I have to tell you guys, I am now a Burrow backer. I sat down Sunday and watched a few more games and in total now I have watched 5 of his starts this year. People are going to laugh, but you guys are going to hear a comp a lot heading into this draft and people won't believe it...Tom Brady. It's not saying he will be the GOAT so calm down, but when you watch the tape the similarities between them are uncanny.

First thing you have to understand is this guy is setting protections at the line of scrimmage. While he plays at a big time school his line this year hasn't been good and when that break down occurs his escapability has been impressive. Obviously, that doesn't remind anyone of Brady, which is a good thing but that's about where their similarities stop. His anticipation on timing throws is elite, he knows where the WR is going to be and puts the ball in the window to let the WR run after catches. His touch on intermediate passes is what makes you really start thinking Brady.

Ball trajectory is a big deal and most people don't really understand the nuances of changing the trajectory based on the coverage and placement, instead they choose to simply add more arm strength to make the throw. The thing Burrow does best, and something I haven't seen many other QB's on tape do as consistently, is put the perfect trajectory on passes to drop the ball in a place where it is literally indefensible CONSISTENTLY. Every QB can make a "wow" throw in this area on occasion but he does it multiple times every game.

As I mentioned before, some teams will be turned off by his demeanor. There is a cocky arrogance to him that I think some will like and others not so much, but his teammates appear to respect it. Every week he gets an entire book on the opposing team and him and Joe Brady sit down and he gets quizzed on it, this isn't normal college behavior this is what they do in the Pro's. This brings me to the biggest thing, he basically has already done a rookie season in terms of learning to prepare like a pro. Most rookie QB's will come in and not understand what it takes to get to Sunday but Joe Brady has basically installed that this year which makes me think that he is going to come in ahead of most rookies in terms of ability to prepare week to week.

I still believe he is going to have some growing pains, but in terms of recent QB's coming out based strictly on tape I'd put him behind only Luck/Ryan/Winston in the last 10 years. My track record with QB's has been pretty good and I actually think this kid has "IT" and so I am willing to pass on a sure fire pass rusher in this case....which I don't take lightly.

This is exactly where I'm at.   Having watched both he and Young, I love both of them.

But this guy transforms the whole team.   I've been a Dalton Backer, but everything I've read and seen of this guy tells me that he's like Dalton with a major post snap upgrade.   As much as I'd love young, if we have a shot at this guy that's who I want.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-09-2019, 01:03 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: I'm supposed to be gone, but I stumbled upon this and will leave after this post.

Burrow is absolutely NOT cocky in the slightest; I get I'm an LSU fan (due to Whitworth) and this has been a completely magical season, but Baker Mayfield is cocky and arrogant; Burrow is absolutely not.

He's a fantastic leader too, something most cocky QBs lack AND he has command over the team and offense.

These traits all came out last year (needless to say, I watch a fair amount of LSU games) and he even had a decent year last year. But the system is what made him elevate his game and I definitely think he'll be a success in the pros.

We even run a lot of the same plays (mainly running plays from Shotgun) as LSU, from what I can tell, thus I think he would pick things up in no time.

Agreed, he should be the pick at 1 or 2, unless we trade back (no way in hell do the Giants take another QB, not going to happen).

EDIT* and you pick the best remaining OT with your first 2nd round pick. Or, you trade back into the first. I think we can all agree this is sound reasoning.

Stick around Truck. Nobody expected you to actually honor that silly bet.

[Au165]

(12-09-2019, 01:03 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: I'm supposed to be gone, but I stumbled upon this and will leave after this post.

Burrow is absolutely NOT cocky in the slightest; I get I'm an LSU fan (due to Whitworth) and this has been a completely magical season, but Baker Mayfield is cocky and arrogant; Burrow is absolutely not.

Disagree, I have been told by a scout (One of two I get most my information from) he comes across as arrogant to some when you talk to him. As he put it, some people will love his confidence others will hate it but it's undeniable when you talk to him. This will be his knock, because there is always a knock and he doesn't have many, as the draft season rolls on. Now how true it is? IDK but he has had his moments on the field, for instance waving to Texas fans on the sideline. He also had a run in with a professor on social media where he asked the professor why he thought they were entitled to the "fruits of their (Footballs" labor". 

[Nicomo Cosca]

After 15 years of a laid back California guy and a choirboy I’m ready for cocky and arrogant. Sign me up.

[*Synric*]

Burrow's field vision and post snap processing is on another level compared to most recent drafted QBs. He makes his reads so quickly after the snap and makes quick excellent decisions.

[Nati#1]

(12-09-2019, 12:29 AM)WhodeyRay Wrote: I think you draft Burrow and bring his OC with him.

Yeah I would like to have Joe Brady.

[J24]

(12-09-2019, 01:40 PM)Au165 Wrote: Disagree, I have been told by a scout (One of two I get most my information from) he comes across as arrogant to some when you talk to him. As he put it, some people will love his confidence others will hate it but it's undeniable when you talk to him. This will be his knock, because there is always a knock and he doesn't have many, as the draft season rolls on. Now how true it is? IDK but he has had his moments on the field, for instance waving to Texas fans on the sideline. He also had a run in with a professor on social media where he asked the professor why he thought they were entitled to the "fruits of their (Footballs" labor". 

Him being cocky doesn't bother me one bit. We kinda need that swag on this team.

[Stewy]

i decline to answer as it isn't as simple as yes or no, and Hebert shouldn't even come into the conversation as he isn't in the same realm.

Better answers:

Take Burrow
Take Young
Trade down, collect, picks and take best players and QB of opportunity in late round 1 or round 2
Other - explain below

[SunsetBengal]

(12-09-2019, 07:15 PM)Stewy Wrote: i decline to answer as it isn't as simple as yes or no, and Hebert shouldn't even come into the conversation as he isn't in the same realm.

