Did We get Lucky?

[Bengalfan4life27c]

Burrow is really good and plays the more important position. WTS: What Chase did as a rookie I never seen before. He already knows how to beat DB's in so many ways, Chase intelligence and athletic talent may be best I have ever seen. I seen Rice he struggled as a rookie that is the closest comparison but unlike Rice he can high point a ball like megatron as well.

[BFritz21]

(07-11-2022, 04:20 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: No. Burrow getting his knee destroyed is never going to be "lucky". Having a long healthy career for Burrow where he never has any major surgeries would be lucky.

The Bengals were also 2-7-1 with Burrow as the starter, and 2-6 without him. So the idea that they would have won more games and not had a chance to take Chase is hardly any kind of guarantee or even a strong likelihood.

Brady tore his MCL and ACL in 2007(?) like Burrow did and he's still playing at age 60.

I know he's outside of the norm and a freak of nature, but medical treatments have also advanced a lot since then.

Having him getting injured while he was still young and where it wouldn't be as devastating, which allowed us to get a receiver that could pair with him to be one of the best, if not the best, quarterback-receiver duos of all-time was definitely lucky.

You're right that it's not a guarantee, and our division was strong that year, but you have to think that Burrow would have won us even more games because we also had a shitty line last year and he took us to the Super Bowl (I know we wouldn't have even made the playoffs, but we most likely would have won more games).

[ATOTR]

(07-12-2022, 11:34 AM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: Burrow is really good and plays the more important position. WTS: What Chase did as a rookie I never seen before. He already knows how to beat DB's in so many ways, Chase intelligence and athletic talent may be best I have ever seen. I seen Rice he struggled as a rookie that is the closest comparison but unlike Rice he can high point a ball like megatron as well.

I found it interesting that Chase was a 4 star, who originally committed to Kansas.

KANSAS?  That is like the green mile for college football. 

Obviously, prospect rankings are often times very wrong. 

Mahomes was a 3 Star Recruit
Chase 4 Star
Burrow 4 Star
Jacob Eason 5 star 
Jonathan Taylor 3 Star 
etc

[WeezyBengal]

(07-12-2022, 10:19 AM)Au165 Wrote: It's weird how TY Hilton has been disregarded by some (Not directed at OP) in the narrative to paint Luck as having no help.

TY was a good receiver, not a great one. He was also injured a bunch. What other weapons did they have, though? Their OL was terrible and their defense was just OK. 

[ATOTR]

(07-12-2022, 11:53 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: TY was a good receiver, not a great one. He was also injured a bunch. What other weapons did they have, though? Their OL was terrible and their defense was just OK. 

I completely agree 

The Colts had less overall offensive talent for Luck than any team I have ever seen for a tier 1 QB. 

Colby ***** Fleener was Lucks #2 option in his best season (2014)

And his RBs were Richardson, Ahmed Bradshaw and Boom Heron. Lol

[WeezyBengal]

(07-12-2022, 11:57 AM)ATOTR Wrote: I completely agree 

The Colts had less overall offensive talent for Luck than any team I have ever seen for a tier 1 QB. 

Colby ***** Fleener was Lucks #2 option in his best season (2014)

And his RBs were Richardson, Ahmed Bradshaw and Boom Heron. Lol

wtf happened to Trent Richardson. That guy was such a beast in college but turned out to be a huge turd in the NFL. 

[CKwi88]

San Francisco thought the same thing for a few years with Garropolo and getting Bosa (I think?).

Now I bet they don't think they're that lucky.

As for an answer. Maybe, maybe not. Hard to categorize a catastrophic knee injury as lucky. And I'm not even sure how many more games we win with a healthy Burrow his rookie season.

[Big_Ern]

(07-12-2022, 11:00 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Hypothetically, let's assume that with a healthy Burrow in 2020 the Bengals would have picked in the 15-20 range of the draft.
If the Bengals would have taken a WR, it likely would have been either Bateman or Toney.
OL could have also been in play, with either Leatherwood or Darrisaw being the pick.
DL or DB could have also been in play.

