PFF Performance Improvement Index - 2021

[*ochocincos*]

(03-26-2021, 04:04 PM)bengaloo Wrote: Marvin Lewis once called pff some dumbass website lol. Zimmer has said some things too....
https://thecomeback.com/nfl/pro-football-focus-stick-stats.html

So has Bill Belechunk. Valid points
https://patriotswire.usatoday.com/2018/11/19/bill-belichick-admits-his-limitations-studying-film-challenges-accuracy-of-pro-football-focus/

My point being, PFF has no clue what team improved what, because they dont really know the plays and calls on any given play and how each player may fit into a role for any given team. They can study every single player night and day of every snap 24/7 if they want, but unless they have an actual playbook from each team and know all the audibles, assignments, etc, they are really just guessing. I think pff is fun and interesting, but fans seem to really put a lot of stock in it. We lost a guy who is coming off a 5.5 sack season and gained one who is coming off a 13.5 sack season yet because pff says so, its a downgrade move? I personally cant grasp that. But that's just my opinion. I get it, its fun though, unless it makes people grumpy and pissed for no reason of course lol.

The eye test is still superior most days

A lot to unpack here, but...

1) You're right, PFF does not 100% know what a player's assignment always is. They are using an educated guess (just like fans).
2) You say the eye test is superior but bash PFF's assessment even though PFF literally watches game film to make their assessments? They are literally doing what you say to do...using their eyes.
3) They have enough staff that they are watching every player on every play using All 22 film and stopping and restarting the play over and over to assess. Are you going to that level?

That's why I hold PFF's assessment higher than most fans. They watch (way) more than we do.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-26-2021, 04:04 PM)bengaloo Wrote: Marvin Lewis once called pff some dumbass website lol. Zimmer has said some things too....
https://thecomeback.com/nfl/pro-football-focus-stick-stats.html

So has Bill Belechunk. Valid points
https://patriotswire.usatoday.com/2018/11/19/bill-belichick-admits-his-limitations-studying-film-challenges-accuracy-of-pro-football-focus/

My point being, PFF has no clue what team improved what, because they dont really know the plays and calls on any given play and how each player may fit into a role for any given team. They can study every single player night and day of every snap 24/7 if they want, but unless they have an actual playbook from each team and know all the audibles, assignments, etc, they are really just guessing. I think pff is fun and interesting, but fans seem to really put a lot of stock in it. We lost a guy who is coming off a 5.5 sack season and gained one who is coming off a 13.5 sack season yet because pff says so, its a downgrade move? I personally cant grasp that. But that's just my opinion. I get it, its fun though, unless it makes people grumpy and pissed for no reason of course lol.

The eye test is still superior most days

Nice post Bengaloo. I don't put a lot of stock in PFF but I like to hear their grades, sometimes they are close to what I see,
sometimes they are way the hell off. There are so many factors that go into how a player plays it is good they are around 
though. I like to hear it, just will have to disagree a lot of the time.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-26-2021, 06:11 PM)ochocincos Wrote: A lot to unpack here, but...

1) You're right, PFF does not 100% know what a player's assignment always is. They are using an educated guess (just like fans).
2) You say the eye test is superior but bash PFF's assessment even though PFF literally watches game film to make their assessments? They are literally doing what you say to do...using their eyes.
3) They have enough staff that they are watching every player on every play using All 22 film and stopping and restarting the play over and over to assess. Are you going to that level?

That's why I hold PFF's assessment higher than most fans. They watch (way) more than we do.

What a great job to have, sign me up lol

[Gdale_Bengal]

(03-18-2021, 04:39 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Good stuff here. From the OP and Fred.

Just want to say that just measuring departures vs additions is not the only way to measure improvement. Another is health. We had some important guys miss most/all of the year last year (Reader, Waynes, Topou) or were carrying high salaries and not very productive for various reasons (Dunlap, Atkins, Green).

Getting the former group back in the fold and replacing the latter group with more productive guys should help us.

