Executives on the draft from The Athletic

[WeezyBengal]

(05-09-2022, 11:10 AM)grampahol Wrote: As is often the case I could be wrong about this, but last year I seem to recall our offensive line kind of stank. Sinked, stanked or stunked? it's probably the tense part that gets me in trouble.. 

There were games where they did stink but then looked like world beaters in other games. The inconsistency is what bothers me. 

[Gdale_Bengal]

(05-09-2022, 10:34 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: They managed to do it in 2020, and they didn't have a single player reach 60 catches or 800 yards, yet still had the 7th scoring offense, won 11 games, and won a playoff game.

If you zero blitz all the time, you're going to be giving up huge plays all the time too. Lamar Jackson can always tuck it and let his 4.34 speed handle the rest if he sees the slightest gap, or he'll just quickly dump it to Mark Andrews who is going to almost certainly beat his guy 1-on-1 with no help in the vacated middle.

Now... do I think that their offense is a threat to win a SB? Probably not, but it can win some games in the regular season. Not many defenses are set up to defend against that type of offense anymore.

I mean, you can say they will burn you if you zero blitz a lot, but I don’t think you saw what Miami did to Lamar last year.

[Au165]

(05-09-2022, 10:34 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: They managed to do it in 2020, and they didn't have a single player reach 60 catches or 800 yards, yet still had the 7th scoring offense, won 11 games, and won a playoff game.

If you zero blitz all the time, you're going to be giving up huge plays all the time too. Lamar Jackson can always tuck it and let his 4.34 speed handle the rest if he sees the slightest gap, or he'll just quickly dump it to Mark Andrews who is going to almost certainly beat his guy 1-on-1 with no help in the vacated middle.

Now... do I think that their offense is a threat to win a SB? Probably not, but it can win some games in the regular season. Not many defenses are set up to defend against that type of offense anymore.

This is in fact what we, and many other teams, did to him last year on 3rd downs and why he struggled really badly on them. He saw more 0 blitzes than any other QB in the league last year on 3rd and long situations. I have referred to it as blitz and sticks, after we showed other teams how Lamar saw teams setting their defenders in off coverage at the sticks on 3rd and longs and sending 6 man pressures. Lamar when hurried was one of the worst passers in the league last season, when he can hold the ball 3+ seconds he is one of the best. Teams figured out they can hurry his mechanics by sending pressure and playing off because his ball placement is so bad with hurried mechanics it does not give his guys great chances to run after the catch.

[BoomerFan]

Quote:“The No. 1 reason teams miss early in the draft is when they go for the outlier,” an evaluator said. “They try to roll 11 in Vegas instead of seven. That is Baltimore in this draft.”

I'm not sure I buy that. Or at least not all instances of going for the outlier are the same. Linderbaum is likely to be worth the pick and isn't some Darrius Heyward-Bey type of reach (or John Ross for that matter). I will agree that Ravens get reviewed better for their draft than they probably deserved but ultimately that is meaningless anyways.

Consider taking AJ Green in the first and Andy Dalton in the 2nd. That isn't a typical way to build a team. It wasn't a reach but it was an "outlier" as far usual drafting strategies go.

I suppose it is tough to define what an outlier pick is. For instance, I'd say Mahomes was both an outlier pick and a reach but he absolutely paid off, of course.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft/rankings/_/year/2017
https://www.pff.com/news/draft-final-pff-draft-board-top-250-prospects-of-2017
https://www.nfl.com/news/mike-mayock-s-2017-nfl-draft-top-100-prospect-rankings-0ap3000000802568

A better example might be Russell Wilson getting picked mid-way through the 3rd. Or going way back to the 2006 draft, everyone was debating whether Vince Young or Reggie Bush should be taken first overall. The Houston Texans took Mario Williams who produced the most of the 3. I'd call that an outlier pick and it worked.

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-09-2022, 10:41 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The Ravens as a team threw for 2,919 yards in 2020 and they scored 29.3 points per game.

That's 2.2 points per game more than the 2021 Bengals with Chase/Higgins/Boyd/Mixon/Uzomah.

True, but in 2020 they also had 3000 yards RUSHING with 1000 coming from the QB.  I think teams adjusted to them last year and they didn't have the answers.  They did have a ton of injuries last year and got three new guys on their offensive line (where have I seen that before?) but they looked SO BAD on defense last year, even before the injuries, that I just think they won't return to their 2020 form on offense OR defense.

Plus, if you believe any of the culture talk and also team chemistry, the Ravens look to be a team in turmoil, with their QBs contract status still up in the air and him tweeting out "WTF" on draft day when his top WR was traded.  Harbaugh has been a very consistent coach, but the Bengals got their DC fired last year (or so it seemed) and they are still lacking quite a bit on that side of the ball.  