There were definitely some games that Chase was a big reason they won in 2021. I don't think Bateman, Toney, or a defensive player would have necessarily contributed as much in 2021 as Chase did.
About the only thing I think may have come close is having one of the OL. One could have slotted in at RG.
And if an OL would have been taken in Rd 1, we probably wouldn't have seen Carman selected.
Instead, maybe it would have been Terrace Marshall. He didn't do much with CAR last year, but they had Darnold at QB (downgrade from Burrow) and he was behind Moore, Anderson, and McCaffrey in targets. He may have put up somewhere in the 500-800 range if he were a Bengal.

Probably be in position to take Slater. A nice conciliation prize in lieu of Chase. Or Micah Parsons 

[Au165]

(07-12-2022, 11:53 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: TY was a good receiver, not a great one. He was also injured a bunch. What other weapons did they have, though? Their OL was terrible and their defense was just OK. 

What? No. 

Ty Hilton missed exactly 4 games while Andrew Luck played football. During that time period he eclipsed 1k yards every year except his rookie year and the year Luck missed entirely (Still got 997). He broke 1200 receiving yards 3 times during that span and was a pro bowler 4 times. Led the league in receiving yards in 2016.

He was better than just a good receiver, he was about as good as any QB could ask for (top half #1 in league) out of their number 1 and we continue to give Luck a pass for his own failures. He was reckless with his body and the ball at times.

[*Synric*]

(07-12-2022, 11:59 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: wtf happened to Trent Richardson. That guy was such a beast in college but turned out to be a huge turd in the NFL. 

That Alabama Offensive line was amazing Richardson had huge holes to run through in college... when he got to the NFL it really highlighted his poor vision.

[ATOTR]

(07-12-2022, 01:41 PM)Synric Wrote: That Alabama Offensive line was amazing Richardson had huge holes to run through in college... when he got to the NFL it really highlighted his poor vision.

Kind of follows that lineage of big, not great speed backs, but bruisers, who either have a small window of success, or non at all. 

Eddie Lacey 
Bo Scarborough
Richardson
Maroney 
Marion Barber 
TJ Duckett 


Then, of course you have your Derrick Henry and he kind of ruins the argument.  But, he is also fast as hell.  

[ATOTR]

(07-12-2022, 01:26 PM)Au165 Wrote: What? No. 

Ty Hilton missed exactly 4 games while Andrew Luck played football. During that time period he eclipsed 1k yards every year except his rookie year and the year Luck missed entirely (Still got 997). He broke 1200 receiving yards 3 times during that span and was a pro bowler 4 times. Led the league in receiving yards in 2016.

He was better than just a good receiver, he was about as good as any QB could ask for (top half #1 in league) out of their number 1 and we continue to give Luck a pass for his own failures. He was reckless with his body and the ball at times.

Luck was a generational talent at QB - I will take all of the experts, and my own assessment over yours. 

He was careless with the ball?  Career 2.5% INT Rate.  That is lower than Dalton and Palmer

He did have a horrific line, and got sacked a ton.   I guess that is is fault; after all he had 36 year old Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton, Colby Fleener, Donte Moncrief , Jack Doyle and Dwayne Allen to throw to in his best years. 

[Au165]

(07-12-2022, 01:55 PM)ATOTR Wrote: Luck was a generational talent at QB - I will take all of the experts, and my own assessment over yours. 

He was careless with the ball?  Career 2.5% INT Rate.  That is lower than Dalton and Palmer

He did have a horrific line, and got sacked a ton.   I guess that is is fault; after all he had 36 year old Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton, Colby Fleener, Donte Moncrief , Jack Doylw and Dwayne Allen to throw to in his best years. 

