Am I crazy for wanting the 4th seed?

[GAWhoDey]

Higher seed, the better. Always. That's why they set it up the way they do.

Get the two seed and you are guaranteed two home games if you win the first. And, if the one seed got upset in the divisional round, you're playing at home all the way through.

We just beat the Chiefs, no need to be scared of any team in this league. If the Bengals play mistake-free football, they can beat anybody. Period.

[*michaelsean*]

KC to me is still the best team. Much rather play the Titans. San Diego isn’t all that if we don’t blow up the first quarter. Really haven’t seen Indy play. If Oou learned from the Jets then they can stop the Pats.

[M.W.]

(01-04-2022, 05:51 PM)Sled21 Wrote: If the Stealers get in, it's all over for everyone. Goodell will mandate Fat Jen will go out a Super Bowl Champion.

And they will allow Tomlin to walk on to the field in the fourth quarter and pull down his pants and give the Bengals D line a golden shower and then throw a flag against the Bengals for pushing him away.  

As many times as it takes for the stealers to win...

[EatonFan]

If we face the Steelers I am going to puke.

[Von Cichlid]

(01-04-2022, 04:48 PM)Bengalitis Wrote: Going thru all the scenarios is like getting jr high flashbacks:

Q: A train covered half of the distance between stations A and B at the speed of 48 km/hr, but then it had to stop for 15 min. To make up for the delay, it increased its speed by 35 m/sec and it arrived to station B on time. Find the distance between the two stations and the speed of the train after the stop.

A: ______________

The distance between the stations is 38.769 km, but the speed of the train after the stop would be 0 km/hr.  

[*Awful Llama*]

(01-04-2022, 10:29 PM)EatonFan Wrote: If we face the Steelers I am going to puke.

The brain says it's a different HC, QB, roster in general and we've handled them the last three games with no problem.

The gut says:

[WHO DEY C85]

I promise I'm not a naysayer, but I just don't see this team going into KC in the playoffs and winning. I like their chances better by going to Tennessee and hoping KC gets upset. Of course we all know that to get to where we ultimately want to go, there's no easy road.

[Shake n Blake]

(01-04-2022, 10:29 PM)EatonFan Wrote: If we face the Steelers I am going to puke.

...all the sudden all the calls go against us so Ben can ride off in the sunset...

Did you see his statline last night? 127 yards on 46 attempts? Got to be the most inefficient game I've seen on 40+ attempts.

[*rfaulk34*]

Listen up you bunch of limp wristed *******. Your head coach said no one gave this team anything. They went out and took it. You don't sit around, hoping this team or that team loses, or try to position yourself for what you think is a better matchup. You go out there and beat anyone that dares to step on the field against you. 

That means Cleveland this week then whoever next week. Don't give a shit. Can't wait! You go out there and play all comers because you're better than them. Chiefs, Titans, Bills, Colts, doesn't matter who. Cincinnati, Kansas City, Tennessee, doesn't matter where. 

You go out there and you take what you want because you're better. NOW LET'S GO!!

[*bfine32*]

(01-04-2022, 10:36 PM)Von Cichlid Wrote: The distance between the stations is 38.769 km, but the speed of the train after the stop would be 0 km/hr.  

Wouldn't it actually be 0 during the stop? 

[Joelist]

I don't think we can get the Stealers as a first round opponent. This is because IF they slip in they can't be higher than the 7 seed. And I am not at all sure there is even a scenario for us to be the 2 seed - I think we have a tiny chance of 1 but most likely we will just sit at 3.

[Essex Johnson]

(01-05-2022, 12:15 AM)Joelist Wrote: I don't think we can get the Stealers as a first round opponent. This is because IF they slip in they can't be higher than the 7 seed. And I am not at all sure there is even a scenario for us to be the 2 seed - I think we have a tiny chance of 1 but most likely we will just sit at 3.

I believe we are 2 with KC loss and Tenn win..

[*ochocincos*]

(01-04-2022, 10:29 PM)EatonFan Wrote: If we face the Steelers I am going to puke.

Only way of that happening is if Bengals jump up to 2nd seed, which is only going to happen if the Chiefs lose, Bengals win, and Bills winning their division.
The Best the Steelers can do is get the 7th seed, and they have to win but also the Colts lose to JAX.

[BengalYankee]

(01-04-2022, 03:31 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: I want to face the raiders and chargers

everything else might have me sweating

I want the Texans and the Jags, everything else will have me sweating ... 

[*Awful Llama*]

(01-05-2022, 01:29 PM)BengalYankee Wrote: I want the Texans and the Jags, everything else will have me sweating ... 

Too bad the Texans aren't in it.  We still owe them payback for '11 and '12 and for Watt's just being a complete dickweed.  

