Am I crazy for wanting the 4th seed?

[CJD]

The Chiefs play the Broncos on Saturday. For this exercise, let's assume they win that game. That eliminates the Bengals from the #1 seed. So now the only options are the 2 through 4 seeds.

The Titans play the Texans at the same time as we play the Browns. I think it's a safe assumption that Tennessee isn't upset with the #1 seed on the line by the Texans, so the #1 and #2 seed are most likely (let's call it 85 to 90% chance) set at Tennessee followed by Kansas City.

The most likely wild card teams (and AFC East winner) are the Chargers, Colts, Patriots and Bills. Unless both the Patriots and the Bills lose to the Dolphins and Jets, respectively, which is unlikely, there will be a 3rd 11 win team in the division winners.

If we beat the Browns, we are also an 11 game winner and likely 3rd seed, unless Buffalo loses and New England wins, in which case we're the 4th seed, with NE at 3rd.

Now, with all that groundwork laid, who we play in the wild card round is pretty hard to determine. Whether we sit in the 3rd or 4th seed depends on other teams and who falls into those 5th and 6th seeds also depends on other teams, so I don't want to focus on who our wild card opponent may be based on our seed. What I want to do, cautiously, is to look forward to the divisional round.

If we do win our wild card game and advance to the divisional round, if we're the 3rd seed, chances are we are going to go up against the Kansas City Chiefs, the 2nd seed. This is because the #1 seed will get the lower seeded team that advances from the wildcard round and that can't be the 3rd seed in any circumstance.

If we're the 4th seed, however, we have a fairly good chance at avoiding Kansas City in the divisional round, because the 3rd seed team, whether it be Buffalo or New England, will have to play KC if they advance. The only way we'd have to play Kansas City is if the 3rd seed is upset in the wild card round. That's definitely possible but I'd give it a less than 50% chance. And >50% is better odds than 0% (if we were the 3rd seed) to avoid Kansas City in the divisional round.

For that reason, am I crazy for thinking we should just rest our starters against Cleveland and accept the loss to ensure we get that #4 seed and increase the chances we avoid KC?

As for why I want to avoid KC, I think we have a better shot against Tennessee (who we beat last year, if you remember, with a worse team when they were less injured) than repeating last Sunday's performance against the Chiefs. It's not that I doubt Joe, but you want the easiest path in the playoffs to ensure you get the farthest. And avoiding KC until the AFCC game gives them 2 opportunities to be upset and giving us an easier opponent to beat in order to reach the Super Bowl.

Maybe I'm just thinking way too far ahead and/or am scared of KC taking revenge on us, but getting something like Indy -> Tennessee > KC/NE to get into the Superbowl seems much better than hitting KC in the 2nd round.

[Big Boss]

I'd rather not play the Chiefs again unless it's the AFC Championship game. Having said that, Derrick Henry terrifies me. He can singlehandedly wreck our day with Tannehill needing to do next to nothing.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Playing the Colts, Bills, or Raiders would be ideal.

That said, Burrow (and probably the rest of the starters) should sit Week 18. No reason to have him play a basically meaningless game against Garrett, Clowney, and a Browns team with nothing to lose.

[Frank Booth]

I want to face the raiders and chargers

everything else might have me sweating

[TecmoBengals]

You're crazy, dawg.

I'm not sure what path I want the Bengals to take. Maybe it would be advantageous to somehow match up against the Patriots because I feel like our defense could bring out the bad Mac Jones? Ultimately, the playoffs are a challenge no matter who we face. I'd like to avoid the Chiefs for a second game and think that maybe the Titans aren't going to be as strong if Henry isn't fully healed.

[leonardfan40]

Certainly a reasonable viewpoint. I really just want the easiest WC opponent possible so we can get that first playoff win in decades out of the way. Don’t know what seed the easiest WC opponent will have though. At that point it’s house money with any other playoff wins.

I’d definitely rather have Tenn in round 2 than KC though. Their running game is scary especially after we got run through earlier this year by Cleveland, but they have nothing in the passing game.

[KillerGoose]

(01-04-2022, 03:23 PM)Big Boss Wrote: I'd rather not play the Chiefs again unless it's the AFC Championship game.  Having said that, Derrick Henry terrifies me.  He can singlehandedly wreck our day with Tannehill needing to do next to nothing.

