Bengals Winning Formula on Offense this Year

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-22-2021, 07:00 PM)N_B Wrote: You should take the L, or just do more research

It kind of cracks me up that people look at such a simplistic, irrelevant stat and try to correlate something.

The defense this year is a huge part of why the team is 8-6 at this point. 

If you take the defensive scores from each game this year and put them in the same weeks for last years games, the Bengals have a 7-7 record at this same point last year. If you take the Bengals average for PA this year and plug it in every week for last year...the Bengals have the exact same 7-7 record at this time last year. Way better than the 3-10-1 record they actually had. 

21.6 PPG on defense this year. 26.5 PPG last year. 5 more points per game. Give them the same PPG for this year and this years record is 6-8. In those 6 wins Burrow attempted 27, 29, 38, 34, 29 and 24 passes. 

Number of runs vs throws, to try and correlate wins and losses this year or any year is silly. 

[N_B]

(12-22-2021, 07:29 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: It kind of cracks me up that people look at such a simplistic, irrelevant stat and try to correlate something.

The defense this year is a huge part of why the team is 8-6 at this point. 

If you take the defensive scores from each game this year and put them in the same weeks for last years games, the Bengals have a 7-7 record at this same point last year. If you take the Bengals average for PA this year and plug it in every week for last year...the Bengals have the exact same 7-7 record at this time last year. Way better than the 3-10-1 record they actually had. 

21.6 PPG on defense this year. 26.5 PPG last year. 5 more points per game. Give them the same PPG for this year and this years record is 6-8. In those 6 wins Burrow attempted 27, 29, 38, 34, 29 and 24 passes. 

Number of runs vs throws, to try and correlate wins and losses this year or any year is silly. 

Rfaulk - what was the halftime score of our wins, on average? My guess is it mirrored the results of the contest for the full game. In wins, compare runs vs passes. Then make some sort of half assed determination on that. It’s simple, but miles better than the originally analysis put forth.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-22-2021, 07:29 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: It kind of cracks me up that people look at such a simplistic, irrelevant stat and try to correlate something.

The defense this year is a huge part of why the team is 8-6 at this point. 

If you take the defensive scores from each game this year and put them in the same weeks for last years games, the Bengals have a 7-7 record at this same point last year. If you take the Bengals average for PA this year and plug it in every week for last year...the Bengals have the exact same 7-7 record at this time last year. Way better than the 3-10-1 record they actually had. 

21.6 PPG on defense this year. 26.5 PPG last year. 5 more points per game. Give them the same PPG for this year and this years record is 6-8. In those 6 wins Burrow attempted 27, 29, 38, 34, 29 and 24 passes. 

Number of runs vs throws, to try and correlate wins and losses this year or any year is silly. 

Good stuff Rfaulk, yeah, the Defense is the biggest reason we are this much better this season as a team.

Balance is needed though on Offense and it sure helps that the OL is a much better run blocking unit this season.

[Essex Johnson]

(12-22-2021, 07:29 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: It kind of cracks me up that people look at such a simplistic, irrelevant stat and try to correlate something.

The defense this year is a huge part of why the team is 8-6 at this point. 

If you take the defensive scores from each game this year and put them in the same weeks for last years games, the Bengals have a 7-7 record at this same point last year. If you take the Bengals average for PA this year and plug it in every week for last year...the Bengals have the exact same 7-7 record at this time last year. Way better than the 3-10-1 record they actually had. 

21.6 PPG on defense this year. 26.5 PPG last year. 5 more points per game. Give them the same PPG for this year and this years record is 6-8. In those 6 wins Burrow attempted 27, 29, 38, 34, 29 and 24 passes. 

Number of runs vs throws, to try and correlate wins and losses this year or any year is silly. 

It is silly to not see a balance offense has contributed to winning this season ..

[N_B]

(12-22-2021, 10:49 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: It is silly to not see a balance offense has contributed to winning this season ..

But you haven’t proven anything. You’re just putting out basic stats and confusing loose correlation with causation.

Don’t just go by eyeballs. Back it up

[Tony]

(12-20-2021, 11:02 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: We now stand 6-0 I believe when we rush over 24 or more times and pass for less than 30.  we have  11 passing tds and 2 Ints in those 6 wins, when we have thrown for 30 or more attempts we have 5 losses, in those losses i believe we have 10 Tds passing and 9 ints.

Many pointed out last year we were just throwing too much and I agree.. this year a balance offense so far is the formula for success, hope ZT keeps that formula going with tough defenses of Baltimore and Cleveland ahead.

I'm starting to think, you have something against Joe Burrow.......

[Tony]

(12-20-2021, 03:59 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Same way I feel. Us winning a game like yesterdays means more to me than say us blowing a team out.

That is probably the best Defense we will face this year. The difference is honestly we have a good D ourselves and we can be 
explosive on Offense at any time as the Boyd TD shown. Take care of the ball on Offense and we can beat anybody. Hope Joe
is figuring this out, think he is. When Burrow doesn't turn the ball over we are good, real good.

