Is Jackson Carman "Your" Starting LG

[phil413]

In in this late, lots of good points.

He is our guy, they need a contingency plan and my guess is there are two things going on here. Before that though we have to get past the bitterness of the past. They've changed A LOT of how they build a roster, so don't just assume they have penned in converted tackle with a back issue at LG. It's a competition they'd hope their high asset wins, but you have to have a contingency if you're wanting to win.

So, IMO there is still one piece coming. First, if you truly believe in taking a BPA that isn't a top need is worth taking if the value is enough...you can't write off the draft. They visited Salyer who could be a 3rd, and he is versatile. They've been bad recently developing young OL, but that doesn't preclude a pick.

Secondly, a vet FA that will have to settle for being part of a competition or backup is the better option on paper. Half the posts are bringing in Spain due to familiarity, let the market humble him, he understands that Carmen could start of it's close and he gets to be a versatile backup. No reason to worry about his attitude or how Jackson feels about it, they both have to see it's about winning. Not just Spain, but any FA. I had Michael Schofield as a G/T in my mock offseason for instance. I don't think we have a clear read on D'Ante Smith. He may be the competition or he may be being groomed as a tackle. I like him a lot, but they are still one body short. Most ideal for the roster may be a versatile G/C to push Carman or worst case Trey Hill. We can all day about "they like ______" but we are trying to win a ring. Get one more average body in there and I'm happy. Bottom line is Carman is their guy in pencil with a name beside it, we just don't know who that player is yet.

[CloeHokie]

(04-08-2022, 07:29 PM)phil413 Wrote: In in this late, lots of good points.

He is our guy, they need a contingency plan and my guess is there are two things going on here.  Before that though we have to get past the bitterness of the past. They've changed A LOT of how they build a roster, so don't just assume they have penned in converted tackle with a back issue at LG.  It's a competition they'd hope their high asset wins, but you have to have a contingency if you're wanting to win.

So, IMO there is still one piece coming.  First, if you truly believe in taking a BPA that isn't a top need is worth taking if the value is enough...you can't write off the draft.  They visited Salyer who could be a 3rd, and he is versatile.  They've been bad recently developing young OL, but that doesn't preclude a pick.

Secondly, a vet FA that will have to settle for being part of a competition or backup is the better option on paper. Half the posts are bringing in Spain due to familiarity, let the market humble him, he understands that Carmen could start of it's close and he gets to be a versatile backup. No reason to worry about his attitude or how Jackson feels about it, they both have to see it's about winning. Not just Spain, but any FA.  I had Michael Schofield as a G/T in my mock offseason for instance.  I don't think we have a clear read on D'Ante Smith.  He may be the competition or he may be being groomed as a tackle.  I like him a lot, but they are still one body short.  Most ideal for the roster may be a versatile G/C to push Carman or worst case Trey Hill.  We can all day about "they like ______" but we are trying to win a ring.  Get one more average body in there and I'm happy.  Bottom line is Carman is their guy in pencil with a name beside it, we just don't know who that player is yet.

Great post and I mostly agree with you. To me it depends on who falls to 31 which is how I started my comments. If Green or Zion are there I think I take them. But that could be hard to do if a good CB falls. Just have to see. 

But you are right this is not the same old Bengals. If we want to keep winning we need to have the best options up front for Joe. (And Joe) Carman is absolutely penciled in right now for me. I also feel like they are going to sign someone else that may make things more clear. Maybe that is another CB in FA. Maybe it is a G to push Carman or take over if he does not improve. And that could certainly also impact our decision. I know we like a lot of our younger guys like Smith but they have also not been very good when given the opportunity. We definitely should sign someone or bring someone in the draft to challenge Carman. And that does not have to be at 31 either. Lots of guys in later rounds we could grab. But if Green or Zion is there I have a hard time not running to the podium. 

[Whatever]

(04-08-2022, 02:20 PM)ochocincos Wrote: 10.

Williams, Collins, Karras, Cappa, and Carman would all have guaranteed spots.
Spain would also have a spot if signed.
That would leave 4 depth spots to be fought for between Adeniji, Prince, Smith, Hill, and two draft picks.