The Titans running game has only slightly dropped in production in most metrics since Henry has been injured. Henry wasn't running as well as he was last season, he just had eyepopping numbers because he had incredible volume. He was on pace to beat the single season attempts record, even without the 17th game. Their offense took a nosedive when Julio and AJB were injured. Whether it is Henry or Hilliard/Foreman back there, Tennessee has similar run game effectiveness this season. 

Now, if you want to talk about terrifying run games, you should be worried about the Colts. I would prefer to not play KC or the Colts. My preferred matchup is the Raiders, all day. 

[basballguy]

yes

[leonardfan40]

(01-04-2022, 03:31 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: I want to face the raiders and chargers

everything else might have me sweating

I don’t want the Chargers or Pats. Nobody else would have been overly concerned. Raiders or Steelers would be a dream (until they cheap shot Burrow to get Ben a fairy tale ending).

Chargers beat us up on both lines of scrimmage. Got after Burrow like crazy and Herbert had a bunch of time back there when he threw what felt like 10 deep balls that killed us. Maybe they aren’t as good with deep balls in Cincy in January though. If so, Herbert wasn’t good with the medium stuff so then I’d be ok with that matchup.

[Frank Booth]

(01-04-2022, 03:44 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: I don’t want the Chargers or Pats. Nobody else would have been overly concerned. Raiders or Steelers would be a dream (until they cheap shot Burrow to get Ben a fairy tale ending).

Chargers beat us up on both lines of scrimmage. Got after Burrow like crazy and Herbert had a bunch of time back there when he threw what felt like 10 deep balls that killed us. Maybe they aren’t as good with deep balls in Cincy in January though. If so, Herbert wasn’t good with the medium stuff so then I’d be ok with that matchup.

chargers dont scare me. Neither do the 49ers. Bengals were in those 2 wins 2 loss patterns they've had all year

Pitt only scares me due to the cheap shot factor

[spazz70]

I am not real keen on playing against NE no matter the seed.

[*ochocincos*]

I want the 3rd seed, as it's likely going to mean playing either the Chargers or Raiders.
I want no part of 2nd seed just in case the Steelers make the playoff, as they can only make it as the 7th seed and therefore play the 2nd seed. I don't trust the Steelers to play fair and clean in a playoff game in what is very likely Roethlisberger's last season. They'll pull out all the stops.
4th seed I could be ok with, but Bills have both a dominant offense and defense, and the Patriots have so much proven postseason success. I'd think Belichick and Daniels can do so well morphing their team to take advantage of their opponent that I'd be nervous to play them in the postseason.

[TecmoBengals]

(01-04-2022, 03:45 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: chargers dont scare me. Neither do the 49ers. Bengals were in those 2 wins 2 loss patterns they've had all year

Pitt only scares me due to the cheap shot factor

I'm good facing the 49'ers because it means we're in the Super Bowl.

[leonardfan40]

Ok so consensus in this thread is that the Raiders are the one team noboby here is afraid of. Give us whatever seed plays the Raiders….then watch us all have to regret it when they beat us lol

[CJD]

(01-04-2022, 03:52 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: Ok so consensus in this thread is that the Raiders are the one team noboby here is afraid of. Give us whatever seed plays the Raiders….then watch us all have to regret it when they beat us lol

Yea, I mean the truth is every wild card team is pretty threatening.

The Bills are a lot like us. Explosive but inconsistent offense with a star QB that, when he's on, can beat anybody. 

The Patriots have Belichick and even with a rookie QB, he's hard to brush them aside.

The Colts have a dominant run game and opportunistic defense that could overwhelm us.

The Chargers have an explosive but inconsistent offense as well.

The Raiders are the only ones that are still in the playoff conversation (other than the Steelers and Ravens, who still have an outside shot) that don't have some major threat on offense that could derail our season, so it's natural that we'd prefer to face them.

But even then, Derek Carr has shown he can be clutch when he needs to and they have a dominant pass rush which could just completely **** up our offense due to our weak Oline. So you never know.

[Interceptor]

(01-04-2022, 03:47 PM)spazz70 Wrote: I am not real keen on playing against NE no matter the seed.

I want us to be THAT team - the team no one wants to face in the playoffs.

