How good can Tee Higgins be?

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-21-2021, 09:19 AM)fredtoast Wrote: That "Separation" stat is silly.  Drew Sample finished SIXTH BEST IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE.  So if you want to live by "hard facts" let me hear you sing the praises of Drew Sample.

If you look at the numbers Both Boyd and Higgins have numbers exactly like or even better than many of the best WRs in the league.  Meanwhile many of the players on the top of the list are nobodies.

There does not seem to be any correlation between "separation" and "production".  So the stat is meaningless.

I've been arguing against that stupid separation debate since the moment i came out of my mommas vageen. It's one of the most useless (non) indicators ever created and studied.

[*rfaulk34*]

If you want to argue that the Bengals don't have a receiver, since AJ is gone, that can consistently beat a defender down the field, i won't dispute it...kind of.

Boyd has been in the league long enough and hasn't shown an ability to get open deep. Higgins is still too young to make that statement on. 

[Whatever]

(04-21-2021, 03:06 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: So you're goin to look at numbers alone and make a decision. I don't work that way. I take as much data as i can find, including what actually happens on the field, that i see with my eye and make a decision based on that.

Looks like i'm gonna have to buy some software that will allow me to create a clip of all the times they created separation and caught a pass...

I watched all the games, too.  The numbers back up what I saw when I watched the games.

There's a reason why both guys fell off a cliff when Burrow went down.  Our backups can't stick it in to covered guys like Burrow can.  That's just reality.  

So you're going to make a highlight reel?  Because that's a good way to judge players.  

I'll save you the time and money and just bow out of the discussion now.  If you're wrong, you won't admit you're wrong, anyways, so discussing it with you it totally pointless.

[fredtoast]

(04-21-2021, 06:55 PM)Whatever Wrote: There's a reason why both guys fell off a cliff when Burrow went down.  Our backups can't stick it in to covered guys like Burrow can.  That's just reality.  

This is the silliest logic I have ever heard.  even teams with great WRs will see their numbers drop when they are forced to go with a back up QB.

If receivers controlled the success of the passing game then QBs would not be paid all the big money.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If we want to be fogeys and resist newfangled statistics, then we can also use our eyeballs.

Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd both look quite capable in the roles they're meant to play. Clearly though they are not going to be consistently effective in generating downfield separation.

[Essex Johnson]

(04-21-2021, 06:55 PM)Whatever Wrote: I watched all the games, too.  The numbers back up what I saw when I watched the games.

There's a reason why both guys fell off a cliff when Burrow went down.  Our backups can't stick it in to covered guys like Burrow can.  That's just reality.  

So you're going to make a highlight reel?  Because that's a good way to judge players.  

I'll save you the time and money and just bow out of the discussion now.  If you're wrong, you won't admit you're wrong, anyways, so discussing it with you it totally pointless.

I'm trying to figure out your reference to falling off cliff, higgins should have dropped off without Burrow but if you look at production he averaged 5 catches similar to with Burrow and about same avg TDs, he was down in yards per game so taking in account of losing Burrow I dont agree he fell off a cliff. I'm not counting last game since he got hurt like 1st series.

[*jason*]

(04-21-2021, 06:55 PM)Whatever Wrote: I watched all the games, too.  The numbers back up what I saw when I watched the games.

There's a reason why both guys fell off a cliff when Burrow went down.  Our backups can't stick it in to covered guys like Burrow can.  That's just reality.  

So you're going to make a highlight reel?  Because that's a good way to judge players.  

I'll save you the time and money and just bow out of the discussion now.  If you're wrong, you won't admit you're wrong, anyways, so discussing it with you it totally pointless.

Tee Higgins didn't exactly fall off a cliff after Burrow went down. He didn't do squat with Finley under center, but nobody did. His numbers dropped a little without Burrow, but the guy was reasonably steady for a rookie playing with trash QBs, a trash O line, and a trash offensive scheme.

Shit... Essex beat me to it.

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-21-2021, 06:55 PM)Whatever Wrote: I watched all the games, too.  The numbers back up what I saw when I watched the games.

There's a reason why both guys fell off a cliff when Burrow went down.  Our backups can't stick it in to covered guys like Burrow can.  That's just reality.  

So you're going to make a highlight reel?  Because that's a good way to judge players.  

I'll save you the time and money and just bow out of the discussion now.  If you're wrong, you won't admit you're wrong, anyways, so discussing it with you it totally pointless.

I always admit when i'm wrong. 


It's just that it happens so infrequently. 

[yang]

(04-22-2021, 12:33 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I always admit when i'm wrong. 


It's just that it happens so infrequently. 

I think we get it.  You prefer WR’s with cornerbacks draped over them.   A lot of us like the ones that can get away from those guys, at least a little. 

[fredtoast]

(04-22-2021, 08:50 AM)yang Wrote: I think we get it.  You prefer WR’s with cornerbacks draped over them.   A lot of us like the ones that can get away from those guys, at least a little. 

Can you explain how Boyd has been the best 4th down receiver and a top 3 third down receiver in the league over the last three years if he can't get open?

