Executives on the draft from The Athletic

[Soonerpeace]

Baltimore
One exec joked that if the Ravens selected a punter in the first round, analysts would probably applaud Baltimore for smartly zigging when the rest of the league was zagging. Without question, the Ravens’ long-term success has earned them the benefit of the doubt. But there is growing doubt from some who have long held the Ravens in high regard.

“The No. 1 reason teams miss early in the draft is when they go for the outlier,” an evaluator said. “They try to roll 11 in Vegas instead of seven. That is Baltimore in this draft.”

There’s some fear the Ravens lowered their odds for success by using early picks for outlier players at less premium positions: 6-foot-4 safety Kyle Hamilton at 14, undersized center Tyler Linderbaum at 25, injured outside linebacker David Ojabo in the second round and, yes, a punter in the fourth, before anyone else drafted one.

“A lot depends on how you view Linderbaum, because it is beauty in the eye of the beholder with him,” an evaluator said. “There is not a great precedent of guys his size being great players in the league. He is very similar size-wise to Garrett Bradbury, who just got his fifth-year option declined. Kyle Hamilton checked every box except for the athletic component.”

If there were large numbers of 6-4 college safeties failing in the NFL year after year, we would know with greater certainty height was a limiting factor. But few safeties that tall exist at any level. Does that mean the hit rate is far lower for them?

“I’m more bullish on Baltimore, but I can see the skepticism,” an exec said. “While I like a lot of the players they picked, the positions they focused on were kind of weird: strong safety, center, nose tackle, punter, two tight ends. Kyle Hamilton fell and probably for a reason. He is a weird shape, tall and slow. Linderbaum was highly rated, but he’s a center. Ojabo, they got a quote-unquote value pick there, but he might not play. Travis Jones, he is a guy that the analytics loved. His measurables were very good. But his tape was not.”

Trading Hollywood Brown, drafting zero receivers and loading up on tight ends could signal Baltimore doubling down on its run-heavy offense rather than trying to unlock a conventional passing game by surrounding Lamar Jackson with upgraded traditional receiving weaponry.

“They just stick so heavily to their board that if someone is higher than a wide receiver, they are definitely going to take that other person, but they might be a little slow in adjusting to positional importance,” an exec said.

Cincinnati The Bengals picked the right year to be terrible (2020) and the right year to suddenly become a Super Bowl team (2021). That allowed them to pick in the top five when Ja’Marr Chase was available in the draft one year ago and at the other end of the round in this draft, where teams tended to see greater value.

“Even if (veteran safety) Jessie Bates signs the (franchise) tender, Daxton Hill is a good add,” an exec said. “You also notice they made two targeted trade-ups, for the corner (Cam Taylor-Britt) in the second round and the other safety (fifth-rounder Tycen Anderson). I see them going from being maybe the least aggressive team in acquiring players to maybe a little bit middle of the pack, targeting their guys and going and doing it.”

Execs who questioned the quality of the offensive linemen Cincinnati added in free agency noted that the Bengals waited until the fourth round before addressing the position with North Dakota State’s Cordell Volson, the last of four tackles taken in a 26-pick span.

“I like their first pick (Hill), and it makes sense they would target him given their defensive coordinator’s history coaching the secondary,” an exec said. “He could play safety, he could play corner, he could play them all and could be a good nickel for them. He is pretty talented. Taylor-Britt can really run and he is tough, he is physical, but he’s a bit of a tweener, and I’m not sure how that goes ultimately.”

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Quote:but he’s a center.

Never understood the huge discount of having a good center. He's the only guy who touches the ball more than the QB (because sometimes the QB doesn't take the snap, but the C always snaps it). Pressure up the middle is devastating because then there's no pocket to step up into, and being able to run up the middle is demoralizing to a defense because you're consistently converting those short yardage downs on the ground and just dragging out drives and tiring the defense out.

Packers had the 7th rushing YPC offense in 2020, lose Corey Linsley, and go to 20th rushing YPC in 2021.
Chargers add Corey Linsley and go from 30th rushing YPC in 2020 to 17th rushing YPC in 2021.

2017 with Travis Frederick the Cowboys were 3rd in rushing YPC.
2018 without Frederick they were 14th in rushing YPC.
2019 with Frederick they were 5th in rushing YPC.
2020 without Frederick they were 23rd in rushing YPC.

The Falcons added Alex Mack in 2016 and went to 5th in rushing YPC (and the SB, and an MVP for Matt Ryan) up from 25th rushing YPC in 2015.

