Awards Vegas odds

[wcu]

Here's where our boys odds to win awards stand according to Vegas Insider.  Some of them are much closer than many of us have been lead to believe.  

2021-22 NFL MVP ODDS
CONTENDERS TO WIN 2021-22 NFL MVP (2/5/22)
Player (Team) Odds
Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) -400
Tom Brady (Tampa Bay) +500
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati) +1000
Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis) +1600
Cooper Kupp (L.A. Rams) +2000

2021 NFL OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR ODDS
CONTENDERS TO WIN 2021 NFL OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR (2/6/22)
Player (Team) Odds
Ja'Marr Chase (Cincinnati) -225
Mac Jones (New England) +175

2021-22 NFL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR ODDS
CONTENDERS TO WIN 2021-22 NFL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR (2/5/22)
Player (Team) Odds
Dak Prescott (Dallas) -250
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati) +175
Nick Bosa (San Francisco) +6500
Carson Wentz (Indianapolis) +10000

2021-22 NFL COACH OF THE YEAR ODDS
CONTENDERS TO WIN 2021-22 NFL COACH OF THE YEAR (2/5/22)
Player (Team) Odds
Matt Lafleur (Green Bay) +140
Zac Taylor (Cincinnati) +140
Mike Vrabel (Tennessee) +350
Bill Belichick (New England) +2500

[CJD]

I think Chase, Burrow and ZT should all win the latter 3 awards. MVP is Rodgers' though, in my opinion.

Burrow is not only coming back from a worse injury (multiple ligament tears and potential structural knee damage vs a fractured and dislocated ankle) on a shorter time line (Dak was injured October 11th, Burrow was injured November 22nd), but he's also had better stats (389 of 569, 68.4% 4154, 7.3 ypa, 32 TD, 10 INT, 100.9 QB Rating vs 366 of 520, 70.4% 4611, 8.9 ypa, 34 TD, 14 INT, 108.3 QB rating) and has led his team farther than expected (Dallas was expected to compete for the playoffs and potentially the super bowl, the Bengals were expected to bottom out the AFC North). I don't even think it's a contest, to be honest. The only reason to give Dak that award over Joe is big city bias.

For Chase vs Mac, Chase is breaking records, Mac isn't. That alone is enough of an argument. He is doing things only 1 or 2 players have ever done, whereas Mac is just, you know...fine. Good for a rookie but nowhere near as good as Chase. Last year, the excuse that was given for Herbert winning it over Jefferson was that Herbert was also breaking records. That isn't the case this year and Chase has unequivocally outperformed Jefferson's season last year. If they give this award to Mac, they should just rename the award "Rookie Quarterback of the year" because it will have lost all meaning.

As for Coach of the year, I think this award is about exceeding expectations. If it was strictly about success (which would be the case if they gave it to Lafleur), then they'd just award it to the super bowl champion (or one of the #1 seed teams) coach every year. Marvin Lewis won the award in 2009 because he took a 4-11-1 team and made the playoffs the following year. Like with Burrow, taking a team that people were predicting to be at the bottom of the AFC north and winning the division with them is what this award is all about, in my opinion. Kevan Stefanski in 2020, John Harbaugh in 2019, Matt Nagy in 2018, Sean McVay in 2017, Jason Garrett in 2016, Ron Rivera in 2015 etc. Almost all of these coaches were awarded because they exceeded expectations, not because they met already high expectations.

[fredtoast]

Eagles Nick Sirianni should be coach of the year hands down. Shocked that he is not even listed among the favorites.

Eagles have $62 million DEAD CAP SPACE and $18 million in unused cap space. Those are mind boggling numbers.

For comparison sake the Bengals have $15 million of dead cap space and $6.9 million unused cap space.

The Eagles were TRYING TO TANK and right now Sirianni has them in the playoffs.

[Au165]

(01-03-2022, 04:27 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Eagles Nick Sirianni should be coach of the year hands down.  Shocked that he is not even listed among the favorites.

Eagles have $62 million DEAD CAP SPACE and $18 million in unused cap space.  Those are mind boggling numbers.

For comparison sake the Bengals have $15 million of dead cap space and $6.9 million unused cap space.

The Eagles were TRYING TO TANK and right now Sirianni has them in the playoffs.

They haven't beat a team with a winning record, you have made it very clear this season, multiple times, that it matters.

[RiverRat13]

Both the Bengals and Eagles had 6.5 wins for their preseason over/under, so expectations were similar for both teams. The Bengals have one more win in a tougher division. But Sirianni has done it with Jalen Hurts as his QB. I can see an argument for both Sirianni and Taylor.