[Whatever]

(01-04-2022, 03:19 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: The Chiefs play the Broncos on Saturday. For this exercise, let's assume they win that game. That eliminates the Bengals from the #1 seed. So now the only options are the 2 through 4 seeds.

The Titans play the Texans at the same time as we play the Browns. I think it's a safe assumption that Tennessee isn't upset with the #1 seed on the line by the Texans, so the #1 and #2 seed are most likely (let's call it 85 to 90% chance) set at Tennessee followed by Kansas City.

The most likely wild card teams (and AFC East winner) are the Chargers, Colts, Patriots and Bills. Unless both the Patriots and the Bills lose to the Dolphins and Jets, respectively, which is unlikely, there will be a 3rd 11 win team in the division winners.

If we beat the Browns, we are also an 11 game winner and likely 3rd seed, unless Buffalo loses and New England wins, in which case we're the 4th seed, with NE at 3rd.

Now, with all that groundwork laid, who we play in the wild card round is pretty hard to determine. Whether we sit in the 3rd or 4th seed depends on other teams and who falls into those 5th and 6th seeds also depends on other teams, so I don't want to focus on who our wild card opponent may be based on our seed. What I want to do, cautiously, is to look forward to the divisional round.

If we do win our wild card game and advance to the divisional round, if we're the 3rd seed, chances are we are going to go up against the Kansas City Chiefs, the 2nd seed. This is because the #1 seed will get the lower seeded team that advances from the wildcard round and that can't be the 3rd seed in any circumstance.

If we're the 4th seed, however, we have a fairly good chance at avoiding Kansas City in the divisional round, because the 3rd seed team, whether it be Buffalo or New England, will have to play KC if they advance. The only way we'd have to play Kansas City is if the 3rd seed is upset in the wild card round. That's definitely possible but I'd give it a less than 50% chance. And >50% is better odds than 0% (if we were the 3rd seed) to avoid Kansas City in the divisional round.

For that reason, am I crazy for thinking we should just rest our starters against Cleveland and accept the loss to ensure we get that #4 seed and increase the chances we avoid KC?

As for why I want to avoid KC, I think we have a better shot against Tennessee (who we beat last year, if you remember, with a worse team when they were less injured) than repeating last Sunday's performance against the Chiefs. It's not that I doubt Joe, but you want the easiest path in the playoffs to ensure you get the farthest. And avoiding KC until the AFCC game gives them 2 opportunities to be upset and giving us an easier opponent to beat in order to reach the Super Bowl.

Maybe I'm just thinking way too far ahead and/or am scared of KC taking revenge on us, but getting something like Indy -> Tennessee > KC/NE to get into the Superbowl seems much better than hitting KC in the 2nd round.

The 4th seed only has a 25% chance of playing the 1st seed in the second round if they advance.  They only way they do is if both 2 and 3 also win.

5th seed right now is NE, who would play the 4th seed.  I would avoid that matchup like the plague.

[CJD]

(01-04-2022, 04:32 PM)Whatever Wrote: The 4th seed only has a 25% chance of playing the 1st seed in the second round if they advance.  They only way they do is if both 2 and 3 also win.

5th seed right now is NE, who would play the 4th seed.  I would avoid that matchup like the plague.

Well, if 2 is upset, then I no longer care who we play in the divisional round since KC is now out. So if you cut that down, then it becomes "the only way they don't play KC is if 3 wins" which, like I said, is a pretty good chance. At least 50%, I'd say. Unless we're expecting the #3 to be upset.

As far as the 5th seed, fair point. I guess I am threatened by all the wild card teams, so it's hard to say who we would match up best against (other than the Raiders, of course). I kind of fear the Colts more than the Patriots because we have shown that we really struggle with an offense that is built through their rushing attack (see: Chubb and the Browns). If forced to pick between the two, it'd be a tough call, in my opinion.

[NATI BENGALS]

I want the highest seed. I want to go to multiple home playoff games and watch us win.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-04-2022, 04:18 PM)Interceptor Wrote: I want us to be THAT team - the team no one wants to face in the playoffs.

Then we need the best HC in NFL history to take us to 13 AFC Championships, 9 Super Bowls, and 6 Super Bowl parades all in an 18 year span.