Lou deserves a lot of credit. He made Eli Apple and cast off LBS work..

[Tony]

Nome of this matters. You take what that particular defense is giving you that week. They are all different..

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-22-2021, 11:04 PM)Tony Wrote: Lou deserves a lot of credit. He made Eli Apple and cast off LBS work..

He does, Apple IS talented though and Golden also deserves a lot of credit with what he has done with the LB's.

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-22-2021, 10:49 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: It is silly to not see a balance offense has contributed to winning this season ..

Here's every win, loss and tie for the last 2 years that Joe Burrow played a full game in. Please point out where all this "balance" is. 

2020
Team name, pass attempts, run attempts, yards rushing, difference in run/pass. 
-----
(L)
lac 36/28 122 (-8)
cle 61/24 68  (-37)
blt 30/28 70  (-2)
ind 39/32 98  (-7)
cle 29/22 82  (-7)
pit 40/21 139 (-19)

(T)
phi 44/18 48 (-26)

(W)
jax 40/20 89 (-20)
ten 30/29 218 (-1) 


2021
-----
(L)
chi 30/20 69  (-10)
gb 38/24 103 ot (-14)
nyj 35/16 41 (-19)
cle 42/23 85 (-19)
lac 40/25 96 (-15)
sf 34/26 86 ot (-8)

(W)
min 27/36 149 ot (+9) 
pit 18/24 96 (+6)
jax 32/22 78 (-10)
det 30/36 142 (+6) 
bal 38/24 111 (-14)
lvr 29/38 159 (+9) 
pit 25/38 198 (+13)
den 22/26 113 (+4)

In the 2 wins of 2020, 1 win had only a -1 imbalance (almost perfectly balanced) and 1 win had a -20 run/pass ratio. Of the 6 losses in 2020, 4 of them had an imbalance of -8 run/pass ratio (not far off being balanced). 

In the 8 wins of 2021, only 5 of them had a +9 or less run/pass ratio and 3 of them had a +/- ratio of 10 or more. Of the 6 losses in 2021, 5 of them had an imbalance of  -10 or greater run/pass ratio. One of them had a -8 imbalance. 

23 games. 12 of them had an imbalance of +/- 10 or greater ratio. 

The 2 most run-heavy teams this year, Eagles and Titans (52% and 50%), are 7-7 and 9-5. 
The 2 most pass-heavy teams this year, Bucs and Jets (66% and 63%), are 10-4 and 3-11. 

The "average" (16th place) team, Seahawks, has a run/pass ratio of 43% to 56% and they're 5-9.
The Bengals (10th place) team, has a run/pass ratio of 45% to 53% and they're 8-6. 

Bills 8-6, Chargers 8-6, Steelers 7-6-1, Chiefs 10-4, Raiders 7-7, Buccaneers 10-4, all throw it 60% of the time or more. 

There is ZERO correlation between simply having a "balanced" attack and winning. Teams should be striving for an effective running game with a 4.5ypc average or better and a run/pass ratio of around 45% to 55%. 

[Shake n Blake]

^^^ All I see is that we're 7-3 when we rush for 100+ yards and 1-4-1 when we throw 40+ times. Yeah yeah, correlation vs causation.. but I think there's a liiiittle something to it. Not that winning and losing 100% hinges on it.

People act like running the ball don't matter. If so, why we pay Mixon? No one is saying we need to run 40 times every week and forget Joe Burrow.

Just that balance is important. People seemed to agree with that after we chucked it around 40 times per game last year and went nowhere (even just looking at the offense alone).

[RiverRat13]

(12-22-2021, 07:26 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Burrow is throwing fewer passes because the team is getting ahead more often. 11th in Points Allowed this year compared to 22nd in Points Allowed past year.

Bengals were 17th in rushing attempts last year, with 411. 25.6875 attempts per game.
This year, Bengals are 16th in rushing attempts, with 378. 27 attempts per game.

Two other factors for fewer pass attempts:

1. A high percentage of 3 and outs.

2. A high number of big plays.

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-23-2021, 12:26 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: ^^^ All I see is that we're 7-3 when we rush for 100+ yards and 1-4-1 when we throw 40+ times. Yeah yeah, correlation vs causation.. but I think there's a liiiittle something to it.

People act like running the ball don't matter. If so, why we pay Mixon? No one is saying we need to run 40 times every week and forget Joe Burrow.

Just that balance is important. People seemed to agree with that after we chucked it around 40 times per game last year and went nowhere (even just looking at the offense alone).

Balance, in itself, has no correlation. There has to be effective running--as you pointed out in the beginning of your post--for the run game to be causitive. Unless, of course, the QB throws it 40 times for 400 yds and 4 TDs. The running game can average 1.2ypc and the QB can throw 15 times for 98 yards and if the defense shuts the opponent out, the other stuff doesn't matter. 