I know it is a bit of a cheat, but I look at CB like this:

2020: WJ3, Sims, Alexander, Phillips, Brown, Davis.
2021: Waynes, Awuzie, Hilton, Phillips, Brown, Davis.

Awuzie is better than Sims. Hilton/Alexander is a wash. Waynes is an unknown. The rest is the same.

On the D line, we get Reader back. And Topou. Added Ogunjobi. Swapped in Hendrickson for Lawson. Atkins is the unknown. Wren potentially back.

O line being the same is a problem. Most of our starters are reserve quality (or worse). Most of our reserves are not NFL quality. Though some are young. And getting Pollack helps. I'd note Hart was are #2 OL in terms of PFF and our best rum blocker. If he could play RG.....

LT: Sewell
LG: J. Williams (#3 OT)
C: Hopkins
RG: Hart (#4 OT)
RT: Reiff

Backups: G: Su'a Filo; OT/ OG: Adeniji; Draft at C/G top of round 3.

Pick 2 of Jordan, Johnson, Spain, Redmond, more draft picks or FAs to round things out. Cut Price to save $$$. If we sign a legit OG, then cut Hart.

Move Williams back to LT, put XSF at LG, Hopkins, Sewell assuming drafted or Spain since he re-signed, then reiff at RT.

Already better.

[*rfaulk34*]

(03-26-2021, 06:11 PM)ochocincos Wrote: A lot to unpack here, but...

1) You're right, PFF does not 100% know what a player's assignment always is. They are using an educated guess (just like fans).
2) You say the eye test is superior but bash PFF's assessment even though PFF literally watches game film to make their assessments? They are literally doing what you say to do...using their eyes.
3) They have enough staff that they are watching every player on every play using All 22 film and stopping and restarting the play over and over to assess. Are you going to that level?

That's why I hold PFF's assessment higher than most fans. They watch (way) more than we do.

Yup. I don't watch nearly as much as they do but i watch a hell of a lot more than the average fan and while i don't hold their grades up as indisputable, i question them rarely. I don't give 2 shits what others feel about them because the vast majority of the time they (fans) don't know what the hell they're talking about. Yeah, "eye test". Uhhhhh, helloooooooooo, that's what PFF does and they don't just have one guy watching film from each game. It's watched by 2 different people and if there's a dispute with the grades, a third person watches and the majority (2 out of 3) is what is used. 

As far as people claiming, 'how can they know what they're supposed to do?'. Once again, uhhhhh,helloooooooo, they're not supposed to know what they're supposed to do. You know what they do know? That LG just ran straight ahead and attempted to block the MIKE and whiffed on him. It's not rocket surgery* to discern what a player is attempting to do and you DON'T need to know what they're SUPPOSED to do, because they're not grading on that. They're grading on what the player ATTEMPTS to do. 

So go right ahead, doubting debbies*, and continue to poopoo what they're doing because they're doing a hell of a lot more than you are and they're trying to HELP YOU evaluate players and how they perform. 

* = yes, i did that on purpose.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-26-2021, 06:40 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: What a great job to have, sign me up lol

You say until you realize that means you need to not just watch but rewatch and pay close attention to full seasons worth of plays of players like Cedric Ogbuehi, Ryan Finley, Leshaun Sims, etc. But probably not even for the Bengals who you have a vested interest in, but that caliber of players for like the Jags or the Jets.

[*Synric*]

(03-26-2021, 04:04 PM)bengaloo Wrote: Marvin Lewis once called pff some dumbass website lol. Zimmer has said some things too....
https://thecomeback.com/nfl/pro-football-focus-stick-stats.html

So has Bill Belechunk. Valid points
https://patriotswire.usatoday.com/2018/11/19/bill-belichick-admits-his-limitations-studying-film-challenges-accuracy-of-pro-football-focus/

My point being, PFF has no clue what team improved what, because they dont really know the plays and calls on any given play and how each player may fit into a role for any given team. They can study every single player night and day of every snap 24/7 if they want, but unless they have an actual playbook from each team and know all the audibles, assignments, etc, they are really just guessing. I think pff is fun and interesting, but fans seem to really put a lot of stock in it. We lost a guy who is coming off a 5.5 sack season and gained one who is coming off a 13.5 sack season yet because pff says so, its a downgrade move? I personally cant grasp that. But that's just my opinion. I get it, its fun though, unless it makes people grumpy and pissed for no reason of course lol.

