My final pre-draft thoughts on Chase/Sewell

[Bengalholic]

(04-23-2021, 07:05 PM)jason Wrote: If all we're giving up I'd the 5th pick, I'd take that all day. That seems like a ton to give up on New England's side.

If the Bengals are going to pass up the chance to take one of the big 3, the team moving up is going to have to overpay some, especially moving into the top 5 from the 15th spot. The 1st, 2nd and 3rd this year falls short of the value of the 5th pick, so it would take at least a 1st rounder next year to put it over the top and make it worth their while, IMO.

[BengalHawk62]

This sums up my thoughts......


The Bengals have already addressed the Tackle position for 2021. This idea that the franchise is doomed if they pass on Sewell in Round 1 to add a dynamic play-maker in Chase is ridiculous. You can find a really good interior lineman in Round 2.

[SadFaceBengal15]

(04-23-2021, 04:25 PM)BengalsBong Wrote: I want Chase at 5 and another speed WR by round 4. Take two O-linemen with 2nd 3rd or 4th round. Then pick up a pass rusher/tweener and a kicker to complete for a spot. I do not think a pass rusher is needed as badly as WR and O-line. Two high motor guys at DE and the guys we got at DT will be a big upgrade over last year. Dunlap wanted out and his heart was not in it last year Geno was playing injured or his play fell off I think it was an injury issue. Reader was trying to carry the D-line with Hubbard last year and ended up injured. So a healthy D-line and two new faces should improve our D-line.

This type of bs is what scares me ^^^^ defensive end is a massive need and not something we can wait til the 6th round to address double dipping at wr would be some serious short bus type move. If they go chase at 5 (even tho the smart teams would go Sewell in this situation) then you have to go offensive lineman in 2 or 3 ideally for me (with chase being the pick at 5) would be
1. Ja’Marr Chase
2. Best pass rusher available
3. Quinn Meinerz
4. Kendrick Green
5. Kenny Yeboah
6. Then maybe we can talk another wide receiver but this team has way to many needs to be bring sand to the beach with picks like double dipping at wide receiver relatively early

[J24]

(04-23-2021, 06:22 PM)PDub80 Wrote: No way. Trade out of the first for those? It would probably take a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and a 1st + more picks next year.
Pitts, Sewell, Chase are all the cream of the crop in this draft.

I would rather have multiple good players than just one of those guys. Were a team with a ton of holes on both sides of the ball.

(04-23-2021, 06:32 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: I don't think there's any way they drop that far. I think 15 is probably the absolute lowest they would go, and that would likely require the Pats 1st, 2nd and 3rd this year and a 1st next year.

Depending on what happens with the QBs 19 could still get you a great player in this draft.

[Beaker]

My tiebreaker has always been the following:

Which prospect stands the better chance of NOT panning out as advertised?

Without question, that is Sewell.

Played in the PAC12 against inferior defenses.
Played in a spread offense which are known for being detrimental to learning proper pass protection/blocking.
Is not the consensus best player at his position (some still rate Slater higher).
Additionally, the drop off in talent after taking the best WR is far greater than the drop off in talent after taking the top O lineman.

Chase has a much greater chance of panning out as expected.

Played in the SEC against top defenses.
Faced and WON against CBs who are now in the NFL.
Has chemistry with Burrow.
Is the consensus top WR in the draft.

Yes O line is a need, but that doesn't mean that need cannot be filled in rds 2,3 and 4.

And finally, with a top 5 pick, you draft the best player available...especially since they have addressed the OT position in FA.

Chase is the safer and smarter pick, hands down.

[*jason*]

(04-23-2021, 07:40 PM)Beaker Wrote: My tiebreaker has always been the following:

Which prospect stands the better chance of NOT panning out as advertised?

Without question, that is Sewell.

Played in the PAC12 against inferior defenses.
Played in a spread offense which are known for being detrimental to learning proper pass protection/blocking.
Is not the consensus best player at his position (some still rate Slater higher).
Additionally, the drop off in talent after taking the best WR is far greater than the drop off in talent after taking the top O lineman.

Chase has a much greater chance of panning out as expected.

Played in the SEC against top defenses.
Faced and WON against CBs who are now in the NFL.
Has chemistry with Burrow.
Is the consensus top WR in the draft.

Yes O line is a need, but that doesn't mean that need cannot be filled in rds 2,3 and 4.