And I said nothing about moving on from Carman so quickly. I just want insurance in case he doesn't perform well or has another injury. Because I'm not ready to give up on him yet, I don't want to invest a Rd 1 or Rd 2 pick for an OG. The players I mainly don't have faith in right now are Adeniji, Prince, and Hill. I think Adeniji was misplaced at RG though. He's better outside. Prince is straight bad. Never really cared for Hill even through the draft process. In my ideal scenario, new mid-round OT would bump Prince off the roster and a new Day 3 OC would possibly bump off Hill.

I really don't see the logic in drafting a couple of Day 3 OL to compete with other Day 3 OL that already have a year or two in the system.  I mean, if anyone thought all these Day 3 picks were close to being able to start when they came out, they wouldn't have been Day 3 picks.  

I'm not a big fan of Prince, but you can run your offense with him.  I'm not sure what the issue with Hill is.  He took a bunch of penalties as a rookie.  Lots of rookie OL do.  Neither guy really seems to be the type you should be desperate to bump off the roster. 

[Whatever]

(04-08-2022, 06:25 PM)CloeHokie Wrote: Easy Question for you all

When comparing to the rest of our Line Is Carman a liability or an asset on our starting unit RIGHT NOW? That is in caps cause I don't want to hear about what he could be.

Carman is an unknown at this point.  We've seen a small sample size of a guy recovering from injury who was not put in a good situation to succeed.  He was asked to move from LT to RG and switch both positions and sides at the same time.

However, any draft pick you add will be an unknown, too.  It's just as easy to speculate that a 2nd round pick from a historically good OL class with a year in the NFL will beat out a fringe 1st rounder from a weaker class as a rookie.  

Spending a 1st on a LG is unappealing because it's wasteful.  If the draft pick wins the job, we just blew a 2nd round pick on a guy who will be a backup his entire rookie contract.  If Carman wins, we just spent a 1st on a guy who will ride the pine his first three years, then might get a chance to play if Carman isn't resigned.  OL is especially bad in this situation because you don't rotate OL like you do at other positions.  

[wanga]

(04-08-2022, 07:05 PM)CloeHokie Wrote: Lmao. To judge a player now you must look at what he has done up to now. Not what he might do or what we hope he can become. 

Shit. Doesn’t bode well for any draftees does it. Considering by your measure they ‘haven’t done anything’ yet. 
Sick of the Bengals burning draft picks on these unproven talents like Burrow and Chase et al.


Solid premise m8 

[grampahol]

Here's a hint as to why they don't just cut every rookie in his second year after a rough start after losing the super bowl.. Reason number one.. Money trees are a myth.. Unless you plan on the team picking first over all every few years to replenish all the gazillionaire salaries coming up you're going to have to accept that some of these guys are just gonna stick around awhile.. Despite zero evidence to the contrary there really isn't an entire forest of money trees growing anywhere near Paul Brown Stadium.. And let's face it..Even if there were who ya gonna pay to pick the fruit from those trees? Illegal immigrants? 

[fredtoast]

(04-08-2022, 06:25 PM)CloeHokie Wrote: Easy Question for you all

When comparing to the rest of our Line Is Carman a liability or an asset on our starting unit RIGHT NOW? That is in caps cause I don't want to hear about what he could be.

None of us know how good he is right now.

I don't understand why you refuse to even try to understand this.  Many 2nd round picks get much better after their rookie season.  So RIGHT NOW he could be a solid starter.

You can't just ignore all the years of history of draft picks and pretend that Carman will not improve in his second season.  

Look around the NFL and see how many teams give up on a player after his rookie season.  It just does not happen.  The reason is that NFL teams know that they can't judge a second tound pick based on his rookie season.

The last twenty drafts have produced 17 second round picks that registered a double digit sack season, but zero who did it there rookie season.  Also 31 players who have registered a 1000 receiving yard season, but only 3 that did it as a rookie.  21 players who had a 1000 yard rushing season but only 6 that did it as a rookie.  Overall 496 second round picks have had a season where they started at least 9 games, but less than half of them (200) did it their rookie season.

I could fill a whole page with players going into their second season that you claimed were no good who actually had very good seasons.  You think you know how well Carman will play this year based on last year, but based on the long history of the NFL draft you really don't.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-09-2022, 02:00 AM)Whatever Wrote: I really don't see the logic in drafting a couple of Day 3 OL to compete with other Day 3 OL that already have a year or two in the system.  I mean, if anyone thought all these Day 3 picks were close to being able to start when they came out, they wouldn't have been Day 3 picks.  

