Joe Burrow under pressure

[phil413]

(05-01-2020, 11:31 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Correct.

If you can manipulate Ds, it doesn't matter what the protection is.

Hence, Peyton Manning playing at a super high-level and winnings SBs, with friggin' Charlie Johnson at LT.

I like our chances going forward

I've got high hopes for Burrow but...

-We are projecting him to an amazing standard.  He had a record season, but with the speed of the game and shortened off season there are a lot of adversities beyond a rough current OL.

-We owe it to Joe to help him succeed is a concept we throw around a lot.  In theory, giving him a stud DT in Reader helps get the ball back in better field position and hopefully not force him to have to score every single drive (though your aim is to do that).  

...we are still short one good offensive lineman.  No matter how confident or talented he is, even if Cincy uses only 5 blockers at times our plan can't be to let him be on the run constantly.  I do believe they'll find a good cut FA or justify trading a late pick if need be.  If you believe in the young guys fine, but use some of the remaining money on a vet.  AJ and Mixon's extensions dont preclude this, just move the guarantees around.

Joe has shown in college he can rise above, hopefully  the line improves so they don't have to depend on rookie records over all the adversity to make the playoffs.  Especially if you can fix some of the adversity.

[Daddy-O]

(05-01-2020, 05:29 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You are experiencing what is called "confirmation bias".  You did not watch the 2018 games until AFTER you were convinced he was the greatest college QB in recent history.  That is why you think he looked good in 2018.

The professional NFL scouts who watched Burrow in real time in 2018 were not impressed at all.  None of them had him ranked higher than a late round prospect. 

So who was worse at their job, Burrow or the scouts?  

I would say the scouts because they should be able to look through the tea leaves, e.g. new team, first year in system, unfamiliarity with players, etc. etc.  Scouts should be evaluating intangibles, like accuracy, processing information, release time, leadership / pocket presence, arm strength, escapeability, list goes on and on.  That's what they get paid to do, not just look at game numbers. 

Obviously a late round grade is a miserable fail on the part of the scouts IMO - so called professionals.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-01-2020, 03:52 PM)Jhowdy54 Wrote: One problem is this past year he was very rarely under center.

Don't need him to be comfortable under center in order to run a 4th and 1 delayed QB run out of the shotgun. The 'ol ZT special.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(05-02-2020, 12:41 AM)phil413 Wrote: I've got high hopes for Burrow but...

-We are projecting him to an amazing standard.  He had a record season, but with the speed of the game and shortened off season there are a lot of adversities beyond a rough current OL.

-We owe it to Joe to help him succeed is a concept we throw around a lot.  In theory, giving him a stud DT in Reader helps get the ball back in better field position and hopefully not force him to have to score every single drive (though your aim is to do that).  

...we are still short one good offensive lineman.  No matter how confident or talented he is, even if Cincy uses only 5 blockers at times our plan can't be to let him be on the run constantly.  I do believe they'll find a good cut FA or justify trading a late pick if need be.  If you believe in the young guys fine, but use some of the remaining money on a vet.  AJ and Mixon's extensions dont preclude this, just move the guarantees around.

Joe has shown in college he can rise above, hopefully  the line improves so they don't have to depend on rookie records over all the adversity to make the playoffs.  Especially if you can fix some of the adversity.

Use the money to extend.

We can always use oline, but I'm all in on Fred at RT.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

What sealed the deal for me was the Championship game. Clemson absolutely bludgeoned him early on. He stayed tough and obviously bounced back in a huge way.

[fredtoast]

(05-02-2020, 09:43 AM)Daddy-O Wrote: So who was worse at their job, Burrow or the scouts?  

I would say the scouts because they should be able to look through the tea leaves, e.g. new team, first year in system, unfamiliarity with players, etc. etc.  Scouts should be evaluating intangibles, like accuracy, processing information, release time, leadership / pocket presence, arm strength, escapeability, list goes on and on.  That's what they get paid to do, not just look at game numbers. 

Obviously a late round grade is a miserable fail on the part of the scouts IMO - so called professionals.

 The scouts did not mess up.  Burrow did not show all those traits in 2018.  He was not throwing with pinpoint accuracy.  He was not making a lot of great plays outside the pocket.  He did not lead them to any really big wins.