His 44 fumbles in six seasons is where the recklessness came in. The book on him was always to go for the strip on him when he took off because he held the ball way too far away from his body. When you combine that with his INTs that weren’t awful but not great you had a guy who gave away plenty of games.

As to the Oline thing he actually created a lot of his own sacks beyond the Oline. Burrow does this at times too, but this is where the careless with his body thing comes in.

Bottom line, for being “generational” he never actually did anything “generational”. He was a good QB who was probably not as good as the hype and couldn’t carry a team. We can’t both say a guy is generational then start complaining about his lack of supporting cast, that’s kind of the whole idea about being generational you rise above that

[ATOTR]

(07-12-2022, 11:59 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: wtf happened to Trent Richardson. That guy was such a beast in college but turned out to be a huge turd in the NFL. 

Too big to evade tacklers. 

He did have 405 total yards vs the bengals, including 2  110+ yard all purpose games, and 2 Tds against us. 

If he played the Bengals only for 3 straight years, he would have been arian foster 

[*ochocincos*]

(07-12-2022, 12:17 PM)Big_Ern Wrote: Probably be in position to take Slater. A nice conciliation prize in lieu of Chase. Or Micah Parsons 

If Bengals had landed in the 10-15 range yeah.
Maybe they would have.

[ATOTR]

(07-12-2022, 02:01 PM)Au165 Wrote: His 44 fumbles in six seasons is where the recklessness came in. The book on him was always to go for the strip on him when he took off because he held the ball way too far away from his body. When you combine that with his INTs that weren’t awful but not great you had a guy who gave away plenty of games.

As to the Oline thing he actually created a lot of his own sacks beyond the Oline. Burrow does this at times too, but this is where the careless with his body thing comes in.

Bottom line, for being “generational” he never actually did anything “generational”. He was a good QB who was probably not as good as the hype and couldn’t carry a team. We can’t both say a guy is generational then start complaining about his lack of supporting cast, that’s kind of the whole idea about being generational you rise above that

That is fair - Agree 100% w your last part. 

I just think they failed miserably to get talent and protection around him.    He walked away from 60 Million for a reason

[Au165]

(07-12-2022, 02:13 PM)ATOTR Wrote: That is fair - Agree 100% w your last part. 

I just think they failed miserably to get talent and protection around him.    He walked away from 60 Million for a reason

We are way off topic now, but there was a belief even coming out he wasn’t a “football guy” as in he had other interests and had a life beyond football he was looking forward to. Other guys get that knock often but usually with the QB’s it’s a bit more concerning because of how much money they get so quickly.

Rounding this back on topic, that is one thing Burrow has going for him. People have said from the day he came out he lives for football, it’s all he knows or cares about. I do think there will come a time where he will have to play with less talent to offset his own contract but I think when that time comes he’ll be able to elevate the guys around him to do it.

[WeezyBengal]

The problem with Luck was that he was a reckless guy on and off the field. He screwed up his body and got injured repeatedly snowboarding and he wasn't smart taking care of his body on the field. His injuries weren't all football related, though. That's a little known fact.

[*jason*]

(07-12-2022, 03:27 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: The problem with Luck was that he was a reckless guy on and off the field. He screwed up his body and got injured repeatedly snowboarding and he wasn't smart taking care of his body on the field. His injuries weren't all football related, though. That's a little known fact.

I don't know about off of it, but our boy can be pretty reckless on the field himself...

[Au165]

(07-12-2022, 03:46 PM)jason Wrote: I don't know about off of it, but our boy can be pretty reckless on the field himself...

Yep, he will need to take care of himself more going forward. There is a time to be the hero and there is a time to live to play another day. What he thinks is selfless is sometimes selfish because trying to will your team to victory by yourself and getting hurt can potentially end your teams season. 

The other thing is you have to "earn" getting roughing the passer calls in the league as dumb as it is. Now that Burrow is a star he will start getting more calls for some of the late hits he has been taking which will help protect him in itself.