Either way, it is going to be interesting.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-09-2022, 10:47 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I love this argument like it somehow matters. Who cares who is younger at this point? They are both 25. It really doesn't matter what age they came into the league - currently they are the same age. 

You can argue Burrow has accomplished more so far in his career, too. Sure Lamar has the MVP, but Burrow has the AFC Championship and SB appearance. 

Yeah, it wasn't like Joe was getting snaps all that time, either.  He was patiently waiting his turn that never came due to a broken hand (at OSU) and then he transferred to LSU and the rest is history.

I don't mean to sound disrespectful to Jackson, as he is a hell of an athlete.  Somehow, despite rushing for 1000 yards two years ago (and he was on pace to reach that again last year) he doesn't seem to take a lot of shots.  I do believe the few hits he has taken have started to take their toll, however, and a run-first QB just doesn't seem like a recipe for success in this league.  Sure, he is a nightmare on 3rd and 5 with his ability to rush and move the chains, but I think the way teams have adjusted have taken away their deep shots and forced him to grind it out on drives.  

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-10-2022, 07:44 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: but they looked SO BAD on defense last year, even before the injuries, that I just think they won't return to their 2020 form on offense OR defense.

I don't think there was ever a "before the injuries" for the Ravens. Lol

After Week 1, they were down an All-Pro CB, starting LB, a starting DT, a semi-starting CB, a backup CB, a backup DT, and a backup LB.

- - - - - - -

That said, I agree with you they won't return quite to 2020 form. I was just saying that an offense without relying on passing has proven it can win regular season games in the modern NFL, and doesn't have to be a bad 20 point per game offense.

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-10-2022, 08:18 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I don't think there was ever a "before the injuries" for the Ravens. Lol

After Week 1, they were down an All-Pro CB, starting LB, a starting DT, a semi-starting CB, a backup CB, a backup DT, and a backup LB.

- - - - - - -

That said, I agree with you they won't return quite to 2020 form. I was just saying that an offense without relying on passing has proven it can win regular season games in the modern NFL, and doesn't have to be a bad 20 point per game offense.

Who was the all-pro CB they lost week 1?  I honestly don't know?

And although the Ravens seem to get a pass nationally due to their injuries, the Bengals did lose their starting CB, DT, and RT but had been prepared with better depth behind them (except perhaps at RT).  They also lost Wilson for some time in the middle of the season.  

But I hear ya....they had a really bad start to the season health-wise.  

[Sled21]

(05-08-2022, 09:26 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Never understood the huge discount of having a good center. He's the only guy who touches the ball more than the QB (because sometimes the QB doesn't take the snap, but the C always snaps it). Pressure up the middle is devastating because then there's no pocket to step up into, and being able to run up the middle is demoralizing to a defense because you're consistently converting those short yardage downs on the ground and just dragging out drives and tiring the defense out.

Packers had the 7th rushing YPC offense in 2020, lose Corey Linsley, and go to 20th rushing YPC in 2021.
Chargers add Corey Linsley and go from 30th rushing YPC in 2020 to 17th rushing YPC in 2021.

2017 with Travis Frederick the Cowboys were 3rd in rushing YPC.
2018 without Frederick they were 14th in rushing YPC.
2019 with Frederick they were 5th in rushing YPC.
2020 without Frederick they were 23rd in rushing YPC.

The Falcons added Alex Mack in 2016 and went to 5th in rushing YPC (and the SB, and an MVP for Matt Ryan) up from 25th rushing YPC in 2015.

Just don't get why some people discount the Center position. It's probably a big part of why the Bengals almost never have good rushing offenses. (Only 2 top-10 rushing YPC seasons out of the last 20 years, most of the time very low.)

Not sure they are blasting the position as much as the undersized person they drafted to play it. 

[Sled21]

(05-08-2022, 10:20 PM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: Baltimore has like 2 guys to throw to. There will be a lot of drives that are all run plays. If abatement can’t stay healthy there won’t be a play action passing game for them.

They’re a good team but honestly I don’t know how they can force teams to honor there receivers and zero blitz Jackson all the time.

I love the fact they have basically no receivers. As long as we have Lou as DC and disciplined play like we get from Hubbard, they have shown they can shut down Lamar's running and force him to pass. They will have some success, as some teams won't contain him, but the Bengals have shown they can.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-11-2022, 08:12 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Who was the all-pro CB they lost week 1?  I honestly don't know?

And although the Ravens seem to get a pass nationally due to their injuries, the Bengals did lose their starting CB, DT, and RT but had been prepared with better depth behind them (except perhaps at RT).  They also lost Wilson for some time in the middle of the season.  

But I hear ya....they had a really bad start to the season health-wise.  

Marcus Peters, never took a snap in 2021. 2x 1st Team All-Pro, 1x 2nd Team All-Pro, 3x Pro Bowler.

