Elephant in the Room

[Shake n Blake]

(11-04-2021, 01:32 PM)Bengalitis Wrote: Burrow's weakness may be the Farve syndrome if it's not rectified. 

Trying and doing too much by himself.  Farve was great then became an INT guru, specially late in his career when the tried too hard to be the hero or try to live up to the expectation splashed on TV weekly.

Even in Minnesota, he took the Vikings to the playoffs but would shoot himself on the foot with INTs.. costing them  the division championship i think.. cant remember

Favre's reputation as a turnover machine isn't really accurate. He only led the league in INTs 3 times in a 20 year career, and his career INT rate of 3.3% was exactly league-average during the time he played (1991-2010).

He just had memorable picks in the playoffs and a few dud games, and I think that plus the fact that he's thrown the most INTs in NFL history leads people to believe it was a worse problem than it really was. Thing is, he threw more times than anybody other than maybe 3-4 guys who all played in the modern era where rule changes have led to fewer picks overall.

So his INT record will probably never be broken.

As for Burrow, his INT rate this year (3.7%) is MUCH higher than than the overall league average (2.2%). That said, it may take years to tell if it's a real problem or if it's just a one year issue that he'll grow out of.

[KillerGoose]

(11-04-2021, 03:59 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Favre's reputation as a turnover machine isn't really accurate. He only led the league in INTs 3 times in a 20 year career, and his career INT rate of 3.3% was exactly league-average during the time he played (1991-2010).

He just had memorable picks in the playoffs and a few dud games, and I think that plus the fact that he's thrown the most INTs in NFL history leads people to believe it was a worse problem than it really was. Thing is, he threw more times than anybody other than maybe 3-4 guys who all played in the modern era where rule changes have led to fewer picks overall.

So his INT record will probably never be broken.

As for Burrow, his INT rate this year (3.7%) is MUCH higher than than the overall league average (2.2%). That said, it may take years to tell if it's a real problem or if it's just a one year issue that he'll grow out of.

Yeah, it’s definitely overblown. It was just a different era. If anything, it MIGHT come from 1999 on. That’s as far back as I can go with my database, but from 1999-2010, Favre had an INT% of 3.25% whereas the league average dipped to 2.9%. His INT% stayed constant as the league improve. Even still, it’s a 10% difference.

If we’re going to bring up real turnover machines, we can talk about Dilfer. He just wasn’t very good overall lol.

[Au165]

(11-04-2021, 03:59 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: as for Burrow, his INT rate this year (3.7%) is MUCH higher than than the overall league average (2.2%). That said, it may take years to tell if it's a real problem or if it's just a one year issue that he'll grow out of.

True, however his TD% is also well above league average (8.1% vs 4.8% avg) so he has kind of morphed into this gunslinger. He has even said he takes more chances with the defense we have so I don't think the either increase is by coincidence. He isn't in Jameis Winston territory (4.8% INT rate to 5.3% TD rate) from a couple years ago so I am not sure it's really a concern at this point

[Bengal Billy]

(11-04-2021, 01:31 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The overtime pick against the Packers  was pretty bad.

Agree

[Shake n Blake]

(11-04-2021, 04:25 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Yeah, it’s definitely overblown. It was just a different era. If anything, it MIGHT come from 1999 on. That’s as far back as I can go with my database, but from 1999-2010, Favre had an INT% of 3.25% whereas the league average dipped to 2.9%. His INT% stayed constant as the league improve. Even still, it’s a 10% difference.

If we’re going to bring up real turnover machines, we can talk about Dilfer. He just wasn’t very good overall lol.

Good ol' Dilfer. Teams were more patient back then. He was awful for his first few years, and peaked as a serviceable starter, but if you ever had a season with 4 TDs to 18 picks these days, you'd never see the field again.

(11-04-2021, 04:26 PM)Au165 Wrote: True, however his TD% is also well above league average (8.1% vs 4.8% avg) so he has kind of morphed into this gunslinger. He has even said he takes more chances with the defense we have so I don't think the either increase is by coincidence. He isn't in Jameis Winston territory (4.8% INT rate to 5.3% TD rate) from a couple years ago so I am not sure it's really a concern at this point

I'm not hating on the guy. Even with the picks, he's having a fantastic season. I'm just isolating the INT's and talking about whether it's a problem or not. Not trying to be a jerk, but Idk if saying "at least he isn't 30 int Jameis Winston" is all that comforting. It can still be an issue if he's throwing 20 picks every year trying to force the issue.

Not saying that's going to be the case. Just saying that it can and has been an issue at times, when a guy is throwing INTs fairly frequently. We've just been so explosive now that it hasn't mattered as much. That said, it was pretty costly in OT vs GB and a couple other times. Which makes me wonder if he'll throw 1-2 in the playoffs, which would be a backbreaker against the best teams.

[*bfine32*]

It may not be an elephant, but it's a pretty big pig..

[Murdock2420]

(11-07-2021, 07:41 PM)bfine32 Wrote: It may not be an elephant, but it's a pretty big pig..

Well let's make Bacon!

[Essex Johnson]

11 Ints after this week might lead the NFL. many at crucial times. we can really discuss the elephant in the room with decision making

[Joelist]

Yes, most of the picks are bad decisions not weak throws or anything else.

