What Vegas and the National Media is not talking about

[AlphaBengal]

(08-23-2022, 11:18 AM)Frank Booth Wrote: Well that’s because Joe Burrow.

Welcome back

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-23-2022, 11:02 AM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: 1 more point I would like to add the Bills had 6 games in a weak AFC east that 1 of those 6 was in gale force winds against only other decent team in their division They also had games against Jags, Texans, Panthers, Falcons and Saints with 3rd string QB. Yet many analysts proclaimed Bills best team in the NFL that got robbed by OT yet Bengals were faced with same scenario following week and overcame.

The Bills are an interesting team. They sometimes look elite and sometimes get beat by the lowest competition.

When they are on they are nearly unstoppable. Weird how much different the Bills and the Bengals treated our 2nd Preseason 
games the complete opposite. They started all of their starters against the Broncos who did not start their starters and just went
in and destroyed the Broncos I guess to gain confidence going into the season. They are deep too unlike us, for instance I really 
like Case Keenum, that is about as good of a backup QB as you could get behind Josh Allen.

Shakir should also really help them behind Diggs and they also added OJ Howard. Their Defense was #1 overall last season I 
believe but they sure didn't look like it against the Chiefs, the same team our Defense held to 6 points in 2 second halfs in the 
biggest games of the year for us and the Chiefs when we played in the AFC Championship.

Cannot wait to see our matchup this year with the Bills and how we stack up.

It is the most anticipated game in my eyes besides maybe the Brady vs Burrow matchup.

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-23-2022, 11:20 AM)fredtoast Wrote: We literally won three games on the last play of the game (Vikes, Jags, Chiefs) in the regular season.

The majority of NFL games are decided by one score. This entire thing is a silly argument to make due to the large number of games that could hinge on one play. 

[fredtoast]

(08-23-2022, 01:58 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: The majority of NFL games are decided by one score. This entire thing is a silly argument to make due to the large number of games that could hinge on one play. 

Actually, if you read the article he makes a point of showing that not all games decided by "one score" are as close as they appear.  So he just uses the 60 something games where the game was actually decided on one play in the final moments.

The NFL Teams That Made Their Own Luck — And Misfortune — In 2021 | FiveThirtyEight

According to ESPN Stats & Information Group’s win probability model, 66 out of 272 regular-season games in 2021 could truly have gone either way at the finish. (As in my previous article, I defined a “coin-flip game” as having a win-probability split of 60/40 or closer at some point within the last five minutes of the game.)

[pdub2005]

(08-22-2022, 08:39 PM)fredtoast Wrote: So you believe that the Bengals just chose to not plan or use their skill through the first 13 games of the season?

That is an interesting theory.

I mean doesn't your narrative skip a vital variable in that Burrow was coming off mega knee surgery and had yet to play a full season in the NFL? Couldn't a lot hiccups early in the season be at least partially explained by that?

[Soonerpeace]

(08-23-2022, 02:54 PM)pdub2005 Wrote: I mean doesn't your narrative skip a vital variable in that Burrow was coming off mega knee surgery and had yet to play a full season in the NFL? Couldn't a lot hiccups early in the season be at least partially explained by that?

His narratives always skip vital variables

[fredtoast]

(08-23-2022, 02:54 PM)pdub2005 Wrote: I mean doesn't your narrative skip a vital variable in that Burrow was coming off mega knee surgery and had yet to play a full season in the NFL? Couldn't a lot hiccups early in the season be at least partially explained by that?

(08-23-2022, 02:56 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: His narratives always skip vital variables

I have already addressed this in this very thread.

I don't skip anything.  You boys just can't keep up.

(08-23-2022, 10:34 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually I have said many times that the biggest key to the turnaround was the fact that Burrrow was leading the league in interceptions over the first 14 weeks then just threw 2 over his final 7 games.  

But from what I recall Burrow did not blame his knee injury for the interceptions.  Instead it was poor decision making.  He was trying to force too much.  A coach can't fix an injury, but he should be able to manage his QBs decision making.

[pdub2005]

(08-23-2022, 04:04 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I have already addressed this in this very thread.

I don't skip anything.  You boys just can't keep up.

I need to go back through, I know you responded down in a later reply about Burrow's injury playing a factor. I seem to remember you saying that Joe himself said it wasn't a factor in the interceptions, which IMO isn't really evidence of much other than that Burrow didn't want to make excuses. Athletes lie, surprise! Regardless of the injury, Burrow not having played a complete season if anything bolsters the point about Burrow's bad decision making early on in the season. People tend to get better at things the longer they do it. All this to say that while we did get some luck, I wouldn't call anything a fluke. EVERY team that makes it deep has some bounces go their way. Its like BAPIP, there are certain things you can do to put yourself in a better position to be lucky (IE in baseball you could be really good at pulling the ball), but at the end of the day fate/dumb luck(or bad luck) will always have its say in the outcome. 