Just don't get why some people discount the Center position. It's probably a big part of why the Bengals almost never have good rushing offenses. (Only 2 top-10 rushing YPC seasons out of the last 20 years, most of the time very low.)

[Gdale_Bengal]

Baltimore has like 2 guys to throw to. There will be a lot of drives that are all run plays. If abatement can’t stay healthy there won’t be a play action passing game for them.

They’re a good team but honestly I don’t know how they can force teams to honor there receivers and zero blitz Jackson all the time.

[*pally*]

(05-08-2022, 09:26 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Never understood the huge discount of having a good center. He's the only guy who touches the ball more than the QB (because sometimes the QB doesn't take the snap, but the C always snaps it). Pressure up the middle is devastating because then there's no pocket to step up into, and being able to run up the middle is demoralizing to a defense because you're consistently converting those short yardage downs on the ground and just dragging out drives and tiring the defense out.

Packers had the 7th rushing YPC offense in 2020, lose Corey Linsley, and go to 20th rushing YPC in 2021.
Chargers add Corey Linsley and go from 30th rushing YPC in 2020 to 17th rushing YPC in 2021.

2017 with Travis Frederick the Cowboys were 3rd in rushing YPC.
2018 without Frederick they were 14th in rushing YPC.
2019 with Frederick they were 5th in rushing YPC.
2020 without Frederick they were 23rd in rushing YPC.

The Falcons added Alex Mack in 2016 and went to 5th in rushing YPC (and the SB, and an MVP for Matt Ryan) up from 25th rushing YPC in 2015.

Just don't get why some people discount the Center position. It's probably a big part of why the Bengals almost never have good rushing offenses. (Only 2 top-10 rushing YPC seasons out of the last 20 years, most of the time very low.)

Though the Chargers also added All-Pro Rashawn Slater at left tackle and Matt Feiler at left guard in 2021. While I don't disagree that the NFL as a whole undervalues the center position considering they are often among the longest-tenured starters on a team's OL, I can't give 100% of the Chargers' improved rushing to All-Pro Corey Linsley.  Signing or drafting a top-notch center makes sense as a long-term investment. Linderbaum was the best-ranked center in the draft and he wouldn't be there later in the 2nd round

Drafting a punter in the 4th round, worked for the Ravens.  They had 6 out of 11 draft picks in that round.  They have a 39-year-old punter who struggled at times last year.  They knew there were teams, including the Bengals, looking to draft this guy, who to the surprise of fans who fell in love with Punting God Azaria, was actually the NFL evaluator's #1 punter.  They had the picks that allowed them to indulge in what many consider a vanity pick.  Even still there was the same opportunity to pick up a WR in addition to the punter. They will end up with someone like Antonio Brown or Jarvis Landry. 

 

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-08-2022, 10:20 PM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: Baltimore has like 2 guys to throw to. There will be a lot of drives that are all run plays. If abatement can’t stay healthy there won’t be a play action passing game for them.

They’re a good team but honestly I don’t know how they can force teams to honor there receivers and zero blitz Jackson all the time.

I'm sure not upset about it at all, but I really wonder what the hell they are doing when they are still in limbo with respect to Lamar Jackson's contract extension.  As every Raven fan likes to point out, he is younger than Joe Burrow, and has great athleticism, but not helping him from a deep threat standpoint was mystifying.  

You can say that isn't their offense, but allowing safeties to sit in the box with no vertical threat makes it that much easier to defend them.  Not sure what veteran WRs out there are speed merchants, but they are certainly not in a better position offensively just because they are getting some running backs back from injury.  

It's so odd.  Cleveland is a complete mystery with what is going on at the QB position.  The steelers sent the pig to the slaughterhouse, and have a solid backup in Trubisky (who is going to likely be their starter) and a guy they wish to develop that they drafted in the first round.  FWIW, I am so glad they didn't draft Ritter.  Love that kid.  Would hate to have to hate him.  Then, the Ravens.   A team that got destroyed by Burrow and the boys when their defense was pretty healthy.  I guess we do have to fear the ominous "red dot" as portrayed by Fart Scott.  

Bengals went 4-2 in the AFC North with both losses coming against Cleveland.  Of course, the second loss was against our backups, but still. 

They could go 5-1 this year, or even 6-0 if the Browns continue to implode.  Pretty good chance they could open the season against the Browns, in Cleveland.  