And finally, with a top 5 pick, you draft the best player available...especially since they have addressed the OT position in FA.

Chase is the safer and smarter pick, hands down.

I'm with Beaker on this...

[PDub80]

(04-23-2021, 07:40 PM)Beaker Wrote: My tiebreaker has always been the following:

Which prospect stands the better chance of NOT panning out as advertised?

Without question, that is Sewell.

Played in the PAC12 against inferior defenses.
Played in a spread offense which are known for being detrimental to learning proper pass protection/blocking.
Is not the consensus best player at his position (some still rate Slater higher).
Additionally, the drop off in talent after taking the best WR is far greater than the drop off in talent after taking the top O lineman.

Chase has a much greater chance of panning out as expected.

Played in the SEC against top defenses.
Faced and WON against CBs who are now in the NFL.
Has chemistry with Burrow.
Is the consensus top WR in the draft.

Yes O line is a need, but that doesn't mean that need cannot be filled in rds 2,3 and 4.

And finally, with a top 5 pick, you draft the best player available...especially since they have addressed the OT position in FA.

Chase is the safer and smarter pick, hands down.

(04-23-2021, 07:56 PM)jason Wrote: I'm with Beaker on this...

And now, we are 3

[Nickslycat]

KC didn’t think there would a O.T. starter at 31., but what do they know, we will draft an instant starter at 38!
There is a reason we haven’t won a playoff game for 30+ years.

[PDub80]

Bateman, WR MN would be the absolute best the Bengals could hope for. He's clearly WR 4 or 5 this draft. I think Marshall ran too well to be a 2nd rounder. Bateman had a very good 2019, but only played a handful of games this year and was so so.

Dyami Brown is super under developed and limited in his skill set. Not polished with a lot of warts on his game.

Most of the other WRs that would fitnthe Bengals profile: Over 6' tall are deeper in the draft kinds of picks. It's true this draft is "loaded" with WR talent, but most of that is under 6' tall or really slight of frame. They're all littler guys. Basically slot WRs & return specialists.

Later in the rounds I would say the kid from Charleston is really interesting.  And he is huge 6-5 and very fast. And the kid from Colorado State is 6-6 and runs in the 4.5s. Those guys are 6th, 7th or UDFA material.

If they go oline in q, I would rather them just go RB in 2. Harris or Ettien may be there, and then go oline & D again in 3/4... and just RUN the hell out of the ball. Take a WR or 2 late or UDFA. No one is really worth much for what the Bengals need in rounds 3-5.

[Burma]

(04-23-2021, 08:28 PM)PDub80 Wrote: And now, we are 3

Weren't you guys in Shrek?



I'm just kidding, don't take it hard.  This debate will end someday.  Probably long after we are all dead, but some day.

[Bengalholic]

(04-23-2021, 08:37 PM)Nickslycat Wrote: KC didn’t think there would a O.T. starter at 31., but what do they know, we will draft an instant starter at 38!
There is a reason we haven’t won a playoff game for 30+ years.

People are stuck on tackle, but this team also needs help on the interior. A guy like Wyatt Davis starts immediately, is a good scheme fit and brings a mauler presence to the run game as well. 

[Destro]

Oh, there's a draft about to happen?

[CoachGeorge]

(04-23-2021, 08:37 PM)Nickslycat Wrote: KC didn’t think there would a O.T. starter at 31., but what do they know, we will draft an instant starter at 38!
There is a reason we haven’t won a playoff game for 30+ years.

KC is looking to capitalize on their window before their inevitable FA losses.

If we take a T prospect at 38, he will undoubtedly play guard anyway at least for a year.

[NUGDUKWE]

I think this draft has alot of talent in the first 3 rounds especially and if some team wants to trade up for a QB or one of the players they're in love with. Take the trade. I want sewell but I'd be okay with chase but I don't want Pitts we've just had terrible luck with 1st round TE's. I know wr is a need but I wouldn't panic if we hadn't drafted one thru 3 rds like i would be if we hadn't drafted any oline.

[Burma]

(04-23-2021, 08:58 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I said I wouldn't respond, but this seems a fairly innocuous question, so I'll bite.

If we go Chase, I guess I'd just skip Tackle altogether and look at some interior prospects like Evan Neal or Wyatt Davis. Maybe even a Center. Then I'd shift my focus on begging Reiff to stick around after this year, or we're needing a good right tackle for. the. 6th. year. in. a. row.

