The regression of Jessie Bates

[GreenCornBengal]

(11-02-2021, 01:14 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Yeah I was worried the "best safety in the league" talk was premature, and at this rate I'm glad we didn't overpay. Another good call by a FO that has been knocking everything out of the park lately.

I think Bates settles in as a "plus" safety, but not the top guy many thought he was. Hopefully he lowers his asking price accordingly.

He still deserves a big pay day, a lot of what Bates does isn’t reflected on the stat sheet. I’m hoping he reconsiders his position, but I’m sure there are teams out there willing to break the bank for him.

[Shake n Blake]

(11-02-2021, 01:28 AM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: He still deserves a big pay day, a lot of what Bates does isn’t reflected on the stat sheet. I’m hoping he reconsiders his position, but I’m sure there are teams out there willing to break the bank for him.

Only time will tell. Sometimes I've seen the boards drastically overrate a guys value on the open market (Gresham, Andre Smith, DreKirk and many more come to mind) and then other times I've been surprised about people being correct (Carl Lawson last year for example).

We'll see.

[sonofstat]

So far its not been his best 7 games but he has been a real productive, sometimes excellent safety for the 3 years previous. I like the guy.

I would be MUCH more worried if he had 3 bad seasons then in 7 games in a contract year was suddenly great.

He is a proven quality player , still very young and has played 16 games every year to date...if you do not extend a Bates who do you extend?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(11-02-2021, 06:01 AM)sonofstat Wrote: I would be MUCH more worried if he had 3 bad seasons then in 7 games in a contract year was suddenly great.

I mean, he did have a pretty bad 2019. 14.5% missed tackle rate, 100.1 QB Rating allowed.

If you put stock in PFF, he had a 61.2 in 2019, and he has a 61.4 in 2021. So this year isn't actually a regression so much as a return to norm and it's 2020 that was the oddity.

So far it's been... Good Year, Bad Year, Great Year, Mediocre Year.

Really not sure what to expect from Bates in the future if you sign him long term which is why all offseason I was against paying him as a Top-3 S. I still think the answer is to franchise tag him for 2022 and see if that sheds any more light on what you have in Bates. There's plenty of value in an above average safety. It's just $9m/yr value rather than $17m/yr value.

Funny thing is I think I would have been fine with $12m/yr this offseason, but he wanted top safety money and now I think $12m/yr is an overpay. Offer him a 4yr/$36m deal in the offseason and if he turns it down, tag him.

[J24]

(11-02-2021, 12:35 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I haven't noticed him chasing too many WRs around after the catch and i've seen him hitting the shit out of a bunch of guys this year. 

Here we are with another 'context is more important than bottom line numbers'. Up until the last couple weeks, Bell and Bates were both top 10 graded safeties. I'm not really too worried about him right now.

Agreed!

(11-02-2021, 01:14 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Yeah I was worried the "best safety in the league" talk was premature, and at this rate I'm glad we didn't overpay. Another good call by a FO that has been knocking everything out of the park lately.

I think Bates settles in as a "plus" safety, but not the top guy many thought he was. Hopefully he lowers his asking price accordingly.

Shake he was the best Safety in the league by all metrics last season and he has been a consistent player for us in during his career here.

His first three seasons in the league he averaged 3 INTs, 10 pass breakups, and a 106 tackles a season. 

[Shake n Blake]

(11-02-2021, 12:42 PM)J24 Wrote: Shake he was the best Safety in the league by all metrics last season and he has been a consistent player for us in during his career here.

His first three seasons in the league he averaged 3 INTs, 10 pass breakups, and a 106 tackles a season. 

See Leonard Leap's post above. That explains my feelings 100%.

[grampahol]

As long as they aren't paying him out of my bank account I don't really care what they pay him.. Once it has to come from my bank account he's a complete bum!

[CJD]

PFF isn't the end all be all. They make a lot of assumptions in what they think each player's role is and can often attribute a coverage failure to someone because they were the closest player to the receiver rather than based on the actual culprit in the play (for example, if a CB is supposed to go one on one with a receiver and Bates is the single high, if the CB plays incorrectly and drops into a short zone, allowing their receiver to catch a pass underneath Bates' zone, with him being the closest player, they would likely count that reception against Bates rather than the CB) but there's no doubt he has chosen the wrong time to have a more "average" season at safety. If he wants top dollar, like he has said in his press conferences, he needs to step it up in the 2nd half of the season.

