My final pre-draft thoughts on Chase/Sewell

[XenoMorph]

(04-23-2021, 03:57 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I would not mind dropping to #9 (Denver).  

I think #15 (New England) would be the next option but I would not really want to drop that far.

right if NE wants the pick they would need to move up a little first then trade that pick to us i think(or some 3 team trade thingy)... Which is not out of Belichecks wheel house if he wants someone he will figure a way

And if there is anything behind the rumor Dolphins are also looking at QB @ 6 value of 5 goes up... (even if not true people just gotta believe it lol)

[Stewy]

(04-23-2021, 04:34 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: Just reading between the lines but said willing to listen to offers but wont trade back if it means missing out on premiere talent.. So depending on how many guys they have slated as that (premiere) talent  i would guess if we think we can trade back and still get one the players we want while picking up extra capital they will pull the trigger.

you're reaching

[XenoMorph]

(04-23-2021, 04:38 PM)Stewy Wrote: you're reaching

just using logic.  im not drooling over these guys like most of you.

[Stewy]

(04-23-2021, 04:40 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: just using logic.  im not drooling over these guys like most of you.

lol you obviously haven't been reading a thing I've written of the last month if you think I'm drooling over anything.

There is no such thing as using logic and reading between the lines in April before the draft.

[TheBengalsMind]

Most people bring up Burrows health.

But let's not forget offensive lineman get hurt too! You go into the season with Reiff and Jonah Williams and one of them gets hurt your gonna find yourself playing Jenga with the offensive lineman again.

How'd that go for us last year?

But if I'm the Bengals I'd keep pumping Pitts and Chase.

It's easy to fall in love with a Ferrari, until you got to pay the maintenance. In this case the maintenance being Joe Burrows health.

Because the Bengals are likely to find themselves with every single top player at their position in the draft, that isn't a QB.

A lot of teams are itching for Pitts. Essentially it's almost like having the 1st pick in the draft.

If we could pull something off like still getting Penei Sewell between 6-10 and using those extra picks to trade up to get whichever WR falls between 15-20 and get Chase or Smith.

That'd be a draft day miracle, Christmas would have come early! But I'm gonna be happy with Sewell. Anything extra is just icing on the cake.

[GreenCornBengal]

I honestly want us to double dip on Oline this year just so the Oline excuse can be off the table.

[Bengalholic]

(04-23-2021, 04:38 PM)Stewy Wrote: you're reaching

How so? That's pretty much what Tobin said...they have a comfort zone and won't trade past that unless someone blows them away with a great deal.

[Bengalstripes9]

I agree 100%.

It's easy to get excited about whoever we end up drafting with the 3 players in front of us.

I agree and see Sewell as the best scenario for us. But we could potentially make it work if we miss out or pass on him. I'd take the LT when you have the chance though.

That said, it'll be easy for folks to determine in a couple years who we should have picked as this is an important pick to get right.

[*pally*]

I think whichever of the 3 players taken at #5, the team will get a potential superstar. I also think we will always regret the players not taken because, well, we're fickle.

There are persuasive arguments for every option

Joe learning to throw the ball away will prevent many of his sacks. Having multiple receivers that can spread the offense will prevent sacks and improve the running game. Having a kickass line can also do all of that. I personally remain intrigued by the potential of a Kyle Pitts. Having watched the Bengals get destroyed time and time again by receiving TEs having that option ourselves would-be killer. He is not your average TE.

[CoachGeorge]

(04-23-2021, 03:29 PM)Cat-Man Wrote: 5 Pro Bowl offensive lineman in the 90's helped make HOF'ers out of Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/cowboys/2013/12/03/great-wall-of-dallas-erik-williams-mark-tuinei-nate-newton-mark-stepnoski/3859515/

Or was it the other way around?

None of those guys were first rounders. Two went undrafted and two went in rounds that don’t exist anymore. Even Larry Allen was a third round guy.

[Stewy]

(04-23-2021, 04:57 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: How so? That's pretty much what Tobin said...they have a comfort zone and won't trade past that unless someone blows them away with a great deal.

And once again Tobin says exactly what any other GM would say at this time of year.  Any one of us could have gotten up there and said the same thing.  It's reaching because it's drawing conclusions based on what everyone knows.

"It's a deep draft of OL and any WR taken in the early rounds is expected to contribute early."   WOW!  Well OMG!  That is titanic!  This super secret knowledge tells me EXACTLY what the Bengals are going to do.

*shakes head*

Well, I am going to commit to NOT responding to these discussions any more.  Me reacting to others over reactions is dumb on my part, so I'm done.  Sorry to have disturbed the pre-draft information tilt-a-whirl.

[Bengalholic]

(04-23-2021, 05:14 PM)Stewy Wrote: And once again Tobin says exactly what any other GM would say at this time of year.  Any one of us could have gotten up there and said the same thing.  It's reaching because it's drawing conclusions based on what everyone knows.

"It's a deep draft of OL and any WR taken in the early rounds is expected to contribute early."   WOW!  Well OMG!  That is titanic!  This super secret knowledge tells me EXACTLY what the Bengals are going to do.