I'm just not overly impressed with the tackles some sites have slated for round 2. Not enough to trust them against the best edge rushers this division offers, with Joe Burrow fresh off a knee surgery.

If we go Sewell, I'm looking directly at Terrance Marshall. If he's gone, Rondale Moore and Kadarius Toney look like great, speedy guys with potential in round 2.

This eternal hole at RT is getting absurd. 
   


Also Nico Collins is being slept on unfairly. Trading back up into the bottom of the 3rd, where he is projected to go, could pay huge dividends. His RAS was a very good 9.57 (Chase was 9.88, Rondale Moore was 9.33, and Dyami Brown was 8.38) But beyond that, his WRAPS score was 3rd, trailing only Chase and Pitts!

Quote:WROPS, RAS, and WRAPS

With all of that said, occasionally some players fall through the cracks despite fantastic measurables and elite production. Identifying players who are not expected to go high in the draft despite elite athletic gifts and great college production can help to make or break your draft. In order to help identify receivers I’ve run WROPS (Wide Receiver OPS) for every college receiver, running back, or tight end with at least 30 targets.
For those unfamiliar with WROPS, it combines a receiver’s Catch Percentage and Yards per Reception into one statistic, scaled to baseball’s “OPS” stat. 1.000 is great, .900 is very good, .800 is average, and anything below is sub-par. WROPS is effective in identifying high-level producers because it properly credits all types of receivers by answering the question: “Is your catch percentage good considering the depth of the targets you actually catch?” It is a rate stat, and can also be useful to identify efficient players who may lack targets for various reasons.

If you are unfamiliar with Relative Athletic Score (RAS), it was developed by Kent Lee Platte (@Mathbomb), and aggregates all combine/pro day measurables into a single number on a 10-point scale. RAS does an outstanding job identifying the best athletes in a given class.
Combining the two gives us WRAPS, an aggregate of production and athleticism in one number. A 20+ would be outstanding. Closer to 10 would be bad.

   

Collins is the real deal.

[NUGDUKWE]

I also want to know that zac taylor has some idea looking back at the last 2 years that throwing the football 50 times a game isn't a winning formula in the nfl. I think he needs the blame more than anyone for burrows injury. I think drafting sewell or trading back and going best oline available not only says we're going all in on protecting burrow but also signals that we realize our offensive philosophy needs tweaked and we need to focus on a more balanced attack.

[BengalsBong]

(04-23-2021, 07:38 PM)SadFaceBengal15 Wrote: This type of bs is what scares me ^^^^ defensive end is a massive need and not something we can wait til the 6th round to address double dipping at wr would be some serious short bus type move.  If they go chase at 5 (even tho the smart teams would go Sewell in this situation) then you have to go offensive lineman in 2 or 3 ideally for me (with chase being the pick at 5) would be
1. Ja’Marr Chase
2. Best pass rusher available
3. Quinn Meinerz
4. Kendrick Green
5. Kenny Yeboah
6.  Then maybe we can talk another wide receiver but this team has way to many needs to be bring sand to the beach with picks like double dipping at wide receiver relatively early

If we draft a fast WR and he gets hurt then we are in same boat without a guy that can stretch the D and go over the top. That is why we MUST get two speed guys at WR. We lost two first round picks in Green and Ross the only two with the speed to get on top of the D and Erickson. We got a few guys on the practice squad but we need at least two fast guys this year from the draft.

BTW I want Chase Pitt then Sewell in that order at the 5th pick.

[2MinutesHate]

(04-23-2021, 08:43 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: People are stuck on tackle, but this team also needs help on the interior. A guy like Wyatt Davis starts immediately, is a good scheme fit and brings a mauler presence to the run game as well. 

Our interior is so bad that if we don't find guys to block and block well, Burrow's career will be over before it started.  I think if the Bengals choose once again to take the shortcut regarding the OL, we will suffer another terrible season.  Whoever we pick for OL cannot be a bust.  It has to be practically a slam-dunk. 

Taking a risk on Burrow's health by picking up an OL later in the draft is really just crazy to me.  MJ, Spain and XSF are not starters.  The only way they become starters is if we don't take the easy pick.  Hopkins/Price are backups on most teams. 

Will the Bengals take Chase?  Most likely.  
Don't forget, this is the same management that selected John Ross. 
They just can't help themselves when presented with the shiny object.