[*SHRacerX*]

(11-01-2021, 07:07 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote:

I know Bengals twitter loves Jessie Bates. I think he is a key part of this defense and future of the franchise as well. But facts are facts, and right now, he ain't getting it done. Of 93 qual. Safeties:

61.4 PFF Grade (53rd)
12.7% MT rate (T-41st)
113.2 Pass Rtg All. (32nd)

— Andrew Russell (@PFF_AndrewR) November 1, 2021

Only 1 PD and 1 INT in the 7 games he’s played.

A bit of a step back would be one thing, but he’s been flat out bad in a lot of these games. It will be very interesting to see how the team handles his contract negotiations if this continues. I’m a big fan of the guy, and I honestly have no idea what’s going on with him, but I hope he turns it on in the 2nd half of the season.

I can only think of one deep shot to Devonta Adams that was completed.  Maybe it is time to have Bates defend more closer to the line of scrimmage and not always playing center field.   Teams simply don't challenge him, but then as the Jets showed the world, you don't have to.  Our coverage by the LBs was awful.  

[fredtoast]

(11-01-2021, 07:23 PM)Sled21 Wrote:  I've never seen a place where a lose seems to kill brain cells. 

Apparently a win does the same thing.

I seem to remember someone mocking the idea that the Jets game could be statement about our coaching.

[Whatever]

(11-02-2021, 06:35 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I mean, he did have a pretty bad 2019. 14.5% missed tackle rate, 100.1 QB Rating allowed.

If you put stock in PFF, he had a 61.2 in 2019, and he has a 61.4 in 2021. So this year isn't actually a regression so much as a return to norm and it's 2020 that was the oddity.

So far it's been... Good Year, Bad Year, Great Year, Mediocre Year.

Really not sure what to expect from Bates in the future if you sign him long term which is why all offseason I was against paying him as a Top-3 S. I still think the answer is to franchise tag him for 2022 and see if that sheds any more light on what you have in Bates. There's plenty of value in an above average safety. It's just $9m/yr value rather than $17m/yr value.

Funny thing is I think I would have been fine with $12m/yr this offseason, but he wanted top safety money and now I think $12m/yr is an overpay. Offer him a 4yr/$36m deal in the offseason and if he turns it down, tag him.

Thing is, the reason S salaries are down is that there's really no shortage of quality starters in the NFL, but very few game changers. If you're paying top dollar for a S, they better be a Reed/Polamalu type, which Bates isn't.

I mean, if we're talking that kind of money, who would you rather have, Bates or Brandon Scherff?  Scherff has demonstrated year after year that he's an elite RG.  Bates has been an elite S one out of 4 years.

On top of that, we will have huge extensions coming due for Burrow and Chase during the life of a hypothetical Bates extension.  That's going to add a lot of strain to cap management.  Can't drop that kind of money on an ok to good FS.

[XenoMorph]

has it been all season or since he hurt his neck.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(11-03-2021, 10:34 AM)Whatever Wrote: Thing is, the reason S salaries are down is that there's really no shortage of quality starters in the NFL, but very few game changers. If you're paying top dollar for a S, they better be a Reed/Polamalu type, which Bates isn't.

I mean, if we're talking that kind of money, who would you rather have, Bates or Brandon Scherff?  Scherff has demonstrated year after year that he's an elite RG.  Bates has been an elite S one out of 4 years.

On top of that, we will have huge extensions coming due for Burrow and Chase during the life of a hypothetical Bates extension.  That's going to add a lot of strain to cap management.  Can't drop that kind of money on an ok to good FS.

S salaries aren't down. There are 8 making $14m/yr or more in 2021. In 2019, that number was 3.

In comparison, there are only 4 Guards making $14m/yr or more in 2021 and one of them (Scherff who you mentioned) is on a franchise tag.

I agree with most of your post, though.

[TecmoBengals]

As a couple others have posted in this thread, I have no issue with the Brown family spending a lot of money on players or even overpaying a player if not detrimental to the overall roster & salary cap management.

My question, should the money go to Bates or are there free agents for the upcoming '22 period that the Bengals should throw the money at instead? Think of the Lawson situation. One could argue dollars were reallocated from him to sign Hendrickson. Could something similar happen in the upcoming offseason? So how does this play out for Bates? Pay him or use the money for a different player or players?

