Castillo to Seattle

[cinci4life]

For 4 prospects including top SS Noelvi Marte.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/mariners-finalizing-acquisition-of-luis-castillo-from-reds.html

[guyofthetiger]

Well, this is about what I expected. Hope the prospects work out.

[CJD]

Wow, what a haul. This is much better than I thought we'd get. Marte is a top 15 prospect in all of baseball.

[samhain]

(07-30-2022, 12:27 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Wow, what a haul. This is much better than I thought we'd get. Marte is a top 15 prospect in all of baseball.

I read a tweet from the Athletic's Mariners beat writer that basically stated that Arroyo was very close to being as good as Marte.  Not quite, but close.  This is better than the Jose Berrios return.  

The Reds now have 6 top 100 MLB prospects, perhaps more when the new list is tallied.  It will take time, but they should be good by 2024 or 2025.    de la Cruz is going to be a monster.  It's crazy, but the reds now have 5 solid to great SS prospects, and Barrero is probably the 5th best.

[kevin]

We can start calling them The Seattle Reds with Suarez, Winker and now Castillo. Just as in 1983 Howard Cosell kept calling The Phillies the Reds all through the World Series. On making the error over and over, Cosell said, " I'm sorry I keep calling them The Reds, but you can see my mistake. They have Pete Rose, Joe Morgan and Tony Perez." So if someone would now accidently call The Mariners as The Reds, it would be the same honest mistake.

I still hate to see The Reds dumping so many players over the last 2 years.

However getting 4 players in return isn't bad. The Key is this Shortstop that is listed as one of the best shortstops coming up in the Minor Leagues. Plus they got a 2nd Shortstop in the deal, and a Starting Pitcher and a Relief Pitcher. This helps in THE FUTURE because The Louisville Bats are in Last Place also, so not much Help coming up from Louisville. So this trade does add to The Reds Minor Leagues and hopefully to The Reds in THE FUTURE.

So The Reds try to restock their Minor Leagues. Meanwhile, I might be like Howard Cosell and start calling them The Seattle Reds, with Suarez, Winker and Castillo added to Seattle just this year.

The Yankees are crying, but the Yankees weren't willing to give up anybody. They thought the Reds should just give them Castillo for free. That's how The New York Yankees are. They can go ahead and cry, Seattle actually offered some players in return.

Oh yes, not that it means much, but the Reds once traded Dave Parker who should have won the MVP after a great year, to Seattle. What we got from Seattle didn't show right away. However in THE FUTURE was World Series MVP Jose Rijo that Reds got in the Dave Parker trade. So Reds have had luck trading with Seattle, and bad luck trading with Washington Nationals. Seattle trades have been OK in the past for Reds

[TecmoBengals]

I'm disappointed but not surprised to see Castillo go. Prospects on a losing franchise doesn't do much to excite me right now. Who knows, maybe they young guys can all mesh well together for a spectacular season before being traded or leaving in free agency.

[Goalpost]

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/reds/

Marte becomes the Red's top prospect This year's top draft pick, Collier, not listed yet.

[leonardfan40]

I’ve bashed the reds a lot the last few years. Here is finally a move I agree with in the moment. They tanked this year before it started and the team is trash. Have to trade him now with 1.5 years left so we get a good return. Won’t compete next year so no reason to hold on to him.

Trade itself was very good for us prospects wise, I was concerned they’d botch it but it looks good.

Now continue the fire sale. I don’t care if we don’t win another game this year. Trade Mahle, Drury, etc for as many prospects as we can get to set us up with the best farm system in the league. DONT salary dump moose and lower our prospect return on Mahle.

Ride out the last year of Moose/votto. They won’t sign anybody worth a damn anyway for next year cause we’ll suck anyway. Then 2 years from now we may have hope again in Cincinnati.

[guyofthetiger]

I'm kinda rooting for Seatle to win the World Series this year because of our players on the team.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(07-30-2022, 02:57 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: I’ve bashed the reds a lot the last few years. Here is finally a move I agree with in the moment. They tanked this year before it started and the team is trash. Have to trade him now with 1.5 years left so we get a good return. Won’t compete next year so no reason to hold on to him.

Trade itself was very good for us prospects wise, I was concerned they’d botch it but it looks good.

