Best WR in franchise history - Analysis

[Goalpost]

Well, I would put Chad 1st, but Chase could pass him eventually if he stays injury free.

Ike had an impact in the game we still see today. The NFL adopted a rule to which his name was attached.

"The Isaac Curtis rule" should not be confused with the "Mel Blount rule", which was a stricter revision of "The Isaac Curtis Rule". Because Isaac Curtis had world-class speed there were no defensive backs who could keep up with him; all of the teams would double and sometimes even triple cover him. In 1973 in his first year, the Bengals won the Central Division and faced the eventual Super Bowl Champions, the Miami Dolphins. Don Shula's defensive backs did not have the speed to cover Curtis and Shula decided that he would have them push, bump, and hold him down the field. After that game, NFL defenses, including the Steelers started doing the same thing to stop Curtis. Paul Brown wanted the rule changed telling the NFL Competition Committee, "What good is it for us to have performers, if they aren't allowed to perform."

"The Isaac Curtis Rule" states that a defender is allowed to block a receiver within five yards of the line of scrimmage. After the initial yards any contact will be considered holding, which is a five-yard penalty and an automatic first down.

"He changed the game," said former Bengals teammate and wide receiver Cris Collinsworth. "There's no question because no one could keep up with him. They put in the five-yard bump rules and all that crazy stuff that it all eventually became".[4]

[ATOTR]

Darnay Scott averaged 850 yards and 5.5 tds per season for 7 years in cincy.

[KillerGoose]

(06-20-2022, 03:03 PM)ATOTR Wrote: Darnay Scott averaged 850 yards and 5.5 tds per season for 7 years in cincy.

Using a per game average, I have Darnay at 10th. He was usually right around league average in every metric. Throughout the 90s, the average receiver statline was 54 catches, 750-ish yards, and 5 TDs. He was an okay receiver on bad teams. 

[ATOTR]

(06-20-2022, 03:16 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Using a per game average, I have Darnay at 10th. He was usually right around league average in every metric. Throughout the 90s, the average receiver statline was 54 catches, 750-ish yards, and 5 TDs. He was an okay receiver on bad teams. 

But you have Brandon LaFell listed at #10. 

Darnay Scott for his entire Career - had more Receptions, Yards and Tds than Lafell.   His AV is higher, and he played 7 full seasons in Cincy.  LAfell played 2 here. 

[KillerGoose]

(06-20-2022, 03:50 PM)ATOTR Wrote: But you have Brandon LaFell listed at #10. 

Darnay Scott for his entire Career - had more Receptions, Yards and Tds than Lafell.   His AV is higher, and he played 7 full seasons in Cincy.  LAfell played 2 here. 

Yeah, that's season level statistics, not per game. Here is an updated post.

[Murdock2420]

(06-19-2022, 03:33 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: And think that Chase was a lineman holding their block for a split-second longer to give Burrow enough time to throw him the game-winning touchdown.

Chase will destroy all of these records and no one will even dare to question who the GOAT is.

See this is why I hate when people try to compare skill positions across eras.

1 - The rules are so vastly different. It is so much easier to play WR in today's NFL. CBs have to keep their hands off you, no head hunting LBers trying to take you out. Everything in the modern NFL is built to increase scoring which increases viewers, which increases revenue. I understand it completely but to say any player in today's NFL is the goat because of numbers is misguided.

2 - QB, QB, QB!!!! Carl Pickens put up really good numbers with really bad teams, and really bad coaches and a coaching carousel. Chase and Higgins will statistcially be at the top of most things for Bengals WRs before it is all said and done (unless Higgins takes a big contract elsewhere). Is it really that Chase is just soooooo much better than Chad Johnson or Pickens or Green or Curtis? Or is it Chase and Higgins are catching balls from the guy who will go down as the best QB the team has ever had, with a good defense on the other side. Certainly a better situation then other WR's have had with the exception of a few years with Anderson in the early 80's and a few with Boomer in the late 80's.