The eye test is still superior most days

PFF does the same thing Coaches at all levels (including high school) do everyweek. Anyone with the knowledge can breakdown plays and see the player assignments.

[SuperBowlBound!]

(03-26-2021, 04:04 PM)bengaloo Wrote: Marvin Lewis once called pff some dumbass website lol. Zimmer has said some things too....
https://thecomeback.com/nfl/pro-football-focus-stick-stats.html

So has Bill Belechunk. Valid points
https://patriotswire.usatoday.com/2018/11/19/bill-belichick-admits-his-limitations-studying-film-challenges-accuracy-of-pro-football-focus/

My point being, PFF has no clue what team improved what, because they dont really know the plays and calls on any given play and how each player may fit into a role for any given team. They can study every single player night and day of every snap 24/7 if they want, but unless they have an actual playbook from each team and know all the audibles, assignments, etc, they are really just guessing. I think pff is fun and interesting, but fans seem to really put a lot of stock in it. We lost a guy who is coming off a 5.5 sack season and gained one who is coming off a 13.5 sack season yet because pff says so, its a downgrade move? I personally cant grasp that. But that's just my opinion. I get it, its fun though, unless it makes people grumpy and pissed for no reason of course lol.

The eye test is still superior most days

This is so true. They should also analyze if the player's new team/coach Offensive/Defensive scheme is better/worse suited for their skill set. Okunjobi may be in a better fit playing the 3 technique this year compared to nose last year. You would also need to somehow be able to evaluate a players attitude going to a new team like a Dunlap and vice versa the attitude of the Bengals starting fresh and not having Dunlap/Green/Atkins possibly not happy in their roles. There is so much more that goes on than what you see on film. I have seen the Bengals line letting unimpeded paths to the QB because the C/G/T apparently were not on same page with assignments. Hopefully that gets fixed with Pollack. I would love to sit in on their Monday Morning review of Sundays game tape to see who really missed assignments. 

[Luvnit2]

I think those who watched Alexander came away he was better than the stats show. This is from ESPN article about he signing with Vikes again,

"Alexander's advanced metrics were in the middle of the pack among others who primarily play slot cornerback. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Alexander had a 68.4 completion percentage when he was the nearest defender, which was 2% worse than expected. He also had a 45.6% coverage success rate, which was just under the league average for qualifying slot cornerbacks."

Based on these stats, It appears Hilton may be a huge upgrade in the slot. It is yet to be seen if Waynes is a wash, upgrade or downgrade versus Jackson in 2021.

I also think based on pure stats, the DT we signed along with a healthy Reader is also a clear upgrade in the middle of the DL if factor in poor year Atkins had in 2020.

I am not sure what we do at WR to replace Green, but again based on 2020 (not AJ in his prime), we should be able to upgrade AJ's wide receiver position.

So in the end, after FA and then adding in the draft, adding Burrow playing 17 games (hopefully), we are a much improved team.
I still wish we would trade for Ertz to team with Uzomah and Sample and Schreck. I think he is a complete TE that would help Burrow and the running game also.

[bengaloo]

(03-27-2021, 07:00 AM)Synric Wrote: PFF does the same thing Coaches at all levels (including high school) do everyweek. Anyone with the knowledge can breakdown plays and see the player assignments.