Now continue the fire sale. I don’t care if we don’t win another game this year. Trade Mahle, Drury, etc for as many prospects as we can get to set us up with the best farm system in the league. DONT salary dump moose and lower our prospect return on Mahle.

Ride out the last year of Moose/votto. They won’t sign anybody worth a damn anyway for next year cause we’ll suck anyway. Then 2 years from now we may have hope again in Cincinnati.

I've been resigned to pretty much this exact thought process since the moment I clicked on the link for the Winker/Suarez trade.

[*bengalfan74*]

(07-30-2022, 02:57 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: I’ve bashed the reds a lot the last few years. Here is finally a move I agree with in the moment. They tanked this year before it started and the team is trash. Have to trade him now with 1.5 years left so we get a good return. Won’t compete next year so no reason to hold on to him.

Trade itself was very good for us prospects wise, I was concerned they’d botch it but it looks good.

Now continue the fire sale. I don’t care if we don’t win another game this year. Trade Mahle, Drury, etc for as many prospects as we can get to set us up with the best farm system in the league. DONT salary dump moose and lower our prospect return on Mahle.

Ride out the last year of Moose/votto. They won’t sign anybody worth a damn anyway for next year cause we’ll suck anyway. Then 2 years from now we may have hope again in Cincinnati.

Yep

I was afraid they'd end up with a couple 30 year old backups. Seems like they did ok

[*psychdoctor*]

Reds get 3 of Mariners top 5 prospect, however, Mariners have mid level talent farm. I think cruz will move to corner OF in a couple years. Votto will be gone after next year, Moose will be around two more years it seems. Still, I do think Reds did about all they could for a Player likely not signed by Reds long term. I think Mahle is next and maybe they get something for Drury.

[CJD]

(07-31-2022, 07:32 AM)psychdoctor Wrote: Reds get 3 of Mariners top 5 prospect,  however, Mariners have mid level talent farm.  I think cruz will move to corner OF in a couple years.  Votto will be gone after next year, Moose will be around two more years it seems.  Still, I do think Reds did about all they could for a Player likely not signed by Reds long term.  I think Mahle is next and maybe they get something for Drury.

Bleacher Report recently (right before the trade) did a mid season farm system ranking and they had Seattle as the 17th ranked system. However, they did have both Marte and Arroyo as "tier 1" prospects, defined like this:

Quote:

• Tier 1: Prospects who have elite skill sets and All-Star potential. This is the cream of the prospect crop. These players will make up B/R's updated Top 100 prospect list when it publishes next week.
  

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10042595-updated-mlb-farm-system-rankings-after-2022-mlb-draft

The Reds were ranked 14th overall and already have 3 Tier 1 prospects, EDLC, Lodolo and Collier. This trade means we now have 5 tier 1 prospects according to this guy's rankings, which probably pushes us into the top 5 in terms of farm systems.

Keith Law released his updated top 60 prospects today and he has EDLC as the 8th best prospect in baseball, Marte as 12th, Collier as 29th with Arroyo as an honorable mention.

Quote:

1. 8. Elly de la Cruz, SS, Cincinnati Reds

Previous ranking: No. 69
If we’re just going on upside, de la Cruz is the best prospect in the minors right now; he just carries more risk than some of the players ahead of him, stemming from the hit tool. De la Cruz is an incredible athlete, with 80 raw power and 80 running speed, lightning quick hands, and a 70 arm. He has the tools and agility to stay at shortstop, although he’s not consistent on defense and is going to be very big for the position. He does swing and miss too often, including on pitches in-zone, but that’s why he’s not at No. 1. There is a much lower probability for de la Cruz than the seven guys ahead of him, but his ceiling tops them all.

Quote:

1. 12. Noelvi Marte, SS, Cincinnati Reds

Previous ranking: No. 11
The best prospect of the four heading back to the Reds for Luis Castillo, Marte got off to a slow start this year, but the big-bodied shortstop has been hitting the cover off the ball for the last six weeks, more than doubling his season home run total in that span while walking about as often as he strikes out. I think he’s going to outgrow shortstop, and he’s lost a little speed as he’s filled out even since last season, but he has the hands and arm to move to third. He’s already outpacing his offensive performance from last year and is still just 20 years old in High A.

https://theathletic.com/3461142/2022/08/01/mlb-top-prospects-2022-minor-leaguers/ 