A guy needs to be compared to his peers only in his own era. In that environment of the same rules, same coaches, same variables, the stats are viable and prove a trend.

When mutliple variables are changed (era, coaches, QBs) can't compare stats and expect for the results to be correct.

[BFritz21]

(06-20-2022, 10:29 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: See this is why I hate when people try to compare skill positions across eras.

1 - The rules are so vastly different. It is so much easier to play WR in today's NFL. CBs have to keep their hands off you, no head hunting LBers trying to take you out. Everything in the modern NFL is built to increase scoring which increases viewers, which increases revenue. I understand it completely but to say any player in today's NFL is the goat because of numbers is misguided.

2 - QB, QB, QB!!!! Carl Pickens put up really good numbers with really bad teams, and really bad coaches and a coaching carousel. Chase and Higgins will statistcially be at the top of most things for Bengals WRs before it is all said and done (unless Higgins takes a big contract elsewhere). Is it really that Chase is just soooooo much better than Chad Johnson or Pickens or Green or Curtis? Or is it Chase and Higgins are catching balls from the guy who will go down as the best QB the team has ever had, with a good defense on the other side. Certainly a better situation then other WR's have had with the exception of a few years with Anderson in the early 80's and a few with Boomer in the late 80's.

A guy needs to be compared to his peers only in his own era. In that environment of the same rules, same coaches, same variables, the stats are viable and prove a trend.

When mutliple variables are changed (era, coaches, QBs) can't compare stats and expect for the results to be correct.

I agree with everything you said about different QBs and the different rules, but I just mean the impact that Chase will have on this team and what he'll do to change the way defenses have to play us and how he'll help propel this team to victory will make him the GOAT of Bengals receivers.

On top of that, I also believe his skillset will prove him to be the GOAT. It's true that receivers don't fear going over the middle or running slants as much anymore, but in just pure route running, playmaking ability, and just overall football skills, Chase will prove to be better than anyone else in our history.

[KillerGoose]

(06-20-2022, 10:29 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: A guy needs to be compared to his peers only in his own era. In that environment of the same rules, same coaches, same variables, the stats are viable and prove a trend.

When mutliple variables are changed (era, coaches, QBs) can't compare stats and expect for the results to be correct.

Just a reminder that this is what this analysis is at least attempting to do. Each receivers ratings are generated by comparing them to their peers in that season. It is a way to figure out how good they were relative to their peers so we have a way of judging them all together. Having a 1k yard season in 1975 is much more impressive than it is today, for instance, so it would generate a higher rating than a receiver doing it today.

Of course, we aren’t controlling for QB quality which is a fair point. It still allows us to have a more accurate comparison than we normally would have, however. Most importantly, it generates discussion which is really the ultimate goal.

[*bfine32*]

Player A: Played from 1974-1982. He amassed 336 receptions, 5.462 yards, and 51 TDs

Player B: Played from 1973-1984. He amassed 416 catches, 7101 yards, and 53 TDs

Player A is a NFL Hall of Famer

Player B is the 8th best WR in Bengal history

[*jason*]

(06-20-2022, 10:55 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Player A: Played from 1974-1982. He amassed 336 receptions, 5.462 yards, and 51 TDs

Player B: Played from 1973-1984. He amassed 416 catches, 7101 yards, and 53 TDs

Player A is a NFL Hall of Famer

Player B is the 8th best WR in Bengal history

Who's Player A ???

[*bfine32*]

(06-20-2022, 11:05 PM)jason Wrote: Who's Player A ???

Lynn Swann

[Johnny Cupcakes]

(06-20-2022, 11:05 PM)jason Wrote: Who's Player A ???

Lynn Swann

The reason that he’s in the HOF is not just individual accolades, but the fact that he was part of a Super Bowl winning team in 4 of his 9 seasons, winning the SB MVP once.

He’s in the HOF due to team success.

[*bengalfan74*]

(06-20-2022, 11:11 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Lynn Swann

Lynn Swann's fame took off like a jet fighter after that catch he made in the playoffs were he's stumbling and stretching falling down. They played that thing on loop for like 15 years.