The claims that these guys can't get open just is not true.  It is a popular message board myth similar to "Justin Smith is a bust who would not start on most other teams.  All he does is jump on the pile to get tackle stats" or "Whitworth can't handle speed rushers and needs to be moved back to oG" or "Leon Hall is too slow to play CB" or "Domata Peko plays on roller skates." 

[TJ528]

(04-21-2021, 07:39 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: If we want to be fogeys and resist newfangled statistics, then we can also use our eyeballs.

Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd both look quite capable in the roles they're meant to play. Clearly though they are not going to be consistently effective in generating downfield separation.

This is why i struggle in the thought of drafting Sewell or Chase.  

This team struggles on the OL and the QB can't throw down the field w/o time in the pocket.  

Could it be that Burrow couldnt hit on any deep passes last year because he didnt have time in the pocket to let the play downfield develop?  

Then i look at our WR.  We IMO don't have a true #1 receiver.  We have 2 very good receivers.  Tate on any other team would be a 5th or 6th receiver sorry.  

This team needs a player with speed.  Basically a guy like John Ross but who can run routes and catch the ball...oh yea and stay healthy. 

There's no players on this team that can do that right now.   

[Housh]

Tee is likely as good as he’s ever going to be right now. He’s not gonna get faster or develop Chad Johnson like feet. He’s a good WR and likely will be for a decade. No problem with that. Mohammad Sanu made a good career of it

[Shake n Blake]

(04-19-2021, 09:11 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Not like we have not heard a player won;t be there and is... happens every year.. so we can't say for certain.. i agree he seems to be moving into late 1st round on some boards but ive seen others that have him in 2nd round... but no matter there are other fine WRs that most likely will be there at 38.. 

On a side note ive noticed more Oline going in 1st round on boards than before so that might be thinner than we think at 38 

I think it's so funny that everyone conveniently assumes all good WRs will be off the board by the 38th pick. Gotta be the first draft that's ever happened.

(04-20-2021, 05:42 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I have game pass and i went back and watched TnT, isolated on all 22, on the routes they ran. The majority of the time, they don't have trouble getting separation. Neither one was asked all that often to try and just run by someone but they didn't have trouble getting open on the vast majority of routes they ran last year. 

Yep...and tbh Higgins doesn't NEED as much separation because he's elite at contested catches.

(04-20-2021, 10:40 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Yep. 

There's not a lot of speed on offense right now but that's different than if the receivers can get open consistently. 

Exactly. The pro-Chase crowd wants to make it into an overall separation issue because that makes the need seem bigger than it really is. You can get a Chris Henry style WR (whose purpose is take the top off the defense, but not necessarily to be a WR1 or even WR2) later in the draft.

In order to justify Chase at 5, they need to make it seem like Higgins and Boyd are incapable players and all routes are being affected by lack of separation.

(04-22-2021, 09:41 AM)Housh Wrote: Tee is likely as good as he’s ever going to be right now. He’s not gonna get faster or develop Chad Johnson like feet. He’s a good WR and likely will be for a decade. No problem with that. Mohammad Sanu made a good career of it

Anquan Boldin didnt have any of those things and was much better than Mo Sanu. Heck, Higgins rookie season smoked anything Sanu ever did.

[TJ528]

(04-22-2021, 12:06 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I think it's so funny that everyone conveniently assumes all good WRs will be off the board by the 38th pick. Gotta be the first draft that's ever happened.


Yep...and tbh Higgins doesn't NEED as much separation because he's elite at contested catches.


Exactly. The pro-Chase crowd wants to make it into an overall separation issue because that makes the need seem bigger than it really is. You can get a Chris Henry style WR (whose purpose is take the top off the defense, but not necessarily to be a WR1 or even WR2) later in the draft.

In order to justify Chase at 5, they need to make it seem like Higgins and Boyd are incapable players and all routes are being affected by lack of separation.


Anquan Boldin didnt have any of those things and was much better than Mo Sanu. Heck, Higgins rookie season smoked anything Sanu ever did.

If you want to compare though, what weapons were on that team with Sanu?  You had Marvin Jones, AJ Green, Tyler Eiffort, and Jermaine Gresham in 2014.  So lets compare those to the weapons the Bengals had in 2020.  So equal to AJ Green I guess maybe we can say Tyler Boyd?  So who are we goign to say is equal to Marvin Jones? Maybe Tate?  I mean can we say Sample is equal to Eiffort or Gresham?  

If you look at what the QB had to throw to last year I'm actually shocked Higgins didnt have more than 1,000 yards.  The receiving corp was him and Boyd...that's it.   Sanu didnt have the numbers Higgins did because of the talent around him and the numbers were spread out.  

[fredtoast]

(04-22-2021, 09:41 AM)Housh Wrote: Tee is likely as good as he’s ever going to be right now. He’s not gonna get faster or develop Chad Johnson like feet. He’s a good WR and likely will be for a decade. No problem with that. Mohammad Sanu made a good career of it

Yeah right. I mean history has proven that NFL players never improve over their rookie seasons.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-22-2021, 12:18 PM)TJ528 Wrote: If you want to compare though, what weapons were on that team with Sanu?  You had Marvin Jones, AJ Green, Tyler Eiffort, and Jermaine Gresham in 2014.  So lets compare those to the weapons the Bengals had in 2020.  So equal to AJ Green I guess maybe we can say Tyler Boyd?  So who are we goign to say is equal to Marvin Jones? Maybe Tate?  I mean can we say Sample is equal to Eiffort or Gresham?  