[*Synric*]

What Mike Vrabel has done with a beat up team has been amazing. They have been missing their star running back for half the season and their top 2 receivers for a large chunk of it. The Titans are now 1 win away from the #1 Seed and about to get healthy on offense right before the playoffs.

[wcu]

(01-03-2022, 04:17 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I think Chase, Burrow and ZT should all win the latter 3 awards. MVP is Rodgers' though, in my opinion.

Burrow is not only coming back from a worse injury (multiple ligament tears and potential structural knee damage vs a fractured and dislocated ankle) on a shorter time line (Dak was injured October 11th, Burrow was injured November 22nd), but he's also had better stats (389 of 569, 68.4% 4154, 7.3 ypa, 32 TD, 10 INT, 100.9 QB Rating vs 366 of 520, 70.4% 4611, 8.9 ypa, 34 TD, 14 INT, 108.3 QB rating) and has led his team farther than expected (Dallas was expected to compete for the playoffs and potentially the super bowl, the Bengals were expected to bottom out the AFC North). I don't even think it's a contest, to be honest. The only reason to give Dak that award over Joe is big city bias.

For Chase vs Mac, Chase is breaking records, Mac isn't. That alone is enough of an argument. He is doing things only 1 or 2 players have ever done, whereas Mac is just, you know...fine. Good for a rookie but nowhere near as good as Chase. Last year, the excuse that was given for Herbert winning it over Jefferson was that Herbert was also breaking records. That isn't the case this year and Chase has unequivocally outperformed Jefferson's season last year. If they give this award to Mac, they should just rename the award "Rookie Quarterback of the year" because it will have lost all meaning.

As for Coach of the year, I think this award is about exceeding expectations. If it was strictly about success (which would be the case if they gave it to Lafleur), then they'd just award it to the super bowl champion (or one of the #1 seed teams) coach every year. Marvin Lewis won the award in 2009 because he took a 4-11-1 team and made the playoffs the following year. Like with Burrow, taking a team that people were predicting to be at the bottom of the AFC north and winning the division with them is what this award is all about, in my opinion. Kevan Stefanski in 2020, John Harbaugh in 2019, Matt Nagy in 2018, Sean McVay in 2017, Jason Garrett in 2016, Ron Rivera in 2015 etc. Almost all of these coaches were awarded because they exceeded expectations, not because they met already high expectations.

The Burrow / Prescott thing really kills me.  I don't see how anyone could logically look at the facts you just described and say that Dak Prescott deserves that award over Joe Burrow.  I really wish that there was some expert/voter/whatever that could explain what we're missing here.

[fredtoast]

(01-03-2022, 04:32 PM)Au165 Wrote: They haven't beat a team with a winning record, you have made it very clear this season, multiple times, that it matters.

If everything else was equal it would matter a lot.  But what I am looking at is a coach who is working with a huge handicap.

Eagles only have 2 players with a cap hit over $6.6 million while Bengals have 5.

Eagles only have 5 players with a cap hit over $3.7 million (ridiculous low number) while the Bengals have 13.

[Au165]

(01-03-2022, 05:07 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If everything else was equal it would matter a lot.  But what I am looking at is a coach who is working with a huge handicap.

Eagles only have 2 players with a cap hit over $6.6 million while Bengals have 5.

Eagles only have 5 players with a cap hit over $3.7 million (ridiculous low number) while the Bengals have 13.

They essentially are the best of the worst. They have not had a win over anyone who will be picking before pick 11 currently in the draft. He can be doing well for circumstances but that doesn't change the fact his bad team beat up on literally the worst teams in the league. Congrats on that I guess...

[The Clapp]

(01-03-2022, 05:07 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If everything else was equal it would matter a lot.  But what I am looking at is a coach who is working with a huge handicap.

Eagles only have 2 players with a cap hit over $6.6 million while Bengals have 5.

Eagles only have 5 players with a cap hit over $3.7 million (ridiculous low number) while the Bengals have 13.

if you go by that logic.. The Coach for one team was able to recruit and sign better players than the coach for the other team... right?

[Shake n Blake]

Hot take that really shouldn't be that hot: Burrow has outplayed Rodgers.

