Am I crazy for wanting the 4th seed?

[Interceptor]

It looks most likely we are playing the Colts. If some game results get weird, the next most likely is the Patriots.

[TecmoBengals]

(01-04-2022, 04:44 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Then we need the best HC in NFL history to take us to 13 AFC Championships, 9 Super Bowls, and 6 Super Bowl parades all in an 18 year span.

or Tom Brady Jr. aka Joe Burrow.

[Interceptor]

(01-04-2022, 04:44 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Then we need the best HC in NFL history to take us to 13 AFC Championships, 9 Super Bowls, and 6 Super Bowl parades all in an 18 year span.

Well, we are attempting Step #1. Let's see what happens....

[Bengalitis]

Going thru all the scenarios is like getting jr high flashbacks:

Q: A train covered half of the distance between stations A and B at the speed of 48 km/hr, but then it had to stop for 15 min. To make up for the delay, it increased its speed by 35 m/sec and it arrived to station B on time. Find the distance between the two stations and the speed of the train after the stop.

A: ______________

[Interceptor]

(01-04-2022, 04:46 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: or Tom Brady Jr. aka Joe Burrow.

I see we are quoting from the classical works of Steve Spagnulo.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(01-04-2022, 03:19 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: The Chiefs play the Broncos on Saturday. For this exercise, let's assume they win that game. That eliminates the Bengals from the #1 seed. So now the only options are the 2 through 4 seeds.

The Titans play the Texans at the same time as we play the Browns. I think it's a safe assumption that Tennessee isn't upset with the #1 seed on the line by the Texans, so the #1 and #2 seed are most likely (let's call it 85 to 90% chance) set at Tennessee followed by Kansas City.

The most likely wild card teams (and AFC East winner) are the Chargers, Colts, Patriots and Bills. Unless both the Patriots and the Bills lose to the Dolphins and Jets, respectively, which is unlikely, there will be a 3rd 11 win team in the division winners.

If we beat the Browns, we are also an 11 game winner and likely 3rd seed, unless Buffalo loses and New England wins, in which case we're the 4th seed, with NE at 3rd.

Now, with all that groundwork laid, who we play in the wild card round is pretty hard to determine. Whether we sit in the 3rd or 4th seed depends on other teams and who falls into those 5th and 6th seeds also depends on other teams, so I don't want to focus on who our wild card opponent may be based on our seed. What I want to do, cautiously, is to look forward to the divisional round.

If we do win our wild card game and advance to the divisional round, if we're the 3rd seed, chances are we are going to go up against the Kansas City Chiefs, the 2nd seed. This is because the #1 seed will get the lower seeded team that advances from the wildcard round and that can't be the 3rd seed in any circumstance.

If we're the 4th seed, however, we have a fairly good chance at avoiding Kansas City in the divisional round, because the 3rd seed team, whether it be Buffalo or New England, will have to play KC if they advance. The only way we'd have to play Kansas City is if the 3rd seed is upset in the wild card round. That's definitely possible but I'd give it a less than 50% chance. And >50% is better odds than 0% (if we were the 3rd seed) to avoid Kansas City in the divisional round.

For that reason, am I crazy for thinking we should just rest our starters against Cleveland and accept the loss to ensure we get that #4 seed and increase the chances we avoid KC?

As for why I want to avoid KC, I think we have a better shot against Tennessee (who we beat last year, if you remember, with a worse team when they were less injured) than repeating last Sunday's performance against the Chiefs. It's not that I doubt Joe, but you want the easiest path in the playoffs to ensure you get the farthest. And avoiding KC until the AFCC game gives them 2 opportunities to be upset and giving us an easier opponent to beat in order to reach the Super Bowl.

Maybe I'm just thinking way too far ahead and/or am scared of KC taking revenge on us, but getting something like Indy -> Tennessee > KC/NE to get into the Superbowl seems much better than hitting KC in the 2nd round.

Not crazy at all.  For me, though, my priority is keeping us healthy.  

1) Keep us healthy.  We have not won a PO game in 30 YEARS.  Maximizing our chances to win that 1st game is, by far, the most important thing.  Much more so than a super remote chance at moving up to #1, or the still unlikely chance we move up to #2. Or beating the Browns in a meaningless game  

2) If we rest guys, we'll have a rest advantage over whomever we play in the WC round. The Titans & KC will likely go all out for the bye. The Bills & Pats will go all out for the divisional title and first round home game.  Everyone else yas to win to get in.  