IMO to call last season a 'fluke' would be ignoring the strides the team made down the stretch. You can chose to believe that Burrow's interceptions only went down because of dumb luck, but I think its pretty dang likely that Burrow continuing to mature and evolve as a player last season had its say in that. 

Tbh, I have a hard time believing you are doing anything more than play 'devil's advocate' here. I have seen you advocate for the Bengals being improved because the oline revamp, and I wouldn't need to be much of a betting man to think that you also believe that Joe will be even more improved because of his growing experience under center.

Did we get lucky last year? Duh, of course we did, but so did the Rams. Was our run to the super bowl nothing but a fluke? I would weigh on the side of that no it wasn't. All BS aside, I think you do too.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-23-2022, 02:54 PM)pdub2005 Wrote: I mean doesn't your narrative skip a vital variable in that Burrow was coming off mega knee surgery and had yet to play a full season in the NFL? Couldn't a lot hiccups early in the season be at least partially explained by that?

Uh, yeah. That was a monster deal that Fred has been ignoring.

Also a big reason why I think we might see something very special with Burrow being healthy and now having Postseason 
experience in the NFL and going to a SB. I don't know what to expect for Burrow in year 3 in the best shape of his life.

[*bengalfan74*]

(08-22-2022, 10:11 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: The only thing Vegas and the NM cares about is trends. Trend says that only once in the last 27 years has a team lost a SB and returned the next year and that was the GOAT. Before that, it had been 46 years since a team lost a SB and won it the following year. 

In the entirety of the SB era (56 years) only 8 teams have returned to the SB the year after losing it. Three of those times were one team (Bills). Only 3 teams in the SB era have won the SB after losing the previous year. 

Vegas and the NM don't care about continuity and improvements. 

So.... you're saying there's a chance ?

[*bfine32*]

(08-23-2022, 02:30 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Well at least my "trollish schtick" is true instead of 100% BS.

After 13 games we were out of the playoffs.  Five AFC teams had more wins than us (Chiefs, Pats, Titans, Chargers, Ravens).  The Browns had the same record as us but won the head-to-head tiebreaker.  The Colts also had the same record as us but had a better record against the AFC (6-3) than us (5-3).

And week 14 was not just important to me.  Go back and see how many times you see this phrase "We finished 6-2 not counting the Browns."

Ahhh, now I understand why "after 13 games" was so important to you. It's because he was the only time we were out of the playoffs. After 10 games we were in the playoffs, after 11 games we were in the playoffs, after 12 games we were in the playoffs, after 14 games we were in the playoffs and stayed there.

So Fred logic = After 13 games we were tie-breakers out of the playoffs and it was the only time , so it's a fluke we made the playoffs

...and you wonder why folks think you're trolling. 

[*bfine32*]

(08-23-2022, 04:40 PM)Tony Wrote: I see Fred must of succeeded and got someone banned.. Ceasar was cool too..

Fred and I back and forth as much as any on the board (not named Fred and Brad), but I'd be surprised if he tried to get someone banned and even more surprised if the mods took him seriously if he did. 

But yeah, Ceasar had some quality posts. But we don't know everything

[Soonerpeace]

(08-23-2022, 06:46 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Ahhh, now I understand why "after 13 games" was so important to you. It's because he was the only time we were out of the playoffs. After 10 games we were in the playoffs, after 11 games we were in the playoffs, after 12 games we were in the playoffs, after 14 games we were in the playoffs and stayed there.

So Fred logic = After 13 games we were tie-breakers out of the playoffs and it was the only time , so it's a fluke we made the playoffs

...and you wonder why folks think you're trolling. 

So he’s trolling? I thought he was dumb as a rock all this time

[THE PISTONS]

The Bengals best luck aspect was team health. They were remarkably healthy.

The line...while below average got considerably worse when Reiff went down. But overall, the health was great for the nfl.

It's hard to expect the same team health this year.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

(08-23-2022, 07:43 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: The Bengals best luck aspect was team health. They were remarkably healthy.

The line...while below average got considerably worse when Reiff went down. But overall, the health was great for the nfl.

It's hard to expect the same team health this year.