[BengalYankee]

(01-04-2022, 05:54 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I tinkered around with the playoff machine a lot, and the most likely scenarios have us as the 4 seed playing either New England, Indy or (less likely) Oakland, with a very slim shot of getting the Steelers.

I don't think we'll play starters next week, and even if we do, we've struggled against the Browns.

But yeah, I agree I'd rather avoid New England and especially KC if possible.

[BengalYankee]

(01-04-2022, 09:45 PM)michaelsean Wrote: KC to me is still the best team. Much rather play the Titans. San Diego isn’t all that if we don’t blow up the first quarter. Really haven’t seen Indy play. If Oou learned from the Jets then they can stop the Pats.

[Murdock2420]

(01-04-2022, 05:54 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I tinkered around with the playoff machine a lot, and the most likely scenarios have us as the 4 seed playing either New England, Indy or (less likely) Oakland, with a very slim shot of getting the Steelers.

I don't think we'll play starters next week, and even if we do, we've struggled against the Browns.

But yeah, I agree I'd rather avoid New England and especially KC if possible.

I'd agree, no interest in New England. The hoodie just isn't going to be fun to deal with. KC will want revenge on their home field and I don't even want to think about life if the Bengals lose to the Browns and Indy loses to the Jags... just.. nope.

Playing the Raiders, Colts or Chargers is a great round 1 at home. The cold crappy weather would be in the Bengals favor 

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Ya'll still in the "go for the #1 seed" train with Mixon Hendrickson, Bell, Hopkins and Spain all out?

I didn't think so.

[Daddy-O]

(01-04-2022, 03:19 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: The Chiefs play the Broncos on Saturday. For this exercise, let's assume they win that game. That eliminates the Bengals from the #1 seed. So now the only options are the 2 through 4 seeds.

The Titans play the Texans at the same time as we play the Browns. I think it's a safe assumption that Tennessee isn't upset with the #1 seed on the line by the Texans, so the #1 and #2 seed are most likely (let's call it 85 to 90% chance) set at Tennessee followed by Kansas City.

The most likely wild card teams (and AFC East winner) are the Chargers, Colts, Patriots and Bills. Unless both the Patriots and the Bills lose to the Dolphins and Jets, respectively, which is unlikely, there will be a 3rd 11 win team in the division winners.

If we beat the Browns, we are also an 11 game winner and likely 3rd seed, unless Buffalo loses and New England wins, in which case we're the 4th seed, with NE at 3rd.

Now, with all that groundwork laid, who we play in the wild card round is pretty hard to determine. Whether we sit in the 3rd or 4th seed depends on other teams and who falls into those 5th and 6th seeds also depends on other teams, so I don't want to focus on who our wild card opponent may be based on our seed. What I want to do, cautiously, is to look forward to the divisional round.

If we do win our wild card game and advance to the divisional round, if we're the 3rd seed, chances are we are going to go up against the Kansas City Chiefs, the 2nd seed. This is because the #1 seed will get the lower seeded team that advances from the wildcard round and that can't be the 3rd seed in any circumstance.

If we're the 4th seed, however, we have a fairly good chance at avoiding Kansas City in the divisional round, because the 3rd seed team, whether it be Buffalo or New England, will have to play KC if they advance. The only way we'd have to play Kansas City is if the 3rd seed is upset in the wild card round. That's definitely possible but I'd give it a less than 50% chance. And >50% is better odds than 0% (if we were the 3rd seed) to avoid Kansas City in the divisional round.

For that reason, am I crazy for thinking we should just rest our starters against Cleveland and accept the loss to ensure we get that #4 seed and increase the chances we avoid KC?

As for why I want to avoid KC, I think we have a better shot against Tennessee (who we beat last year, if you remember, with a worse team when they were less injured) than repeating last Sunday's performance against the Chiefs. It's not that I doubt Joe, but you want the easiest path in the playoffs to ensure you get the farthest. And avoiding KC until the AFCC game gives them 2 opportunities to be upset and giving us an easier opponent to beat in order to reach the Super Bowl.

Maybe I'm just thinking way too far ahead and/or am scared of KC taking revenge on us, but getting something like Indy -> Tennessee > KC/NE to get into the Superbowl seems much better than hitting KC in the 2nd round.

You're not crazy.  If we're lucky enough to get by the first round Tennessee is a much better match up for us, assuming of course we can stop the run and get out offense on the field.  If we can get a lead I like our chances.

And who knows what happens if we play the Cheifs again.  Odds would definitely be against us at KC in that stadium.  Maybe we don't get a bunch of calls next time but maybe, just maybe those potential turnovers we missed out on last weekend fall our way.