I'm not a big fan of Prince, but you can run your offense with him.  I'm not sure what the issue with Hill is.  He took a bunch of penalties as a rookie.  Lots of rookie OL do.  Neither guy really seems to be the type you should be desperate to bump off the roster. 

Prince is an ok run blocker but a terrible pass blocker.
I just don't think he'll ever develop into even a decent pass blocker.
Prince and Adeniji were by far the worst starters in the playoffs last year.
So I'm fine with moving on from both, especially Prince since he doesn't have much position versatility.

I don't think Trey Hill is athletic enough to run wide zone successfully, so I would prefer someone who's more athletic and mobile.
If Bengals end up running more inside zone or gap, Hill might be better.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-06-2022, 09:12 PM)jason Wrote: That's a pretty long limb considering Spain isn't even on the team... As of now anyway. But yeah; I'm of that weird idea that you use a 2nd round pick on a guy that you see as a starter movin' forward. I think LG is there for Carman to take. I think they want him to be that guy.

I'm of the weird idea that you adjust expectations based on performance.

Carman fit right in on a terrible line last year and in no way shape or form should be gifted a starting role next year.

I'd sign Spain to compete (Spain was solid last year, we have some revisionist history going on), OR draft a guy to compete...OR draft a Center and bump Karras over to LG with Carman becoming a high end bench guy with some upside.

[Frank Booth]

(04-09-2022, 01:13 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I'm of the weird idea that you adjust expectations based on performance.

Carman fit right in on a terrible line last year and in no way shape or form should be gifted a starting role next year.

I'd sign Spain to compete (Spain was solid last year, we have some revisionist history going on), OR draft a guy to compete...OR draft a Center and bump Karras over to LG with Carman becoming a high end bench guy with some upside.

Hell, Carman could beat Karras out for the LG spot if they draft Linderbaum

[Shake n Blake]

(04-09-2022, 01:41 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Hell, Carman could beat Karras out for the LG spot if they draft Linderbaum

Barring a huge leap on Carman's part, I highly doubt it.

We paid Karras to start, and he's a very solid player. He'll very likely be starting somewhere on the line.

[Whatever]

(04-09-2022, 12:18 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Prince is an ok run blocker but a terrible pass blocker.
I just don't think he'll ever develop into even a decent pass blocker.
Prince and Adeniji were by far the worst starters in the playoffs last year.
So I'm fine with moving on from both, especially Prince since he doesn't have much position versatility.

I don't think Trey Hill is athletic enough to run wide zone successfully, so I would prefer someone who's more athletic and mobile.
If Bengals end up running more inside zone or gap, Hill might be better.

Now that RG is solidified with Kappa, you can reliably give Prince help in pass pro with a TE and be ok if he needs to play, though.  I don't see replacing him as a big priority.  He will likely be fighting Smith to be the first off the bench at RT, anyways.

I don't know why the Bengals would waste a pick on Hill just so they can spend another draft pick the following year trying to bump him off the roster.  He has competition from Gaillard, anyways.  

I'm ok bringing Spain back to compete, but there are much bigger depth needs than OL, especially when you take expiring contracts in the secondary into account.

[CloeHokie]

(04-09-2022, 10:50 AM)fredtoast Wrote: None of us know how good he is right now.

I don't understand why you refuse to even try to understand this.  Many 2nd round picks get much better after their rookie season.  So RIGHT NOW he could be a solid starter.

You can't just ignore all the years of history of draft picks and pretend that Carman will not improve in his second season.  

Look around the NFL and see how many teams give up on a player after his rookie season.  It just does not happen.  The reason is that NFL teams know that they can't judge a second tound pick based on his rookie season.

The last twenty drafts have produced 17 second round picks that registered a double digit sack season, but zero who did it there rookie season.  Also 31 players who have registered a 1000 receiving yard season, but only 3 that did it as a rookie.  21 players who had a 1000 yard rushing season but only 6 that did it as a rookie.  Overall 496 second round picks have had a season where they started at least 9 games, but less than half of them (200) did it their rookie season.

I could fill a whole page with players going into their second season that you claimed were no good who actually had very good seasons.  You think you know how well Carman will play this year based on last year, but based on the long history of the NFL draft you really don't.

I do understand that Fred. Do you understand that he could also not get better? How many 2nd round picks never got better? Right now he grades out at a 54. He is a liability on our line. Could he improve? Sure. Is that a guarantee or even a better than 50/50 chance of that? No. There is a hope based on the few that have done it before while I look at the many that have not. 