(They actually lost another 1st Team All-Pro CB later in the season, too, in Marlon Humphrey, plus their All-Pro LT, and their MVP QB, and a lot more. That's why they seem to get a pass due to injuries.)

[fredtoast]

(05-11-2022, 08:42 AM)Sled21 Wrote: As long as we have Lou as DC and disciplined play like we get from Hubbard, they have shown they can shut down Lamar's running

His last 2 games against the Bengals he has 187 rushing yards on 23 carries.

[*psychdoctor*]

As a casual fan, it seems that the Baltimore Ravens are doubling down on Lamar Jackson style of football. They are stout at running back, drafting tight ends and have had success with this model. Yet it's deafening how the front office has not committed to Lamar Jackson in terms of a new contract.

If Lamar Jackson is the man then where is the contract? Where is the money? Jackson may be similar age to Joe Burrow in human years but he is roughly 35 of age in NFL years as a running quarterback. Meaning historically running quarterbacks just do not last.

The Baltimore Ravens defense is always been a strength, last year's team beat the snot out of Justin Herbert and the chargers.

I think the The blueprint on how to beat the Ravens' backups is etched but this year will determine if teams can be the Baltimore Ravens healthy and if that is the case I think they move on from, Lamar Jackson.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(05-11-2022, 10:24 AM)fredtoast Wrote: His last 2 games against the Bengals he has 187 rushing yards on 23 carries.

He has 185, but just nitpicking.

11 for 97 (2020)
12 for 88 (2021)

The rest of the team?

43 for 307 (2020)
12 for 27 (2021)

Lamar can run for 150 every game, if they become 1 dimensional and have him as the focus.

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-11-2022, 10:19 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Marcus Peters, never took a snap in 2021. 2x 1st Team All-Pro, 1x 2nd Team All-Pro, 3x Pro Bowler.

(They actually lost another 1st Team All-Pro CB later in the season, too, in Marlon Humphrey, plus their All-Pro LT, and their MVP QB, and a lot more. That's why they seem to get a pass due to injuries.)

Ahhh.  To be fair, Peters was a 64.4 on PFF in 2020 and had been trending downward.  But I get it.  They lost Humphrey in week 12, I believe.  

I know they have a lot more equity in the court of public opinion, but no one had trouble heaping shame on the Bengals in 2020 when they lost Burrow, Reader, Geno, Daniels, XSF, CJ, Waynes, and Hubbard.  

[Hammerstripes]

(05-09-2022, 10:53 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: And this right here is why I'm not 100% sold on ZT as an offensive play caller/game planner/play designer. Our offense actually underperformed last year IMO. 

There aren't too many "gurus" out there that can take a bottom 5 o-line and get great offensive results.  

I saved my judgment on Lou until he had some talent, I'm putting Zac to the same test this year.  He has talent across the board. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-11-2022, 04:27 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Ahhh.  To be fair, Peters was a 64.4 on PFF in 2020 and had been trending downward.  But I get it.  They lost Humphrey in week 12, I believe.  

I know they have a lot more equity in the court of public opinion, but no one had trouble heaping shame on the Bengals in 2020 when they lost Burrow, Reader, Geno, Daniels, XSF, CJ, Waynes, and Hubbard.  

Which is strange because according to PFR he allowed only a 78.0 QB Rating in his coverage and had 4 INT and 4 FF.

Because the Bengals in 2020 were coming off having the 1st overall pick and 2 wins. Then they had 4 wins and the 5th overall pick, and their 5th straight losing season. That deserves shaming.

Not to mention that even with all those injuries the Ravens still went 8-9 in 2021. Literally twice as many wins as the Bengals had in 2020, more wins than the Bengals had in 2019 and 2020 combined, and they hadn't sucked the year before. They went 11-5 and won a playoff game, so it doesn't look like you're making excuses for a bad season with injuries despite being a terrible team the year before too (sure it was our 5th straight losing season, but we had injuries this year!).

It's not the same situation, man. It's not some double standard, it's just very different situations.

[Soonerpeace]

(05-09-2022, 10:51 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: He is career 65% completion percentage. That is more than enough accurate. I would love to see his completion percentage on pass more than 20 yards, though. 

Lamar gets in trouble when he isn't given the option to run. When teams take that away completely, that's when he gets into trouble. 

What did you think of some of those play calls to beat KC twice late as well as Tenn? Those weren’t Joe changing the play. Judge Taylor with an OL this year. Taylor is old school football. He’s going to play the percentages

[*ochocincos*]

(05-08-2022, 08:23 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Baltimore
One exec joked that if the Ravens selected a punter in the first round, analysts would probably applaud Baltimore for smartly zigging when the rest of the league was zagging. Without question, the Ravens’ long-term success has earned them the benefit of the doubt. But there is growing doubt from some who have long held the Ravens in high regard.