[fredtoast]

(05-01-2020, 06:42 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I'll say it again. Joe Burrow doesn't like max protect. He only wants 5 guys blocking. He said once he earned respect at LSU he talked them into more 5-man protection. It's why his number jumped so. Of course this may lead to a few more sacks but it also leads to a hell of a lot more big plays.

I absolutely understand the theory, but if he wants to throw the ball downfield he will find that there is a HUGE difference between avoiding college pass rushers and NFL players.  MOst games he played last year there was not a single NFL level player chasing him.

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-01-2020, 04:03 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Great post Jhowdy. This is what makes Burrow so special, he was getting hit and sacked constantly and still put up those 
numbers. I heard someone ranked LSU's O-line #1 in the nation which was just crazy. Joe Burrow made that O-line look 
much better than it actually was. I don't think he will have a problem behind our O-line if they keep improving and I highly
doubt they do not improve with Jonah and XSF added after last year.

But yeah, will have to run more Shotgun and adapt to that LSU/Saints system. Still can run it out of the Shotgun.

I believe this, combined with the addition of XSF and Jonah Williams (and a potential battle at RG with Adeniji and RT with Hart/Johnson), is why the Bengals didn't go after Josh Jones over the WR.  Dalton had a quick release, but his mobility was below average.  He always seemed to vacate to the right and rarely stepped up in to the pocket.  This is one of the characteristics I love most about Burrow is how he shuffles around the pocket avoiding the rush but keeps his cool and his eyes downfield.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-01-2020, 04:29 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: You should.  It would ease any of the 1 year wonder concerns.  You can see his talent and how accurate he was back then.  I actually didn't watch too many of the 2019 games after awhile because they were all too good.  I went back and watched a lot of the 2018 and you would think Burrow was God-awful in those games, but he wasnt'

One of my favorite descriptions about Burrow's "one year wonder" farce was a guy on the Locked on Bengals Podcast.  It was a guest, and I forget his name, but he called LSU games if memory serves.

He said:  "You have to go back 20 games to find the last time Burrow was average.....Every game....Every single game the last 20 was elite".

Wow

[fredtoast]

(05-02-2020, 10:27 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: One of my favorite descriptions about Burrow's "one year wonder" farce was a guy on the Locked on Bengals Podcast.  It was a guest, and I forget his name, but he called LSU games if memory serves.

He said:  "You have to go back 20 games to find the last time Burrow was average.....Every game....Every single game the last 20 was elite".

Wow

I think it is a bit of a stretch to call 195 yds and 1 td against Arkansas an "elite" game.

Plus 3 great games at the end of a season don't change the fact that over the first 9 games he completed less than 50% of his passes more times (twice) than he completed over 60% (once).  He only had a td pass in 3 of his first 9 games and only passed for more than 200 yds twice.


Even with his hot finish he still ranked 12th in a 14 team league in passer rating. 

[Nicomo Cosca]

(05-02-2020, 10:02 AM)fredtoast Wrote:  The scouts did not mess up.  Burrow did not show all those traits in 2018.  He was not throwing with pinpoint accuracy.  He was not making a lot of great plays outside the pocket. He did not lead them to any really big wins.

The Fiesta Bowl wasn’t a big win? He beat #8 UCF with a 4 TD 394 yds performance.

He also beat #5 Georgia. Yes, he only had 200 yds and 0 TD’s, but weren’t you just getting on me for not giving a QB enough credit even in games other players played bigger roles in winning?

[fredtoast]

(05-02-2020, 12:43 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The Fiesta Bowl wasn’t a big win? He beat #8 UCF with a 4 TD 394 yds performance.

He also beat #5 Georgia. Yes, he only had 200 yds and 0 TD’s, but weren’t you just getting on me for not giving a QB enough credit even in games other players played bigger roles in winning?

UCF was a joke.  Their biggest win of the season was over Cincinnati.  Temple and Mephis score more points against them than LSU.

But I had forgotten that he beat Georgia.  Funny because that is one of the games that I actually watched him play.  In that game he looked like a duel threat type college QB who was better running than passing.  But it was a HUGE win.  Georgia was undefeated at the time and was considered one of the favorite for the Championship game.

