How much did our defense really improve in second half of last season

[fredtoast]

(06-05-2020, 11:03 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Nah, just a hard time with tired excuse making, and shifting of blame away from where it belongs.

And no thanks on the “highlights.” Watching your boy and his 39.2 rating once was more than enough.

If you really did watch the game you would see that Dalton did not play a single snap on defense.

[*bengalfan74*]

I believe the more correct answer is both. I mean they did improve but playing mostly weaker teams factored in as well.

And another factor that goes into all the stats and numbers is you can't daisy chain games at any level of football, it just doesn't hold true. Team A curb stomps team B. We beat the brakes off team A so we're gonna destroy team B this week. Then we play team B and they take us down to the wire get a turnover and kick the game winning FG as the clock runs out.

Teams line up better skills and scheme wise against some teams than they do others. For example the Steelers could run their 3rd string, practice squad, and cheerleaders out there and hang 39 points on us. Then the next week they're playing a team nearly as bad as us in defensive stats and they lose 17-9.

There's just so many things that factor in.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(06-05-2020, 10:22 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually it makes no difference at all.

If it does then show me.

This is not about "winning records" this is about how our defense performed against opposing offenses based on how good the opposing offense was.  So if you have stats that show mistakes in my analysis please show me the numbers.

Maimi avg 1st half vs 2nd half of season 
12.8 vs 25.4 points 
262 vs 349 yds 

The JETS were missing Rosen for most of the first half and got him back for the second half and ofc. Their numbers improved to. 

5 of their first 8 games were under 223 yards
In second half with Rosen back, 
Lowest game was 259 (vs Pitt, 271 vs Bengals), then there was 2 400, 3 300 games as well. 

I think you get the idea now

[Wes Mantooth]

Fwiw, Pittsburgh was missing both Juju Smith-Schuster (WR1) and James Connor (RB1) for our 2nd matchup. The final Cleveland game was completely meaningless, as they had been eliminated from contention the week prior. They also had a lame-duck coach. To me eye they looked completely uninspired.

I'm not really trying to argue whether or not the defense improved. I'm just pointing out that, among many other things, these are things to at least consider.

[SunsetBengal]

(06-05-2020, 10:51 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Man you must be having hard time lately reading correctly so guess i will point out again your lack of substance in your response.. notice i responded directly to Andy lead to around 21 of those points.. which I pointed out factually he contributed to 10 to 14 depending on how you see it.....  and pointed where our Defense did well (pass) and did not do well (run) Since you seem a bit weak in actually reading a post.. i attached a video for you for highlights .. hopefully that helps you  :andy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OuMXtTalCw&feature=onebox

The turnovers may not have directly resulted in points, but they are demoralizing, especially to a struggling team.  Think of how defeating it had to have been for the defense, to keep getting the ball back, only to have the offense put them right back onto the field..

[Essex Johnson]

(06-05-2020, 11:03 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Nah, just a hard time with tired excuse making, and shifting of blame away from where it belongs.

And no thanks on the “highlights.” Watching your boy and his 39.2 rating once was more than enough.

man you have heavy on opinion and lite on facts. maybe you need to go on a diet..

[Nicomo Cosca]

(06-05-2020, 11:56 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: man you have heavy on opinion and lite on facts. maybe you need to go on a diet..

Andy’s horrendous 39.2 rating against NE is not an opinion, it is a fact. Numbers don’t lie. We can quibble about how bad the defense was that game all we want, but he was the main reason we lost so badly.

[*SHRacerX*]

(06-05-2020, 12:42 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Yes I can do that, and it is significant.  First half of the season we allowed teams to gain over 80 yards more than what they usually do and we only held one opponent below their season average.  Second half of the season we hold 5 of 8 opponents below their season average and only allowed teams on average to gain only 18 yards more than their season average.


To me holding a team whose offense averages over 400 yards a game to 360 yards is a better defensive performance than letting a team whose offense only averages 330 yards a game to gain 350.  The raw total of yards allowed can be deceptive based on how good the opposing offense is.

But when you just look at yards, you can't account for the offense doing a better job sustaining drives (remember how they changed the scheme and the rushing attack was among the best in the NFL down the stretch after being nonexistent in the first half of the season?

I guess if you broke down yards per drive...or maybe factored in time of possession in some way that it would help isolate the defense's improvement outside of the improved offense.  

[fredtoast]

(06-06-2020, 12:46 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote:   We can quibble about how bad the defense was that game all we want, 

"Quibble"?  This ENTIRE THREAD is about how the defense played.

Dalton does not play defense, and you can't blame every score allowedon a player who does not even play defense.

Your obsession with Dalton is a little creepy.  He is gone, man.  Get over it.