I won't share the 3rd paragraph about Coller to comply with these forum guidelines but, suffice it to say, I am actually excited for the future of the Reds, which is not something I would have said at the beginning of this season. I am hopeful that, after 1 more rebuilding year, we start to get a few of these prospects into the majors in 2024 and start to make some noise in the 6 to 7 year window that these prospects afford a ball club.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-01-2022, 12:14 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Bleacher Report recently (right before the trade) did a mid season farm system ranking and they had Seattle as the 17th ranked system. However, they did have both Marte and Arroyo as "tier 1" prospects, defined like this:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10042595-updated-mlb-farm-system-rankings-after-2022-mlb-draft

The Reds were ranked 14th overall and already have 3 Tier 1 prospects, EDLC, Lodolo and Collier. This trade means we now have 5 tier 1 prospects according to this guy's rankings, which probably pushes us into the top 5 in terms of farm systems.

Keith Law released his updated top 60 prospects today and he has EDLC as the 8th best prospect in baseball, Marte as 12th, Collier as 29th with Arroyo as an honorable mention.



https://theathletic.com/3461142/2022/08/01/mlb-top-prospects-2022-minor-leaguers/ 

I won't share the 3rd paragraph about Coller to comply with these forum guidelines but, suffice it to say, I am actually excited for the future of the Reds, which is not something I would have said at the beginning of this season. I am hopeful that, after 1 more rebuilding year, we start to get a few of these prospects into the majors in 2024 and start to make some noise in the 6 to 7 year window that these prospects afford a ball club.

Who knows what Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft will be in two years ? But it seems they may be building a decent foundation for starting pitching and that's what separates the great teams from the good ones.

Maybe, just maybe on rebuild #9 or whatever current ownership is on they've finally figured it out ?

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(08-01-2022, 02:00 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Who knows what Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft will be in two years ? But it seems they may be building a decent foundation for starting pitching and that's what separates the great teams from the good ones.

Maybe, just maybe on rebuild #9 or whatever current ownership is on they've finally figured it out ?

Don't forget Overton is expected to be back in about a month. That would give them 4 rookie starting pitchers

[CJD]

(08-01-2022, 02:00 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Who knows what Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft will be in two years ? But it seems they may be building a decent foundation for starting pitching and that's what separates the great teams from the good ones.

Maybe, just maybe on rebuild #9 or whatever current ownership is on they've finally figured it out ?

We made a lot of mistakes in terms of when to trigger the rebuild in the past. Like holding onto Todd Frazier because we were hosting the all star game. He won the home run derby in his home stadium as part of the Reds and that was fantastic, but then he slumped HARD in the 2nd half of that season (.890, 1.081, .908 OPS in April, May, June, .634, .656, .716 OPS in July, August, September) and we ended up getting pennies on the dollar for him in December of that year (Jose Peraza, Brandon Dixon, Scott Schebler).

In a similar move, they chose not to trade Johnny Cueto in 2014, a season in which they finished 10 games under .500, when he still had team control because he was in the running for NL Cy Young (He ultimately came in second to Kershaw). The following season they traded him as a rental and, honestly, didn't get that much in return. It looked like an okay return at the time but Finnegan was the only player who was considered a top 100 prospect and Reed was one of these "once he puts it all together, he'll be great" prospects who never put it all together. Lamb was an injured prospect who never recovered from injuries, so we ended up getting essentially nothing for Cueto either.

Aroldis Chapman may be the most abhorrent example, as we panic traded him for what can only be considered "nothing" after he got in some legal trouble for firing his gun in his garage and domestic violence. They traded him before his suspension was announced because they were terrified that he'd be suspended for the whole year and lose all of his value. Turns out, he was only suspended for 30 games. We got Eric Jagielo, Tony Renda, Caleb Cotham and Rookie Davis. I'm not sure a single one of them spent much time in the majors. My only recollection was of Davis being terrible for a few appearances here and there. What stung even more was that the Yankees traded Chapman at the deadline for, if I recall correctly, a top 10 prospect in all of baseball (ranked #3 in 2017), Gleyber Torres, who is currently on the Yankees' roster as their starting SS with 3.1 WAR so far this season. 

