My final pre-draft thoughts on Chase/Sewell

[Shake n Blake]

Obviously no minds are going to be changed here, but I want to get it all out of my system and try to enjoy the week leading up to the draft without spending the next week arguing. So here goes.

My reasons for taking Sewell at 5...

1. Joe Burrow's health. People keep trying to minimize this, but we all saw what happened last year, and Joe will be playing on an injured knee this year. Perhaps with a brace. Yes, freak injuries happen. What happened last year wasn't "freak" though. We ALL saw it coming. Yes, it can happen again even with a good line, but clearly the chances are lower if Burrow takes less hits. This isn't complicated.

2. Yes, we can get a lineman anywhere in the draft, but people need to be honest. Sewell is the best prospect we can get our hands on. There is a substantial dropoff in caliber when you get to round 2. Sewell WILL start...probably at Right Tackle (Reiff moving inside). This nonsense that we wouldn't start the 5th overall pick is...nonsense.

3. Tee Higgins. Regardless of how you feel about his potential, he showed a lot in his rookie season. The reasonable decision is to at least let this guy have a chance to fill the #1 role before dismissing him entirely by taking Chase. If it later becomes clear that he isn't a WR1, then we can take a WR next year. We don't have that luxury with the line. It needs an elite player NOW.

If we take Chase and Higgins continues to rise, we will NOT be able to pay Chase and Higgins in a 2 year span. Too much money on one position. Some live in the now, so I doubt they care, but long term, this stuff matters.

4. Not enough balls to go around. If Mixon is healthy, we will not continue throwing 40 times a game. When people just look at AJ Green's outgoing targets, they are failing to consider this. So if Chase and Higgins see 100+ targets, Boyd and his $10 million cap hit are going to get squeezed a bit. He's going to go from 850 yards to say...500. Massive overpay. May as well trade the guy.

5. The overall impact on the offense. It's not just about health. When you have elite blocking up front, Suddenly 3rd and 7 becomes 3rd and 1. Suddenly you don't have to throw on 3rd and 2. More time to throw deep. Opens up the playbook. Run game threat brings the safeties up and you can throw over the top. Separation stat "magically" improves.

Yes you can get a good blocker later, but again, don't be obtuse. If you REALLY want all of the above, Sewell is the best choice in this draft - by a country mile - over the round 2 guys.

6. There are speed guys with potential available in round 2. Yes there is a huge dropoff, but I think even the Chase people admit that our need on the line is more dire than our need at WR. So if we're gambling with that round 2 guy, why gamble with the bigger need? Is Chase that much better than Sewell to justify it? Because they look pretty equal to most.

---------------------

I take ALL of the above into consideration and it seems like an easy card to turn in. Now if we roll with Chase, life won't be over for me. Chase is a fantastic player and maybe that round 2 lineman will pan out. Hopefully we take a round 2 lineman, because our history shows us taking more linemen in rounds 3, 4 and 5.

I won't be responding here. This is officially my last post on this until after the draft.

I'll leave you with this blurb from Peter King:

5. CINCINNATI. How the Bengals don’t take Oregon tackle Penei Sewell is beyond me, especially because this draft is filthy-rich in receivers—as with every recent draft. But I also hear the drumbeat is loud for Ja’Marr Chase, who made such beautiful music with Joe Burrow in 2019 at LSU (average game: 127 receiving yards, 21.2 yards per catch). Clearly, I’d vote for the Joe Burrow Preservation Plan, and start this draft tackle at 5, guard at 38. Burrow’s good enough, if he has time, to win with Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and a lesser third option (Rondale Moore?).

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/18/nfl-draft-rumors-fmia-peter-king/

[shanebo]

Well put. I agree with this post 100%.

I personally think Sewell is the better option, but would be fine with Sewell, Chase, or Pitts at 5. Probably would be pissed at anything else, though -- e.g., trading back and missing out on one of these three guys; picking someone else at 5 would def set me off ...

[fredtoast]

I am not going to re-state my arguments for Sewell. All I am going to say is that I want him, but I won't be upset if we take Chase as long as we go O-line at #38.

[Murdock2420]

(04-23-2021, 02:34 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Obviously no minds are going to be changed here, but I want to get it all out of my system and try to enjoy the week leading up to the draft without spending the next week arguing. So here goes.

My reasons for taking Sewell at 5...

1. Joe Burrow's health. People keep trying to minimize this, but we all saw what happened last year, and Joe will be playing on an injured knee this year. Perhaps with a brace. Yes, freak injuries happen. What happened last year wasn't "freak" though. We ALL saw it coming. Yes, it can happen again even with a good line, but clearly the chances are lower if Burrow takes less hits. This isn't complicated.