[fredtoast]

(06-06-2020, 08:27 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: But when you just look at yards, you can't account for the offense doing a better job sustaining drives (remember how they changed the scheme and the rushing attack was among the best in the NFL down the stretch after being nonexistent in the first half of the season?

I guess if you broke down yards per drive...or maybe factored in time of possession in some way that it would help isolate the defense's improvement outside of the improved offense.  

This is a good point.

The defense was on the field less the second half of the season, but not by a lot.  The first 8 games opponents ran 529 plays which ranked 23rd in the league (fewest plays ranked highest).  The second half of the season opponenets ran 24 fewer plays (505 total) to rank 15th in the league.

But here is the key stat.  Over the first 8 games of the season the Bengals defense was allowing 6.59 yards per play which ranked 32nd in the league, and just like "yards allowed", that would have been the 2nd highest ypp allowed by any defense since the 1970 merger.  Over the last 8 games they allowed over a yard less per play (5.57) to rank 21st.

So some of the decrease in yards allowed was based on facing fewer plays per game, but there was still a huge increase in efficiency per play from one of the worst in history to 21st in the league.

[fredtoast]

(06-05-2020, 05:00 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Maimi avg 1st half vs 2nd half of season 
12.8 vs 25.4 points 
262 vs 349 yds 

The JETS were missing Rosen for most of the first half and got him back for the second half and ofc. Their numbers improved to. 

5 of their first 8 games were under 223 yards
In second half with Rosen back, 
Lowest game was 259 (vs Pitt, 271 vs Bengals), then there was 2 400, 3 300 games as well. 

I think you get the idea now

(06-05-2020, 05:17 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Fwiw, Pittsburgh was missing both Juju Smith-Schuster (WR1) and James Connor (RB1) for our 2nd matchup.  The final Cleveland game was completely meaningless, as they had been eliminated from contention the week prior.  They also had a lame-duck coach.  To me eye they looked completely uninspired.

I'm not really trying to argue whether or not the defense improved.  I'm just pointing out that, among many other things, these are things to at least consider.

Look guys, I could go through every game and find different players missing from the opposing teams, but that is just too impossible to calculate.  Some adjustments would make it look like the defense imroved more, and some would make it look like the defense improved less, but I honestly don't know how to change yardage totals based on offensive players missing or how "inspired" a team happened to "look" from week to week.

Everyone here talks about how teams rank on offense and defense based on their season statistics.  I am using those exact same statistics for my analysis.  If you want to say that all of these stats are not accurate then show me the ones to use.  But just saying "stats are not accurate" doesn't help at all.

[*bengalfan74*]

I'd like to know how many long runs we gave up ? say 12+ yards or something ? I'd bet we were one of the worst in the league.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(06-06-2020, 09:45 AM)fredtoast Wrote: "Quibble"?  This ENTIRE THREAD is about how the defense played.

Dalton does not play defense, and you can't blame every score allowedon a player who does not even play defense.

Your obsession with Dalton is a little creepy.  He is gone, man.  Get over it.

I didn’t bring Dalton up, Truck did. I merely pointed out how ridiculous it was for Essex Johnson to nitpick Truck’s point.

Maybe if you and the rest of the Dalton Gang wouldn’t get so triggered every time someone (rightfully) puts blame on him we could avoid these kind of derailments.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(06-06-2020, 10:19 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Look guys, I could go through every game and find different players missing from the opposing teams, but that is just too impossible to calculate.  Some adjustments would make it look like the defense imroved more, and some would make it look like the defense improved less, but I honestly don't know how to change yardage totals based on offensive players missing or how "inspired" a team happened to "look" from week to week.

Everyone here talks about how teams rank on offense and defense based on their season statistics.  I am using those exact same statistics for my analysis.  If you want to say that all of these stats are not accurate then show me the ones to use.  But just saying "stats are not accurate" doesn't help at all.

I could care less who was hurt or who played uninspired. I was pointing out that a team like the Jets was a different beast in the 2nd 8 games...and vs them. We held them to their lowest score and second lowest yardage output during that stretch. And they also notched a winning record during that stretch, but damage.already done in first half of the season while Rosen was out for 4-6 of those games. 

Again, your trying to compare the Bengals 1st/2nd half of the season vs all others full season. All I'd say is compare all teams equally.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(06-05-2020, 12:42 AM)fredtoast Wrote: What I have done is not a complicated formula.  All I have done is measure our defense's performance based on the offense they were facing.  You will understand what I am saying as I analyze the season.  When I list an opponent's ranking it is final season.

The first game of the season was amazing.  Our defense held the #8 offense in the league (Seattle) to only 232 yards.  That was an incredible 142 yards below the Seahawks' season average.  I still can't explain how well we played, but I remember being shocked at the improvement of our defense from 2018.