Burrow is completing a higher % of throws (70.3%) than Aaron (68.6%).
The attempts are virtually the same (520 to 513), yet Joe has a whopping 634 more yards.
TDs are the same (34 to 35)

The only thing Rodgers beats Burrow on is fewer INTs, but that's at a cost. He's making way fewer big plays than Burrow. OK, maybe "outplayed" is strong, but I'd say it's equal at least. More big plays but more INTs.

[fredtoast]

(01-03-2022, 05:13 PM)The Clapp Wrote: if you go by that logic.. The Coach for one team was able to recruit and sign better players than the coach for the other team... right?

I have no idea.

All I know is that Sirianna is doing almost as well as Taylor with less than half of the resources.  Also Sirianna did not have the benefit of the number one overall pick to get his franchise QB.

[*bfine32*]

(01-03-2022, 04:53 PM)wcu Wrote: The Burrow / Prescott thing really kills me.  I don't see how anyone could logically look at the facts you just described and say that Dak Prescott deserves that award over Joe Burrow.  I really wish that there was some expert/voter/whatever that could explain what we're missing here.

Remember this has 0 to do with "deserves" or "voters"; it's simply odds that Vegas has put on them.

If you think JB wins comeback player of the year the drop $100, when he wins you walk away with $275 or you can drop $100 on JC for ROY and walk away with $144. 

[fredtoast]

(01-03-2022, 05:15 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: The attempts are virtually the same (520 to 513), yet Joe has a whopping 634 more yards.


The only thing Rodgers beats Burrow on is fewer INTs, but that's at a cost. He's making way fewer big plays than Burrow.

Burrow's yards per attempt is only 14% better than Rodgers.

If that is "whopping" then what is Rodgers' 238% advantage in interception percentage?  And despite throwing far fewer interceptions Rodgers also has a higher td percentage than Joe.

It is no real insult to say that Rodgers is outplaying Burrow.  To me Rodgers is the most talented QB ever.  

[*michaelsean*]

Vrabel or Taylor. LaFleur? How do you get coach of the year with the reigning MVP?

Burrow just because I want an MVP who wasn’t selected for the Pro Bowl.

Chase because he should.

[Shake n Blake]

(01-03-2022, 05:27 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Burrow's yards per attempt is only 14% better than Rodgers.

If that is "whopping" then what is Rodgers' 238% advantage in interception percentage?  And despite throwing far fewer interceptions Rodgers also has a higher td percentage than Joe.

It is no real insult to say that Rodgers is outplaying Burrow.  To me Rodgers is the most talented QB ever.  

A difference of 1.1 per attempt is bigger than you're letting on.

Over the course of just 30 attempts, that's an extra 33 yard play, which is HUGE.

For every 30 attempts, Joe throws 0.81 INTs, while Rodgers throws 0.23.

So it comes down to what you value more: that extra 33 yard play? Or 0.58 less picks?

Nobody said its an insult. It's just that I'm not seeing the gap that everyone wants me to see just because it's "blasphemous" to dare compare a young QB to Sir Aaron.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

I agree with the first three as far as odds go, but the last one I don't.

Mike Vrabel lost Derrick Henry only 8 weeks in, got basically nothing from Julio Jones all year, and Tannehill regressed hard.... Yet the Titans are the #1 seed.

[Au165]

(01-03-2022, 05:27 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Burrow's yards per attempt is only 14% better than Rodgers.

It's weird to say it that way. Burrow to Rodgers is the same difference as Rodgers to Daniel Hones (25th in the league). When you look at the fact the highest in the league is 8.9 and the lowest full time starter is Trevor Lawrence at 6.0 it seems like you have left a lot of context out. So while technically true it's totally misleading. 

Not speaking to any Rodgers vs Burrow debate, just that the framing of "only 14%" seems disingenuous.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Our 2nd year QB is 3rd in MVP odds? What a time to be a Bengals fan.

As for OROY I will literally never take that award seriously again if Mac Jones gets it over Chase. Might as well make it the best rookie QB award. I thought Jefferson should have won it last year, and Chase has been even better than he was. Chase just put up more yards against the hottest defense in the league yesterday than Jones did against the lowly Jags. This race really shouldn’t even be close.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-03-2022, 06:08 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I agree with the first three as far as odds go, but the last one I don't.

Mike Vrabel lost Derrick Henry only 8 weeks in, got basically nothing from Julio Jones all year, and Tannehill regressed hard.... Yet the Titans are the #1 seed.

I won’t disagree at all if Vrabel wins it. It will be well deserved. But Tennessee was a playoff team last year. Taylor went from picking in the top 5 to division champs. I don’t think you can argue with giving it to him either.