[*bengalfan74*]

(05-08-2022, 09:26 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Never understood the huge discount of having a good center. He's the only guy who touches the ball more than the QB (because sometimes the QB doesn't take the snap, but the C always snaps it). Pressure up the middle is devastating because then there's no pocket to step up into, and being able to run up the middle is demoralizing to a defense because you're consistently converting those short yardage downs on the ground and just dragging out drives and tiring the defense out.

Packers had the 7th rushing YPC offense in 2020, lose Corey Linsley, and go to 20th rushing YPC in 2021.
Chargers add Corey Linsley and go from 30th rushing YPC in 2020 to 17th rushing YPC in 2021.

2017 with Travis Frederick the Cowboys were 3rd in rushing YPC.
2018 without Frederick they were 14th in rushing YPC.
2019 with Frederick they were 5th in rushing YPC.
2020 without Frederick they were 23rd in rushing YPC.

The Falcons added Alex Mack in 2016 and went to 5th in rushing YPC (and the SB, and an MVP for Matt Ryan) up from 25th rushing YPC in 2015.

Just don't get why some people discount the Center position. It's probably a big part of why the Bengals almost never have good rushing offenses. (Only 2 top-10 rushing YPC seasons out of the last 20 years, most of the time very low.)

The Center position is critical in many ways. Everybody is always screaming LT but C is right there with it.

[*bengalfan74*]

(05-09-2022, 08:27 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I'm sure not upset about it at all, but I really wonder what the hell they are doing when they are still in limbo with respect to Lamar Jackson's contract extension.  As every Raven fan likes to point out, he is younger than Joe Burrow, and has great athleticism, but not helping him from a deep threat standpoint was mystifying.  

You can say that isn't their offense, but allowing safeties to sit in the box with no vertical threat makes it that much easier to defend them.  Not sure what veteran WRs out there are speed merchants, but they are certainly not in a better position offensively just because they are getting some running backs back from injury.  

It's so odd.  Cleveland is a complete mystery with what is going on at the QB position.  The steelers sent the pig to the slaughterhouse, and have a solid backup in Trubisky (who is going to likely be their starter) and a guy they wish to develop that they drafted in the first round.  FWIW, I am so glad they didn't draft Ritter.  Love that kid.  Would hate to have to hate him.  Then, the Ravens.   A team that got destroyed by Burrow and the boys when their defense was pretty healthy.  I guess we do have to fear the ominous "red dot" as portrayed by Fart Scott.  

Bengals went 4-2 in the AFC North with both losses coming against Cleveland.  Of course, the second loss was against our backups, but still. 

They could go 5-1 this year, or even 6-0 if the Browns continue to implode.  Pretty good chance they could open the season against the Browns, in Cleveland.  

Seems they're planning on a dink and dunk TE oriented O and having their RB/QB running a lot.

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-09-2022, 08:36 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Seems they're planning on a dink and dunk TE oriented O and having their RB/QB running a lot.

Maybe you could have a very conservative offense that is low-risk just try to get 20 points a game and play great defense and special teams, but their defense is no where near that.  

[Soonerpeace]

(05-09-2022, 08:55 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Maybe you could have a very conservative offense that is low-risk just try to get 20 points a game and play great defense and special teams, but their defense is no where near that.  

Lamar is just not that accurate. Teams have learned how to defend him better. Keep him in the pocket and make him connect with a receiver. He does better with Tight Ends.

[Rubekahn29]

They better be careful running Lamar the way they have. The injuries are starting to catch up to him. Plus, if he doesn’t get a contract soon, whose to say he will want to sacrifice his body the way he has.

[Gdale_Bengal]

(05-09-2022, 08:55 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Maybe you could have a very conservative offense that is low-risk just try to get 20 points a game and play great defense and special teams, but their defense is no where near that.  

If that offensive line is potent, that team can get to 30. They have a good defense and do have a top 10 corner in Humphrey. They are a play off caliber team and there coaching staff is pretty good. But there offense will stall a bit if Bateman goes down.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-08-2022, 10:20 PM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: Baltimore has like 2 guys to throw to. There will be a lot of drives that are all run plays. If abatement can’t stay healthy there won’t be a play action passing game for them.

They’re a good team but honestly I don’t know how they can force teams to honor there receivers and zero blitz Jackson all the time.

They managed to do it in 2020, and they didn't have a single player reach 60 catches or 800 yards, yet still had the 7th scoring offense, won 11 games, and won a playoff game.

If you zero blitz all the time, you're going to be giving up huge plays all the time too. Lamar Jackson can always tuck it and let his 4.34 speed handle the rest if he sees the slightest gap, or he'll just quickly dump it to Mark Andrews who is going to almost certainly beat his guy 1-on-1 with no help in the vacated middle.