Unfortunately over the next 7 weeks we got consistently curb stomped.  We allowed an average of 465 yards per game which was almost 100 yards (99.1) higher than those teams averaged for the season.  And while 3 of those seven teams had top ten offenses (#2 Bal, #4 SF, #7 Rams) none of the other 4 ranked higher than 20 (#30 Pit, #24 Buf, #21 Ari, #20 Jax).

At the half way point of the season we were historically bad.  We were on pace to be the 2nd worst defense since the 1970 merger.  And we really did not face that high of a level of offense.  If you average the rankins of the offenses it is 14.5.  if you look at the average of how much yardage they gained (353.6) it would have ranled 15th in the league.

At this point I will post just the raw numbers and league rankings for each half

1-8.....435.8 ypg....32nd
9-16...351.6 ypg....18th

This is the point were some people say we just looked better because we played weaker offenses while others say we really improved.

First of all, it is true that the teams we faced in the second half had weaker offenses, but not by that much.  The league average for yards gained was 347.9.  Our first eight opponents averaged 353.6 which was 5.7 yards above average and would have ranked 15th.  The eight opponents in the second half averaged 333.4 for the season.  That was almost 15 yards below the league average and would have ranked 24th.  Worse than the first half but not by a lot compared to how much our defense improved.

When you look at the two different halfs and measure them based on opponents offense it is clear that the Defense improved significantly over the second half.  Over the first 8 games the defense was allowing opponents to gain 82 yards above their per game average.  Over the second half the defense allowed opponenets only 18 yards more than they usually gained. Still below average, but a great improvement over the first half trainwreck.

The Seattle game was the only one in the first half where the Bengals held their opponent below their season average.  In the second half the Bengals held 5 of 8 opponents below their season average (Bal, Jets, Pats, Cle X2).  The meltdown against the Dolphins were they gave up over 500 yards to the #27 offense ruined their second half stats.  Other than that game they held their opponents below their season average.

So although I am not ready to give Anarumo a gold star I am certainly starting to feel a little better about him than I did before.  Our defense last year was really, really bad.  But at least they showed signs of getting better.

This along with the players they added this Offseason has me thinking this could be a top 10 Defense this year.

Our Linebacker play was so bad it made the rest of the Defense look bad and the worst players we got rid of and were upgraded
by players that fit Lou's system. We need our Linebackers to be instinctive and we added instinctive good tackling LB's and DB's
along with Reader to free up everyone. The fact that we improved so much should give us all some optimism about the future on
Defense. Hubbard, Pratt, Bates, WJ3, Phillips, Waynes, Alexander, Reader are all in their prime.

Was high on Wilson and ADG before the Draft and was really surprised we were able to pick up Bailey in the 7th round.

And even if you don't like Bynes Fred, he is a good vet to help out the young'uns.

[*SHRacerX*]

(06-06-2020, 10:09 AM)fredtoast Wrote: This is a good point.

The defense was on the field less the second half of the season, but not by a lot.  The first 8 games opponents ran 529 plays which ranked 23rd in the league (fewest plays ranked highest).  The second half of the season opponenets ran 24 fewer plays (505 total) to rank 15th in the league.

But here is the key stat.  Over the first 8 games of the season the Bengals defense was allowing 6.59 yards per play which ranked 32nd in the league, and just like "yards allowed", that would have been the 2nd highest ypp allowed by any defense since the 1970 merger.  Over the last 8 games they allowed over a yard less per play (5.57) to rank 21st.

So some of the decrease in yards allowed was based on facing fewer plays per game, but there was still a huge increase in efficiency per play from one of the worst in history to 21st in the league.

To clarify, did they rank 21st in the NFL for the year with 5.57 YPP or just over the last 8 games?  I only ask because 5.57 still sounds like a really high number.  Do you have where the Chiefs ranked in YPP?  I was thinking all season long that their defense wasn't that great, but that their offense was just rarely stopped.  They really seemed to be able to turn it up when they needed to, though.

It kind of spins me in to another potential topic:  pass rush.  Ours ranked poorly, but the Bengals rarely had much of a lead (and never had a big lead) where the defense gets to tee off on the pass.  I think the Chiefs defense excelled at that situation....who probably wouldn't love to make an offense one-dimensional.  

I bring that up as more potential impact of Burrow and a strong offense on the entire team.  I know most everyone on here is still very cautious about the offensive line, but if Williams is even a decent starter the line should be significantly better than last year.  I won't go all across the line position by position as it has been done many times already, but I think the offense will have a huge impact on not only the number of snaps for the defense, but also potentially helping improve the pass rush.