3) We could end up 4th even with a win if the Bills lose and Pats win.  

4) Like you, I think we have a better chance to beat the Titans than KC. Even with the Titans having an extra week off. 

[Savagehenry54]

(01-04-2022, 03:24 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Playing the Colts, Bills, or Raiders would be ideal.

That said, Burrow (and probably the rest of the starters) should sit Week 18. No reason to have him play a basically meaningless game against Garrett, Clowney, and a Browns team with nothing to lose.

THIS.  All day this!!  This exactly why its a moot point.  Theres no where near enough of a chance for improving our seed even with a win to risk the starters one week prior to what we know will be a home playoff game against a good team.

[grampahol]

(01-04-2022, 04:48 PM)Bengalitis Wrote: Going thru all the scenarios is like getting jr high flashbacks:

Q: A train covered half of the distance between stations A and B at the speed of 48 km/hr, but then it had to stop for 15 min. To make up for the delay, it increased its speed by 35 m/sec and it arrived to station B on time. Find the distance between the two stations and the speed of the train after the stop.

A: ______________

And the engineer had to take a crap behind the bushes along the way and ran up on some floozy he bought a few drinks for her then took her to a cheap motel for some fun. How long did it take to get to the bar then the motel and back to the train after it ran out of fuel...

[grampahol]

I have a feeling the starters all play and they try to thump the Browns.. They want revenge.. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-04-2022, 04:46 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: or Tom Brady Jr. aka Joe Burrow.

Tom Brady is the GOAT. Even without Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots went 11-5 with Matt Cassell and either 11-6 or 10-7 with a rookie Mac Jones. Also went 3-1 with Jimmy G and Brissett to start 2016. Heck, the DOWN "rebuilding" year was 7-9 with a completely washed up Cam Newton (watching Cam Newton in 2021 just makes the fact that they went 7-9 last year with him that much more impressive).

[Tony]

(01-04-2022, 03:23 PM)Big Boss Wrote: I'd rather not play the Chiefs again unless it's the AFC Championship game.  Having said that, Derrick Henry terrifies me.  He can singlehandedly wreck our day with Tannehill needing to do next to nothing.

We already handled Henry and the overrated Titans. Bring them on..

[Waite Hoyt]

Actually I look at it this way. All the AFC teams are concerned about playing us. No one can match our skill players. We are not a team others want to face.

[Tony]

(01-04-2022, 05:28 PM)grampahol Wrote: I have a feeling the starters all play and they try to thump the Browns.. They want revenge.. 

I hope not, they are gonna be pissed and try to injure Burrow..

[Joelist]

I don't think the seed is going to matter unless we somehow got #1. for one thing, it is VERY possible the Raiders beat and eliminate the Chargers. The funny one would be the Jags beating the Colts because it would turn the Stealer - Rat game into "win and you're in".

[Sled21]

(01-04-2022, 05:49 PM)Joelist Wrote: I don't think the seed is going to matter unless we somehow got #1. for one thing, it is VERY possible the Raiders beat and eliminate the Chargers. The funny one would be the Jags beating the Colts because it would turn the Stealer - Rat game into "win and you're in".

If the Stealers get in, it's all over for everyone. Goodell will mandate Fat Jen will go out a Super Bowl Champion.

[Shake n Blake]

I tinkered around with the playoff machine a lot, and the most likely scenarios have us as the 4 seed playing either New England, Indy or (less likely) Oakland, with a very slim shot of getting the Steelers.

I don't think we'll play starters next week, and even if we do, we've struggled against the Browns.

But yeah, I agree I'd rather avoid New England and especially KC if possible.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

Chargers Chiefs Rams Cowboys Cards with a healthy Dhop are only teams that scare me They are only teams that can beat us in a shootout everyone else including Packers, Bills and Buccs don't have the firepower to outscore us.

[Speedy Thomas]

(01-04-2022, 04:43 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: I want the highest seed. I want to go to multiple home playoff games and watch us win.

This.  And I want our JV squad to beat the snot out of Cleveland.

[Essex Johnson]

Not looking ahead, just want to finally win that first playoff games in decades.. one game at a time

[Spider]

Bills are scary good..