“The No. 1 reason teams miss early in the draft is when they go for the outlier,” an evaluator said. “They try to roll 11 in Vegas instead of seven. That is Baltimore in this draft.”

There’s some fear the Ravens lowered their odds for success by using early picks for outlier players at less premium positions: 6-foot-4 safety Kyle Hamilton at 14, undersized center Tyler Linderbaum at 25, injured outside linebacker David Ojabo in the second round and, yes, a punter in the fourth, before anyone else drafted one.

“A lot depends on how you view Linderbaum, because it is beauty in the eye of the beholder with him,” an evaluator said. “There is not a great precedent of guys his size being great players in the league. He is very similar size-wise to Garrett Bradbury, who just got his fifth-year option declined. Kyle Hamilton checked every box except for the athletic component.”

If there were large numbers of 6-4 college safeties failing in the NFL year after year, we would know with greater certainty height was a limiting factor. But few safeties that tall exist at any level. Does that mean the hit rate is far lower for them?

“I’m more bullish on Baltimore, but I can see the skepticism,” an exec said. “While I like a lot of the players they picked, the positions they focused on were kind of weird: strong safety, center, nose tackle, punter, two tight ends. Kyle Hamilton fell and probably for a reason. He is a weird shape, tall and slow. Linderbaum was highly rated, but he’s a center. Ojabo, they got a quote-unquote value pick there, but he might not play. Travis Jones, he is a guy that the analytics loved. His measurables were very good. But his tape was not.”

Trading Hollywood Brown, drafting zero receivers and loading up on tight ends could signal Baltimore doubling down on its run-heavy offense rather than trying to unlock a conventional passing game by surrounding Lamar Jackson with upgraded traditional receiving weaponry.

“They just stick so heavily to their board that if someone is higher than a wide receiver, they are definitely going to take that other person, but they might be a little slow in adjusting to positional importance,” an exec said.

Cincinnati The Bengals picked the right year to be terrible (2020) and the right year to suddenly become a Super Bowl team (2021). That allowed them to pick in the top five when Ja’Marr Chase was available in the draft one year ago and at the other end of the round in this draft, where teams tended to see greater value.

“Even if (veteran safety) Jessie Bates signs the (franchise) tender, Daxton Hill is a good add,” an exec said. “You also notice they made two targeted trade-ups, for the corner (Cam Taylor-Britt) in the second round and the other safety (fifth-rounder Tycen Anderson). I see them going from being maybe the least aggressive team in acquiring players to maybe a little bit middle of the pack, targeting their guys and going and doing it.”

Execs who questioned the quality of the offensive linemen Cincinnati added in free agency noted that the Bengals waited until the fourth round before addressing the position with North Dakota State’s Cordell Volson, the last of four tackles taken in a 26-pick span.

“I like their first pick (Hill), and it makes sense they would target him given their defensive coordinator’s history coaching the secondary,” an exec said. “He could play safety, he could play corner, he could play them all and could be a good nickel for them. He is pretty talented. Taylor-Britt can really run and he is tough, he is physical, but he’s a bit of a tweener, and I’m not sure how that goes ultimately.”

Kyle Hamilton is bigger than usual, but here are some safeties who were very similarly-sized and had success:
- Bengals own George Iloka (6'4", 225 lb)
- SEA safety Kam Chancellor (6'3", 225 lb)

Both played 8 years, made a lot of tackles, and had a handful of INTs.
Neither played beyond 30 years old though.

I believe with BAL, they just added Marcus Williams to be the FS, so we could see Hamilton play more SS.
That could be better for him, as he doesn't have elite speed or agility.

Bengals I think got the best coverage safety in Hill.

[*ochocincos*]

(05-11-2022, 05:36 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Which is strange because according to PFR he allowed only a 78.0 QB Rating in his coverage and had 4 INT and 4 FF.

Because the Bengals in 2020 were coming off having the 1st overall pick and 2 wins. Then they had 4 wins and the 5th overall pick, and their 5th straight losing season. That deserves shaming.

Not to mention that even with all those injuries the Ravens still went 8-9 in 2021. Literally twice as many wins as the Bengals had in 2020, more wins than the Bengals had in 2019 and 2020 combined, and they hadn't sucked the year before. They went 11-5 and won a playoff game, so it doesn't look like you're making excuses for a bad season with injuries despite being a terrible team the year before too (sure it was our 5th straight losing season, but we had injuries this year!).

It's not the same situation, man. It's not some double standard, it's just very different situations.

It's not really that strange though, as PFF rates players on every snap, not just the ones they were involved in the play.
There could have been things that didn't go well on snaps where the throw went to another player that wasn't covered by Peters.

Also, a 64 PFF rating isn't bad. It's considered decent starter level nowadays.