[fredtoast]

We know Bates can play at an elite level.

I believe it is pretty rare for a player to just decide not to play as well as possible. Even if it was NOT a contract year players have big egos and don't want to look bad.

So the question is "Why" has Bates performance (or stats and rating) dropped this year. Is it injury or change in scheme/assignment, or something else.

The main reason I expected us to re-sign Bates this year was the way the team was pumping him up and marketing him as a rising star and face of the franchise. I don't know which side to blame for it not happening but we could still outbid other teams for him this off-season and come out ahead because we had him for peanuts this year. Bates may be upset that we did not work out an extension but that will all be forgiven if we pay him more than any other team.

I felt Bates deserved a good contract. He is young and played great last year. But I did not feel he should be the top paid safety in the league.

[Frank Booth]

Bates is 4th or even 5th on my priority re-signing list. And I hate that a lot of fans are doing the "Mike Brown MUST pay Bates" crap. Reiff is gonna need a new deal, Hendrickson, if Hilton or Awuzie are on 1 year contracts, they need to be signed. I put all these guys ahead of Bates

[TecmoBengals]

(11-03-2021, 12:23 PM)fredtoast Wrote: We know Bates can play at an elite level.

I believe it is pretty rare for a player to just decide not to play as well as possible. Even if it was NOT a contract year players have big egos and don't want to look bad.

So the question is "Why" has Bates performance (or stats and rating) dropped this year. Is it injury or change in scheme/assignment, or something else.

The main reason I expected us to re-sign Bates this year was the way the team was pumping him up and marketing him as a rising star and face of the franchise. I don't which side to blame for it not happening but we could still outbid other teams for him this off-season and still come out ahead because we had him for peanuts this year. Bates may be upset that we did not work out an extension but that will all be forgiven if we pay him more than any other team.

I felt Bates deserved a good contract. He is young and played great last year. But I did not feel he should be the top paid safety in the league.

Good point. I know for a CB, the best defensive back can also be made irrelevant for stats because the opposing offense is afraid to throw their way, but I don't think that's as much a factor for Safeties? I'm trying to look for the good to give Bates a benefit of the doubt for his supposed decline in production.

Also, one lesser season doesn't mean he's done for as a player, he could bounce back next season if more healthy, etc. etc. I'd be happy if the Bengals extend him.

[*Synric*]

(11-03-2021, 12:26 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: Good point. I know for a CB, the best defensive back can also be made irrelevant for stats because the opposing offense is afraid to throw their way, but I don't think that's as much a factor for Safeties? I'm trying to look for the good to give Bates a benefit of the doubt for his supposed decline in production.

Also, one lesser season doesn't mean he's done for as a player, he could bounce back next season if more healthy, etc. etc. I'd be happy if the Bengals extend him.

When the defense is playing well in front of the deep safety that limits the opportunities for them to make impact plays. This doesn't mean Bates isnt an intergal part of the defense. What Bates does on the back end allows alot more variety in the defensive scheme. Jessie Bates is still playing at a high level but what he is doing is going unnoticed because of the great play of the rest of the defense.

[TecmoBengals]

(11-03-2021, 12:43 PM)Synric Wrote: When the defense is playing well in front of the deep safety that limits the opportunities for them to make impact plays. This doesn't mean Bates isnt an intergal part of the defense. What Bates does on the back end allows alot more variety in the defensive scheme. Jessie Bates is still playing at a high level but what he is doing is going unnoticed because of the great play of the rest of the defense.

Which then suggests Bates isn't regressing as the tweet in the first post indicates? PFF_Andrew just needed some clicks and made an edgy tweet?

[*Synric*]

(11-03-2021, 12:48 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: Which then suggests Bates isn't regressing as the tweet in the first post indicates? PFF_Andrew just needed some clicks and made an edgy tweet?

PFF grades plays. Right now Bates isn't getting alot of opportunities to make tons of impact plays... mostly because the linebackers/Bell are playing way better than they did in previous years. Because of this it makes plays like Bates missed tackles more pronounced and reduces his rating.

Look at Bates Passes Defensed last season alot of them were coming downhill disrupting plays over the middle by either big hits or getting his hands on them. This year the linebackers are playing alot better in coverage which shrinks that window for QBs to throw into in those zones forcing them to look elsewhere.