So if a WR runs a route and cuts inside, but the QB throws outside, which one was at fault? Did the WR run the wrong route or the QB throw to the wrong spot? How would you know that without having the playbook and knowing what play was called? You cant, really, without the playbook and knowing the call that team made on the field. So who does PFF give the worse grade to, the QB or the WR? Dont get me wrong, I enjoy the PFF stuff, but I enjoy it knowing that its not entirely accurate all the time. Sometimes they probably nail it, other times they probably get it wrong. 

Direct quote from Bill B when talking about PFF
“In terms of analytics, you get a lot of, ‘This guy should have him. That guy should have him.’ I know from our team, there are times when we don’t know exactly what went wrong until we sort out the play,” Belichick said on WEEI. “So it’s impossible someone else could have known. Sometimes what it looks like is not what it is.” And the blame game can change the way players finish plays, which can impact how a player is judged on that play. If a pass catcher gets behind the defense, a cornerback might pull off because they don’t want it to look like it’s their blown assignment.“We get it wrong, too. We’re watching another team on film, and we’ve seen all their plays and we’re still not even sure who was supposed to do what,” Belichick said.

But what really opened my eyes to PFF is when they gave Billy Price an 18.8 pass blocking grade against the Titans, which was his only start at C and the only time he played C 100% of the snaps. Burrow didnt get sacked that day for the first time all season, and Price got an 18 pff pass block grade? Pfffffft. That is when I began to realize how far off PFF can be. You can watch that entire game online right now. I have it DVR'd. Price played a very good game on all fronts outside of one bad snap early in the game. Watch the game and tell me how he gets a pass block grade that low. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(03-27-2021, 10:43 AM)bengaloo Wrote: So if a WR runs a route and cuts inside, but the QB throws outside, which one was at fault? Did the WR run the wrong route or the QB throw to the wrong spot? How would you know that without having the playbook and knowing what play was called? You cant, really, without the playbook and knowing the call that team made on the field. So who does PFF give the worse grade to, the QB or the WR? Dont get me wrong, I enjoy the PFF stuff, but I enjoy it knowing that its not entirely accurate all the time. Sometimes they probably nail it, other times they probably get it wrong. 

Direct quote from Bill B when talking about PFF
“In terms of analytics, you get a lot of, ‘This guy should have him. That guy should have him.’ I know from our team, there are times when we don’t know exactly what went wrong until we sort out the play,” Belichick said on WEEI. “So it’s impossible someone else could have known. Sometimes what it looks like is not what it is.” And the blame game can change the way players finish plays, which can impact how a player is judged on that play. If a pass catcher gets behind the defense, a cornerback might pull off because they don’t want it to look like it’s their blown assignment.“We get it wrong, too. We’re watching another team on film, and we’ve seen all their plays and we’re still not even sure who was supposed to do what,” Belichick said.

But what really opened my eyes to PFF is when they gave Billy Price an 18.8 pass blocking grade against the Titans, which was his only start at C and the only time he played C 100% of the snaps. Burrow didnt get sacked that day for the first time all season, and Price got an 18 pff pass block grade? Pfffffft. That is when I began to realize how far off PFF can be. You can watch that entire game online right now. I have it DVR'd. Price played a very good game on all fronts outside of one bad snap early in the game. Watch the game and tell me how he gets a pass block grade that low. 

YOU DON’T KNOW THE PLAY CALL?

We are certainly not in the huddle, but we are grading what a player attempts to do on a given play. While football is extremely nuanced regarding the preparation and adjustments that go into each play call, once the ball is snapped, most players are clear in what they’re trying to accomplish on each play, and we evaluate accordingly. Of course, there are always some gray areas in football. Plays in which there is a clear question mark regarding assignment, we can defer to a “0” grade and not guess as to which player is right or wrong. These plays are few and far between and since we are grading every snap, missing out on a handful throughout the year should not affect player evaluations. Examples of potential gray areas include coverage busts, quarterback/wide receiver miscommunications and missed blocking assignments. 


https://www.pff.com/grades

[*rfaulk34*]

(03-27-2021, 10:43 AM)bengaloo Wrote: So if a WR runs a route and cuts inside, but the QB throws outside, which one was at fault? Did the WR run the wrong route or the QB throw to the wrong spot? How would you know that without having the playbook and knowing what play was called? You cant, really, without the playbook and knowing the call that team made on the field. So who does PFF give the worse grade to, the QB or the WR? Dont get me wrong, I enjoy the PFF stuff, but I enjoy it knowing that its not entirely accurate all the time. Sometimes they probably nail it, other times they probably get it wrong. 