[*jason*]

(06-20-2022, 10:29 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: See this is why I hate when people try to compare skill positions across eras.

1 - The rules are so vastly different. It is so much easier to play WR in today's NFL. CBs have to keep their hands off you, no head hunting LBers trying to take you out. Everything in the modern NFL is built to increase scoring which increases viewers, which increases revenue. I understand it completely but to say any player in today's NFL is the goat because of numbers is misguided.

2 - QB, QB, QB!!!! Carl Pickens put up really good numbers with really bad teams, and really bad coaches and a coaching carousel. Chase and Higgins will statistcially be at the top of most things for Bengals WRs before it is all said and done (unless Higgins takes a big contract elsewhere). Is it really that Chase is just soooooo much better than Chad Johnson or Pickens or Green or Curtis? Or is it Chase and Higgins are catching balls from the guy who will go down as the best QB the team has ever had, with a good defense on the other side. Certainly a better situation then other WR's have had with the exception of a few years with Anderson in the early 80's and a few with Boomer in the late 80's.

A guy needs to be compared to his peers only in his own era. In that environment of the same rules, same coaches, same variables, the stats are viable and prove a trend.

When mutliple variables are changed (era, coaches, QBs) can't compare stats and expect for the results to be correct.

What other skill position player in any era had a rookie season that rivals that of Ja'Marr Chase when compared with his peers in his era then?

[Nicomo Cosca]

(06-20-2022, 11:24 PM)jason Wrote: What other skill position player in any era had a rookie season that rivals that of Ja'Marr Chase when compared with his peers in his era then?

Pretty much just Moss.

I guess you could make a case for Jefferson, but he didn’t put up the TD numbers that Chase and Moss did.

[CarolinaBengalFanGuy]

Oddly enough I've never liked Tyler Boyd as much as I loved Houshmandzadeh. I was a very big TJ fan.

[fredtoast]

Over the first 4 years of Isaac Curtis's career ('73-'76) he was just 13th in receptions with 160. But he was first in yards per reception (19.9) and second in receiving yards (3176) and tds (32). Arguably the 2nd best WR in the entire league behind Hall-of-Famer Cliff Branch.

And that was during one of the worst eras in league history for the passing game. A lot of people think the passing game has just gotten consistently better over the years but the passing numbers from the 60's were better than the early 70's. In Ike's rookie season ('73) the league average team passing numbers were 52.0% completion percentage, 1974 yards (140.9 per game), 14 tds, 18 ints, and a 64.9 rating. When Curtis amassed 934 receiving yards in 1975 it was not just the second highest total that year. It was also the 8th highest over that 4 year period.

[Whatever]

(06-20-2022, 10:29 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: See this is why I hate when people try to compare skill positions across eras.

1 - The rules are so vastly different. It is so much easier to play WR in today's NFL. CBs have to keep their hands off you, no head hunting LBers trying to take you out. Everything in the modern NFL is built to increase scoring which increases viewers, which increases revenue. I understand it completely but to say any player in today's NFL is the goat because of numbers is misguided.

2 - QB, QB, QB!!!! Carl Pickens put up really good numbers with really bad teams, and really bad coaches and a coaching carousel. Chase and Higgins will statistcially be at the top of most things for Bengals WRs before it is all said and done (unless Higgins takes a big contract elsewhere). Is it really that Chase is just soooooo much better than Chad Johnson or Pickens or Green or Curtis? Or is it Chase and Higgins are catching balls from the guy who will go down as the best QB the team has ever had, with a good defense on the other side. Certainly a better situation then other WR's have had with the exception of a few years with Anderson in the early 80's and a few with Boomer in the late 80's.

A guy needs to be compared to his peers only in his own era. In that environment of the same rules, same coaches, same variables, the stats are viable and prove a trend.

When mutliple variables are changed (era, coaches, QBs) can't compare stats and expect for the results to be correct.

It's very tough to compare between eras, particularly when we don't have all the statistical tools that we have today for legends like Curtis.

