What Vegas and the National Media is not talking about

[Bengalholic]

(08-26-2022, 04:42 PM)PhilHos Wrote: How many of those were legitimate attempts to pick up the first down vs little screen passes or dump offs?


Here's the play:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0kWUZ6PLvQ

Please show us where the luck was because it sure looks to me like Burrow made a great throw and Chase made a great catch.

And since it looks, to most of us, like a great play from a QB to a WR and not the result of a busted play or broken coverage, I can only surmise by your continued attempts to label this play as "lucky" that you don't think Burrow is a good enough QB to make that throw and the Chase is not a good enough WR to make that catch. 

Related question for you: when Justin Tucker set the record for longest FG in NFL history, you considered that lucky correct? After all, it's never been done before in NFL history and as this post of yours indicates, if it's rarely been done, that makes it lucky. 

Yep, that 3rd and 27 conversion was a great pre-snap read, great call, great pass and great catch. To call it 'luck' is to purposely discount all of that for some strange reason.

[*PhilHos*]

(08-26-2022, 04:45 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Yep, that 3rd and 27 conversion was a great pre-snap read, great call, great pass and great catch. To call it 'luck' is to purposely discount all of that for some strange reason.

Seriously. Like, argue that our playoff run was fueled by last minute plays as lucky, ok. I don't agree but there's some logic there. Arguing that a 3rd and 27 conversion that was literally a great play by 2 of our greatest players as lucky is just absurd to me.

[fredtoast]

(08-26-2022, 04:34 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: You've had some extremely strange takes in this thread...especially considering you're always accusing other posters of 'creating' things to be negative about. You've spent this entire thread trying to discredit what the Bengals accomplished last year, with some of the worst arguments I've ever seen in Jungle Noise...which is saying something. 

First of all let me remind everyone that I am very high on the Bengals this year.  We should have an elite offense and a defense that might not be elite, but should be plenty good enough to win a championship with this offense.

As for last season, all I am doing is pointing out that if any other team had done what the Bengals did last year you all would be saying "They just got hot at the end of the season, and they just won by the skin of their teeth.  They have sucked for years. I need to see more consistency before I will consider them an elite team." 

You all may not like it that a lot of analysts still question the Bengals.  But they would do the same for any other long-time loser who did what we did last year.

[*Synric*]

(08-26-2022, 04:45 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Yep, that 3rd and 27 conversion was a great pre-snap read, great call, great pass and great catch. To call it 'luck' is to purposely discount all of that for some strange reason.

What is the old saying?

"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity." 

[Bengalholic]

(08-26-2022, 04:50 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Seriously. Like, argue that our playoff run was fueled by last minute plays as lucky, ok. I don't agree but there's some logic there. Arguing that a 3rd and 27 conversion that was literally a great play by 2 of our greatest players as lucky is just absurd to me.

Even with the playoff run though, it came down to players making critical plays at critical moments. The team that makes those plays at the end of games wins, the teams that don't go home. The SB was a perfect example. Was Donald's game ending play a fluke or luck? No, it was a great play that saved the game for the Rams. That's how football works and what a certain poster in this thread is failing to comprehend or is just outright ignoring. 

[*bfine32*]

fredtoast Wrote:But, yeah, luck has nothing to do with it at all.

Dismissive, condescending tone:

(08-26-2022, 04:50 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Seriously. Like, argue that our playoff run was fueled by last minute plays as lucky, ok. I don't agree but there's some logic there. Arguing that a 3rd and 27 conversion that was literally a great play by 2 of our greatest players as lucky is just absurd to me.

Refusal to acknowledge evidence:
Seeming obliviousness:

[fredtoast]

(08-26-2022, 04:45 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Yep, that 3rd and 27 conversion was a great pre-snap read, great call, great pass and great catch. To call it 'luck' is to purposely discount all of that for some strange reason.

(08-26-2022, 04:50 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Seriously. Like, argue that our playoff run was fueled by last minute plays as lucky, ok. I don't agree but there's some logic there. Arguing that a 3rd and 27 conversion that was literally a great play by 2 of our greatest players as lucky is just absurd to me.

This is the last I am going to mention it, but if it all just talent and coaching we should be doing it every time this year.

So I guess we will see who was right.

[*PhilHos*]

(08-26-2022, 04:55 PM)fredtoast Wrote: As for last season, all I am doing is pointing out that if any other team had done what the Bengals did last year you all would be saying "They just got hot at the end of the season, and they just won by the skin of their teeth.  They have sucked for years. I need to see more consistency before I will consider them an elite team." 

No, you're not. Maybe at first, that's what you were doing, but you were literally arguing that a specific play was the result of luck.

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-26-2022, 04:05 PM)fredtoast Wrote: In 2021 Joe Burrow was the first QB to convert on a 3rd and 25+ since 2017.  137 pass attempts by the greatest QBs in the game over the last 4 years and only one first down conversion.

But, yeah, luck has nothing to do with it at all. 

And since we have the same coaches and BETTER talent this year, I am looking forward to the Bengal taking advantage of that unusual ability to convert on 3rd-and-25+.

