The Bengals Have a 32% Chance of Winning the Superbowl

[Science Friction]

(02-11-2022, 05:00 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: I mean that kinda happens when your the SB Champ...



**Crap sorry spoiler alert***

I saw some power rankings that already have us behind the Chiefs and Bills for the '22 season.

[Earendil]

87% of statistics are made up anyway.

[Science Friction]

(02-11-2022, 05:41 PM)BengalYankee Wrote: Did they use this system in the 2016 Presidential Election?

Yes. Hillary was about 71.4% ON ELECTION DAY !!!

[KillerGoose]

(02-11-2022, 05:58 PM)Earendil Wrote: 87% of statistics are made up anyway.

About 43% of this comment is BS. 

[fredtoast]

(02-11-2022, 05:49 PM)Science Friction Wrote: BINGO!!!  Computers model can't measure what's deep inside of a man.

When what is deep down inside a man effects his production on a football field then it can be measured.

And if it doesn't effect what happens on a football field then it is meaningless for our discussion.

[masonbengals fan]

Just give us a chance in the end.

That's been my motto.

[Bengalpool]

There's a 0% chance that this has an effect on the Bengals winning or losing Sunday.

[fredtoast]

(02-11-2022, 05:53 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: Do you have a 0.000000000001% chance to beat Usain Bolt, or a flat 0% chance? Is it even logical to discuss this matter in terms of probabilities in the first place? Is it falsifiable if we do?

Bolt could trip and fall.

So it would not be 0%.

But I get the point you are making.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

To put my view simply:

Model X gives Team A a 95% chance to beat Team B.

Team B wins.

We have two clear options to describe this event:

1) Team B fell within its 5% interval, and the model was fair.

2) The model sucks.

I think #2 is true at least as often as #1.

[Science Friction]

(02-11-2022, 06:00 PM)fredtoast Wrote: When what is deep down inside a man effects his production on a football field then it can be measured.

And if it doesn't effect what happens on a football field then it is meaningless for our discussion.

OKAY...

[Science Friction]

Usain Bolt could trip and fall multiple times and still beat my baby back ribs lovin' ass.

[Interceptor]

(02-11-2022, 02:01 PM)Science Friction Wrote: Or so says the statistical model of Nate Silver, Jay Boice, and Neil Payne of  fivethirtyeight.com  .

Their model uses something called an Elo rating ,  a measure based on head-to head results and quality of opponent. Here are the Elo's for their top eight NFL teams. (Ratings were last updated after the Rams-49'ers NFC title game)

KC                   1701
Buffalo             1669
LA Rams           1656
Green Bay        1645
Tampa Bay       1634
SF                   1615
Cincinnati         1606
Dallas              1600


So, Nate's model  says it's   68%  to  32%  in favor of the Rams  .

Pretty similar numbers to another projection they made on Nov, 8, 2016 :   Check it out.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[Science Friction]

Does anyone know what our win probability was when we were down 21-3 at Arrowhead?  As crazy as it sounds, I think , going into halftime, our players still fully expected to win the game.

[*bengalfan74*]

(02-11-2022, 03:21 PM)Nately120 Wrote: These dumbasses probably gave us a 99% chance to beat the Jets.

Right, it means nothing.

[*rfaulk34*]

(02-11-2022, 05:58 PM)Earendil Wrote: 87% of statistics are made up anyway.

60% of the time, statistics are wrong every time.

[ezekiel23]

It appears all the pressure is on the Rams to win.Especially Matthew Stafford.Look what the Rams gave up just to get Stafford.Who knows,maybe all this pressure will be to much for Stafford.Like to see the Bengals jump out to an early lead for a change,and put even more pressure on Stafford.Stafford tends to throw interceptions when he’s under pressure.

[Science Friction]

“There are three types of lies -- lies, damn lies, and statistics.”
― Benjamin Disraeli




"Facts are stubborn things but statistics are pliable." --- Mark Twain

[Interceptor]

(02-11-2022, 06:20 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: 60% of the time, statistics are wrong every time.

But on the flip side, they are correct half the time.

[Science Friction]

(02-11-2022, 06:25 PM)ezekiel23 Wrote: It appears all the pressure is on the Rams to win.Especially Matthew Stafford.Look what the Rams gave up just to get Stafford.Who knows,maybe all this pressure will be to much for Stafford.Like to see the Bengals jump out to an early lead for a change,and put even more pressure on Stafford.Stafford tends to throw interceptions when he’s under pressure.

I agree with all of this.

[*Nately120*]

(02-11-2022, 06:00 PM)Science Friction Wrote: Yes. Hillary was about 71.4% ON ELECTION DAY !!!

I heard the guy who invented the Swiffer is going to release information to have the 2016 election AND the 1988 super bowl overturned next week.