Some of that may have to do with Taylor coming from Mcvay coaching tree no guaranteed starter has played this season on offense or defense

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-23-2022, 09:20 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Then that is a failure on the coaches part.  Our defense was loaded with veterans and zero rookies.  Coaches have to "figure out" how to play defense before the team is almost eliminated from the playoffs.  

Quality coaches don't need half a season to figure out what they are doing.

It isn't entirely on the coaches, as the players have to figure out how to execute the scheme.  And it wasn't that they didn't know how to play at all but they improved at learning how to truly disguise coverages.  That was a large part of the excellence of Lou's defense down the stretch. 

Remember, too, although he wasn't a rookie, Eli Apple had to come in off the bench and learn a new scheme.  He improved tremendously from the first half of the season.  

[*Go Cards*]

(08-23-2022, 11:30 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Bills had 10 regular season games against teams that finished with a winning record.  Bengals only played 7.

What you call the "weak" AFC East had three teams that finished with winning records.  AFC North only had 2.

Bills had the #1 scoring defense and #3 scoring offense playing against a first place schedule.  Bengals had the #7 scoring offense and #17 scoring defense playing against a last place schedule.

Bills won a playoff game by 30 points.

The fact that the Bills lost a game in overtime and the Bengals won one does not outweigh all the other factors.

A deeper dive shows that the Bills played against 6 playoff teams in the regular season and the Bengals played 7. Here is how they faired 

...............Bills..........................................Bengals........................

Steelers......Lost....................................Steelers.............Won
Patriots......Won.....................................Packers.............Lost
Titans .......Lost......................................Raiders.............Won
Bucs..........Lost.......................................Steelers...........Won
Patriots......Lost.......................................Chargers..........Lost
Chiefs.........Won.....................................Chiefs...............Won
.............................................................49ers...............Lost

Bengals went 4-3 against playoff teams in regular season and then went 3-1 in playoffs and the Bills 2-4 and then 1-1 in playoffs. 

The Bills non-playoff teams faced were ....Miami (2), Jets (2), Washington, Houston, Jax, Colts, Saints, Carolina, Falcons. 

The Bengals non-playoff teams faced were .....Ravens (2), Browns (2), Vikings, Bears, Broncos, Jax, Jets, Lions, 

 Thinking by your logic that the Bills were as much of a fluke 


Thinking it was Zac's culture change that Won all those close games though lol

[*Go Cards*]

Overall the Bengals were 7-4 against Playoff teams and the Bills 3-5

In 3 of those 4 losses the Bengals were within a FG and only getting pummeled by the Chargers. Believe even that game was closer than the score indicates though.

The Bills however only played within a FG in 1 of their 5 losses (Titans) and lost by a TD or more in 3 of those games.

I just can't call the Bengals run a fluke

[Soonerpeace]

(08-24-2022, 12:10 PM)Go Cards Wrote: A deeper dive shows that the Bills played against 6 playoff teams in the regular season and the Bengals played 7. Here is how they faired 

...............Bills..........................................Bengals........................

Steelers......Lost....................................Steelers.............Won
Patriots......Won.....................................Packers.............Lost
Titans .......Lost......................................Raiders.............Won
Bucs..........Lost.......................................Steelers...........Won
Patriots......Lost.......................................Chargers..........Lost
Chiefs.........Won.....................................Chiefs...............Won
.............................................................49ers...............Lost

Bengals went 4-3 against playoff teams in regular season and then went 3-1 in playoffs and the Bills 2-4 and then 1-1 in playoffs. 

The Bills non-playoff teams faced were ....Miami (2), Jets (2), Washington, Houston, Jax, Colts, Saints, Carolina, Falcons. 

The Bengals non-playoff teams faced were .....Ravens (2), Browns (2), Vikings, Bears, Broncos, Jax, Jets, Lions, 

 Thinking by your logic that the Bills were as much of a fluke 


Thinking it was Zac's culture change that Won all those close games though lol

Some of your disconnect in this discussion is trying to judge the Bengals on the entire season. They got better. They learned how to win the close games. They went 6-2 ( not counting the Cleveland) their last 8 games against 5 playoff teams. It’s why your logic is flawed.

[*Go Cards*]

(08-24-2022, 12:32 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Some of your disconnect in this discussion is trying to judge the Bengals on the entire season. They got better. They learned how to win the close games. They went 6-2 ( not counting the Cleveland) their last 8 games against 5 playoff teams. It’s why your logic is flawed.

Ok and never claimed differently but it still does not change the fact that the Bengals did better than the Bills when facing quality teams no matter what part of the season. Plus just by the eye test I believe the bengals definitely had as hard of schedule, if not harder.

Surprised you claim differently