[Bengalholic]

(08-26-2022, 05:00 PM)fredtoast Wrote: This is the last I am going to mention it, but if it all just talent and coaching we should be doing it every time this year.

So I guess we will see who was right.

You do realize that there are many factors at play in a 3rd and extremely long that play in the defenses favor. It requires perfect execution to convert in that kind of situation, or a something crazy like a defender falling down and leaving a wide open receiver.

Why is it so hard for you to admit the obvious...that is was a great pass and catch in that particular situation that resulted in a critical conversion? It's not going to go that way every time, but in that instance, it was perfect execution.

[*PhilHos*]

(08-26-2022, 05:00 PM)fredtoast Wrote: This is the last I am going to mention it, but if it all just talent and coaching we should be doing it every time this year.

Why? Do we not play against other teams? Do we not play against other teams that also have talent and coaching?

So by your logic, every record breaking play, every big play is the result of luck. Because otherwise, they'd happen all the time, right?

Again, I ask, where on that play was the luck? 

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-26-2022, 05:00 PM)fredtoast Wrote: This is the last I am going to mention it, but if it all just talent and coaching we should be doing it every time this year.

So I guess we will see who was right.

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-26-2022, 05:11 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: You do realize that there are many factors at play in a 3rd and extremely long that play in the defenses favor. It requires perfect execution to convert in that kind of situation, or a something crazy like a defender falling down and leaving a wide open receiver.

Why is it so hard for you to admit the obvious...that is was a great pass and catch in that particular situation that resulted in a critical conversion? It's not going to go that way every time, but in that instance, it was perfect execution.

An all out blitz, leaving one of the top WRs in single coverage helps. Add in a guy like Burrow with his accuracy...

I can only surmise, luck.

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-26-2022, 05:13 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Why? Do we not play against other teams? Do we not play against other teams that also have talent and coaching?

So by your logic, every record breaking play, every big play is the result of luck. Because otherwise, they'd happen all the time, right?

Again, I ask, where on that play was the luck? 

Stop with your silliness. Justin Tucker made a 66 yard field goal once, which means he will do it every single time now. 

[fredtoast]

(08-26-2022, 04:57 PM)Bengalholic Wrote:  Was Donald's game ending play a fluke or luck? No, it was a great play that saved the game for the Rams. That's how football works and what a certain poster in this thread is failing to comprehend or is just outright ignoring. 

False equivalency. 

Aaron Donald has been making that same play consistently for years.  So, no, it did not look like a fluke when he made that play.  But none of the best QBs in the league have converted a 3rd-and-25+ in the last 4 years before Burrow did it.

Same thing with our defense "shutting down" Mahommes for the second half of the Championship game.  Our pass defense finished in the bottom half of the league in the regular season.  Mahommes had burnt them for a 113.1 rating in the regular season and a ridiculous (almost perfect) 149.9 rating in the first half of the Championship game.  That does not look like a great defense shutting down a great player with "talent and coaching" because that same "talent and coaching" had been there all year with much different results.  

[*PhilHos*]

(08-26-2022, 05:16 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Stop with your silliness. Justin Tucker made a 66 yard field goal once, which means he will do it every single time now. 

Wrong! He was lucky! No one has ever hit one from 66 yards during a game before, ergo, he was lucky to make it! Leg strength and accuracy, taking the wind into consideration; NONE of those made a difference. It was all pure luck!

[*rfaulk34*]

(08-26-2022, 05:18 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Wrong! He was lucky! No one has ever hit one from 66 yards during a game before, ergo, he was lucky to make it! Leg strength and accuracy, taking the wind into consideration; NONE of those made a difference. It was all pure luck!

So...if no one had ever done it...it should have been impossible!! 

[*PhilHos*]

(08-26-2022, 05:17 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Aaron Donald has been making that same play consistently for years.  So, no, it did not look like a fluke when he made that play.  But none of the best QBs in the league have converted a 3rd-and-25+ in the last 4 years before Burrow did it.

It's a simple question. I linked the video containing the specific play. Please, show us all where the luck was. I don't care that your stat shows that Burrow is the greatest QB in the last 4 years. Being the only one to do it doesn't make it luck. Show me where on that play the luck was.

[*PhilHos*]

(08-26-2022, 05:24 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: So...if no one had ever done it...it should have been impossible!! 

That's how you know it's because of luck!

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-26-2022, 04:42 PM)PhilHos Wrote: How many of those were legitimate attempts to pick up the first down vs little screen passes or dump offs?


Here's the play:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0kWUZ6PLvQ

Please show us where the luck was because it sure looks to me like Burrow made a great throw and Chase made a great catch.

And since it looks, to most of us, like a great play from a QB to a WR and not the result of a busted play or broken coverage, I can only surmise by your continued attempts to label this play as "lucky" that you don't think Burrow is a good enough QB to make that throw and the Chase is not a good enough WR to make that catch. 

Related question for you: when Justin Tucker set the record for longest FG in NFL history, you considered that lucky correct? After all, it's never been done before in NFL history and as this post of yours indicates, if it's rarely been done, that makes it lucky. 

Just a fantastic post Phil. Well done. Fred be owned.