For this specific Bengals team, the defense (1st and foremost) + Sir-kicks-a-lot + an at times balling Burrow and/or an effective running game has been the thing that has lead to so many more wins. It has nothing to do with running the ball 25 times and passing the ball 25 times. 

So, anyway, check this out. 

In wins this year, Mixon had ypc averages of: 4.38, 5.00, 4.19, 5.22, 4.92, 4.10, 5.89, 3.41
In losses this year, Mixon had ypc averages of: 3.45, 3.30, 2.36, 4.92, 2.84, 3.22
See a trend there? One outlier in each instance and consistency in all the others. 

[Shake n Blake]

(12-23-2021, 12:59 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Balance, in itself, has no correlation. There has to be effective running--as you pointed out in the beginning of your post--for the run game to be causitive. Unless, of course, the QB throws it 40 times for 400 yds and 4 TDs. The running game can average 1.2ypc and the QB can throw 15 times for 98 yards and if the defense shuts the opponent out, the other stuff doesn't matter. 

For this specific Bengals team, the defense (1st and foremost) + Sir-kicks-a-lot + an at times balling Burrow and/or an effective running game has been the thing that has lead to so many more wins. It has nothing to do with running the ball 25 times and passing the ball 25 times. 

So, anyway, check this out. 

In wins this year, Mixon had ypc averages of: 4.38, 5.00, 4.19, 5.22, 4.92, 4.10, 5.89, 3.41
In losses this year, Mixon had ypc averages of: 3.45, 3.30, 2.36, 4.92, 2.84, 3.22
See a trend there? One outlier in each instance and consistency in all the others. 

Fair enough. Generally speaking, I like balance. It has to be effective too, though. Good balance helps. Especially in a cold weather division with no domes. It seems like the most successful teams in the AFCN have been able to run very effectively and are balanced at least.

Pitt and Balt have had some success in years where their QB threw 620+ times, but it never seems to end well when they have. Also, it seems like that's league wide when it gets towards January. Not very often do you see QBs just carving up playoff level defenses in cold weather.

Not saying it never happens. I just think teams grow more balanced late in the year. I could be wrong about that though.

[J24]

(12-22-2021, 06:32 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think people expected that if so much was going to be invested in the passing game (specifically with drafting Chase after drafting Higgins the year before), the team would pass more than they do.
Burrow is 15th in pass attempts at 435. Brady is at 602. Mahomes at 549. Herbert 542.

I'm not opposed to being balanced, and I like when the running game works, but I don't know if I would have drafted another WR so early if I wasn't planning to be pass-heavy.

 The best thing for a running game is a good passing game and the best thing for a passing game is a good Running game. Over relying on one or the other leads to major problems for the offense.

Also the pass attempts are overrated because of the efficiency and big plays that are coming from the passing game this season. We're not a dink and dunk offense anymore.

[reuben.ahmed]

i wonder what our record would be without chase, seems like he won us 3 games this year without checkin game log

[KillerGoose]

(12-23-2021, 03:09 AM)J24 Wrote:  The best thing for a running game is a good passing game and the best thing for a passing game is a good Running game. Over relying on one or the other leads to major problems for the offense.

Also the pass attempts are overrated because of the efficiency and big plays that are coming from the passing game this season. We're not a dink and dunk offense anymore.

Passing game success and running game success are independent of each other - a good rushing attack doesn't help your passing offense in any meaningful way. Defensive coordinators make their calls based on the personnel of the offense, so if you have ambiguous personnel on the field, it makes the DC job more difficult. 

[Shake n Blake]

(12-23-2021, 03:22 AM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: i wonder what our record would be without chase, seems like he won us 3 games this year without checkin game log

He also probably lost us a couple, tbh.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-23-2021, 12:59 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Balance, in itself, has no correlation. There has to be effective running--as you pointed out in the beginning of your post--for the run game to be causitive. Unless, of course, the QB throws it 40 times for 400 yds and 4 TDs. The running game can average 1.2ypc and the QB can throw 15 times for 98 yards and if the defense shuts the opponent out, the other stuff doesn't matter. 

For this specific Bengals team, the defense (1st and foremost) + Sir-kicks-a-lot + an at times balling Burrow and/or an effective running game has been the thing that has lead to so many more wins. It has nothing to do with running the ball 25 times and passing the ball 25 times. 

So, anyway, check this out. 

In wins this year, Mixon had ypc averages of: 4.38, 5.00, 4.19, 5.22, 4.92, 4.10, 5.89, 3.41
In losses this year, Mixon had ypc averages of: 3.45, 3.30, 2.36, 4.92, 2.84, 3.22
See a trend there? One outlier in each instance and consistency in all the others. 

Yeah, in the end execution is really what matters and taking what the Defense gives you. 

If you run the ball all the time at 1.8 YPC it doesn't really matter that much except for making the D think about the run.