There is no reason not to bring in competition for this guy plain and simple.

If we draft a OG in round 3 and he does way better in camp would you still want to start Carman over him just because?

  

[Frank Booth]

(04-09-2022, 03:10 PM)CloeHokie Wrote: There is no reason not to bring in competition for this guy plain and simple.

If we draft a OG in round 3 and he does way better in camp would you still want to start Carman over him just because?

  

Legit competition. Not D’ante Smith

[Whatever]

(04-09-2022, 03:10 PM)CloeHokie Wrote: I do understand that Fred. Do you understand that he could also not get better? How many 2nd round picks never got better? Right now he grades out at a 54. He is a liability on our line. Could he improve? Sure. Is that a guarantee or even a better than 50/50 chance of that? No. There is a hope based on the few that have done it before while I look at the many that have not. 

There is no reason not to bring in competition for this guy plain and simple.

If we draft a OG in round 3 and he does way better in camp would you still want to start Carman over him just because?

  

Where are you arriving at this conclusion that there isn't even a 50/50 shot a 2nd round pick improvesin their 2nd year?  I went from pick 33-44 in the '20 draft and there are only a couple of players that didn't statistically improve from their rookie season to '21.  If anyone cares to put in the work on that statement, they would completely blow it out of the water.  

[SunsetBengal]

(04-09-2022, 10:50 AM)fredtoast Wrote: None of us know how good he is right now.

Why blather any further?

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-09-2022, 01:13 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I'm of the weird idea that you adjust expectations based on performance.

Carman fit right in on a terrible line last year and in no way shape or form should be gifted a starting role next year.

I'd sign Spain to compete (Spain was solid last year, we have some revisionist history going on), OR draft a guy to compete...OR draft a Center and bump Karras over to LG with Carman becoming a high end bench guy with some upside.

If memory serves Spain graded out (pff) in several games as our best Olineman, 60' 70's. And some peeps want to act like he is just above hot garbage. 

I still can't figure out why they haven't brought him back ? Considering our other ummmm backups.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-09-2022, 08:43 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: If memory serves Spain graded out (pff) in several games as our best Olineman, 60' 70's. And some peeps want to act like he is just above hot garbage. 

I still can't figure out why they haven't brought him back ? Considering our other ummmm backups.

Maybe he's got some injury that needs cleaned up? Or maybe he's wanting a deal that isn't coming? Idk, but I'd think they'd bring him back for competition or something at least. Hard telling what's going on there.

His PFF grades were the best on the line for a good stretch, iirc. If he's now the "weak link" we'd be doing pretty good.

[NUGDUKWE]

(04-09-2022, 10:50 AM)fredtoast Wrote: None of us know how good he is right now.

I don't understand why you refuse to even try to understand this.  Many 2nd round picks get much better after their rookie season.  So RIGHT NOW he could be a solid starter.

You can't just ignore all the years of history of draft picks and pretend that Carman will not improve in his second season.  

Look around the NFL and see how many teams give up on a player after his rookie season.  It just does not happen.  The reason is that NFL teams know that they can't judge a second tound pick based on his rookie season.

The last twenty drafts have produced 17 second round picks that registered a double digit sack season, but zero who did it there rookie season.  Also 31 players who have registered a 1000 receiving yard season, but only 3 that did it as a rookie.  21 players who had a 1000 yard rushing season but only 6 that did it as a rookie.  Overall 496 second round picks have had a season where they started at least 9 games, but less than half of them (200) did it their rookie season.

I could fill a whole page with players going into their second season that you claimed were no good who actually had very good seasons.  You think you know how well Carman will play this year based on last year, but based on the long history of the NFL draft you really don't.

That's true but it does also feel like a bit of the logic that has gotten us to this point. Keep waiting for players to step up and it doesn't happen. The more I think about the draft I hope we go with Oline in 1 if the right guy is there but if he's not no need to reach. If we do draft say a Green in the first Rd we are not giving up on Carman and if history of the last few years says anything he will probably be asked to start at some point this season. We need to add more depth and if some of that comes in the form of a plug not play starter in the 1st of a BPA situation then all the better.  

[bengalsboy]

(04-06-2022, 09:09 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: I would draft Linderbaum if he is there

let Carman compete with Karras for LG

I agree.Take Linderbaum.Put him at center.Put Karras at guard.