*shakes head*

Well, I am going to commit to NOT responding to these discussions any more.  Me reacting to others over reactions is dumb on my part, so I'm done.  Sorry to have disturbed the pre-draft information tilt-a-whirl.

Not sure what any of that has to do with the fact that the Bengals don't want move out of Sewell-Chase-Pitts-possibly Slater range unless someone offers a great deal. 

[PDub80]

(04-23-2021, 05:14 PM)CoachGeorge Wrote: Or was it the other way around?

None of those guys were first rounders.  Two went undrafted and two went in rounds that don’t exist anymore.  Even Larry Allen was a third round guy.

Shhhhhh, don't let the facts get in the way of a bad argument! You can only build a great first line with top 5 picks. Everyone knows that! 

Irvin, Aikman, Smith .... all first rounders selected by Dallas in consecutive years.

[J24]

(04-23-2021, 05:26 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Not sure what any of that has to do with the fact that the Bengals don't want move out of Sewell-Chase-Pitts-possibly Slater range unless someone offers a great deal. 

Just curious whats a great deal? For example if WFT gives you a 2nd +2 3rds and a 2022 1st; Duke has to take that right?

[*ochocincos*]

(04-23-2021, 04:34 PM)BengalsBong Wrote: Some mocks had the other OT Slater I think is his name going before Sewell.

It could happen I guess, as they are closer in arm length than people expected.
Slater tested better, but Sewell's also 27 lbs heavier than Slater.
Sewell is also nearly two years younger than Slater, so the thought is he has more room for growth than Slater.
I just feel they are close enough to each other skill wise, but most teams will put Sewell slightly ahead because of being younger and bigger.

[PDub80]

(04-23-2021, 02:34 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Obviously no minds are going to be changed here, but I want to get it all out of my system and try to enjoy the week leading up to the draft without spending the next week arguing. So here goes.

My reasons for taking Sewell at 5...

1. Joe Burrow's health. People keep trying to minimize this, but we all saw what happened last year, and Joe will be playing on an injured knee this year. Perhaps with a brace. Yes, freak injuries happen. What happened last year wasn't "freak" though. We ALL saw it coming. Yes, it can happen again even with a good line, but clearly the chances are lower if Burrow takes less hits. This isn't complicated.

2. Yes, we can get a lineman anywhere in the draft, but people need to be honest. Sewell is the best prospect we can get our hands on. There is a substantial dropoff in caliber when you get to round 2. Sewell WILL start...probably at Right Tackle (Reiff moving inside). This nonsense that we wouldn't start the 5th overall pick is...nonsense.

3. Tee Higgins. Regardless of how you feel about his potential, he showed a lot in his rookie season. The reasonable decision is to at least let this guy have a chance to fill the #1 role before dismissing him entirely by taking Chase. If it later becomes clear that he isn't a WR1, then we can take a WR next year. We don't have that luxury with the line. It needs an elite player NOW.

If we take Chase and Higgins continues to rise, we will NOT be able to pay Chase and Higgins in a 2 year span. Too much money on one position. Some live in the now, so I doubt they care, but long term, this stuff matters.

4. Not enough balls to go around. If Mixon is healthy, we will not continue throwing 40 times a game. When people just look at AJ Green's outgoing targets, they are failing to consider this. So if Chase and Higgins see 100+ targets, Boyd and his $10 million cap hit are going to get squeezed a bit. He's going to go from 850 yards to say...500. Massive overpay. May as well trade the guy.

5. The overall impact on the offense. It's not just about health. When you have elite blocking up front, Suddenly 3rd and 7 becomes 3rd and 1. Suddenly you don't have to throw on 3rd and 2. More time to throw deep. Opens up the playbook. Run game threat brings the safeties up and you can throw over the top. Separation stat "magically" improves.

Yes you can get a good blocker later, but again, don't be obtuse. If you REALLY want all of the above, Sewell is the best choice in this draft - by a country mile - over the round 2 guys.

6. There are speed guys with potential available in round 2. Yes there is a huge dropoff, but I think even the Chase people admit that our need on the line is more dire than our need at WR. So if we're gambling with that round 2 guy, why gamble with the bigger need? Is Chase that much better than Sewell to justify it? Because they look pretty equal to most.

---------------------

I take ALL of the above into consideration and it seems like an easy card to turn in. Now if we roll with Chase, life won't be over for me. Chase is a fantastic player and maybe that round 2 lineman will pan out. Hopefully we take a round 2 lineman, because our history shows us taking more linemen in rounds 3, 4 and 5.

I won't be responding here. This is officially my last post on this until after the draft.

I'll leave you with this blurb from Peter King:

5. CINCINNATI. How the Bengals don’t take Oregon tackle Penei Sewell is beyond me, especially because this draft is filthy-rich in receivers—as with every recent draft. But I also hear the drumbeat is loud for Ja’Marr Chase, who made such beautiful music with Joe Burrow in 2019 at LSU (average game: 127 receiving yards, 21.2 yards per catch). Clearly, I’d vote for the Joe Burrow Preservation Plan, and start this draft tackle at 5, guard at 38. Burrow’s good enough, if he has time, to win with Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and a lesser third option (Rondale Moore?).