And then the 2018 trade for Puig, Kemp, Wood and Farmer for Homer Bailey, Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs did delay our rebuild because we gave up two highly rated prospects for a few rentals and a salary dump. This one didn't even up hurting as badly as it initially looked like it would because Gray and Downs are not yet elite players, but Gray is consistently starting in Washington now. Downs was traded to Boston as the main piece in the Mookie Betts trade and was called up this season, but his prospect status remains iffy, as he had an absolutely horrific 2021 and beginning of 2022 (.191/.272/.333 with 14 home runs and 39 runs batted in last season and then posting a slash line of .180/.297/.397 through 53 games this season as of June 20th). He dropped from #44 in the top 100 to out of the top 100 entirely because of those stats, but he still has some prospect shine to him, we'll see if he ever makes something out of it.


The Castillo trade, however, feels like the first time in any of the rebuilds of my lifetime that they actually got a REALLY good return for a veteran. That alone makes me much more optimistic about this rebuild than the last few. The 2020-2021 "rebuild" was not a true rebuild because it was built around free agency and relatively short rentals rather than prospects (Castellanos on a surprisingly cheap short term deal, Trevor Bauer possibly cheating to get the Cy Young, Sonny Gray playing well above his trade value etc). It kind of felt like they were trying to sneak a world series out before it all, predictably, came crashing down (which it did, very quickly).


I am hopeful that this time we do it the right way, with several elite talents hitting the major leagues at the same time and giving us a full 5 to 7 year window of cheap, team controlled talent in players like EDLC, Marte, India, Stephenson, McClain and Senzel all playing in the lineup with Lodolo, Greene, Ashcraft, Williamson and someone like Petty or Stoudt filling out the starting rotation. 

We should be done with Votto and Moose after 2023 (assuming we buy both of them out in 2024), so we should have some money to fill in those last few pieces like the bullpen and potentially the outfield (if Marte moves to 3B, McClain stays at SS and EDLC moves to CF, that would likely move Senzel to LF and we'd need a RF, DH and 1B) in 2024 and 2025. And that is a team that is actually sustainably built and should largely stay together until at least 2027 or so. That is a large enough window for us to get 3 to 4 years of genuinely enjoyable baseball out of the team, even if they remain cheap like they have been this season.

Collier and Arroyo would also sneak into that team in some form at the latter half of it (late 2025 to 2027).



Of course, this is all assuming the players like Marte and EDLC turn into the all star players they have the potential to be. This rebuild could fail just like any other if the players don't work out. But, at the very least, it seems the Reds are actually doing it correctly this time, rather than the Band-aid rebuild of 2020-21 or the failed rebuilds of 2015 through 2018 (via terrible value trades).

[*bengalfan74*]

I'm hoping they can get something for Drury before he flames out.

[CJD]

(08-01-2022, 04:03 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I'm hoping they can get something for Drury before he flames out.

I'm hoping that we pair him with Mahle to get a legitimate OF bat. I'm not sure those two are worth a top 100 prospect, but if you find a team in desperate need, it's possible.

[*psychdoctor*]

(08-01-2022, 12:14 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Bleacher Report recently (right before the trade) did a mid season farm system ranking and they had Seattle as the 17th ranked system. However, they did have both Marte and Arroyo as "tier 1" prospects, defined like this:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10042595-updated-mlb-farm-system-rankings-after-2022-mlb-draft

The Reds were ranked 14th overall and already have 3 Tier 1 prospects, EDLC, Lodolo and Collier. This trade means we now have 5 tier 1 prospects according to this guy's rankings, which probably pushes us into the top 5 in terms of farm systems.

Keith Law released his updated top 60 prospects today and he has EDLC as the 8th best prospect in baseball, Marte as 12th, Collier as 29th with Arroyo as an honorable mention.



https://theathletic.com/3461142/2022/08/01/mlb-top-prospects-2022-minor-leaguers/ 

I won't share the 3rd paragraph about Coller to comply with these forum guidelines but, suffice it to say, I am actually excited for the future of the Reds, which is not something I would have said at the beginning of this season. I am hopeful that, after 1 more rebuilding year, we start to get a few of these prospects into the majors in 2024 and start to make some noise in the 6 to 7 year window that these prospects afford a ball club.

Nice.  The problem I am having with marte is he seems prone to error at least at shortstop.  They also have like five top level shortstops so they're going to have to move somebody around

[TecmoBengals]

(08-01-2022, 04:03 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I'm hoping they can get something for Drury before he flames out.

Krall said they don't plan on extending him. I assume because he's earning himself a good contract they have no interest in paying him. I also hope they trade him today.