[TheCincinnatiKid]

I don't think it's time to worry yet. Burrow was pretty bad today, and was bad against Chicago. He was good in the rest largely. There does seem to be an unfortunate or bone-headed INT in every game, which is concerning, but like said there have been loads of great QBs who have those on their record.

Sometimes its an eye-test thing. He's clearly a good QB when he's going right, can make all the throws and seems to be a leader which is very important as well. He's also not yet played a full season, so to expect a seasoned vet right out of the gate is expecting something that's unlikely.

I think he just needs to calm down, trust the process, not force Chase too often... realise it's year 2 in the Burrow project. If he's the guy, then we'll be hoping he's our QB for 15 years or whatever. While we'd all love to win the Superbowl this year, it's still very early in the guy's career.

[RunKijanaRun]

It absolutely warrants discussion and concern. 100%.

[Essex Johnson]

(11-07-2021, 08:15 PM)TheCincinnatiKid Wrote: I don't think it's time to worry yet. Burrow was pretty bad today, and was bad against Chicago. He was good in the rest largely. There does seem to be an unfortunate or bone-headed INT in every game, which is concerning, but like said there have been loads of great QBs who have those on their record.

Sometimes its an eye-test thing. He's clearly a good QB when he's going right, can make all the throws and seems to be a leader which is very important as well. He's also not yet played a full season, so to expect a seasoned vet right out of the gate is expecting something that's unlikely.

I think he just needs to calm down, trust the process, not force Chase too often... realise it's year 2 in the Burrow project. If he's the guy, then we'll be hoping he's our QB for 15 years or whatever. While we'd all love to win the Superbowl this year, it's still very early in the guy's career.

Well I wont sign off that he is the guy next 15 years.. at this point in his career, he probably will get a 2nd contract but he is expected as #1 pick in draft to be at top of league but I feel he is looking like Carson... good not great.. i want him to prove me wrong but has not yet...

[P W]

Get a young QB an OL and he stands a chance at becoming a veteran starting QB. Leave a young QB exposed long enough in his developmental process and he becomes a QB that hears phantom footsteps, never looks comfortable in a pocket, and makes rash decisions. Hopefully the Bengals Front Office gets serious in the upcoming offseason about getting Burrow some real OL help. The ints will go down. If.

[TheCincinnatiKid]

(11-07-2021, 08:23 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Well I wont sign off that he is the guy next 15 years.. at this point in his career, he probably will get a 2nd contract like Dalton but he is expected as #1 pick in draft to be much better than Andy, but I feel he is looking like Carson... good not great.. i wont him to prove me wrong but has not yet

Yeah I'd agree. Obviously right now nobody can sign him off as the guy for the next 15 years... we drafted him in the hope he's the messiah, and if that's the case then he'll be our guy for 15 years. We definitely can't sit here waiting for 15 years for him to be great for sure. He's gotta come up with the goods in the early years too.

So far I think he's still a very promising QB for us. I think he could be a great one. But it's possible he won't too, just too early to tell. The question I guess we need to ask is where does he fit when you compare him in Year 2, to Dalton/Palmer in Year 2? If he's going to be the guy, he's going to have to be a lot better than both of those two. 

[Shake n Blake]

Is Burrow a trash QB? Of course not.

Are the INTs an issue? Absolutely.

[Joelist]

The INTs are a HUGE problem right now and blot everything else out. And to make it worse you can't point to outside causes on most of them - they are plain poor decisions. He's also been responsible for a good portion of his sacks by not moving in the pocket and also holding the ball too long. Yes he has had some good plays but the bad outweighs them right now. Nor does it matter how many games he has played - he is a paid professional and needs to be held to the standard of a #1OA pick.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(11-07-2021, 08:27 PM)P W Wrote: Get a young QB an OL and he stands a chance at becoming a veteran starting QB. Leave a young QB exposed long enough in his developmental process and he becomes a QB that hears phantom footsteps, never looks comfortable in a pocket, and makes rash decisions. Hopefully the Bengals Front Office gets serious in the upcoming offseason about getting Burrow some real OL help. The ints will go down. If.

LOL

I think that we've had this discussion before but they wanted a WR to open up the field and then hope he survives the season with not enough added to the O-line from one of the deepest O-line drafts in recent memory.

[Frank Booth]

(11-07-2021, 08:49 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: LOL

I think that we've had this discussion before but they wanted a WR to open up the field and then hope he survives the season with not enough added to the O-line from one of the deepest O-line drafts in recent memory.

Now he’s getting killed and forcing it to Chase

not good

[P W]

(11-07-2021, 08:49 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: LOL

I think that we've had this discussion before but they wanted a WR to open up the field and then hope he survives the season with not enough added to the O-line from one of the deepest O-line drafts in recent memory.

unfortunately, i figure the odds are pretty good we'll all have this discussion again before next training camp. hope springs eternal though, and maybe the front office will finally make a commitment to protecting the franchise qb.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(11-07-2021, 08:12 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: 11 Ints after this week might lead the NFL. many at crucial times. we can really discuss the elephant in the room with decision making

Again, people just showing their ignorance with comments like this. The decision making was fine on both INT’s. The reads were correct. Both throws were just inaccurate. The pick 6 was late and inside, and the 2nd one was a tad behind Chase. Neither were a matter of bad decisions or not reading the coverage, they just weren’t good throws.