Direct quote from Bill B when talking about PFF
“In terms of analytics, you get a lot of, ‘This guy should have him. That guy should have him.’ I know from our team, there are times when we don’t know exactly what went wrong until we sort out the play,” Belichick said on WEEI. “So it’s impossible someone else could have known. Sometimes what it looks like is not what it is.” And the blame game can change the way players finish plays, which can impact how a player is judged on that play. If a pass catcher gets behind the defense, a cornerback might pull off because they don’t want it to look like it’s their blown assignment.“We get it wrong, too. We’re watching another team on film, and we’ve seen all their plays and we’re still not even sure who was supposed to do what,” Belichick said.

But what really opened my eyes to PFF is when they gave Billy Price an 18.8 pass blocking grade against the Titans, which was his only start at C and the only time he played C 100% of the snaps. Burrow didnt get sacked that day for the first time all season, and Price got an 18 pff pass block grade? Pfffffft. That is when I began to realize how far off PFF can be. You can watch that entire game online right now. I have it DVR'd. Price played a very good game on all fronts outside of one bad snap early in the game. Watch the game and tell me how he gets a pass block grade that low.

I've already done this once before, but i'll go back and do it again later tonight.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-27-2021, 04:16 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: You say until you realize that means you need to not just watch but rewatch and pay close attention to full seasons worth of plays of players like Cedric Ogbuehi, Ryan Finley, Leshaun Sims, etc. But probably not even for the Bengals who you have a vested interest in, but that caliber of players for like the Jags or the Jets.

Sounds a lot funner then working out in 20 below weather in the winter like I have to do...

[*Synric*]

(03-27-2021, 10:43 AM)bengaloo Wrote: So if a WR runs a route and cuts inside, but the QB throws outside, which one was at fault? Did the WR run the wrong route or the QB throw to the wrong spot? How would you know that without having the playbook and knowing what play was called? You cant, really, without the playbook and knowing the call that team made on the field. So who does PFF give the worse grade to, the QB or the WR? Dont get me wrong, I enjoy the PFF stuff, but I enjoy it knowing that its not entirely accurate all the time. Sometimes they probably nail it, other times they probably get it wrong. 

Direct quote from Bill B when talking about PFF
“In terms of analytics, you get a lot of, ‘This guy should have him. That guy should have him.’ I know from our team, there are times when we don’t know exactly what went wrong until we sort out the play,” Belichick said on WEEI. “So it’s impossible someone else could have known. Sometimes what it looks like is not what it is.” And the blame game can change the way players finish plays, which can impact how a player is judged on that play. If a pass catcher gets behind the defense, a cornerback might pull off because they don’t want it to look like it’s their blown assignment.“We get it wrong, too. We’re watching another team on film, and we’ve seen all their plays and we’re still not even sure who was supposed to do what,” Belichick said.

But what really opened my eyes to PFF is when they gave Billy Price an 18.8 pass blocking grade against the Titans, which was his only start at C and the only time he played C 100% of the snaps. Burrow didnt get sacked that day for the first time all season, and Price got an 18 pff pass block grade? Pfffffft. That is when I began to realize how far off PFF can be. You can watch that entire game online right now. I have it DVR'd. Price played a very good game on all fronts outside of one bad snap early in the game. Watch the game and tell me how he gets a pass block grade that low. 

PFF does exactly what Belichick does every week.

Chris Collinsworth hired former players and coaches to review tape and grade players. I don't always like or agree with the grades but I respect them nonetheless because they have the experience.