Fair or not, Chase and Tee will always be linked to one of the all time great Bengal teams, which will elevate their status in the GoaT Bengal WR discussion.  It's too early to crown either guy.  IMO, Chase has the ability to eclipse all the others, but he has to prove it over time.  Burrow certainly helps, but there are just too many ridiculous plays to discount Chase's abilities.  I also hate to say it, but Chase has been a guy that in big games and big moments, his star has shined brightest while many of our all time great WR's have had a tendency to wilt under the bright lights.

[KillerGoose]

(06-20-2022, 10:55 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Player A: Played from 1974-1982. He amassed 336 receptions, 5.462 yards, and 51 TDs

Player B: Played from 1973-1984. He amassed 416 catches, 7101 yards, and 53 TDs

Player A is a NFL Hall of Famer

Player B is the 8th best WR in Bengal history

Lynn Swan is interesting. I was under the impression that he made the Hall based off of his postseason performances and overall team success. Even era adjusting his individual statistics, they aren't anything particularly impressive. Here is Lynn Swans entire career with his metrics adjusted to 2021 levels...

1974 - 14 catches, 84 yards, 2 TDs.
1975 - 85 catches, 1068 yards, 12 TDs
1976 - 51 catches, 732 yards, 3 TDs
1977 - 100 catches, 1231 yards, 9 TDs
1978 - 107 catches, 1076 yards, 12 TDs
1979 - 65 catches, 1015 yards, 6 TDs
1980 - 71 catches, 928 yards, 9 TDs
1981 - 50 catches, 537 yards, 6 TDs
1982 - 64 catches, 705 yards, zero TDs (he was injured this season)

One thing that stands out is his consistency in scoring TDs. I'm really not sure who to compare this kind of production to. The immediate comparison that stands out is Julian Edelman; a WR who wasn't a superstar but was good and known specifically for his postseason performances. Our own T.J. Houshmandzadeh stands out as well, he had similar lines posted in the mid-2000s. Marvin Jones. 

All of this to say, Lynn wasn't known for his impressive numbers that he put up in the regular season. He was known for winning four Super Bowl rings, being MVP in one of them, his famous catch and overall playoff performances. That's why I bring up Edelman, there are folks arguing about Julian for the HoF based on his postseason production. 

[Whatever]

(06-21-2022, 09:55 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Lynn Swan is interesting. I was under the impression that he made the Hall based off of his postseason performances and overall team success. Even era adjusting his individual statistics, they aren't anything particularly impressive. Here is Lynn Swans entire career with his metrics adjusted to 2021 levels...

1974 - 14 catches, 84 yards, 2 TDs.
1975 - 85 catches, 1068 yards, 12 TDs
1976 - 51 catches, 732 yards, 3 TDs
1977 - 100 catches, 1231 yards, 9 TDs
1978 - 107 catches, 1076 yards, 12 TDs
1979 - 65 catches, 1015 yards, 6 TDs
1980 - 71 catches, 928 yards, 9 TDs
1981 - 50 catches, 537 yards, 6 TDs
1982 - 64 catches, 705 yards, zero TDs (he was injured this season)

One thing that stands out is his consistency in scoring TDs. I'm really not sure who to compare this kind of production to. The immediate comparison that stands out is Julian Edelman; a WR who wasn't a superstar but was good and known specifically for his postseason performances. Our own T.J. Houshmandzadeh stands out as well, he had similar lines posted in the mid-2000s. Marvin Jones. 

All of this to say, Lynn wasn't known for his impressive numbers that he put up in the regular season. He was known for winning four Super Bowl rings, being MVP in one of them, his famous catch and overall playoff performances. That's why I bring up Edelman, there are folks arguing about Julian for the HoF based on his postseason production. 

From what I was told from a long time Steelers fan, Swann is basically in because he showed up big in nationally televised games.  Those were rare back in the day and fans didn't get to see players very often and he kind of fooled people into thinking he was better than he really was by coming up big in those games with a national audience.