Now... do I think that their offense is a threat to win a SB? Probably not, but it can win some games in the regular season. Not many defenses are set up to defend against that type of offense anymore.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-09-2022, 08:55 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Maybe you could have a very conservative offense that is low-risk just try to get 20 points a game and play great defense and special teams, but their defense is no where near that.  

The Ravens as a team threw for 2,919 yards in 2020 and they scored 29.3 points per game.

That's 2.2 points per game more than the 2021 Bengals with Chase/Higgins/Boyd/Mixon/Uzomah.

[WeezyBengal]

(05-09-2022, 08:27 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I'm sure not upset about it at all, but I really wonder what the hell they are doing when they are still in limbo with respect to Lamar Jackson's contract extension.  As every Raven fan likes to point out, he is younger than Joe Burrow, and has great athleticism, but not helping him from a deep threat standpoint was mystifying.  

You can say that isn't their offense, but allowing safeties to sit in the box with no vertical threat makes it that much easier to defend them.  Not sure what veteran WRs out there are speed merchants, but they are certainly not in a better position offensively just because they are getting some running backs back from injury.  

It's so odd.  Cleveland is a complete mystery with what is going on at the QB position.  The steelers sent the pig to the slaughterhouse, and have a solid backup in Trubisky (who is going to likely be their starter) and a guy they wish to develop that they drafted in the first round.  FWIW, I am so glad they didn't draft Ritter.  Love that kid.  Would hate to have to hate him.  Then, the Ravens.   A team that got destroyed by Burrow and the boys when their defense was pretty healthy.  I guess we do have to fear the ominous "red dot" as portrayed by Fart Scott.  

Bengals went 4-2 in the AFC North with both losses coming against Cleveland.  Of course, the second loss was against our backups, but still. 

They could go 5-1 this year, or even 6-0 if the Browns continue to implode.  Pretty good chance they could open the season against the Browns, in Cleveland.  

I love this argument like it somehow matters. Who cares who is younger at this point? They are both 25. It really doesn't matter what age they came into the league - currently they are the same age. 

You can argue Burrow has accomplished more so far in his career, too. Sure Lamar has the MVP, but Burrow has the AFC Championship and SB appearance. 

[WeezyBengal]

(05-09-2022, 09:16 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Lamar is just not that accurate. Teams have learned how to defend him better. Keep him in the pocket and make him connect with a receiver. He does better with Tight Ends.

He is career 65% completion percentage. That is more than enough accurate. I would love to see his completion percentage on pass more than 20 yards, though. 

Lamar gets in trouble when he isn't given the option to run. When teams take that away completely, that's when he gets into trouble. 

[WeezyBengal]

(05-09-2022, 10:41 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The Ravens as a team threw for 2,919 yards in 2020 and they scored 29.3 points per game.

That's 2.2 points per game more than the 2021 Bengals with Chase/Higgins/Boyd/Mixon/Uzomah.

And this right here is why I'm not 100% sold on ZT as an offensive play caller/game planner/play designer. Our offense actually underperformed last year IMO. 

[Soonerpeace]

(05-09-2022, 10:51 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: He is career 65% completion percentage. That is more than enough accurate. I would love to see his completion percentage on pass more than 20 yards, though. 

Lamar gets in trouble when he isn't given the option to run. When teams take that away completely, that's when he gets into trouble. 

No doubt and it seems Taylor as he’s mentioned numerous times the division comes first and I like the defensive draft to address Watson, Lamar,and Mahomes.

[fredtoast]

(05-09-2022, 10:53 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: And this right here is why I'm not 100% sold on ZT as an offensive play caller/game planner/play designer. Our offense actually underperformed last year IMO. 

You have to consider the O-line.

Skill positions were elite, but the line was terrible.  Still finished 7th in the league in scoring.

[WeezyBengal]

(05-09-2022, 11:05 AM)fredtoast Wrote: You have to consider the O-line.

Skill positions were elite, but the line was terrible.  Still finished 7th in the league in scoring.

This is a good point. 

[grampahol]

(05-09-2022, 10:53 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: And this right here is why I'm not 100% sold on ZT as an offensive play caller/game planner/play designer. Our offense actually underperformed last year IMO. 

As is often the case I could be wrong about this, but last year I seem to recall our offensive line kind of stank. Sinked, stanked or stunked? it's probably the tense part that gets me in trouble..