Better answers:

Take Burrow
Take Young
Trade down, collect, picks and take best players and QB of opportunity in late round 1 or round 2
Other - explain below

Hopefully you noticed that the "Take Herbert" option has 0 votes..

[bengaloo]

Its a no brainer. If he is there you have to take Burrow. I dont mind losing out which is not something I normally advocate, but players like him dont come around often enough and we need a real franchise QB if we are ever going to reach another SB. I wish Finley were still starting at this point lol.

[*Synric*]

Joe Burrow is PFFs high graded College Quarterback under pressure of all-time.

Joe Burrows Pressured passing stats & their rank all-time at (@PFF_College)

- YPA: 11.7 (1st)
- TDs: 14 (1st)
- Comp %: 66.0% (1st)
- Adj. Comp %: 73.9% (1st)
- Passer Rtg: 141.4 (1st)#GeauxTigers

VIA@PFF_Cam)pic.twitter.com/58VObWtkUy

— Josh Lemoine (@LsuFBallTruth) December 9, 2019

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-09-2019, 11:25 PM)Synric Wrote: Joe Burrow is PFFs high graded College Quarterback under pressure of all-time.

Joe Burrows Pressured passing stats & their rank all-time at (@PFF_College)

- YPA: 11.7 (1st)
- TDs: 14 (1st)
- Comp %: 66.0% (1st)
- Adj. Comp %: 73.9% (1st)
- Passer Rtg: 141.4 (1st)#GeauxTigers

VIA@PFF_Cam)pic.twitter.com/58VObWtkUy

— Josh Lemoine (@LsuFBallTruth) December 9, 2019

But...but ONE YEAR WONDER!!! ITS THE SYSTEM AND COACHING!!!

[Au165]

(12-09-2019, 11:25 PM)Synric Wrote: Joe Burrow is PFFs high graded College Quarterback under pressure of all-time.

Joe Burrows Pressured passing stats & their rank all-time at (@PFF_College)

- YPA: 11.7 (1st)
- TDs: 14 (1st)
- Comp %: 66.0% (1st)
- Adj. Comp %: 73.9% (1st)
- Passer Rtg: 141.4 (1st)#GeauxTigers

VIA@PFF_Cam)pic.twitter.com/58VObWtkUy

— Josh Lemoine (@LsuFBallTruth) December 9, 2019

His ability to throw with pressure, especially pressure in his face, is what pops out on film. LSU is a big time name in college football but their O line is not big time, in fact I only see one player on it right now he would be draft able. I will say, I wish he'd get rid of the ball more because there are times him extending the play results in him taking some big hits. 

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

Those who have been watching his games - give me your top three reasons why he'll succeed in the NFL and top three reasons why he'll fail in the NFL

[Au165]

(12-10-2019, 09:27 AM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: Those who have been watching his games - give me your top three reasons why he'll succeed in the NFL and top three reasons why he'll fail in the NFL

Three reason's why he could succeed...

• Ability to move in the pocked to buy time while directing traffic. A somewhat new "requirement" in the NFL has become the ability to run inside the pocket due to the lack of talent coming into the league at O line. Burrow does this as well as anyone, and I'll go ahead and say it, if he was African American people would be calling him Russell Wilson like in his ability to make stuff happen with the pocket breaking down.
• Intermediate passing accuracy/touch. The NFL isn't driven by the deep ball, and the short ball is something you either have or you don't, but  intermediate throwing is what separates good from great players. Those routes that fall between 11-20 yards are some of the hardest to complete but some of the most crucial throws a QB will make. Burrow's accuracy on these passes are one of his best traits and his ability to put enough touch on them to protect the ball from oncoming defenders is something that you'll here me say often reminds me of Tom Brady.
• He is running a scheme made for today's NFL. Joe Brady has brought along an offense reminiscent of what Sean Peyton is running down in New Orleans and Joe Burrow is running it to perfection. Every week Brady prepares him like a pro player giving him a book of coverages and notes to study and then he quizzes him on what their next opponent will be looking to doing various situations. Many guys come out of college with talent and their biggest flaw is adjusting to preparing for Sundays, that will not be an issue for Joe Burrow.
  

Three reason's why he could fail...

• Supporting cast is carrying him? While it is no lie Burrow has been amazing this year it's worth pointing out that he has two 1st round wr's he is throwing to and potentially a day 2 HB in the backfield with him. While the offensive line lacks draftable talent the weapons department has no shortage of talent. 
• Bad base = Under thrown deep ball? As you watch film there are enough under thrown deep balls to make you wonder what is going on there. It seems most of these come after he scrambles and doesn't get his base set back underneath him instead attempting to muscle it down field. These often result in his WR's adjusting and making spectacular catches (see point 1), but there should be a slight concern about this moving forward as many of these end up the other way in the NFL.
• Cocky vs Confident? This is something I keep telling people to watch for as we have seen some "ego" guys in recent years and there is a belief that what used to be a desired confidence people wanted in their QB's is turning into a cockiness or arrogance in some. Burrow has had a couple incidents this year that didn't come across great to people I know. I was told by one scout that the tape is great, and people who talk football with him will love his X's and O's knowledge, the issue will be that when he is challenged about those X's and O's he can come across as a know it all. Some will chalk it up to youth others (potentially old school guys) will call it tough to coach but it's something to watch.
  

I posed the reasons why as questions because the difficulty here is I don't think he does fail so I am more so looking at notes I have and trying to come up with some potential issues not ones that are necessarily a real worry to me. The deep ball issue I think will creep up occasionally in the NFL, but that's a mechanics issue and that still will break down as a vet as we see guys do it every weekend.