02-11-2022, 05:57 PM
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The Bengals Have a 32% Chance of Winning the Superbowl
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02-11-2022, 06:00 PM
02-11-2022, 06:00 PM
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02-11-2022, 06:00 PM
(02-11-2022, 05:49 PM)Science Friction Wrote: BINGO!!! Computers model can't measure what's deep inside of a man. When what is deep down inside a man effects his production on a football field then it can be measured. And if it doesn't effect what happens on a football field then it is meaningless for our discussion.
02-11-2022, 06:01 PM
There's a 0% chance that this has an effect on the Bengals winning or losing Sunday.
02-11-2022, 06:01 PM
(02-11-2022, 05:53 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: Do you have a 0.000000000001% chance to beat Usain Bolt, or a flat 0% chance? Is it even logical to discuss this matter in terms of probabilities in the first place? Is it falsifiable if we do? Bolt could trip and fall. So it would not be 0%. But I get the point you are making.
02-11-2022, 06:02 PM
To put my view simply:
Model X gives Team A a 95% chance to beat Team B. Team B wins. We have two clear options to describe this event: 1) Team B fell within its 5% interval, and the model was fair. 2) The model sucks. I think #2 is true at least as often as #1.
02-11-2022, 06:07 PM
02-11-2022, 06:11 PM
Usain Bolt could trip and fall multiple times and still beat my baby back ribs lovin' ass.
02-11-2022, 06:12 PM
(02-11-2022, 02:01 PM)Science Friction Wrote: Or so says the statistical model of Nate Silver, Jay Boice, and Neil Payne of fivethirtyeight.com .
#WhoDey
#RuleTheJungle #TheyGottaPlayUs #WeAreYourSuperBowl
02-11-2022, 06:13 PM
Does anyone know what our win probability was when we were down 21-3 at Arrowhead? As crazy as it sounds, I think , going into halftime, our players still fully expected to win the game.
02-11-2022, 06:13 PM
(02-11-2022, 03:21 PM)Nately120 Wrote: These dumbasses probably gave us a 99% chance to beat the Jets. Right, it means nothing.
02-11-2022, 06:20 PM
(02-11-2022, 05:58 PM)Earendil Wrote: 87% of statistics are made up anyway. 60% of the time, statistics are wrong every time. "The measure of a man's intelligence can be seen in the length of his argument."
02-11-2022, 06:25 PM
It appears all the pressure is on the Rams to win.Especially Matthew Stafford.Look what the Rams gave up just to get Stafford.Who knows,maybe all this pressure will be to much for Stafford.Like to see the Bengals jump out to an early lead for a change,and put even more pressure on Stafford.Stafford tends to throw interceptions when he’s under pressure.
02-11-2022, 06:28 PM
“There are three types of lies -- lies, damn lies, and statistics.”
― Benjamin Disraeli "Facts are stubborn things but statistics are pliable." --- Mark Twain
02-11-2022, 06:29 PM
(02-11-2022, 06:20 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: 60% of the time, statistics are wrong every time. But on the flip side, they are correct half the time.
#WhoDey
#RuleTheJungle #TheyGottaPlayUs #WeAreYourSuperBowl
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02-11-2022, 06:30 PM
(02-11-2022, 06:25 PM)ezekiel23 Wrote: It appears all the pressure is on the Rams to win.Especially Matthew Stafford.Look what the Rams gave up just to get Stafford.Who knows,maybe all this pressure will be to much for Stafford.Like to see the Bengals jump out to an early lead for a change,and put even more pressure on Stafford.Stafford tends to throw interceptions when he’s under pressure. I agree with all of this. |
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