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/18/nfl-draft-rumors-fmia-peter-king/

I totally disagree. Allow me....

1: Assuming they are all healthy, the 5 OL starters on the roster right now for the Bengals gave up a total of 6 sacks in 2020. That means 17 sacks are either NOT on the roster or at best 3rd on the depth chart... and that is before the draft and the rest of free agency.

2: Sewell is NOT the highest rated prospect the Bengals would potentially have available. In fact, depending on the scouting report, Sewell isn't even the best O lineman the Bengals can draft at 5. Pitts is rated higher than Sewell and, when positional value is taken into account, Chase is as well depending on the article.

Sewell would probably start, but at RG, more than likely. He is now projected more to NFL Guard than he is tackle duento his shorter stature (6-4) and shorter arms (33 1/4). Those are G proportions. 

3: Higgins is a very strong player. But, he was a #2 & #3 option with AJ & Boyd on the field. This notion that you can just throw to anyone is a poor one. The Bengals are lacking weapons... given that they run "11" personnel more than any other team in the league, that is bad. 11 personnel is 3 wr, 1 RB, & 1 TE. To think that you can put any other WR out there and Tee Higgins would still get single coverage is a huge leap. Who's going out there as the other threat? Tate? Thomas? Morgan? We saw how bad the WRs looked last year. They were BAD. No matter who is on the line, if Burrow has to hold the ball because guys cannot get separation, he is going to get murdered.

Another threat opposite Higgins will continue to give Tee single coverage looks AND stop opposing CBs & S from creeping up in the box.

4: Plenty of balls to go around. Teams lineup with multiple threats every year. Cheifs, Browns, Steelers, Buccs, Saints, etc etc have excellent threats all over the field.

Chad, TJ, Henry, Rudi.... AJ, Jones, Sanu, Eifert.... No issues.

5. Elite blocking isn't about a bunch of elite guys. It is about how well they work together as a group WITH the QB & RB. This idea that big time draft picks don't get QBs hurt is false.

- Throw deep to whom? Tee Higgins & then ???? Teams Safties are alrwady creeping up because the Bengals have no one to go deep. That is what has been killing them the past several seasons. There is no room to run because of this. This has been discussed on HTPG & Locked on quite a bit.

6 The idea that Sewell is the only guy who's an elite pass blocker or lineman is just plain false. Sewell' pass blocking grade was 95. Cosmi 90. Dickerson 91. Leatherwood (if I recall) 89. A lot of guys in this draft are highly rated pass blockers.... against way way way better competition, as well. Sewell beat up tomato cans in the Pac 12. At least Slater has tape against elite pass rushers.

7: The dropoff from Chase to the 2nd round receivers is a chasm compared to Sewell and the 2nd or even 3rd round guys... especially when you factor in that he projects more to play G than he does OT.

To me, this draft, THAT is why Jamaar Chase is the clear, no brainer pick at 5. I think there will be 80% of Sewell available at 38. I cannot say the same about Chase.

Accordong to PFF analytics, in terms of positional value, a WR is far far far more important than an OT or G. I get that the Bengals need BOTH WR & O line. They NEED both. I would rather have the higher ceiling WR who is proven against NFL talent (doing that proving with the QB already here, BTW) and then take the best linemen in 2/3 or 2/4.

BTW, I am excited for ANY of them. Several paths to success for the Bengals. I will be all in on Sewell, Slater, Pitts, Chase. ALL IN. Just because it doesn't happen the way I envision it, doesn't mean I won't be able to see the vision. 

I love you all, regardless. Even you, Fred Toast.

[PDub80]

(04-23-2021, 05:59 PM)J24 Wrote: Just curious whats a great deal? For example if WFT gives you a 2nd +2 3rds and a 2022 1st; Duke has to take that right?

No way. Trade out of the first for those? It would probably take a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and a 1st + more picks next year.
Pitts, Sewell, Chase are all the cream of the crop in this draft.

[Bengalholic]

(04-23-2021, 05:59 PM)J24 Wrote: Just curious whats a great deal? For example if WFT gives you a 2nd +2 3rds and a 2022 1st; Duke has to take that right?

I don't think there's any way they drop that far. I think 15 is probably the absolute lowest they would go, and that would likely require the Pats 1st, 2nd and 3rd this year and a 1st next year.

[Big_Ern]

(04-23-2021, 04:12 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Anyone have a link or just fill me in?

Seemed like collinsworth was team chase or trade back. 

[*jason*]

(04-23-2021, 06:32 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: I don't think there's any way they drop that far. I think 15 is probably the absolute lowest they would go, and that would likely require the Pats 1st, 2nd and 3rd this year and a 1st next year.

If all we're giving up I'd the 5th pick, I'd take that all day. That seems like a ton to give up on New England's side.