2. Yes, we can get a lineman anywhere in the draft, but people need to be honest. Sewell is the best prospect we can get our hands on. There is a substantial dropoff in caliber when you get to round 2. Sewell WILL start...probably at Right Tackle (Reiff moving inside). This nonsense that we wouldn't start the 5th overall pick is...nonsense.

3. Tee Higgins. Regardless of how you feel about his potential, he showed a lot in his rookie season. The reasonable decision is to at least let this guy have a chance to fill the #1 role before dismissing him entirely by taking Chase. If it later becomes clear that he isn't a WR1, then we can take a WR next year. We don't have that luxury with the line. It needs an elite player NOW.

If we take Chase and Higgins continues to rise, we will NOT be able to pay Chase and Higgins in a 2 year span. Too much money on one position. Some live in the now, so I doubt they care, but long term, this stuff matters.

4. Not enough balls to go around. If Mixon is healthy, we will not continue throwing 40 times a game. When people just look at AJ Green's outgoing targets, they are failing to consider this. So if Chase and Higgins see 100+ targets, Boyd and his $10 million cap hit are going to get squeezed a bit. He's going to go from 850 yards to say...500. Massive overpay. May as well trade the guy.

5. The overall impact on the offense. It's not just about health. When you have elite blocking up front, Suddenly 3rd and 7 becomes 3rd and 1. Suddenly you don't have to throw on 3rd and 2. More time to throw deep. Opens up the playbook. Run game threat brings the safeties up and you can throw over the top. Separation stat "magically" improves.

Yes you can get a good blocker later, but again, don't be obtuse. If you REALLY want all of the above, Sewell is the best choice in this draft - by a country mile - over the round 2 guys.

6. There are speed guys with potential available in round 2. Yes there is a huge dropoff, but I think even the Chase people admit that our need on the line is more dire than our need at WR. So if we're gambling with that round 2 guy, why gamble with the bigger need? Is Chase that much better than Sewell to justify it? Because they look pretty equal to most.

---------------------

I take ALL of the above into consideration and it seems like an easy card to turn in. Now if we roll with Chase, life won't be over for me. Chase is a fantastic player and maybe that round 2 lineman will pan out. Hopefully we take a round 2 lineman, because our history shows us taking more linemen in rounds 3, 4 and 5.

I won't be responding here. This is officially my last post on this until after the draft.

I'll leave you with this blurb from Peter King:

5. CINCINNATI. How the Bengals don’t take Oregon tackle Penei Sewell is beyond me, especially because this draft is filthy-rich in receivers—as with every recent draft. But I also hear the drumbeat is loud for Ja’Marr Chase, who made such beautiful music with Joe Burrow in 2019 at LSU (average game: 127 receiving yards, 21.2 yards per catch). Clearly, I’d vote for the Joe Burrow Preservation Plan, and start this draft tackle at 5, guard at 38. Burrow’s good enough, if he has time, to win with Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and a lesser third option (Rondale Moore?).

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/18/nfl-draft-rumors-fmia-peter-king/

I don't see how anyone can read this and disagree.. 

Well except Steeler fans who want us to leave Burrow exposed.

[Clark W Griswold]

(04-23-2021, 02:56 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I am not going to re-state my arguments for Sewell. All I am going to say is that I want him, but I won't be upset if we take Chase as long as we go O-line at #38.

I have been leaning towards Chase lately but now I will be OK either way. They can get a good G or WR in the second round.

I understand the importance of the O line but an early round guard (or guards) plus Reiff is still a big upgrade from last year’s trash O line.

Sewell and a WR in the second also helps the team fill needs and protect Burrow. I am now just looking forward to watching the draft and seeing what route they take. Either way I am good with it as long as they fill the spots they need to and don’t have to reach after the first round to do it.

[*ochocincos*]

By the time Higgins' rookie contract is done (after 2023 season), Boyd will be just finishing his contract and will be 29 years old.
Chase would be on a rookie contract through 2025 if they gave him a 5th-year option.

I could see the Bengals doing one of two options if all of Boyd, Higgins, and Chase do well over the next 3 seasons:
- Bengals keep Higgins or Boyd, allowing the other to walk in 2023
- Bengals keep both Higgins and Boyd, but Boyd just on a 2-year deal to keep him through 2025

[Cat-Man]

5 Pro Bowl offensive lineman in the 90's helped make HOF'ers out of Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/cowboys/2013/12/03/great-wall-of-dallas-erik-williams-mark-tuinei-nate-newton-mark-stepnoski/3859515/

[XenoMorph]

after dukes latest comments it seems the phone is ringing... i think we moving back a few spots. but only a few

Or its neither and we draft pitts how gives us a little of Column A and B in blocking and pass catching

[fredtoast]

(04-23-2021, 03:49 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: after dukes latest comments it seems the phone is ringing... i think we moving back a few spots. but only a few

Or its neither and we draft pitts how gives us a little of Column A and B in blocking and pass catching

I would not mind dropping to #9 (Denver).  