If you look at what the QB had to throw to last year I'm actually shocked Higgins didnt have more than 1,000 yards.  The receiving corp was him and Boyd...that's it.   Sanu didnt have the numbers Higgins did because of the talent around him and the numbers were spread out.  

Marvin Jones missed the entire 2014 season, and AJ Green missed 3 games (essentially 4 because he was used as a decoy in the Denver game). Sanu still only produced 790 yards and 5 scores.

Higgins is not Mo Sanu. Sanu has averaged 11.2 yards/catch for his career, with exactly one season over 12.5 yards/catch in 11 seasons. Higgins just averaged 13.6 yards/catch in his only season.

Is this what people really think of Higgins? Or are people trashing him because they want Chase?

[CrowFoot]

(04-22-2021, 12:18 PM)TJ528 Wrote: If you want to compare though, what weapons were on that team with Sanu?  You had Marvin Jones, AJ Green, Tyler Eiffort, and Jermaine Gresham in 2014.  So lets compare those to the weapons the Bengals had in 2020.  So equal to AJ Green I guess maybe we can say Tyler Boyd?  So who are we goign to say is equal to Marvin Jones? Maybe Tate?  I mean can we say Sample is equal to Eiffort or Gresham?  

If you look at what the QB had to throw to last year I'm actually shocked Higgins didnt have more than 1,000 yards.  The receiving corp was him and Boyd...that's it.   Sanu didnt have the numbers Higgins did because of the talent around him and the numbers were spread out.  

I read this the other way. If Sanu was surrounded by better talent, then he likely was covered by lesser talent on defense.

In 2014, 3rd year Sanu had 56 receptions on 98 targets (ie, catching 57%)

In 2020, 1st year Higgens caught 67 receptions on 108 targets (ie, catching 62%)

The difference here isn't earth shattering, but I'm inclined to pick the latter stat line as more impressive.

[*jason*]

(04-22-2021, 12:18 PM)TJ528 Wrote: If you want to compare though, what weapons were on that team with Sanu?  You had Marvin Jones, AJ Green, Tyler Eiffort, and Jermaine Gresham in 2014.  So lets compare those to the weapons the Bengals had in 2020.  So equal to AJ Green I guess maybe we can say Tyler Boyd?  So who are we goign to say is equal to Marvin Jones? Maybe Tate?  I mean can we say Sample is equal to Eiffort or Gresham?  

If you look at what the QB had to throw to last year I'm actually shocked Higgins didnt have more than 1,000 yards.  The receiving corp was him and Boyd...that's it.   Sanu didnt have the numbers Higgins did because of the talent around him and the numbers were spread out.  

In 2014 Marvin Jones and Eifert both missed essentially all of the season. AJ Green missed more than a game or 2 if I'm not mistaken as well. There were more than one Greg Little sightings that season.

I don't think Higgins and Sanu are on remotely the same level as far as any of this goes.

[*rfaulk34*]

(04-21-2021, 12:08 AM)Benton Wrote: From those clips, I'd say it was Xeno. On most of those, it's not that the WR isn't getting a step away, it's the defender is running the exact same route. There's some over throws (meh, Burrow was a rookie), but everything else in the clip from :35 seconds on is like the defenders were working out of the same playbook.

There's a lot of in and out cutting routes and a lot of hook routes. Those are a death knell for separation. That's why it's a useless stat. 

People can be my guest and study it all they want but they better check the types of routes that are run to see how it applies to each individual player. 

If Bengals receivers were running a lot of 7s, 8s and 9s and weren't getting enough space from the defender to be effective, then it's a problem but the Bengals don't run all that many of those routes. 

[JaggedJimmyJay]

(04-22-2021, 09:06 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Can you explain how Boyd has been the best 4th down receiver and a top 3 third down receiver in the league over the last three years if he can't get open?

The claims that these guys can't get open just is not true.  It is a popular message board myth similar to "Justin Smith is a bust who would not start on most other teams.  All he does is jump on the pile to get tackle stats" or "Whitworth can't handle speed rushers and needs to be moved back to oG" or "Leon Hall is too slow to play CB" or "Domata Peko plays on roller skates." 

This is rather obtuse. Possession receivers can obviously get open and make catches. That’s why they exist. Boyd is one of the best in the league in his role. Everyone knows that.

But he’s not going to consistently generate separation on vertical routes. That’s not some controversial statement; it’s not reliant upon any statistic, and it’s not message board nonsense. It’s readily apparent.

Not all receivers who catch a lot of passes do so in the same manner, and not all contribute to offensive efficiency or efficacy in the same manner. Treating this dialogue otherwise is deliberately dense and serves little purpose beyond arguing for one’s own entertainment.