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-02-2020, 12:00 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I think it is a bit of a stretch to call 195 yds and 1 td against Arkansas an "elite" game.

Plus 3 great games at the end of a season don't change the fact that over the first 9 games he completed less than 50% of his passes more times (twice) than he completed over 60% (once).  He only had a td pass in 3 of his first 9 games and only passed for more than 200 yds twice.


Even with his hot finish he still ranked 12th in a 14 team league in passer rating. 

The Arkansas game had them up 24-3 until mid-way through the 4th quarter.  He was just handing the ball off a lot by that point (48 team rushes).  To say that a 71% completion % and 9.3 yards per attempt isn't elite might be a bit of a stretch...but even if I let you call that one "average", that is still 19 consecutive games where he didn't even have an average performance.  

The point was made that it wasn't all in 2019, and that is what the final four games show in 2018.  The coaches at LSU started to give him more as they started to realize he could handle a more wide-open playbook.  Had you ever watched LSU offense before Burrow?  They were stone age.  His abilities in 2018 is what got them to open things up.  

He also didn't get to LSU until after some spring practices had already been held there.  He had to learn a new system, team, coaching staff, etc.  The fact that a college kid with little playing experience picked it up that quickly is further testament to his football IQ.  

[Aquapod770]

I don't know if hanging our hat on how good Burrow is going to be behind our trash line is the best thing...

I still would have preferred we invested a little more in protecting our number 1 overall pick.

[Shouldamapads]

So what I read here is, he’s used to running for his life and was successful in doing so. Good, this will be no different unless we sign a player or two. And also everyone is appointing Jonah as the next Whitworth, but we have no idea if he will live up to expectation. I hope so, but he’s yet to prove anything.

[Cicero]

(05-01-2020, 04:06 PM)bengals67 Wrote: Am I wrong in thinking Mixon was more effective running from shotgun than when QB was under center?

Thought I heard that but maybe I am wrong and will stand corrected if so.

I think this is more common than people realize. Not sure if its because it changes the angle of attack for the blockers or what, but it seems to be more effective for undersized or under powered lines.  

[fredtoast]

(05-02-2020, 07:56 PM)Cicero Wrote: I think this is more common than people realize. Not sure if its because it  changes the angle of attack for the blockers or what, but it seems to be more effective for undersized or under powered lines.  

You are correct.  It is not uncommon, and I am not sure why either.  Maybe because the back gets the ball quicker and deeper in the backfield giving him more time to read the blocking.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-02-2020, 10:23 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I believe this, combined with the addition of XSF and Jonah Williams (and a potential battle at RG with Adeniji and RT with Hart/Johnson), is why the Bengals didn't go after Josh Jones over the WR.  Dalton had a quick release, but his mobility was below average.  He always seemed to vacate to the right and rarely stepped up in to the pocket.  This is one of the characteristics I love most about Burrow is how he shuffles around the pocket avoiding the rush but keeps his cool and his eyes downfield.  

Joe has the great spin move too man where he avoids the rush and goes to the left and throws off his off foot and is still 
accurate. This is one of the best skillsets a QB in the league can have. He has so many talents it is just nuts.

[JSR18]

(05-01-2020, 10:08 PM)grampahol Wrote: At this point what he did at LSU has become irrelevant. Now he's going to be playing against professional football players and not college kids who may or may not make it to the pros. Now he's got to prove he can do it all at the highest level. We'll find out real quick if he's got it or not. I suspect he'll do just fine, but I don't expect he'll walk right in and take the entire league by storm from the first game onwards. I hope he's able to do just that, but I expect a bit of getting used to the level of play by the pro teams as opposed to college.  

I hear what you're saying here and cant argue. Burrow might sneak up on some people until there's some film out there on him to study...

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[Cicero]

(05-03-2020, 03:12 AM)fredtoast Wrote: You are correct.  It is not uncommon, and I am not sure why either.  Maybe because the back gets the ball quicker and deeper in the backfield giving him more time to read the blocking.

Might be a combo of the two. As a Buckeye fan I was skeptical hen Meyer came in talking about a power running attack from the spread shotgun but then we had Elliot and Dobbins and other major programs doing the same thing. I am a football nerd to say the least but I find it really interesting to watch the game evolve.