Take Sewell, I think most of us are happy.
Take Chase/Pitts, I think we pretty much hold our breath all year until Joe gets hurt again. 
This team doesn't have the coaching to cut corners on OL.  I seriously doubt that it will work.

[*bfine32*]

(04-23-2021, 09:16 PM)Burma Wrote: This eternal hole at RT is getting absurd. 



Also Nico Collins is being slept on unfairly. Trading back up into the bottom of the 3rd, where he is projected to go, could pay huge dividends. His RAS was a very good 9.57 (Chase was 9.88, Rondale Moore was 9.33, and Dyami Brown was 8.38) But beyond that, his WRAPS score was 3rd, trailing only Chase and Pitts!




Collins is the real deal.

Collins is going to go much higher than the bottom of the 3rd. 

[SadFaceBengal15]

(04-23-2021, 06:19 PM)PDub80 Wrote: I totally disagree. Allow me....

1: Assuming they are all healthy, the 5 OL starters on the roster right now for the Bengals gave up a total of 6 sacks in 2020. That means 17 sacks are either NOT on the roster or at best 3rd on the depth chart... and that is before the draft and the rest of free agency.

2: Sewell is NOT the highest rated prospect the Bengals would potentially have available. In fact, depending on the scouting report, Sewell isn't even the best O lineman the Bengals can draft at 5. Pitts is rated higher than Sewell and, when positional value is taken into account, Chase is as well depending on the article.

Sewell would probably start, but at RG, more than likely. He is now projected more to NFL Guard than he is tackle duento his shorter stature (6-4) and shorter arms (33 1/4). Those are G proportions. 

3: Higgins is a very strong player. But, he was a #2 & #3 option with AJ & Boyd on the field. This notion that you can just throw to anyone is a poor one. The Bengals are lacking weapons... given that they run "11" personnel more than any other team in the league, that is bad. 11 personnel is 3 wr, 1 RB, & 1 TE. To think that you can put any other WR out there and Tee Higgins would still get single coverage is a huge leap. Who's going out there as the other threat? Tate? Thomas? Morgan? We saw how bad the WRs looked last year. They were BAD. No matter who is on the line, if Burrow has to hold the ball because guys cannot get separation, he is going to get murdered.

Another threat opposite Higgins will continue to give Tee single coverage looks AND stop opposing CBs & S from creeping up in the box.

4: Plenty of balls to go around. Teams lineup with multiple threats every year. Cheifs, Browns, Steelers, Buccs, Saints, etc etc have excellent threats all over the field.

Chad, TJ, Henry, Rudi.... AJ, Jones, Sanu, Eifert.... No issues.

5. Elite blocking isn't about a bunch of elite guys. It is about how well they work together as a group WITH the QB & RB. This idea that big time draft picks don't get QBs hurt is false.

- Throw deep to whom? Tee Higgins & then ???? Teams Safties are alrwady creeping up because the Bengals have no one to go deep. That is what has been killing them the past several seasons. There is no room to run because of this. This has been discussed on HTPG & Locked on quite a bit.

6 The idea that Sewell is the only guy who's an elite pass blocker or lineman is just plain false. Sewell' pass blocking grade was 95. Cosmi 90. Dickerson 91. Leatherwood (if I recall) 89. A lot of guys in this draft are highly rated pass blockers.... against way way way better competition, as well. Sewell beat up tomato cans in the Pac 12. At least Slater has tape against elite pass rushers.

7: The dropoff from Chase to the 2nd round receivers is a chasm compared to Sewell and the 2nd or even 3rd round guys... especially when you factor in that he projects more to play G than he does OT.

To me, this draft, THAT is why Jamaar Chase is the clear, no brainer pick at 5. I think there will be 80% of Sewell available at 38. I cannot say the same about Chase.

Accordong to PFF analytics, in terms of positional value, a WR is far far far more important than an OT or G. I get that the Bengals need BOTH WR & O line. They NEED both. I would rather have the higher ceiling WR who is proven against NFL talent (doing that proving with the QB already here, BTW) and then take the best linemen in 2/3 or 2/4.

BTW, I am excited for ANY of them. Several paths to success for the Bengals. I will be all in on Sewell, Slater, Pitts, Chase. ALL IN. Just because it doesn't happen the way I envision it, doesn't mean I won't be able to see the vision. 

I love you all, regardless. Even you, Fred Toast.

Fun read but this is when u take Sewell u build ur team inside out. It’s that simple.