I think #15 (New England) would be the next option but I would not really want to drop that far.

[jj22]

I think we can get Sewell at 7 or 9. Detroit can come up for Chase with their extra picks if Sewell is the pick. I think he'll be there at 9.

I agree. We all have to remember how it felt to see Burrow hit 18 times against Philly.

Oline day one makes for a boring first round, but protecting Burrow is a must.

I'm ok with taking Chase, but we will be holding our breath until pick 38 and the meltdown as Olineman get snatched up late in the first and early in the second is going to suck.

I don't think a trade down should be only for qb needed teams. Detroit wants a weapon, Chase can help them. Chase would be a good grab for Carolina. A reunion with this old Wideout coach. Sell the player as he or Pitts should garner trade attention for picks 5-10. Sewell, Slater, Tucker, there is some good options if OLine is the pick.

Heck, I'd even argue they should be willing to trade and pick up Waddle if they are set on wideout. He should be available at 9 if 4 qb's go. And If he's not Sewell, Pitts, Chase will be there.

[jj22]

(04-23-2021, 03:57 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I would not mind dropping to #9 (Denver).  

I think #15 (New England) would be the next option but I would not really want to drop that far.

I'd drop down to 15 and just take Tucker if they really want Oline. It'll take care of the need at guard, and we can get Tackle with the extra pick. Maybe 2 tackles in first 4 picks if we get an extra 2nd and 3rd to drop down that far. 

[fredtoast]

(04-23-2021, 03:59 PM)jj22 Wrote: I think we can get Sewell at 7 or 9. Detroit can come up for Chase with their extra picks if Sewell is the pick. I think he'll be there at 9.

I see 5 QBs then Pitts Chase and Sewell.  That is 8.  Who else do you see going before Sewell to drop him to 9?

[Bengalholic]

Interesting factoid of the day:

The 2 Bengals Super Bowl teams had a total of 3 1st round linemen and 3 1st round wide receivers start games.

I figured that would help clear things up for everyone. 

[jj22]

(04-23-2021, 04:02 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I see 5 QBs then Pitts Chase and Sewell.  That is 8.  Who else do you see going before Sewell to drop him to 9?

I think Carolina would be the only true threat to take Sewell. I think he's there at 9 tho.

I think Waddle could go before Sewell (to answer your question).

[Shake n Blake]

(04-23-2021, 03:49 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: after dukes latest comments it seems the phone is ringing... i think we moving back a few spots. but only a few

Or its neither and we draft pitts how gives us a little of Column A and B in blocking and pass catching

Anyone have a link or just fill me in?

[*ochocincos*]

(04-23-2021, 04:02 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I see 5 QBs then Pitts Chase and Sewell.  That is 8.  Who else do you see going before Sewell to drop him to 9?

Maybe Waddle, Patrick Surtain, or Micah Parsons.

[BengalsBong]

I want Chase at 5 and another speed WR by round 4. Take two O-linemen with 2nd 3rd or 4th round. Then pick up a pass rusher/tweener and a kicker to complete for a spot. I do not think a pass rusher is needed as badly as WR and O-line. Two high motor guys at DE and the guys we got at DT will be a big upgrade over last year. Dunlap wanted out and his heart was not in it last year Geno was playing injured or his play fell off I think it was an injury issue. Reader was trying to carry the D-line with Hubbard last year and ended up injured. So a healthy D-line and two new faces should improve our D-line.

[jj22]

Take Chiefs out of the equation for taking a late 1st round Olineman.

Put Ravens in.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/23/ravens-trade-orlando-brown-jr-to-chiefs-get-2021-first-rounder/

[XenoMorph]

(04-23-2021, 04:12 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Anyone have a link or just fill me in?

Just reading between the lines but said willing to listen to offers but wont trade back if it means missing out on premiere talent.. So depending on how many guys they have slated as that (premiere) talent  i would guess if we think we can trade back and still get one the players we want while picking up extra capital they will pull the trigger.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/22/duke-tobin-bengals-will-talk-trading-down-but-were-in-position-for-premier-talent/

BTW.. Slayter says hes the best OT in the draft.

[BengalsBong]

(04-23-2021, 04:16 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Maybe Waddle, Patrick Surtain, or Micah Parsons.

Some mocks had the other OT Slater I think is his name going before Sewell.